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5 Reasons Apple Stock Is Still a Buy, According to Citi
By: Barron's | July 13, 2022
Apple won’t escape an economic downturn unscathed. A slowdown in consumer spending and ongoing supply-chain challenges will weigh heavily on the company’s June earnings report. But that doesn’t mean investors should give up on the stock, according to Citi.
“Despite macro woes, we continue to see several positive drivers for Apple’s products/services,” wrote Citi analyst Jim Suva in a research note.
Suva outlined five reasons investors should look past the stock’s recent lagging performance.
For one, he believes an iPhone 14 model could still be on track for a September release, which could be a short-term catalyst for the stock. Other product launches, such as the long-awaited artificial reality headsets and the Apple Car, could energize investors. Those products could be ready for market as early as 2025, Suva added.
In the long run, Apple (ticker: AAPL ) will benefit from a consumer shift away from lower-priced competitors toward mid-end and premium products, such as the ones Apple offers, Suva wrote. The company also could capitalize on expanding its services segment, which has the potential for stickier, more regular revenue, he added.
Apple’s current share repurchase program — which totals $90 billion, or about 4% of the company’s market capitalization — will continue lending support to the stock’s value, he added. The $90 billion buyback program comes on the heels of $81 billion in fiscal 2021. In the past, Suva has argued that an accelerated repurchase program should make the company a more attractive investment and help lift its stock price.
That said, Apple will still need to navigate a host of challenges in the near term. Suva predicts that supply-chain problems could drive a revenue impact of between $4 billion to $8 billion. Worsening headwinds from the company’s Russia exit and fluctuating foreign exchange rates are also weighing on growth, he added.
“Macroeconomic conditions or shifting consumer demand could cause greater-than-expected deceleration or contraction in the handset and smartphone markets,” Suva wrote. “This would negatively impact Apple’s prospects for growth.”
The analyst trimmed his price target on the stock to $175 from $200, but maintained a Buy rating. Most analysts remain bullish on the shares, with 74% rating them a Buy and 23% rating them a Hold, according to FactSet. Only one analyst, or 2.3%, rated them Underweight.
Apple was up 0.3% to $146.26 in premarket trading on Wednesday.
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Apple (AAPL) generates more revenue per employee than $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, or $AMZN
By: Markets & Mayhem | July 14, 2022
• $AAPL generates more revenue per employee than $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, or $AMZN.
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Apple income statement from last quarter's earnings analyzed
By: Markets & Mayhem | July 14, 2022
• $AAPL income statement from last quarter's earnings analyzed.
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Apple (AAPL) PT Lowered to $166.00
By: MarketBeat | July 12, 2022
• Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL - Get Rating) had its price target decreased by stock analysts at Barclays from $167.00 to $166.00 in a research note issued on Wednesday, MarketBeat Ratings reports. The firm presently has an "equal weight" rating on the iPhone maker's stock. Barclays's price objective indicates a potential upside of 13.81% from the company's previous close...
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Is Apple’s Eddy Cue About to Get NFL’s Sunday Ticket?
By: Puck.news | July 14, 2022
• As I learned at Sun Valley, and in subsequent conversations, the deal will likely come in significantly higher than $2 billion a year.
Of all the mega-success machines who roam the annual Allen & Company conference in Sun Valley—the tech titans and Hollywood executives, the politicians and TV personalities, the investors and bankers—the most curious and intriguing cohort are always, in my view, the sports owners and commissioners: Roger Goodell and Robert Kraft, Adam Silver and Don Garber, John Henry and Bill DeWitt. Though quite distinct from one another in stature and temperament, they move around the village grounds with a similar, unmistakable self-confidence, comfortable in the knowledge that they are gatekeepers to the media industry’s most coveted and enduring asset: live sports.
Observing them all in the wild last week, I couldn’t help but think of the integral role they will play in the fortunes of the major tech and media companies going forward. Live sports, particularly football, has long been the linchpin of the entire broadcast and cable ecosystem. The most popular show on television every year is Sunday Night Football, followed by Thursday Night Football, followed by Monday Night Football. And now the value of live sports has become even more apparent in recent months as legacy media executives, spooked by the Netflix selloff and a market recalibration, take solace in their vast reserves of linear revenue. As I reported last week, Disney chief Bob Chapek has decided to scrap plans for an ESPN spin-off for precisely this reason.
Meanwhile, cash-rich tech firms like Amazon and Apple continue to see live sports as a way to dramatically amplify audiences for their streaming services. Earlier this year, Amazon landed exclusive rights to Thursday Night Football for the next decade.
