Alternative Path

[gdl]

One other historic divergence. the 2 year to 10 year inversion the most ever recorded. It is a good indicator of a recession within one year. How do we get a recession when today we hit an historic jobs market with 11 million jobs begging to be had. Only a dramatic development would cause such a shift. My tin helmet is getting water soaked. Perhaps i should throw it away.

It is a given that the CPI/PPI will be according to market expectations. So the call for a low on the 17th the final day the PPI comes out should not only cause a rally but a big one. How can a tame CPI/PPI start any drop from here?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Excerpt from AP report:
Futures got a lift after data showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196,000 for the week ended Feb. 4. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 190,000 claims for the latest week.

The data comes on the heels of a strong January employment report that rattled markets last week.

"This is a definite sign that weakness in the labor market is coming despite the huge job number last week," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities.

"There are so many companies that are laying off people and that eventually is going to weaken the job market. This for the Fed is too soon, but if this trend continues and inflation continues to head downwards, then the Fed's tune will change and a pause is not that far away."

I would call that wishful thinking and extreme narrow view.

[gdl]

The huge number of short term Bullish candlestick patterns seem to help slow down the drop today Orderly means no panic. The Crypto Trader is still shaking his head pounding the table that a crash for Bitcoin should already be here. The way Powell spoke I doubt we get a bad CPI/PPI report since he should have a preliminary clue already since it gest released on the 14th. If it is high the street will treat Powel's speech with contempt.

I see no danger of a steep drop yet. the moves have been very controlled. I do look for the DOW, the initial leader of the parade to recapture the highs it set on 11/30. I will watch that carefully since the rebound from October can still be considered a corrective bounce in a Bear Market. The timeline for a corrective move to resume the drop is 3 months. In that time it usually went from top of correction to bottom of next leg down. That places this current market at an extremely short timeframe to accomplish not only the start of a drop but the lows for that next leg down. It can only occur here if we are about to see a crash, knee jerk rebound and double bottom. I give the timeline for a crash, a 4 to 5 day 10 percent plus drop to occur no later than 2/22. I am also afraid that my "TELL" Bitcoin might just drop in line with the SPX and NOT tip us off by crashing early.

Why is this a precarious time and setup for a crash?
1 - China reopening surge. Inflationary
2 - Extremely tight labor market that is getting even more tight as we speak. Inflationary
3 - Confirmed tight labor market with the 11 million want ads. Inflationary
4 - January Manufacturing reversed from contraction to expansion. Inflationary
5 - Retail Sales. Holding up against inflation and spending in line with the increase in costs. (Not disinflationary)
6 - Bond yields crossing Fed Funds rate. Burry alludes to the convergence as a prelude to a steep drop.
7 - Speculative bets are still in favor and have NOT deflated, ala Bitcoin the Tulip Mania of our generation
8 - Extreme complacency and complete psychological turnaround from despair to hope to confidence we are in a new Bull Cycle.
9 - The Crypto Trader who predicted the path of Bitcoin in every instance has been frustrated that the sideways move is still here. His indicators has a huge discrepancy and bearish warning. So much so he has been saying a crash is literally here for the past week or so.
10 - Apparent reversal in the sliding dollar (anecdotal)
11 - new round of bond yields pushing them back up.
12 - Streets refusal to accept a longer bout of inflation and rate hikes. Market cherry picked the words from Powell to see it as positive.

My understanding of the modern day economy going back some 30 plus years is that low inflation and rising assets have buffered any speculative bets and increased the tolerance for such bets. I do not believe this economy could survive in a Fed Fund rate of 6% or larger. We busted right at that number before and see no reason it should not happen again.

[gdl]

The Crypto Trader is besides himself posting on YOUTUBE on a daily basis explaining the CRASH that wasn't and isn't but should already be here.

I myself am scratching my head over the response the street gave Powell. Almost a desperation in the move but i can't pinpoint anything amiss. Burry posted on the 3rd and today indicating "Danger Will Robinson". Me, I saw a possible crash starting next week but now doubt myself. is it possible that Powell has no clue if the coming data will be neutral or inflationary? The BIG ONE comes next Tuesday.

In a strange way this reminds me of the crash i did see coming. in that one there was no surprised and within 2 weeks of recognizing it it happened. Now I just don't know. A firm breakout from here over next 2 days would be helpful in clearing that up. There should be carry thru tomorrow. Bitcoin goes nowhere and it acts as if a 500 year old DOW stock.

I have a hard fast rule when trying to decide if we moved from a secular bear to bull. the first decent wave up has to be topped within 3 months of making that first wave top. 11/30 was the top for the DOW. The SPX already broke above. I should assume that by 2/28 or 3/1 we reach a new high. A corrective wave usually lasts 2 3/4 months and succumbs to the deeper drop. The DOW is the ONLY thing i see that holds me back.

[gdl]

Burry today put out another cryptic message and that makes the 3rd and 7th of this Month. I see the DOW hit it's top on 11/30. If this is indeed a new bull run we should exceed that top very soon. Non confirming bull so far. Irrational behavior by the street to cheer two more rate hikes even if it is 25 basis points. that means another 2 months of hikes. The odds doubled after his speech on having 2 rate hikes as a minimum. Wonder why the street cheered that? Seems SP500 will finish this earnings season with over a 3% loss.

Market is acting strange here. My imagination?

[gdl]

Powell did use the word DISINFLATION so he must know what he is talking about. The CPI/PPI due out next week should obviously be tame.
The move today was NOT what i expected. Yields going up because there is at least 2 more hikes. OIL going up. Everything and everyone is happy. if we do hold off on the crash till near the half point i expect the market would actually drop 25% in one day to one week. Now thats a sight not many will witness.

A RALLY induced purposely by Powell by using the disinflation word. Why would he do that? A blow off top? No idea and will not venture to guess.
BTW even 2 quarter point moves higher will kill this market. There will be some headline news between now and the 2nd rate hike.

[gdl]

Rah rah rally? Still expect a small DECLINE by end of day. the brokerage firms are at it again. they have just coined a new term "Transitory Disinflation". I do believe that is really inflation in disguise? They NOW see the current disinflation as not exactly lasting too much longer. But does that mean inflation? Nah, somewhere in between. Like not fat but not skinny. Like cross your fingers and prey this sucker doesn't SPIKE again.

