Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I realize this is comparing apples to oranges, however, it has to lead one to wonder if olive oil uses some of the same pathways as EPA.
This was a VERY long study (observational) - 28 years. Which also helps support the belief that a very long-term study on EPA consumption would lead to very positive ALZ outcomes.
I hope Denner will use it to interest a BP in using Vascepa as an adjunct drug for all cancer
treatments or therapies.
quite a lot actually. I loaded up on the Friday morning prior to the R-It announcement. I was in a buy and hold mode until the false upside FDA announcement breakout. I then became a trader. I've never shorted the stock. I only traded reaction counter-trend pullups to falling resistance. I was on the sidelines for the Du announcement.
R-IT entry
I am in love with IPE but my TA trumps that love affair... always!
Then you must have traded very successfully on those two major events..... do tell how much profit that you pocketed .
Most of you know that the results from the PREPARE RCT (PRevention Using EPA Against coloREctal) was released last week at: https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04216251
Personal communication with the PI informed me that a peer reviewed publication would be forthcoming before year end. In the meantime, I prepared this slide to illustrate the Primary Outcome Measure: Change in the Marine Omega-3 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acid (MO3PUFA) Composition in Colorectal Tissues as a Result of the AMR101 (VASCEPA) Treatment. [Time Frame: 8-12 weeks]
It is believed that EPA acts as a “chemopreventive” agent to reduce the risk of CRC in patients with a history of CRC. These results look impressive to me. I guess we’ll wait for the expert’s opinions.
Really? LOL. Then you failed to read my post.
FFS, you are starting to lose some credibility if you fail to admit that what you have highlighted did not predict what was to come, these strong moves occurred after the news, then a new pattern developed as a result of the new trading norms.
SND, just because he might have different thoughts about how to use $50M, doesn't mean he doesn't want to make money in the stock.
I have not been a huge Denner supporter, but I still want Amarin to do well, want Denner to do well, and for me to make money.
If they are going to do the buyback regardless, then he's obviously going to hope for the best outcome.
These ideas are not mutually exclusive.
Ramfan, again, IMO you are wrong.
FFS, the point I'm making is that of timing.... first let me say, I'm a fan of your technicals but I also know a signal of say bouncing off a top because it couldn't break through, could be smashed through a day later with unexpected news such as a REDUCE-It result or a Du ruling.... the technicals do not see that coming. That is unless there is a leak which can show in the technicals
Wow !!! I am speechless. The person who is so against Amarin’s move to buy back 50M worth of share and has been constantly beating the drum voicing his strong opposition to this move by the management, has bought share with the sole hope of UK court approving the buy back ( the only catalyst) he can see.
Wow !!! That definitely goes a long way to build credibility and expecting people believe in your ridiculous theory of using the buy-back money to run another trial for Germany, France and Italy.
Really ???
FFS. re this post
Ramfan, how so? Please explain
good or bad news simply moves prices to extreme edges; a place where very profitable trades happen.
good news can elevate a stock price to overbought levels in a hurry. If unsupported by volume, those prices quickly meet supply and a retracement ensues.
Bad news can produce a mirror image of the above.
TA is very good at sorting out synchronization between technical and fundamental strength. Its even better at identifying bullish or bearish divergences between the two - which lead to squeeze reversals.
So no, respectfully (IMO), your statement is 180 wrong.
must keep my statements in context Rosie. I did not predict "new lows". I predicted a new yearly low (read the linked post again).
The yearly low at the time was .8015/ share. Since my post the stock has traced a low of .8110, less than 1 cent from the yearly low. I was wrong by a penny LOL.
Yes, technicals are good to use as trade indicators but any news good or bad will throw them out of whack for a time so it's best to pair fundamentals with technicals to get the best picture.
No argument there and fly fishing obviously has considerable knowledge of TA, but when hundreds of predictions are made you can easily pick and choose which look prescient. Can’t remember exactly and I am on a cruise ship without much access but I think Fly got screwed on his prediction for new lows as Amarin came out with news that obviated his call, or at least the reaction to the news.