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Breaking: @SpeakerPelosi reports selling $1MM - $5MM worth of Visa $V, sells $AAPL calls, and exercises $NVDA calls
By: congresstrading.com | July 14, 2022
• Breaking: @SpeakerPelosi reports selling $1MM - $5MM worth of Visa $V, sells $AAPL calls, and exercises $NVDA calls.
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Apple Bull sweepers hitting the October $165 calls with SIZE today
By: TrendSpider | July 13, 2022
• $AAPL Bull sweepers hitting the October $165 calls with SIZE today.
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AAPL Larger Block *Size* 1,300,000 Shares @147.68 #darkpool Activity Coming in
By: Money Flow Mel | July 12, 2022
• $AAPL Larger Block *Size* 1,300,000 Shares @147.68 #darkpool Activity Coming in.
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Hi TU, Re: the time to add to AAPL positions..............................
It's not often AAPL drops enough to trigger buying in my portfolio.
I've struggled to find a good time to make significant additions to this holding, choosing instead to be conservative and not allowing risk to expand too much without cash expanding, too.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Larger Block *Size* 2,739,000 Shares @144.87 #darkpool Activity Coming in to AAPL
By: Money Flow Mel | July 11, 2022
• Larger size #darkpool activity coming in to $AAPL.
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Cowen Sees Apple Results in Line With Consensus on Healthy iPhone and Mac Demand
By: Investing.com | July 11, 2022
Cowen analyst Krish Sankar said the firm believes Apple will report its June quarter results in line with consensus despite supply shortages.
The analyst, who has an Outperform rating and $200 price target on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares, said their fieldwork suggests "NT iPhone builds remain stable (46M/51M in Jun/Sep Q)," however, they have lowered their "CY23 unit view on potential macro risks."
"In our recession scenario analysis, we estimate $5.69/$5.06 EPS assuming HW units are -10%/-20%. AAPL remains a defensive name given strong FCF and capital returns," wrote Sankar. "We expect AAPL to report Jun '22 quarter (F3Q) in line with consensus on healthy iPhone and Mac demand and despite ongoing component supply constraints and pandemic lockdowns in China."
The analyst previously stated that Apple's revenue could be impacted by $4 billion to $8 billion from the challenges.
However, Cowen is revising its forecasts due to possible near-term improvements in the shortages, strong China demand, and a broader macro slowdown.
"We raise Jun Q iPhone shipment estimate (leads to overall Jun Q revenue +1% Y/Y vs prior -1%) based on recent fieldwork but trim Dec Q and CY23 numbers assuming macro slowing will affect premium smartphone demand."
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$AAPL Nice break out this week, leading. Markets always trade better when this one strong
By: Options Mike | July 9, 2022
• $AAPL Nice break out this week, leading. Markets always trade better when this one strong. 148-150 is a mess of resistance.
Up 5 Days in a row needs a rest now.
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Apple (AAPL) The target for this multi week bounce is the 40 week MA at 158.53
By: CyclesFan | July 9, 2022
• $AAPL closed above its 10 week MA which confirms that it made a weekly cycle low in mid June. The target for this multi week bounce is the 40 week MA at 158.53.
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Apple Consolidating on top of the 8/21 EMA cloud after this week's massive breakout
By: TrendSpider | July 8, 2022
• $AAPL Consolidating on top of the 8/21 EMA cloud after this week's massive breakout.
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Can Apple Stock Lead a Stock Market Rebound?
By: TheStreet | July 7, 2022
• Apple stock is now up in four straight sessions. Here's how it can continue to lead the market higher.
As the summer days tick by, the bulls are slowly but surely trying to regain control of the stock market.
They will have a hard time doing so without Apple (AAPL) on board.
Apple is the largest company in the market, with a $2.35 trillion market cap. That’s roughly $350 billion larger than the next largest company, Microsoft (MSFT).
For what it’s worth, we recently dissected both of these companies, concluding that they — along with Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG) — were in a league of their own.
Sometimes all you need is a bear market to separate the cream from the rest of the crop.
The S&P 500 is working on its fourth straight daily gain, and as it’s currently up 1.4% on the day, it appears poised to notch that victory. If it can do so, it will mark its first close above the 21-day moving average in a month.
Apple stock completed such a feat on Tuesday -- but iti had previously closed above the 21-day as recently as June 27.
Now with Apple powering higher, the bulls are going to need the tech giant to continue its rally if they want the rest of the market to enjoy a sustained move up — even if it is just a bear-market rally.
Trading Apple Stock
Daily chart of Apple stock.
Chart courtesy of TrendSpider.com
Last week, Apple stock rallied to the 61.8% retracement of the recent range and failed. That’s also when Apple last closed above the 21-day moving average, but it did so in sloppy fashion and dropped back below it a day later.
After four robust days, Apple stock has not only cleared last week’s high and the 21-day, but it's now trading up into the 10-week and 50-day moving averages.
These are two very key measures that I think can determine the short-term direction for the stock.
Notice that both the 10-week and 50-day moving averages have been notable resistance over the past few months. If Apple can clear these measures, it creates more upside potential. If it’s rejected, that may indicate the market needs a rest, too, and/or will also struggle with these measures.
If Apple stock clears the 10-week and 50-day moving averages, it puts the $149 to $150 area in play. Not only was $150 the first-quarter low, it was resistance in the second quarter. Additionally, it’s where the 161.8% upside extension comes into play from the current rally.
This would be a really reasonable upside target should Apple continue to exhibit short-term momentum.
If Apple is instead rejected from the 10-week and 50-day moving averages, I want to see the 10-day and 21-day moving averages act as support.
A close below $138.50 does not bode well for the bulls in the short term, putting $133 in play, then the 2022 low near $129.
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Apple to release new 'Lockdown Mode' as it battles spyware firms
By: Stephen Nellis | July 6, 2022
(Reuters) - Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) on Wednesday said it plans to release a new feature called "Lockdown Mode" this fall that aims to add a new layer of protection for human rights advocates, political dissidents and other targets of sophisticated hacking attacks.
The move comes after at least two Israeli firms have exploited flaws in Apple's software to remotely break into iPhones without the target needing to click or tap anything. NSO Group, the maker of the "Pegasus" software that can carry out such attacks, has been sued by Apple and placed on a trade blacklist by U.S. officials.
"Lockdown Mode" will come to Apple's iPhones, iPads and Macs this fall and turning it on will block most attachments sent to the iPhone's Messages app. Security researchers believe NSO Group exploited a flaw in how Apple handled message attachments. The new mode will also block wired connections to iPhones when they are locked. Israeli firm Cellebrite has used such manual connections to access iPhones.
Apple representatives said that they believe sophisticated attacks the new feature is designed to fight - called "zero click" hacking techniques - are still relatively rare and that most users will not need to active the new mode.
Spyware companies have argued they sell high-powered technology to help governments thwart national security threats. But human rights groups and journalists have repeatedly documented the use of spyware to attack civil society, undermine political opposition, and interfere with elections.
To help harden the new feature, Apple said it will pay up to $2 million for each flaw that security researchers can find in the new mode, which Apple representatives said was the highest such "bug bounty" offered in the industry.
Apple also said it is making a $10 million grant, plus any possible proceeds from its lawsuit against NSO Group, to groups that find, expose and work to prevent targeted hacking. Apple said the grant will go to the Dignity and Justice Fund established by the Ford Foundation, one of the largest private foundations in the United States.
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Apple (AAPL) Is A Strong BUY Now, Here's Why
By: Tom Bowley | July 6, 2022
In case you haven't followed my work, I was very bearish U.S. equities as we opened 2022. I didn't wait to see the carnage to tell you that there was carnage. I predicted the carnage before we ever saw it. Included in those bearish predictions was a wild prediction about Apple, Inc. (AAPL) on January 4th, 2022. I suggested that AAPL could fall 20-30%. You can check out what I wrote in the following article, "The Great Divide Presents Big Problems....and a Wild Prediction for Apple (AAPL)". After you read the article, make sure you "subscribe" to my Trading Places blog below the article. If you provide StockCharts.com your name and email address in the space provided, all of my Trading Places blog articles will be sent directly to your inbox as soon as my articles are published. That way, you won't miss another one.
In my January 7th ChartWatchers article, I published a chart of AAPL, showing the history of significant declines in its past and, once again, suggesting that AAPL could see a selloff of 20-30%. I went on to show a chart that would illustrate what AAPL would look like if it were to fall 35% - as it did in previous down cycles. Here's the chart I showed then, with the subsequent 2022 market action in the chart as well:
Now REMEMBER, this chart was provided in early January at the market top. There was no Monday morning quarterbacking here. There are a lot of perma-bull AAPL fans out there that criticized me at the time. But I'm sure they wish they had sold back then now.