[gdl]

A KEEPER! The fool posts his boasts just when the market is about to fall hard. i mean this guy has a great track record. the most famous was Bullish and Balanced after the Pandemic was known. You would think his bloated image of himself would get deflated after that huge mistake. Nah, he is a mechanical clock ticking his tune regardless. Now i KNOW time is near for a HUGE drop. Watch the CPI report. At a minimum it would rise .5%. we already have a report by the OIL industry why prices are headed higher. I really do shake my head when i present facts that show the tsunami that's coming in the form of INFLATION! This one will be along side his other famous pre-pandemic genius post. And people continue to follow him?

jxyzobrien
Re: keepsinvesting post# 27401
Monday, February 06, 2023 10:47:58 PM

Post# 27403 of 27409
go shopping
then GDL crawls out. I told him no more posts here.
He must spend 3-4 hours a day posting.
I really doubt he does any trades.
One thing is certain the bears are pathettic
Everyone still wants to short
day 2 down with no price contraction or volume

day 1 /ng rally
=====================================================================

Powell better stay crafty. he knows what's coming. I am sure of it. I suspect he stops using the term disinflation and keeps the message of more hikes to come till not needed talk. I would be very very very surprised if he even hints at disinflation. Whatever he does he should NOT mention China. He should NOT mention that in all of history we never had such full employment with a recession. The street i actually holding onto the recession fears. that supplies them with the notion the FED would not dare raise rates. JOLTS has not only been the driver of future employment trend it has to this day SPIKED back to it's old highs. If jobs are BEGGING to be hired how in heaven and earth can we all of a sudden turn into a nation of despair? Baby is this the perfect storm or what? the Friday report DOOMED this market and in short order even the moron on wack-off will pretend he saw it all along.

[gdl]

Multiple daily candlestick patterns that are bullish and they popped up in last few days. IF the recent pattern is confirmed we should have Wednesday and Thursday showing breakout moves. IF this pattern has already topped then obviously not.

On OIL - The market received a boost after Saudi Arabia unexpectedly raised its crude prices to Asia, signaling confidence in the demand outlook in the region, and particularly China, the world’s largest importer of crude. This news follows the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, stating over the weekend that there are some “first indications” from China that growth will accelerate quickly, seeing the Asian economic giant alone delivering around half of the forecast 2 million barrels a day increase in global oil demand this year.

As "I" have been saying using Common Sense. Duh, you lock up a few billion people for 2 years, they have a revolt, the government relents and frees them. There is NO WAY commodities stay where they are. there is NO WAY bond yields stay where they are. Powell can BS till the cows come home but reality will BITE! WHEN the street finally has that light bulb ah ha moment I believe they will be scrambling to sell, stampede style.

I am confident that THIS TIME the timeline will be short and condensed for a major drop. We should actually see a new revised spike move in inflation similar to the one that happened in December of 2021.

The breadth of market is dismal and has been for weeks, Bitcoin has flatlined with no indication of trouble. i can only HOPE that Bitcoin leads the way.

[gdl]

The BIG CPI REPORT DUE 2/14.

This is a prelude of what to expect

Nowcasts
Unfortunately, nowcasts for January inflation data are not too optimistic currently. The Cleveland Fed produces nowcasts of inflation data. These nowcasts are based on using readily available current prices to estimate the CPI report. These nowcasts see both headline and core CPI coming in at around 0.5% month-on-month in February’s CPI report. That would be above the monthly rate of inflation that we’ve seen since July 2022. However, in recent months these nowcasts have tended to overstate the rate of inflation, though their longer term track record is robust.

If that hold true and .5% is shown the street will not take it well. All the BS by Powell, like transitory, can only travel so far. His credibility is already shot if his "disinflation" talk turns into "inflation" talk. but hey he survived the transitory BS so why not any other.

[gdl]

Powell sparked the current rally by using the word DISINFLATION while both maintaining a stance that more rate hikes is needed but the employment market doesn't seem to spark higher inflation. In other words double talk intended to wait out the next direction. I would say the party is about over for Powell. The January numbers combined with China opening and the proof that retail sales was up 6% despite the rising inflation suggests he should KEEP HIS MOUTH SHUT on disinflation. In fact what he did was expand this huge bubble even further and made it more difficult to prevent a POP!

The street will of course get out of the speech what they want to hear and Powell has a great knack for pleasing everyone. I do believe NOW that he KNOWS the dangers of waiting to declare the inflation fight has moved from the sidelines to actively trying to stall it. But hey today we will know definitively despite his double talk.

The first shot along the bow was last Fridays shocker. Since Powell gets data points we do not he should have a decent idea how inflation is seen moving forward. TODAY will be the second shot.

[gdl]

Burry's SELL is a perma-bear hedge fund guy that sees things perhaps a bit differently than most and can be alarmist or miss the boat by a mile.
I just watched Bloomberg with the Citi Bank Global Analyst and he sees the first half of 2023 in similar fashion to the first 9 months of 2022. Now that's a BIG CALL and a BIG DROP!

I am relieved that i am not alone in my assessment. Finally getting big institutional managers seeing the same thing i do. And then there is the China explosion! I seemed to have been alone in the silly notion that pent up demand, despite the China policy of NOT giving money directly to consumers was going to cause a spike in INFLATION!

Read this piece by Bloomberg on China. it breaks down the how and why China is a ticking time bomb on inflation.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-01-21/china-s-reopening-comes-with-a-720-billion-inflation-bomb-new-economy-saturday

My Intuitive Common Sense approach has helped my make big profits and at times gets me in trouble when I stay fixated on an idea. Lets see how this plays out. But a replay of 2022 is going to cause a lot of giddy investors shaking their heads.

[gdl]

Immediate move ahead: Very rare we only have a 2 day slide. There should be one more but it should be shallower than todays. Around 4100 is my best guess. Now the interesting part. In the past we had a 2 day runup that easily exceeded the 3 day drop by a wide margin. That means tomorrow has to be a shallow down day followed by a pattern that suggests Wednesday and Thursday should close above 4195!

Now i believe we finished this wave up but if not that is what i expect. It also suggests a 10 to 11 day wave up that will take us till 2/22 and in the range of 4250.

Interesting to see if we stay in the channel or not. For now i believe 2/2 was the final high for a long time to come. Should find out this week.

[gdl]

Petty sure 2/2/2023 was the HIGH! Now we slip/slide while holding above support with one more attempt to reach those highs by 2/10/2023.

Will the next drop be a controlled one with no declaration of a continued bear or will it be definitive with a dramatic drop?

Interesting that Bitcoin has stayed in place for a long time now and The Crypto Trader is exasperated shouting quadruple divergence! Run for the hills! he already called for a crash by today the latest. not likely is it? the complacency over such a shattering discovery of huge employment gains, tightest labor market in decades and January spiked higher in manufacturing. Way higher. I also wonder why no one is equating the Chinese open similar to ours? It is like a pandemic from 100 years ago doesn't count and neither does the arguably second largest economy in the world?

the other factor? Well it has to do with earnings. the street seems to ignore the trend as every day announcements cause the GURUS to readjust their assumption on future growth. Better lower next 2 quarters and spike really high the last quarters numbers. You see no one can look out that far and it would be easy to accept because we want to accept it.

I pounded the table on the easy call, the pandemic. I pounded the table 14 months ago on the so called transitory inflation. it made no sense! yet the majority of the street saw a sliver of a hole and took that as the scenario going forward. it is obvious to me that inflation is here to stay. As long as the economy hold up. ONLY mass defaults and a real shakeup would stop the rise. I pounded the table in October when it was clear to me that the lows are not in. Well it seems that one i got dead wrong. lost a lot of money insisting it be so. NOW it seems we have to reach 3200 as the minimum drop here. We shall see.

[gdl]

Finding a possible path, time zone, and highs for this latest final push. Assuming it is the final push. the current SPX structure indicates we already had a 5 wave move reaching jut below 4200. Between now and the CPI report on 2/14 before the open I do not see the market breaching that target.
it can already be drifting down by then. I am counting on an explosive January in all economic activity and the China open should exacerbate that problem. The CPI and PPI has only a marginal move from last months knowing that it is unlikely we stall much farther than the last 5 to 6 months slide. I am counting on a shocking revamp, of inflation. if that were to occur WATCH OUT BELOW!

My current betting window is 2/14 thru 2/20. Not a correction but a slice right thru all support to 3200 on SPX. This market is where we were the last 2 times a known problem was lurking. the transitory inflation was a hope and dream and so was the pandemic blowing over with no consequence.

[gdl]

Listening to Bloomberg the analysts are now tempering their enthusiasm. gee i wonder why. Could it be because the worse possible outcome of stagflation might be here? I marvel at the ability of humans to justify an optimistic opinion despite the odds. Just remember that the last quarter of 2023 is the only one with decent returns expected. they back ended this sucker so deep that they can excuse a bad return till then. I still believe MY analysis is correct and more logical. The forward looking data points coming up will either see the Friday reports as a one off or the real thing.
Next week we get the CPI and PPI for January. It should be the catalyst needed for a cold splash of water. that and the Powell speeches. His last remark required a lot of wishful thinking and the street was eager to listen.

Am I projecting my wishes on the current situation? Am i overly pessimistic? is this a setup for a crash or only a slower move up? these answers should be decided within 2 weeks time IMO.

Besides Burry's cryptic SELL tweet and removal the street is very complacent and nothing about Fridays report changes much. it seems they absorbed the news and found ways to accept it. I ONLY use advice from people smart enough to realize that a pandemic moving to our shores will react the exact same as one that happened one hundred years ago. the mass majority just ignored the past. See how easy it is to pretend to be smart with graphs and selective data points.

I shake my head at the extreme bias 99% of investors and analysts have. not a ONE predicted the pandemic crash as far as i know. not one predicted "transitory inflation" as a problem.

[gdl]

One other observation: Even the die hard mega bear doom and gloom prognosticators are pushing a crash date to late April on. I myself called for a possible crash around May. I have been shell shocked when the pandemic hit and inflation hit. I always called the drop early by weeks if not months. I see without a doubt the path we are right now on and there is nothing we can do to stop it. trying to interpret the streets mood is hard and as i stated before i usually over estimate their ability to comprehend the assured future. maybe this time is different? I must still use the past performance by the street to anticipate their day of awakening.

This is a scary time for me. i must hold off my bets till i am much surer of immediate moves. How the market reacts at the closing of this quarterly earnings and from data on inflation will be looked at thru a microscope. In my bones i "feel" a crash coming. This feeling is similar to the pandemic forewarning but has a more ominous tone to it. the ONLY time I felt this was was in 1987. I have been pushing for, hoping for, begging for a crash many time before. But this time in my bones I "feel" as i did in 1987 an ominous presence about to engulf me. In 1987 I felt this way exactly 2 weeks before the actual crash. I begged and persuaded my parents to divest all stocks and they "mostly" obliged. It was the ONLY time i asked them to listen to me.

Maybe i am just too emotionally involved since my October failure to see a bottom. I will know soon enough.

[gdl]

The Crypto Trader on YouTube has had the last few displays calling for a crash and each one leading up to yesterday is more insistent and more immediate. I gather he does not see any room for a stall here. I was like him in regard to the China Pandemic that was announced. I was sure everyone would look at the affect of such a pandemic and use that model to get scared off of holding positions in US stocks. I was WRONG for weeks on end and in fact was told that the technical could not be any stronger.

I am torn between expecting a normal retrace next week and this guys Sky Is Falling pronouncement. Timing matters especially in Options. I HOPE that Bitcoin breaks first so i have an opportunity to bet without the huge spike in the VIX.

The remainder of the earnings is this coming week and since many of the high tech earnings were announced already i do not see a high profile miss causing another scare.

Lets be clear here: The news on Friday solidified an important announcement as if i just got word there was a pandemic overseas. the street must digest this as they had to in the initial stages of pandemic news. This is an advantage for investors. it allows for an easy divesting of stocks while the street absorbs the dire implication. BUT I was betting early and lost money for two decent bets before I got it right on the third try. Option bets are crucial for understanding the immediate moves.

I will be looking for Bitcoin to have a lead time. AT least that's my hope. The mood of the street should give me a few days to prepare because this time around we should slice right thru any resistance and have a fast rollover and crash from beginning to end lasting 4 trading days. If Friday was the start that puts the dramatic crash day on Wednesday. I expect and hope we have a mild trading range on Monday. I am trying read the masses mind and psychological reasoning. based on the blogs i witness most have found excuses to continue to see higher prices. The mass market reaction should warn me of a rollover event.

My timescale is most likely another 1 to 2 weeks away. I will be sweating the daily moves out till then

the dollar and 10 year bond yields are also a great immediate indicator for a possible dramatic reversal in stocks.
====================================================================

NO ONE, I mean NO ONE has equated the Friday report to an imminent crash or even deep drop back down yet.

[gdl]

From FACTSHEET

Overall, 50% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q4 2022 to date. Of these companies, 70% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is equal to the percentage of 70% at the end of last week, but below the 5-year average of 77% and below the 10-year average of 73%. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 0.6% above estimates, which is below the percentage of 1.5% at the end of last week, below the 5-year average of 8.6%, and below the 10-year average of 6.4%. If 0.6% is the actual surprise percentage for the quarter, it will mark the lowest surprise percentage reported by the index since 2008.

As a result, the index is reporting lower earnings for the fourth quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings decline for the fourth quarter is -5.3% today, compared to an earnings decline of -5.1% last week and an earnings decline of -3.3% at the end of the fourth quarter (December 31).

Looking ahead, analysts expect earnings declines for the first half of 2023, but earnings growth for the second half of 2023. For Q1 2023 and Q2 2023, analysts are projecting earnings declines of -4.2% and -2.9%, respectively. For Q3 2023 and Q4 2023, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 3.4% and 10.5%, respectively. For all of CY 2023, analysts predict earnings growth of 3.0%.
============================================================================================================

Recap. Weak and weaker earnings as reported quarterly ends. Only the last quarter of 2023 is there expected a big run up in earning. that's called back ending expectations to keep the market happy with current valuations. "If 0.6% is the actual surprise percentage for the quarter, it will mark the lowest surprise percentage reported by the index since 2008." That means earning surprises this quarter were basically non-existing on the UPSIDE! Not since 2008? Hmm. I wonder what happened then?

And then we had Friday Bombshell report. Great for the future expectations of disinflation? Do the math and the Wall Street addition gets an F.

[gdl]

I keep looking at the market pattern from yearly to monthly to daily and still see no defining time zone, target, or wave structure. I can't determine the WHEN or even HOW HIGH.

TODAY the street was put on warning with the data on multiple levels. No longer can the street see a Goldilocks scenario and tame inflation in the near future. SO today i mark everything against the 2/3/2023 point. How long and how high will we go from here since we are absolutely sure to confirm an acceleration in economic activity. Not just half a million jobs created, nor the spike up of 11 million more waiting to be filled. I saw January manufacturing surge from contraction to way above neutral. In a nutshell this tells me the consumer completely shrugged off dealing with inflation. I suspect they are dipping more into credit cards and borrowing but as long as they have JOBS they can keep extending their debt.

I was adamant thru the whole inflation cycle starting over a year ago that transitory was a silly argument. Even after it showed a persistent increase I was adamant we are in a new inflation cycle and have departed from the last 40 years of disinflation. If that premise is true this economy will collapse at some point in the near future.

Does anyone have any notion of reversal points or timescale based on a system or pattern? I am convinced this time we do crash like 1929. The euphoric turnaround from despair to hope to seeing a perfect setup for ideal earnings has been laid out. That is TILL TODAY! the street is on alert and will react to more news of an uptick in inflation.

[gdl]

jxyzobrien Re: Beerworld post# 27239
Thursday, January 26, 2023 9:19:19 AM
Post# 27252 of 27367
economy doing much better than most think
economy tops q4 estimates
fed 23 2nd 4th quarter estimate comes in

Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in exports and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and consumer spending," the release states.

as long as economic data is not shocking the market move on
the market knew yesterday what the numbers were
that caused the rally. MSFT earnngs are q1 and the market has already priced in those
=========================================================================================================

The wack off same old. justifying staying Bullish when all hope is lost. just like a pandemic is coming. Man are these people repetitive and make the exact same mistakes over and over. This is as worse if not worse than a real pandemic hitting our shores. Then we had 100 year old charts to show us the way. it did but they didn't. As the situation becomes MORE DIRE and clearer i get SHUT OUT because they don't want to hear it. this is why stock market charts remain the exact same a century later. No amount of technology or new found intelligence can supersede the human nature of emotional betting. IT controls your bets, not any system. Most rely on internal bias and find reasons to stick with it. My GOD a pandemic didn't shake them, nothing will.

[gdl]

ON TOP OF THE WORLD! One days economic data was so startling the street was shocked into believing at first glance it was a great report.

What it was is a shattering report. All that saw a Goldilocks scenario of profits and slowing economy with lower inflation got plunged into ice water stark naked. The numerous reports for January is so clear and destructive ONLY human nature would pretend otherwise and find excuses to shrug it off.

NOW I know with certainty the clock for a CRASH has started TODAY! Not a drop but a real defined Crash. the setup is Perfect! Imagine a year long drop and recovery started late October and built from there. Inflation was constantly dropping from spike levels. Economy was feeling the inflation pinch and worries of a recession was looming. Then we got employment report after report showing no change in the tight labor market. A PERFECT Goldilocks scenario. TILL JANUARY DATA that is. A HUGE spike in activity and hiring on top of the already tight market. Manufacturing spiked also. In political terms it was a coup d'etat.

Thank goodness there is NO economic data out next week. not for the whole week. That should assure all that this bull is alive and kicking. So I can hopefully eliminate next week as the start of a crash.

Now i search for pinpointing the crash. An impossible task but i must try.

[gdl]

Re-Post from Wack-off board.

SELL SELL SELL. Like the pandemic overseas it is a DONE DEAL! only idiots that can't see what's in front of them keep getting it wrong.

KEEP THIS POST AND I WILL KISS YOUR ASS AND BEG FOR FORGIVENESS IF WE DO NOT CRASH WITHIN 45 DAYS!

Only a fool can ignore the obvious. Not only was jobs spiking but the manufacturing sector was on FIRE in January. A spike move to 60 is unheard of if Inflation was causing concern. then we have the Chinese citizens experiencing freedom from their lockdown.

Let me make this perfectly clear, the Goldilocks situation is now Z Wars. Inflation is spiking and FAST! we don't need another 2 month to find this out. BOTH China and US January report was explosive!

The dollar, bond yields, CPI, PPI, and a FED that has to eat it's words all happening in economically lightning speed. There is ONLY one way a market that switched from despair to euphorbia only to find out the worse scenario is upon us can react. A true crash will occur between NOW and 45 days from now.

This will make easier faster money than the pandemic did. A swifter steeper drop is assured. you don't go from relief that a slowdown will stop rate hikes but keep employment without going into a recession (sweet spot) to the absolute worse scenario possible.

Never Mind! delete this and i will re-post it when the crash happens. Is my LOGIC so alien to you? If you don't believe my data LOOK IT UP!
======================================================================

Timeline for Crash: I assume we survive todays shocker and muddle along for a few days. The perfect storm is brewing. In fact there is NO ECONOMIC DATA coming out the whole of next week allowing for the weak clinging belief everything is going to work out.

The FED is on acid! no other way to explain their decision. they see a runaway job market, resurgence in manufacturing in January, China reopening, all during the supposed hardship of year long inflation? DUH! They are F'ed. They are crossing their fingers and asking psychics for help to allow for a soft landing with no inflation. the odds of a rate hike of 50 basis points just went from ZERO to 25%. in 2 weeks it will be 50%.

[gdl]

The manufacturing report for January suggest the FED is on acid and tripping. Combine the jobs report, want ads, spike in new orders and now China's spike from their citizens release of pent up demand and the so called Goldilocks scenario turned into a Z War series.

To think the report actually caused the market to run positive for a while is another miracle. We are close, very very very close to another dramatic deep drop. this time however the cold splash of water from future spikes in inflation will cause a huge dumbfounded response and a knee-jerk realization to sell sell sell. Crash! A 4 day variety this time around. the psychological swings are so great that ONLY a crash is appropriate.

[gdl]

Jobs report sealed our path and fate. Add China to the mix and the resurgence of inflation is assured and accelerated. Ugly. The Fed will have no choice till the economy breaks.

[gdl]

Easy way to tell where the market is. The pre-earnings spike on the big tech players all have had underperforming earnings disclosed after hours.
BUT so far they have given up only some of the daily gains. if they hold up tomorrow and DO NOT slide further than todays gains we have an extended fast move up from here.

This market is in a sweet spot thinking inflation is dying, jobs holding up well and long term projected earnings coming back. The FED has spoken. They lead the way.

I warned there was two ways to go and the longer higher move with more dramatic drop later this year is the one they picked. IF the market is dropping on inflation news that will take time for China to cause another spike. if it is something all together the earliest i see is a full 2 plus weeks from now and 4250 at a minimum. If/when we hit 4400 i would call that also a top.

Michael Burry's one word SELL has me in the same excited state. I get called irrational and unstable when i make the same announcement. you do know who this guy is. He is not calling for a garden variety drop.

I LOVE IT WHEN MY SENSE OF MARKET POSITIONING coincides with some of the giants in the game. This next drop will make a few billionaires as it destroys 100 for every one made. 2023 is IT! no longer have to guess IMO.

[gdl]

gdl Thursday, February 02, 2023 12:28:25 PM
Post# 27343 of 27343 (Wackoff site)

One other tidbit of reality! The VIX down ONE PERCENT as the Q's up THREE PERCENT! The logic is a spike move up is a calming affect where the spike move down is dangerous. I mean how stupid is that logic. The bet on a bullish spike move is always more profitable than the same move down. I love the backed in push to bet the positive with such incentives. You actually get rewarded betting for spike moves up with the beta so low.

I have seen this since i started betting the market a century ago. My only hope is that the JOLT report of 11 Million want ads, labor market staying tight as a drum, China surge the first month open, and rallying on absolutely dismal earnings and projections stay drunk for a while longer. the party however should be over with ONLY 2 months of Chinas INFLATION data points. Commodities will be the first to pop!

This is like watching a pandemic overseas and thinking we got this! I know almost all here put those special blinders on during that period of time. Bullish and Balances was not exactly the right call. IF you are wondering why so many hedge funds are shouting dire scorch earth doom it is because they are ATTUNED to it. But coming from the likes of them and me falls on deaf ears.

I have accumulated all the posts that were deleted and will show you just how adamant and right my call was. Hubris to assume they are right but lLike i said the path is already determined.

i LOVE such imbalanced markets. the catch up when the drop starts gets amplified into a snowball off a cliff. I was LAUGHED at when i presented the very bullish immediate outcome and what that means for the long term. YOU of course just accept whatever the market does and that's why you are ALWAYS behind the curve. YOU will NOT see this coming regardless of how i shout and scream.

[gdl]

Based on the BITCOIN (tell) we are almost there. A top that should emulate the last spike move up in duration and height.

Granted this could really be a new bull move and if so we should easily see a BIG breakout soon. not the 500 to 1,000 point moves but a sustained fast move back up in the 30's, 40's.

While it is always possible a new bull has emerged both the stochastics and common sense states otherwise. Fundamentals are a disaster based on the most optimistic projections. This MUST include a rate hike finished right here, must include inflation going down and steeply, must include much better productivity with lower costs and higher spending.

The glaring repeat of a post pandemic here is being played out in China. They have actually revolted against their government before they relented and opened the markets. The one month data was startling already. A HUGE jump in economic activity. That one large nation relies on commodities like no other nation. OIL will be the first data point to spike and all other commodities will follow. The speed at which the spike move occurs will be historically significant. matter of weeks or perhaps as much as 2 months of data will show such a spike tht this country will finally panic in the realization that Inflation will kill our economy here.

NOW I wait it out. Will the market drop hard and fast BEFORE a confluence of data points prove that inflation is about to explode or do we wait for months of steady spike moves? that is my only concern. So far there is NONE so TODAY we should be safe from any deep drop. I wait for speculative best like Bitcoin and overseas reaction to Chinas explosives' growth.

How high? How long? 4400 on SPX should be the limit. No more than 3 months of data and large reduction in earnings expectations for the next quarterly reports. That leaves a window between NOW and end of MAY!

[gdl]

My point exactly!
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/china-does-pose-global-inflation-risk-not-reasons-most-think

And then the same data brings optimism that a soft landing here is possible and markets will rejoice. Not one time did they connect our debacle with their reopening/ i find that incredulous.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/16/as-china-reopens-and-data-surprises-economists-are-starting-to-get-less-gloomy.html

And then we have the two sides of one coin dilemma.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-economy-slows-sharply-q4-2022-growth-one-worst-record-2023-01-17/

[gdl]

WHY the world economies will experience a SURGE in INFLATION as bad if not worse than our own reopening from the pandemic. While the first spike was a direct result of their shutdown disrupting supply this reopening from a draconian shutdown will be epic in scope. It will take NO TIME to show. in fact it already has!

I am giving you the blueprint for a tsunami like the 100 year old blueprint from the pandemic. In this instance all we had to do was look on our shores to see what happens when a shutdown becomes a timed opening. Their economy is as matched to ours in most everything.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-31/china-s-economic-activity-rebounds-sharply-after-reopening?leadSource=uverify%20wall

WRITE THIS DOWN! The market will crash and then the FED will drastically reverse their rate hikes to massive cuts. A shambles. ALL THIS YEAR. We already KNOW what happens immediately when you open markets of this size. This is WHY I can not see another 5 months go by without the affects being felt. LOOK at the CHINA ECONOMIC REPORT just come out.

I see these events as easily as i see a game of tick tac toe. Not complicated.

[gdl]

D-Day deadline just about OVER! A nice relaxing run up has started it seems. After Friday it is clear skies. How long? How strong? 4400 on SPX seems possible.

My bipolar report stating that we either start a humungous drop NOW or within months not allowing the half year mark to go unscathed. In fact the longer and higher we go from here will result in a m ore dramatic 2023 than if we already started the drop. The most devastating thing to occur since the great depression.

TODAY multiple hedge funds have made the same proclamation calling for a collapse of our financial system. And YOU thought i was over the top?

I cross my fingers and hope we survived this earnings season. Will know by close of Friday. PUMP IT UP!

[gdl]

Timeline for a deep drop has been accelerated thanks to wack-offs smug complacent remark. the man has a knack for catching the exact moment of change. he basically stated the Bear is DEAD! Earnings is dismal and getting worse as the final days of massive earnings announcements are made. I expect it will get masked by the FED 25 basis point announcement and hold on future hikes. This is a slam dunk 98% expectation. The FED would NEVER disappoint that massive one sided assumption.

Stagflation is the best we can hope for and believe it or not it happens to be the economic scenario that is the WORSE for earnings, other than a deep depression that is. China has made sure inflation stays with us a long time to come. they just opened up their economy. Our insane tight job market has only one way to go, and that is down BUT it will take a long time. We also are coming off a huge stimulus present from the pandemic giveaways as it is all spent by now.

Large borrowing costs after a 40 year easy money program is going to result is a shocking economic disaster this year. Spent free handouts, huge spike in debt costs and purchasing items, and a job market that guarantees the FED will be forced to keep rates high till way after it becomes too late. A PERFECT STORM.

The Crypto Guy is jumping out of his skull announcing a crash in Bitcoin starting yesterday! I have my doubts it starts in February even with my counter intuitive wack-off guy shouting the Bull is Back! . This can change on a dime but so far nothing indicates we drop hard soon.
===================================================================

HOLD THE PRESSES! Wack-off JUST announced a drop of 100 SPX points imminent! Should i buy CALLS? nah, he could be right once in a while. I had till 2/3 as deadline for a nasty drop. Still do. But that means only 3 more trading days.

[gdl]

Wack-off site loves to delete my posts. I show clear concise posts of the XYZ head honcho's posts that were just dead wrong. The absolute certainty i have that this market will experience gut wrenching drops is as clear as "I can't Breathe" incidents and the continued elevated abuses to this day. IF we learned nothing, changed nothing about our policing and allow for daily abuses with the strong backing of FOX NEWS, the GOP and White Supremacist voters we are surely going down only one path. AN EASY CALL!

Imagine FOX news platform where they held judgement of the police even after the video's and a full month after the incident . Even AFTER they were fired and indicted? Then they continue to point out that it can't be racism if the perps were black. I suppose there weren't JEWS that helped Hitler? I find it particularly peculiar that in all this time not a SINGLE killing of a white victim occurred on video as if we all know ONLY blacks are bad. FOX not only slanted the truth but tried to put FEAR in their audiences mind that the MOB was going to riot. they constantly indicated it was going to happen soon.

I cringe at the obvious disgusting bias we all have and continue to display despite glaring shame for being a racist. They deflect the blame so easily as if the JEW deserved the ovens.

NOTHING HAS CHANGED on the divide between human decency and the devils hold. In fact it got worse, a whole lot worse. MY argument will be sealed as the GOP continue to use this divide and hate to gain, yes gain power.

That's why when i declared 7 plus years ago the path we were headed for it has proven correct. I get a gold star. Just like the excesses in Germany the only two paths is a complete takeover by the devil as he destroys the world we know or a gut wrenching fight to save this country. in BOTH we re going to be tested. In BOTH our fate is sealed. In ONE we crawl back up. In the other we fall but manage to destroy all others to the same fate.

Baby this market and economy is screwed. This as TRUMP, the single most destructive human on this planet will launch his campaign to finish the job he started. Hitler should have held his ground, stood tall during the aftermath of the war and had a good chance to reinvigorate his party.

We are a slow witted stupid species hell bent on self antihalation. You would have thought after all the body cams, street video, personal cell phone recordings the GOP and state police would have already made sure this type of inhumane display wouldn't be seen or would be hidden? I guess they are working on making it a crime to video the police. Watch for legislation to ban all video. I find it astonishing that a vigilante out of control police unit in of all places Memphis would have covered their tracks better. I heard this same group terrorized others and if so just another reminder that the path we are on is final. NOTHING will change the social and economic path we are on. Absolutely nothing! it is inevitable. We are an inevitable disaster trying to find the most destructive path possible.

From a president that displayed complete disdain for law and order, attempted a coup by killing his own VP, is right now still the front runner of the GOP. If anyone in the past was to read a book describing the actual events that already unfolded they would laugh at the absurdity that readers can imagine such a plot. And yet the PEOPLE that actually VOTE have a good chance of voting for him yet again. this PROVES beyond a shadow of a doubt that I Can't Breathe was the start of a campaign to make sure we never ever see that type of abuse again. Not stop it but hide it. Trump has made it crystal clear that his only crime was to allow it to be exposed. the next GOP leader will hide it much better and get more accomplished.

Call me cynical. i think of myself as pragmatic. i have already proved that evil doesn't get stopped just by exposing it. We are on a path that can't be stopped. When Trump accomplishments and the police accomplishments have progressed to where we are today it is a foregone conclusion we will finish the task. Self destruction is in our genes.

[gdl]

GOLDILOCKS, GOLD, GOLDEN CROSS. Man are we already in nirvana or what? Talk of the town is that this sucker is in a PERFECT scenario for a HUGE RALLY!

I was ridiculed for projecting this scenario was possible, at least the perception of one. I told the wack-off site over a month ago that this market seems to be basing and a rally is very possible. THEY as usual seem to be stuck in the middle of the masses being pushed and pulled constantly without viewing the situation from above. EVEN the die hard BULL, the leader of the pack was calling for a deep drop. I knew then as i do now that once they switch, finally, to the bear side there is a rally coming. And baby has this been a nice one. Once the dull news of earnings and FED announcement on rates is over, AND this sucker stays standing we have a nice calm period to persuade all that the new bull market is back. Goldilocks indeed!

I was RIDICULED, as i am sure Pretzels Analysis must be for giving such long projections on the bipolar path. For ME it only matters in the short to intermediate term and NOT for the long term path. In Fact it solidified my stand. Before this year is out we would be down 50% from where we are today. A HUGE monumental forecast and one that is frankly hard to comprehend.

I promised myself NOT to give away the daily calls or turns. I seem to get laughed at for being right on some major reversals and wrong on daily calls. I decided to do away with the daily calls and stick to the analysis. That way i know i can't lose.

Is this the year of the Midas Touch where everything turns to Gold? or will everything that is touched turn to Pewter.

Watch the breakout of BITCOIN. The Crypto guy is desperately talking down Bitcoin with insistence that a crash is happening any day now. If MY deadline of February 3rd sees the market in good shape NOTHING in the immediate future should sway the BULL.

Repeat my last month scenario: Either a crash before February 3rd or as much as a half year of 2023 in the deep green. Wide latitude. Can be 1 more month or 5. Not sure yet, depends on DATA! BTW Inflation is not only NOT GONE it will actually EXCEED the highs it set last year.

I guess living in the last 40 year cycle without someone like Buffett to explain the cycles, we live in the bubble and refuse to accept these cycles. this time is different!

[gdl]

EASY CALL! The data is tame and combined with all the other data points the FED can easily revert to a 25 basis point move and declare a hold for future raises till needed. BUT the FED is stubborn and does not like to change policy without warning. I suspect they raise rates by 50 basis points despite the wishes of the street. If they do I question the current rally.

[gdl]

Biggie tomorrow at 8:30. the whole ball of wax. decides on FED's rate hike ALL IN ONE REPORT! Core PCE Price index.

Market will react if bad news. Count on IT!

[gdl]

This market gest no respect. Even the Crypto GUY has a multi-signal Bullish divergence and he states the move should only be SIDEWAYS before the crash. You got to love their own bias and REFUSAL to accept it for what it is. The street is itching for a deep drop here. Everyone is saying the same thing. Me, well i have an absolute last ditch target for any deep drop and that is 2/3/23. WHY? 2 reasons: 1 - we already surpassed the 3 month usual target for a top to bottom scenario indicating another wave down. 2 - earning season will be behind us.

I mentioned this over a month ago. The bipolar move. Either complete capitulation or a longer stronger move that WIPES OUT the wave count of preference. The market strength after earnings would be the last hurrah and one that signals a devastating conclusion with fast deep drops and lots of head shaking denial. Which one will it be? Not long to find out.

[gdl]

Earnings in FULL FORCE! Hint: if the street can just hang on till middle of next week we have a delay in the inevitable and a stronger move with faster response. In other words the longer this sucker hold up the odds increase for a devastating crash. just like my post on wack-off site.

Nothing new, nothing to add. truck on!

[gdl]

No chart analysts. Here is extreme bias and stupidity. Marvelous observation. Interest sensitive job sectors are hiring. He thinks that means no recession and no inflation? Duh. Man is his gyro off.

[gdl]

UNTILL FURTHER NOTICE I will refrain from posting on Investorshub. What i will do is post my timestamped thoughts from another site and repost here after the fact. I wouldn't want anyone to lose money because of me.

What an historic time we live in. Good luck.

[gdl]

My ULTIMATE FAKE-OUT seems far fetched but still possible. A longer stronger move lasting MONTHS, not weeks.

It would guarantee a really diasterous full 2023 and SPX possibly hitting 2200.

For now I only see late January and less than 2 weeks before shit hits the fan. Stay tuned. Exciting stuff.

DAMN! Bitcoin surging faster and harder today already nearing target price range. Now i question if we have 2 weeks. I suspect Bitcoin will hit 20K and retrace before retesting a final time. That's the ONLY way we last 2 weeks before the ugly drop starts.

[gdl]

FED Bullard spelled out a goldilocks situation. how can the market not agree. Soft landing, disinflation this year, and ending rate hikes o a slow basis with teeny tiny baby steps.

the MAN! If he can't pump this market up no one can! And pump it will do after a year of misery and dread.

The economic data for next week should also allow a continued rally. THEN WE HAVE BULK OF QUARTERLY EARNINGS from the 20th on. Thats is the ONLY time this market gest interesting. Enjoy the eye of the storm.

[gdl]

EVERYONE is back in the Market! Crypto is breaking out finally! Last trigger for a nice move here. How long it lasts? Bitcoin target is between 20K and 21K. it is now at 18K. if it hits and exceeds that mark we might have an even longer stronger counter rally lasting longer and stronger than anyone would have expected.

For now we rally till earnings and FED rate hike. Steady smooth grind it out rally. the type that KILLS anyone wishing to short it.

Since JOBS are absurdly tight and China is fully mobilized for growth the next few months of reports will make it crystal clear INFLATION is SPIKING once again! Oh My! But how many multiple data points must they see before they react? that is ALWAYS my biggest concern. Slow dim-witted giant needs a sledgehammer pounded multiple times for a reaction to occur.

The SETUP is for the SPX this year to break below 3200 and possibly hit 2200. ALL IN 2023. Don't believe it? Get back to me ONE MONTH FROM NOW! if i need to discuss i will. if i need to eat crow I will.

[gdl]

Now to markets. We have the classic IN-LINE numbers. it will keep the bear away. I also suspect it will keep the bullish bias intact but no real breakout as everyone expects. Grind it out market. The FED is a wild card since the numbers are not clear to everyone what they will do. in fact i think it is not clear to the FED. The weekly job claims once again showed a very strong market. Economics 101 in play. you can't stop inflation with a fully employed workforce. While the discretionary money from the pandemic is gone and credit keeps racking up as long as wages and full employment remain there is no hope of a soft landing on both the stock market and inflation.

The odds of this counter trend lasting for than 2 weeks is suspect till we see more forward action. I do not see anything but in-line expectations for the quarterly earnings and that is not what bulls are made of. At best we trudge along till everyone becomes aware that inflation needs a fire truck to douse the flames. China has switched its policy on a dime. The repercussions should be immediate. Not the best of timing when trying to tame inflation.

My current best guess is the FED raises by 25 basis points and is vague on the future. BUT at the same time i see compounded data that questions the wisdom of only 25. How long will this rally last and how high?

[gdl]

One of my deleted posts on wack-off site. Seems words are a dangerous thing. More importantly you never ever upstage the moron that runs the site. Dumb down your posts to appease the dim witted. Mustn't show them for what they are, full of hot air and a whole lot of Hubris.
Now this post below is a radical assumed path not tested yet. In a week it can be destroyed so don't hold this as a given just yet. BUT the recent CPI and Jobs report seems to confirm this possibility so far.

gdl
Re: None
Wednesday, January 11, 2023 10:16:10 PM
Post# of 27172 Go
MUDDLED, basing pattern? I do believe for a month i have this nagging feeling we are about to venture into BULL territory. I was told i am an idiot and bet against my "feelings" AAPL proved me wrong, CPI is a trailing indicator, Wyckoff indicators don't allow it . Blah blah blah. Thank the lordie the powers here forgot to delete all my posts.

Everyone has switched on a dime! Everyone expects tame CPI. Even me!

It sets up for the absolute worse scenario possible for this market. it sets up for a bullish trend that can lasts months. Why is that a disaster?
1 - China has switched on a dime and opened up their country last month.
2 - Job market tightest it has ever been.
3 - Over 40 years ago when inflation started out it had multiple periods of a slowdown but quickly resumed
4 - Revamping valuations from already high levels.
5 - Consumer spent most of the pandemic buildup and is tapping into home equity and credit again.

This sucker can last one month or as long as 6 months. Assuming we started a bull cycle. Tomorrow might give us a better clue.

Since the end of October i have been hedging my assumptions and finding reasons why we have been basing for another bullish run. While I strongly believe we never accomplished a final bear level low all this does is complicated the timing, not throw the assumed lows out. Since 3200 was my assumed low and we seem to be rallying instead the next time we drop it will go straight to 2200.

*** The above path i laid out only works if we indeed do stay on the bullish side from here. if between now and earnings, end of 3rd week of January we DO NOT HOLD UP I will write this path out. if we DO HOLD UP the second half of 2023 will be all down and reach 2200 on SPX. A haircut of over 40% all in less than 6 months. An historic, one for the record books fall. ***

Like my HUNCH in late October, early November it is ONLY an idea. As the weeks progress I will either reinforce my stance or throw it out. I NEVER hold to an assumption if real world events prove me wrong. The ONLY long term BIAS I have is that the final lows of this current Bear cycle will be devastating. And it will occur all in 2023. The path i just spelled out is crazy since it involves an assumed recovery with possible NEW HIGHS and a devastating crash all in the same year.

I will keep you posted on my changes.

[gdl]

I have been ridiculed by the same person over the course of 3 weeks for suggesting a big rally is possible. The WACK-OFF site joked i was a contrarian indicator. this from an extremely BULLISH bunch that refused to accept a pandemic and inflation last year. Seems whatever I say or do is ridiculed and challenged. In fact this bear saw a possible basing pattern 2 weeks ago and got slammed for it. NOW that i spell out why Inflation is not the only reason for a major debacle i once again get slammed. In fact inflation and stocks did very well in the early 80's.

As for the FED they know that Inflation, once it establishes itself in wage growth is very hard to tame. I even suggested an expected reading on CPI would be short term bullish. We are about to find out tomorrow! A decent reading extends this bull and changes most minds that we are in a BULL MARKET.

The dynamics of the pandemic and inflation is such that a natural result will be an overshoot caused by supply constraints. the drop over last 4 months is normal. Now we see if the Wage component is going to reverse back up the inflation trajectory.

the FED is in a precarious position. Damned if they do, damned if they don't. Market reaction however would be short term explosive on the upside if they stop raising rates. it might also be a bad mistake intermediate term.

[gdl]

We have our rally before the CPI report. There are two conflicting economic data points that are confusing the market. Steady drop in inflation growth and strong jobs market. The slew of other reports suggests that a recession is almost here. But they all can be mistaken simply because we had a pandemic that created a pent up demand after a huge drop. Many assume that inflation is STILL transitory due to the pandemic. The recent 4 month readings indicate that we overshot on the demand side forcing pressure on prices and now we are reverting back. I actually think the JOBS Market is the ONLY parameter needed. If it stays strong the inflation data will once again spike up.

JOBS JOBS JOBS.

The Fed knows this. Will they actually stick to their position on fighting inflation or will they concede to the streets request? A 4 month drop from a spike move has no meaning or direction in context to a huge drop and subsequent surge. that is the real future dat point? only time will tell.

This is why the market is so confused. the bias on the street is to always view things in a positive light. the nagging JOBS constraint on betting the market will not go away till that also reverses.

[gdl]

BITCOIN about to TAKE OFF!!!!!!! I see 20,000 and higher and all next week.

I see the last hurrah for stocks this coming week. Not even sure of the CPI or any other data point matters. We had tired of bad news.

Let the games begin! the GOP ,the laughing stock to the world will make us laugh even harder this month. The NEW BULL MARKET HAS EMERGED! three cheers to the stupidity of this nation.

This will be the shortest BULL MARKET in history. Enjoy it while it lasts.

[gdl]

January 6th was not a coincidence but an OMEN! Anniversary of the coup attempt was honored by allowing those that failed that attempt to gain control of the very fabric of our government to destroy it from within. INSANE! As they swear in yet another subhuman creature as a new member of the GOP.

No longer can the voter deny exactly why the January 6th insurrection event took place and who cheered it. Like fireworks on a clear dark night we all saw the same thing and trying to alter that perception would be impossible. So as of today all saw the same event and know with certainty why it happened. Most of the voters that rebelled against our democracy still do and do so with a vengeance. They NOW have a strong foothold on 2 of the 3 branches of government determined to topple it.

We have hit a point of no return! the same scenario has unfolded on our economic dismantling. No one sees these two events as terminal, only a phase. Like the 12 years of Hitler's rule many of the voters that supported him from the start were with him towards the end. No ONE saw the total destruction of a nation and long period of rebuilding.

Stock market: We finally had a long consolidation period and a new mindset that everything will be back to normal. How long this delusion holds is anyone's guess but history would suggest at the junction of this bear market it would NOT take long for multiple data points and earnings prospects to wake us up. In other words weeks are the timeframe for a new round of plunges.

In both the political arena and economic one we have passed the point of no return, sealed the fate on January 6th and celebrated that destruction on it's anniversary.

[gdl]

We gap up to 4000 possibly on the SPX. market convinced the FED is now raising only by 25 basis points and will stop with no more than another 25 basis point hike. market convinced a recession is here and is just waiting for jobs to collapse. They see inflation as exhausted. The CPI better conform to their view.

[gdl]

Astonishing that in Wackoff site I get mocked for being wrong. Lets recap just how wrong i was. I called exactly the drop of Thursday and sited 3810 was the low point of channel. I also stated that near the close (IF) it dropped below it was a sign that Friday was going to be a BIG drop. I also stated that the close on Thursday was marginal breaking below 3810. I stated that Friday will depend on Jobs Report and i saw ONLY a very strong one coming. I even stipulated that if the 8:30 report was very strong an immediate drop will ensue and if on the off chance it held up till open it was a great opportunity to buy PUTS. I gave the outcome of report slim odds to show weakness. What happened was there was enough glimmer of HOPE to start a rally. I even stated that there would be a spike move at open and if it deteriorates within the first half hour it would drop 100 points. It dropped in that time BUT held in the BLUE. It built off of that. The jobs report was strong. the earnings report for recent month was .3 percent instead of .4 percent. that was the HOPE they clung to. it will not be enough to reverse the longer term trend. The CPI report on Thursday should be the next big test. If it reverses higher as i expect this market should react badly and immediately.

I will reiterate, the JOBS Market is very strong. how strong? JOLTS just recaptured its old highs of 10.5 million open ads. Earnings was building .3 off of a .4 rise the month before. That is unsustainable to control inflation. In fact the unemployment rate hit yet another new record at 6.5 percent.

So everyone is expecting inflation to drop from here? If anything it will HEAT UP! Why? because it NO LONGER is due to supply. it is due to an extremely tight labor market with 10.5 million want ads, unemployment at record lows and job growth over 200K each and every month. Lets do the MATH: record number of people working, record low for available workers, wage pressure where companies are begging people to take their offers with 10.5 Million want ads.

This is so insane it reminds me of all the other insane positions. The pre-pandemic where we already had a model to work off of and refuse. 40 year disinflation cycle KILLED DEAD from the pandemic going forward. A dramatic shift in inflation one year ago and no one contemplated it was a major problem?

Short term vision as of today: Maximum 4 day rally till Thursday. 3920 - 4020 area for highs. IF the CPI disappoints we get an immediate slide and once again over 150 point drop that single day. It will break below 3800. if the CPI is on point with expectation we get a slower response but a slide none the less. If the CPI shocks with a dramatic drop we get a continued rally to next level of resistance.

I was surprised there was any hope for todays report and 2 of 3 were bad, real bad, but ONE gave a sliver of hope, the earnings component. It went up but didn't hit the already high target of .4 percent. This market wanted an excuse to rally and found it. the next excuse will be harder to swallow.

Missed one other reason for rally, Services ISM report for December contracted for first time since 2 1/2 years ago. It is a big deal but frankly I must view this as an anomaly or miscalculated reading. Will know soon enough.