That's a fairly sober and seemingly accurate post of prospects, except for "Reversal of the Du-saster." That cannot happen. Appeals process is long over.
Thanks for the clarification.
rosemontbomber
I think we did go down to .85 which has to be close to the low before turning up to today's price. Just saying.
Michael
I think there are a number of reasons for a lack of BP BO interest in AMRN…
On-going litigation
Slow sales growth
Negative EPS
Price erosion in U.S.
Perceived inability to get a return on investment
Tight credit conditions
No clinical trials to support better outcomes in cancer patients
It’s not yet for sale. (Kind of the same theory behind why you wash your car before you trade it in for a new one).
With that, brighter days could be in AMRN’s future…
Expanding to additional EU markets
+EPS
Share Buyback
Brave study results
Reversal of the Du-saster
Easing of credit conditions
Etc…
I feel it will remain over a dollar for a couple of days and then will again go below dollar. This looks more like an orchestrated rise to one dollar to avoid the delisting formality from kicking in. The real rise will be much faster with lots of volume.
I am not done with buying, so won’t be sad if it comes below the dollar again. If it does not then also no complain. I have enough in the game for this ticker already.
Do you mean his post at end of April or the one a couple of weeks prior that predicted new lows?
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174266900
JRoon71
May close over the 1$ threshold today looks like flyfishingstocks was right !
Michael
You choose whether you want to sell AMRN at Rolls Royce price or Toyota price.
Patents aren't exclusivity. Regulatory Exclusivity is a government issued monopoly for a period of time to reward drug development. Patents are only as good as your legal team as any Amarin investor should know.
I think the EU patent is now good till 2039 whereas the current US patent is good till 2029.
Nah. You only get one "+1" extension with the EMA and it has to be filed and approved in the initial 8 year data exclusivity window. The system is designed to stop drug companies from doing what you describe... issue endless minor indications to try and lock up exclusivity forever. They want generics on the market.
Strange price action on such low volume today. Seems to indicate that shorts have backed off a bit.
Yes, 5 new indications = 5 years of new exclusivity. Furthermore, new patents for the new indications could gain 20 years patent protection for each new indication.
CBB, I don't think the issue is that BP's are not interested in Vascepa, per se.
The issue is a business one. Currently too many headwinds and too much risk. The U.S. market is effectively lost until something else happens, and the three biggest markets in the EU currently will not approve reimbursement for V. A BP likely doesn't want to take the risk that approvals never happen. So everyone essentially waits until those approvals come through. That's my guess, anyway.
There's also the issue that not everyone within the science and medical fields agree on the efficacy of EPA. And if the Chief Medical Officer at a given BP is in the Nissen camp, then we are SOL.
None of this is insurmountable. It's just going to take more time to shore up some of these issues, and lower the risk on Amarin as an acquisition candidate.
Zip, The number one mystery with Amarin for me is why no BP
seems to be interested in Vascepa as an adjunct drug for any
& all cancer drugs, treatments, & therapies. Surely Alex Denner
has to be aware of the potential and I would think it would be a
major selling point in attempting a BO. Imagine the potential
benefit that Vascepa cold bring if a company such as Merck adopted
Vascepa for use with Keytruda. My belief is that Vascepa use with
any & all cancer therapies would result in better outcomes for the
patients. Why is this something that is not more widely discussed?
(Perhaps Alex Denner is doing this behind the scenes but does not
want it disclosed for commercial reasons?)
I agree and still believe that Lr-Et-EPA/MND-2119 is going to be in play at some point. Not sure if the idea is to wait and propose it to a BP to have them roll with it. But I would feel much more confident if a BP rolled it out, vs. Amarin doing it.
Just wish they could provide us with some indication of where they are going with it.
