Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[FlyFishingStocks]

Ramfan, again, IMO you are wrong.

I also know a signal of say bouncing off a top because it couldn't break through, could be smashed through a day later with unexpected news such as a REDUCE-It result or a Du ruling.... the technicals do not see that coming. That is unless there is a leak which can show in the technicals

The vast majority of the time, outcomes are forecasted by ticks on charts due in part to your last statement. Also, outcomes get priced in (FDA approval) and adverse technical response happens.

I have made numerous posts regarding big TA hints prior to big announcements. The two charts below show both price response to fundamental events, as well as the pattern/momentum setup leading up to those events.

Price response to fundamental events:


Technical price setup/response to these same events:

R-IT announcement event is highlighted green and the Du debacle is pink.

This chart clearly shows the prognosticative value of price pattern / momentum behavior leading up to R-IT, FDA approval, Du ruling, earnings announcements and each time trendline boundaries were stabbed at extremes.

Prior to R-IT we see prices trace a higher low and rise above an up trending 50day moving average days before the announcement (a strong indication of a bullish outcome).

The Pre-Du event was very clear. Prices had broken through the post R-IT trading channel, then failed a retest of that breakdown. The fact prices couldn't recapture the channel and were trading well below the down trending 50-day moving average was and indication bears knew what was to unfold.
As we all witnessed, the aftermath of Du's announcement pounded buy and hold investors via an Island Reversal followed by a viscous down trending channel into the abyss -- where we are today. The stock has fallen from the top of the Empire State Building and is just now trying to sit up, stand up... and possibly walk again.

In rare instances, news surprises technical setups. With AMRN though, each time, the technical checklist stacked pre-announcement probabilities in favor of what actually unfolded.