So what's my current thinking on AAPL? I LOVE IT! Could it move lower? Sure, but its history suggests that we buy these types of corrections. AAPL reached a low of 129.04 on June 16th, which represented a 29.27% decline off of its all-time high of 182.44 on January 4th, 2022. There's a historical component that makes AAPL very compelling right now. Since the S&P 500 broke out to new all-time highs on April 10, 2013 (clearing tops in 2000 and 2007), AAPL's best two consecutive calendar months for relative performance is July and August. You don't have to believe me, just look at this seasonal chart:
Finally, let's take a quick look at the positive divergence (slowing selling momentum) that's printed on AAPL's daily chart:
Note that AAPL flashed a negative divergence to support the notion of slowing buying momentum and the bearish theory back in January.
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Who doesn't like a nice Apple Bottom? Lol! Bought calls today!
Bullish stochastics divergent buy signal rarely fails, bottom is in at 129 imo
Apple Daily. Need to see a break of 144 to negate the potential bearish triangle
By: ReciKnows | July 5, 2022
• $AAPL Daily. Need to see a break of 144 to negate the potential bearish triangle. Failure to break and it sees new low's.
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Apple: Analysts Divided On Stock’s Outlook As Demand Weakens
By: Investing.com | July 5, 2022
• The most significant risk for Apple’s earnings outlook is falling demand for hardware and services due to worsening macroeconomic conditions
• So far, analysts are divided on whether Apple will face the full brunt of a possible recession
• JPMorgan reiterated its overweight rating on Apple, saying in a note that the tech giant will remain resilient
Having fallen around 21.6% this year, the largest company in the US, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), has fared much better than most of its mega-cap technology peers amid the ongoing market rout.
AAPL Weekly Chart
Several reasons indicate that the iPhone maker is in a good position to weather the current macroeconomic storm. The Cupertino, California-based company has a massive user base, a remarkable ability to pass on higher costs to its relatively wealthy customers, and a massive cash pile—which can lead to share buybacks and increased dividends.
Furthermore, Apple bulls argue that demand for iPhones, wearables, and other gadgets and services remains strong. Market forecasts for the company’s flagship iPhone sales have hovered closer to 240 million units for this year, driven by an expected significant update to the phone in the fall.
Inflationary Risks
While the outlook remains positive, increasing macroeconomic risks could derail the company's optimism. The biggest one is how Apple consumers will react to inflationary pressures—something they haven't experienced before.
The last time the inflation rate was this high, Apple had been a public company for less than a year, and its best-selling product was the Apple II home computer. In May, the annual inflation rate hit 8.6%, the highest level since 1981, with other major economies facing a similar trend.
That is perhaps why the analyst community remains divided on Apple’s earnings outlook. While most still rate Apple stock as a “buy” in an Investing.com poll of 48 analysts, some have trimmed their price targets in recent weeks.
AAPL Consensus Estimates
Source: Investing.com
Earnings Estimates
Over the past three months, analysts have progressively cut their estimates for Apple’s fiscal third-quarter earnings by 7.8%. Revenue projections are down about 4.2% over the same period.
KeyBanc Capital Markets sees signs of softer US demand, citing credit card data spending. Others have raised concerns about the pace of revenue growth at the company’s App Store, with Morgan Stanley adding that this poses risks to its estimates for Apple’s Services business.
Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MU), the largest US maker of memory semiconductors used in computers and smartphones, told investors last week that it’s seeing a slowdown in demand and expecting its customers in the PC and smartphone businesses to adjust their inventories.
If inflation starts pressuring Apple customers, they could begin to put off their iPhone upgrades hurting the company’s sales projections for this year.
Apple also faces increasing costs from global logistics, rising employee salaries, and supply constraints related to the China shutdowns this year. In April, the company told investors that the combination of headwinds could result in a revenue decrease of around $8 billion.
On the other hand, JPMorgan reiterated its overweight rating on Apple, saying in a note last Friday that the tech giant will remain resilient due to its already conservative future guidance provided during last Q2 earnings release. The note added:
“Contrary to popular investor sentiment and expectations of downside to estimates on account of a slowdown of consumer spending and FX headwinds, we believe near-term estimates are instead resilient relative to the conservative guide already issued by the company on the last earnings call.
[...]We see upside on several aspects of the business as well as financials that remain underappreciated by investors, namely the transformation of the company to Services, growth in the installed base, technology leadership, and optionality around capital deployment—all of which together lead us to expect double-digit earnings growth and a modest re-rating for the shares.”
JPMorgan also maintained a December price target of $200 on Apple, implying a roughly 43% upside potential from the current price.
Bottom line
It’s hard to predict how badly the current adverse macroeconomic environment will hurt Apple sales in the short run. Still, Apple is a reliable company well-positioned to outperform in a challenging operating environment.
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