I am still awaiting more news from Amarin, fleshing out any new developments in the patenting of LR-Et-EPA or any future plans to market it.
Lymphoma is an all too common, potentially deadly cancer...and this disease could benefit from a treatment with an EPA drug... LR-Et-EPA could be a safe and relatively inexpensive treatment for Lymphoma...along with current treatments...such as Chemo, Antibody drug conjugates and Car-T therapies, which are all not only very toxic, but also very expensive.
I guess what I am trying to figure out is if AMRN were acquired by BP,
and they ran appropriate studies for new indications, lets say they were
able to achieve 5 new indications, would that add 5 years to exclusivity?
In other words how difficult would it be for a BP to continuously extent
exclusivity which would keep their revenues growing for an extended
period of time. Seems to me that any Eurocentric BP would use such
a strategy if they were confident of Vazkepa's effectiveness and utility.
Thanks North. I wonder what PFE's thoughts are of their involvement with V in Canada in the relationshiop through HLS. Do they view Vascepa as a successful drug to promote in the US or in the world? Are they better suited to sell V in EU than say Novo Nordisk who is more Europe centric?
I 'll state the obvious that everyone knows.
We need;
A positive response from the judges regarding the Hikma case to move
Italy and France on board in Europe. And of course Germany but that is 2025 timeline.
Buyback of shares
New indications for V
New US product in either packaging or Mochida product to fight generics
Probably more, but it seems to me that all of this will occur before EOY '24
Exclusivity and patent protection are two different things. New drugs are granted “Exclusivity” according to this formula:
8+2+1 = 8 years without anyone filing, 2 years before any application is looked at, and one additional year for any new indication.
Patents in Europe are generally good for 20 years but can be extended under certain circumstances.
Worth noting regarding Amarin's potential future sometime after early June:
".....In the same note, he listed his critiques of the Pfizer operation. Pfizer has "struggled until very recently" to develop biologic therapies, he wrote, and has failed to extend important cardiovascular businesses beyond its drugs Eliquis and Vyndaqel, whose patents will soon expire...."
Perhaps Dr. Baum and Dr. Denner met while at Morgan Stanley:
https://invest.ameritrade.com/grid/p/site#r=jPage/https://research.ameritrade.com/grid/wwws/research/stocks/news/article?c_name=invest_VENDOR&docKey=1-DN20240506002257-002257
Some say that PFE's M/A activity is not finished in light of Dr. Baum's new position, reporting directly to PFE's CEO, Dr. Bourla.
Does anyone know if EU patent exclusivity could be extended any further to beyond
the current 2039? (I thought in the past I read that certain new trials / new indications
could add on time.) Given that there are so many possible further indications for
Vascepa I wonder how much (if any) additional exclusivity status time could be
earned?
There are two kinds of migraines: chronic which you referenced (CM), and episodic (EM) which was studied in the previously mentioned publication. Those types would have separate indications and claims.
Anyone surprised 😀
Prior Art on EPA for Migraine Relief
Claims of any pending patent application would need to be drafted to distinguish from the related art that follows the blog article cited by DMC8. The blogger himself suggested Vascepa as a suitable med to use for migraines. What have Amarin researchers done with use of Vascepa in the art of treating migraines is my question….anything prior to the publication of the blog? Could Amarin as assignee use the blogger alone as the inventor? That might cost Amarin some $$$$.
Any pending applications?
They don't have any patent protection for use in treating migraines ( no method of action or composition of matter patents ) ...so I'm sure the generics and supplement Co's would love AMRN to waste time and $ on such a study .
Kiwi
Followers
|
1111
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
5
|
Posts (Total)
|
426309
|
Created
|
03/12/07
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators ziploc_1 zmanindc golf stud Number sleven |
AMARIN TICKER RELATED LINKS
Amarin Webpage
NASDAQ AMRN Quote
Y! Finance AMRN Landing Page
Seeking Alpha AMRN Landing Page
FinViz AMRN Landing Page
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |