Alternative Path

[gdl]

There seems to be two channels this can go One finds the lows by January 4th. The other by the end of January. The end of January seems more logical but markets will do whatever it wants and I do not have all the reasons to dispute it.

IF we are going the route of end of January than the most logical conclusion is we start the next drop immediately in a slow methodical nature. That means Tuesday should be lower.

If we are going to speed up the finish Tuesday should have a spike move higher of perhaps 50 SPX points. Sounds counter intuitive but The current drop from start of this month has already 3 waves (possibly finishing up wave 4 on Tuesday) and the signature move has been a 2 day rally before the next leg down.

[gdl]

There seems to be two channels this can go One finds the lows by January 4th. The other by the end of January. The end of January seems more logical but markets will do whatever it wants and I do not have all the reasons to dispute it.

IF we are going the route of end of January than the most logical conclusion is we start the next drop immediately in a slow methodical nature. That means Tuesday should be lower.

If we are going to speed up the finish Tuesday should have a spike move higher of perhaps 50 SPX points. Sounds counter intuitive but The current drop from start of this month has already 3 waves (possibly finishing up wave 4 on Tuesday) and the signature move has been a 2 day rally before the next leg down.

[gdl]

Boring and in same channel as the last full year. 5th day tomorrow. After expect 10 day rally leading into new year. As for the silly interruption today by the January 6 committee it rehashed the same old with the same old response, or lack of. There were so many high level people willing to help the coup attempt only the foot soldiers are going to be in trouble. the rest, well all in politics today will get promoted by their party. Trump and the really stupid enablers will get spanked.

I don't even think TRUMP will get banned from running again. in fact the GOP will rally behind the dictator and the few politicians that absolutely knew their role in the coup attempt was meaningful and sought a pardon, well they will also get promoted by their party. They will see no ramifications from any investigation by anyone or any time going forward.

But the GOP will attack those that dared to stand up to treason. they will get tarred and feathered and paraded on the GOP streets.

[gdl]

Anticipating a delete on Wyckoff's site. Any time i dare to criticize or point out the inefficiencies and mistakes it gets wiped out as if they were never made. Here it is. I give it less than one day to find and destroy this post. Not here of course but on his site.
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That assumes the other CRASH events was planned and approved? The silly notion that a CRASH can be stopped is simply not true. In fact the complete opposite is true. We can get a crash when the natural mechanism is denied. the longer it is denied the more pressure and eventually we get the crash.

You gave me the argument that a pandemic wasn't going to cause any problem because the street already anticipated the result and concluded there was no problem. YOU forgot to look at the past event because it suited YOUR perception of events. While i get excitable and overshoot on the warning signs you do the complete opposite.

I suspect because i dared to criticize your method this will get deleted immediately. got to ask yourself why that is? It is you that refuse to change or even accept anything nto in your current assumptions. You were wrong about the pandemic and the start of 2022. i was excitable wasn't I. You thought i was crazy YET BOTH times they turned out correctly.

So if you want to "correct" my bad habits i suggest you start with yours first.

I am shouting the same warnings. The drop that ended in October is far to short to be an established bottom. IMO !!!!!!!!

[gdl]

NOON TIME - down 60 BUT the VIX has barely budged. Extreme complacency where everyone is absolutely sure this is just a 3 day correction and they can BUY BUY BUY till new years with a great entry point. By 1:30 i expect the temporary (or permanent) lows to be established. 3760 should be the lowest point it can get. The buying from 1:30 to 2:30 will be interesting to watch. If it is slow and drawn out but upward I would suggest another round of drops for last 1 hour to 1:30. It can just create a double bottom at 3760 or break below. THE action in last 30 minutes is more telling to see if this correction stops here or morphs into a real crash.

[gdl]

Is this just a THREE DAY slide or a crash? So far just a three day slide. Would need to see the lows of the day at the close and in the 3750 range in order to set up for a Monday crash. 3700 to 3200 would be the crash day (IF) that were to occur.

Manufacturing and service PMI for December at 9:45 Interested to see if there is an uptick and how the market immediately reacts.

[gdl]

Closed just under 3900 as predicted with no resistance in last 15 days to rally. Tomorrow should be a steeper drop intra-day IF the end of the drop is here. 3740 absolutely lows intra-day. Not sure we get there. if this sucker has 2 more weeks to go we can indeed ONLY drop another 100 SPX points before recovering at close.

Doubt this is the start of a really bad fall. Sacrosanct to spoil the holidays.

[gdl]

Wyckoff (better known as whack off) site allows me to post selectively and when proven right or challenges their kingdom gets wiped off.

The agenda there is clear and i expose it constantly. You either CONFORM to HIS rules or get banned. I mentioned todays action and predictability going forward. I got ridiculed for, get this, saying there will never be a crash so close to Christmas. Funny part is I have been calling for a crash and got equally spanked for daring to suggest such a preposterous idea. NOW that I state it will NOT happen i get spanked yet again.

My call. Today we should drop at or slightly below 3900. Tomorrow the third day of drop is usually the worse day. I predicted 3900 close today and a low tomorrow at 3750 area followed by a huge rally till new years.

Not such a strange assumption yet it came from me and therefore silly. The moron there actually tried to convince me that a CRASH is indeed possible and no holiday season can prevent it. now that's funny as hell. I never thought in a million years I would be arguing the opposite position. AND GETTING DELETED because of it. There is an old saying "Damn if I do, damn if I don't".

[gdl]

An unhinged rant on all things great and small

FED handed the market everything they wanted to hear.. Yes the inflation problem is more ingrained and we have to watch carefully. yes we will likely have to extend the time period for adding rate hikes but don't you worry, it will be in tiny little increments of 1/4 point. Watch the PPI and CPI in round two. Not only inflation but spending. It is going to be hot hot hot. Will eventually force wall street and by extension the Fed to raise more aggressively, force the dollar way back up and 10 year yield will spike. but that takes time. All within first 3 months of 2023.

But the real damage will not be anticipated or seen till it happens. FTX and crypto was created by lobbying millions to politicians and as a result no oversight, no accounting rules, no nothing! The wild west continues. It was just an honest mistake by an overnight billionaire. The quickness of rate hikes already is about to catch some major players overextended. Just as Crypto was a disaster waiting to happen so too is this new era of inflation. we now know it is no flash in the pan as wages have finally caught up. Housing will once again find ways to extend the debt and lax safety concerns. The landmark Roe will step aside when the next two are announced this coming year. Making way for states to overturn the will of the people, restrict minorities voting access, and essentially make trumps illegal attempt at a coup legal. The Supreme Court no longer cares about impropriety or bias illegal decisions. They have an agenda as clearly as the GOP's. Unlike politicians they answer to nobody.

if I presented correctly the past 5 years of events in say 2018 all would dismiss it as mass hysteria, disgruntled Democrat. All would say it is impossible and not worthy of discussion. TODAY it is being lauded as a great change in society. There was no dramatic single moment or occurrence that switched our behavior. As stark as the political reality is today we are going thru the same in the economy. We are immune to billions being stolen in a strange new currency that isn't currency. The mortgage debacle that shook the world had come and gone in the blink of an eye. We now marginalize any abhorrent situation and twist it as just a nuisance.

Imagine a coup attempt by a narcissistic President that captured the imagination of his party and full endorsement even as they were fleeing for their very lives. Now imagine them attacking the very foundation of law and order by punishing those that didn't look the other way. The masterful completion of this madness is that now the Supreme Court is so corrupted with no guard rails they have let fly lawlessness and placed it under the umbrella of LEGAL.

Everything I presented is the truth and nothing but the truth. We the people have accepted these changes as easily as Germany accepted Hitler. There is no emotional growth or never again moment. History repeats and for a good reason. Give them what they want and complacency results. If you can't give them everything give them a scapegoat to place blame. Make their choice on who to attack an easy one. Conscription during Civil War resulted in a riot in NYC. They initially decided to attack the very wealthy. That quickly failed and they quenched their hate and anger by hanging free blacks on lamp posts. Problem solved.

History consists of those that understand how to gain and keep power. How to divert blame by using our own fears against us. But most importantly how to vent our anger against those we fear and be rewarded for it. RISE and REPEAT!

The Great Depression wasn't a coincidence of economic greed, hedonistic tendencies and political corruption. They are all connected, one and the same. The monumental disbandment of our Republic today is met with a yawn and encouragement by the people it intends to punish. ALL arguments that we are venturing into a new Bull Cycle must also accept this new political situation as a happy conclusion. Finally getting the (Conservative) policies of hate divisiveness and white supremacy. IRAN begged for this same solution. They got EXATLY what they wished for. As long as you are on the beneficial side of the equation you can relax. Who cares what it takes to stay on the right side. Sound familiar to anyone living in USA?

We will not see anything like the past 40 years for another 200 years. I can post my dire warnings some 6 to 7 years ago and while then it was laughed at and dismissed as a deranged clown these same individuals will look at it NOW and say there is nothing wrong with the path we took. Like arguing the merits of getting rid of the Jew as a plague upon us and being horrified by the thought BUT once the exterminations occur justifying it as a moral imperative for our race.

Just a matter of a minor correction in our perspective. that's the stock market today.

[gdl]

Acting like a blow off top. It spiked to barely beat the 5th wave high making it a 7th wave ON:Y if the structure is about to break down. This move today was too unexpected and irrational. Not a relief rally but more like an assumption that we just started a new Bull market. The Fibonacci turn dates were yesterday for a shorter cycle and today for a longer cycle. The dollar and yields are plunging. Doesn't make sense. A tamer inflation picture should be BULLISH for the dollar unless the prevalent notion of a recession is causing this. Problem with that is spending and wages are still going up.

The street ALWAYS has a dramatic reversal when a recession is here after a long period of strength. I don't see this recession but the street does.

I always found it fascinating that the VIX drops during huge surges but spikes when we fall. Seems a wild spike move up has much less premium to bet options than the same move downward.

[gdl]

Unexpected slowdown in CPI. Either the producers will eat the additional costs or they can't pass it on. I suspect next months reading will be a Big Jump. Nothing the FED says tomorrow will put a dent in the rally. A late holiday rally but it is definitely here. The DOW will achieve new highs before this year is out. I am perplexed how the CPI can come in so tame at such an early stage in the inflation cycle. Mid January we find out.

[gdl]

Window is just about closed. Only thru this Friday is a slim possibility. I marvel at the markets ability to build a cushion before the two biggest market movers, CPI and Fed rate hike. the street is giddy and convinced a new bull market is here. How they manage to navigate much higher rates and keep the consumer happy with spending thru ever increased debt and high mortgage payments. While it is possible to keep raising wages the best they can hope for is stagflation. The biggest elephant in the room is the past 40 years of borrowing and gambling. We will see very big defaults and major economic sectors under water in 2023.

Perhaps i got it all wrong and we thrive like the 80's? Anything's possible.

So the last gasp possible drop is right here with a 4 day window this week. Can't carry it to next week. that is an impossibility. the PPT,FED and all the powers that be will never allow that. I suspect giddy wall street started drinking a wee bit too soon and a hangover will be present by end of week. BUT I no longer see a crash.

the cushion for a drop tomorrow was made possible with the Monday rally. Maybe 50 or 100 SPX points but nothing they can't handle. I will be surprised if the FED wants to accommodate a run away holiday cheer because they have to clean up the mess after. The wording THIS TIME will be more forceful IMO declaring inflation enemy number one and not defeated by any means. 50 basis points is a given and will have no lasting affect other than a knee jerk response.

[gdl]

A positive or slightly negative move today negates any thought of a deep drop this week. In fact a positive close will set up for a big rally thru start of new year. Dollar and yields continue to languish and that speaks volumes. the street does not believe this economy can take off from here and in fact believes we slow down.

Seems my obsession that we drop hard before the holidays is about over.

[gdl]

A positive or slightly negative move today negates any thought of a deep drop this week. In fact a positive close will set up for a big rally thru start of new year. Dollar and yields continue to languish and that speaks volumes. the street does not believe this economy can take off from here and in fact believes we slow down.

Seems my obsession that we drop hard before the holidays is about over.

[gdl]

A very defined rising wedge on SPX since 11/11. Break out or down? See no reason we break out here. Inflation is not only a long problem it is about to get a whole lo worse as it has in the early 80's. The data will confirm this. There is not many left that would dare to call an impulsive drop here, and rightly so. the bets were wrong many times during this last month.

Any deep drop this week would be a shocker and unexpected except for the die-hard bear like me. BUT time is on the Bulls side as holiday spending is mandatory and will be supported at all costs. if the market starts sliding Monday I don't believe the PPT would hold it up simply because they can't risk more damage later during the heart of the holidays.

All I need to see is a close Monday below 3900 on SPX. I throw in the towel for another 30 days if Monday is not going my way. Yields, Bitcoin and the dollar should have a fast surprising move if i am right.

Bitcoin looks like it is ALSO at a major crossroad.

[gdl]

Crypto GUY equates crash of Bitcoin with SPX. Both in crash mode!

[gdl]

MONDAY is D-day! it breaks below 3900 and finishes 100 SPX points lower or we are more likely to have a good year End rally.
Odds at 25% for my next 3 day crash scenario to succeed. After Monday wiothout the breakdown it turns to near ZERO! After Monday with the breakdown it goes to 50%.

[gdl]

From 11/10 thru 12/10 we have a solidly defined wedge pattern and a FIVE WAVE move. Each wave getting higher and higher while the support is fixed between 3925 and 3945. Can there yet another wave up? Not likely. Monday we see if the support levels get taken out. if it does iit should have no support till 3700 at the minimum. the CPI report was CHANGED right after the PPI report to allow for the same .4% rise. That doesn't mean if it hits the street will be happy. To the contrary the damage was already done today.

Looking for flight back into the dollar, a crash in Bitcoin, and a stead fast move up in 10 year yields.

Setup: Once again looking for that fast drop. I believe the chances are much greater here. this is a full year IF we find a bottom very soon. That has been the average length of time to fulfill the bear market LOWS! The area at which we did currently find lows was NOT anywhere near the lows it should have established. CRASH usually required FOUR trading days and each one closing lower than the last. That would place Wednesday as the biggest drop. if only a correction it should last THREE days and drop much shallower than a crash ,ow around 3,000.

Either way the next 2 to 3 days should see steady drops and stronger ones each of the days going forward.

MONDAY we see if any of this makes sense. Got to close decidedly lower.

I have been obsessed with the notion of a crash and especially in November and December when the recent lows never came near where it should have gone. The longer this count trend runs the more likely a dramatic fast drop ends the process. I think it hit the wall already.

[gdl]

ONE PM - possible start of slide? On the MONTHLY CHARTS of SPX we have a clear almost perfect 5 wave structure and followed by a ONE WAVE overlap up. This suggests we are ONLY in wave 2 and also suggest the next drop will be equal or greater than the first. the first was 1200 SPX points down. IF 4100 was the highs of this wave 2 we should break below 3000 on SPX before recovering.

This ALL assumes the structure is not a completed 5 wave down move. big assumption but implication on downside is dramatic.

BTW the absolute most helpful FREE site to use for all things involving Stock market is "Investing.com". Look it over. has everything, economic calendar for government reports like this PPI, stochastics on charts from 1 minute to 1 month on most indices and stocks. I tried telling the GURU on another site but he preferred they JUST listen to him.

[gdl]

Market forming a rising wedge for the whole 30 days. Five larger waves each time but basing at the 3925-50 area each time, this during the biggest holiday season of year. Time to decide. Breakout of down. TODAY is turning out much the same, seesaw back and forth in a very narrow tight range. Seems the consumer is doing just fine and NO RECESSION is in sight. NONE! Inflation is continuing the way it did in the early 80's, straight up.

I marvel at the ability of investors to focus on the positive and completely discard the negative. For a balanced review they would see earnings projections are not only weak but getting weaker as we speak.

The 30 day nowhere market has to decide and it can't meander here for another month. We either breakout in a decisive way or breakdown in a dramatic way. The timeline is squeezed. A drop below 3900 this time sends it quickly to 3750. SIX attempts in the last 1.5 hours with spike moves just above flat and each time, so far, revert back down.

TODAY to stall a deep drop soon it MUST breakout and stay in the GREEN at closing.

Stubborn market. Every time the market looks like it is about to roll over the cliff we see candlestick patterns pop up that is bullish. Seems so far they front run the move. Can't do it forever especially when reality is so stark you must ignore the technical readings from these option plays.

I now count SEVEN attempts to go green. When will the market decide? Still believe today and still believe we break below 3900.

[gdl]

Interesting times. If the street still clings to a pivot or speech on Wednesday that deviated from his last few we will indeed hold up. I suspect, no know that he has no choice but to pound home the same remarks he made before. THIS TIME the street will ignore his 50 basis point move and concentrate on his talk on future inflation. Since we already got confirmation that inflation is spiking higher once again I guess they need to hear it from the FED what we already know. INFALTION IS PERSISTENT. AND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

PRETTY SURE WE GAP DOWN TO 3750 SOON. if that holds it would do so, once again, at levels that suggest we have not finished this wave down. Minimum 3200.

[gdl]

As expected a big number on the PPI. market trying to shrug it off. If they do it only makes the CPI number all the more dramatic. I suspect however we start the slide here. WHY? The employment report and wage spike should do it.

If not I add more PUTS for Tuesday debacle leading into Wednesday FED announcement. I guess when the FED says they are slowing the pace of rate hikes AND sees persistent inflation they kind of skipped the last part. not anymore. What it means is that the wuss FED gave a holiday treat so there is no major drop in market till after we all spend our money.

Interesting to see the market shrug this off today.

ONCE it breaks 3900 we drop to 3700. First stop and it should easily be by Tuesday. I am sure this time around the Fed announcement will actually listen when they state that INFLATION is more persistent than thought. They gave a gift to the retailers this holiday by delaying the inevitable rate spike.

[gdl]

NOW we see if my assumption for Friday is correct. It should set up for a nice move from start to finish. I have no real idea if the PPI is bad or good. I do have a bias that this move ended today. we shall now find out.

A 100 SPX point move seems the least it should do tomorrow given the long hold at the last support/resistance area. Which ever way it starts it should build on either up or down. Next 3 to 5 trading days should explode up or down.

[gdl]

Obviously not a big move today. Tomorrow is a turn date but that could mean anything from mild reversal to major. We saw 5 waves up recently but it can rebound into a seventh. Option traders betting a deep drop here. PPI should shake the market only if the result is strong. Any decent drop has to occur within days, before the holiday spending. The street is obsessed still with a recession as the dollar and yields continue to stall.

We are at critical levels and that only means we should either breakdown or breakout.

[gdl]

Core PPI YoY is in the stratosphere. That is not as important as seeing a steady drop month over month. Tomorrow it is expected to be flat from prior month. if it hits .4% or higher the street will react negatively. if it is benign MY assumption of a crash here is way off. I truly believe this ONE Measurement is that important to keep th hope up that inflation will be tamed soon. The JOBs, wages, spending, service sector has moved right back into the inflation scenario that is not tame and in fact still out of control.

the major analysis are obsessed with a recession around the corner. With these recent numbers it seems vey unlikely. it is true that a reversal by the FED on inflation is actually very bad for the immediate stock market I do not see that scenario unfolding yet. So it is possible we continue on this recovery even with nagging inflation.

I also worry that the investor is still anxiously betting for a crash here. It seems my views are not so uncommon and every time it seems we could collapse the Put/Call ratio goes nuts. It is nuts today meaning they see still a crash ahead. That doesn;t negate the possibility only that many are aligned for a crash.

[gdl]

So far it is following the path of the last wave up. I doubt we get that high but the next 5 hours might be straight up. The turn date is tomorrow and i was wondering when we have any upside before the turn. It might be just one day of upside. if it suggests another wave up that would negate any chance for a sharp drop before Christmas.

I will probably place my bet before 2:30 PM today.

Just read the Put/Call ratio is again Insane AT 1.48. That suggests they are positioned for a deep drop here. This one sided bet has proven wrong 4 other times.

[gdl]

For very immediate market move. Just saw a possible SPIKE move from start of day lasting 4 hours. It could actually run 150 SPX points.
Possibly the last day of an upside move. Might get dramatic retrace and much further on Friday (IF) PPI is bad.

[gdl]

For IMMEDIATE market movement proposal: 2:30 12/6 saw the lows and start of a slow grind up. I suspect the highs will be seen exactly 2 day later on 12/8 at 2:30. Not sure how high other than exceeding 3955 on SPX. FIRST we have to close higher than the lows set on 12/6. Secondly we have to continue the move upward all day tomorrow till 2:30.

IF we have this become fact I will probably make my short term best at that time.

[gdl]

The cosmos is contracting ready to accelerate the next BIG BANG! From the GOP after 6 years of Nazi platform has criticized the modern day Hitler for his constant display of hatred for JEWS and BLACKS. They don't intend to change their platform only make it less transparent and harsh. They also thank Trump for giving them this new path to success while not so gently telling him to move over. The Supreme Courts agenda is no less frightening or less understood. In their case they need no opinion or guidance to forge ahead on the most radical dictatorial platform of them all. Forget that One Judge has a family united in the pledge to overthrow this government illegally, forget that recusal is out of the question, forget that another judge purposely leaked drafts of decisions to favor his crones for paying up on the Judges favorite institution. Forget that they will IMMEDIATELY take on TWO radical cases sure to change the fundamental 3 branch divide. One on same sex marriages. the other on States ability to dictate their own rules on self management, gerrymandering, and even place strict restrictions on who can vote in their state. not just who but even if they will overthrow the will of their citizens.

HUGE HUGE HUGE implications to speed up the total destruction of our republic. Like the decision to treat blacks as furniture this is perhaps even more startling. Then we already had Blacks as non voting creatures and most states adopted slavery. In this instance we are reversing the long established notion that people can vote unrestricted and have their vote count. I have a strong opinion based on previous actions by FOUR of the Supreme Court Judges and it stands to reason BOTH cases will favor the dismantling of our Republic!

These cases are so huge and earth shattering that it will likely get relegated into obscurity with a one day denouncement by the Press. TRUMP, one lunatic man has succeeded in taking down the entire system. granted many were looking for such a person to step up. So in short order i expect in 2023 to see landmark decisions more monumental than the overturning of Roe vs Wade. Implication: Gays will have NO LEGAL RIGHTS and be forced to jump back into the closet. Blacks, minorities, Muslims and Jews will be under the whim of each state to declare whether they have rights or not. ANY state controlled by angry white men will have total control of those states FOREVER as they lock out any representation by their own citizens. A coup that will hold without a single shot fired. It ONLY took THREE YEARS for a one sentence legal statement to finally be enforced. It was as unambiguous as 1 plus 1. the tax returns from our Furor has been allowed to be seen but only long enough for the REPUKS to shut it down.

What country are we living in? What time period?

[gdl]

IF today is another drop and it is controlled odds on we don't get the dramatic finish to this wave structure anytime soon. If we actually hold up and close positive we can see such a dramatic drop starting Friday and ending no later than Wednesday.

The Holiday season implies a good month for the stock market especially when November caused all bears to concede. We do have the PPT and if they can control this next slide we have a longer steady slow drop ahead. If they can't control the drop, or they want it over soon before Christmas, we should have a very tight window for such a crash. It has to occur before next FRIDAY! 3500 on SPX is a given but more likely 3000 will be the lows.

I had hoped we get a good decent rebound today with follow thru on Thursday. We are still hovering at support but the weak attempt to rally so far suggests we might not get that rebound after all. if I was in control of the PPT I would want the dramatic drop to occur BEFORE the 2 biggest holidays. WHY? It would allow for a really dramatic rebound almost equal to the crash. It would put people in a good (greedy) mood. But this is pure speculation on my part and i have no idea if there i a PPT that can orchestrate such an event.

One thought sticks in my mind. If the FED already knows what the November reading on PPI/CPI are they might setting this play up? It can work both ways. if the news is good, slowing inflation, they might just want a controlled slide till the report comes out to allow for a holiday celebration. If the news is bad, accelerating inflation, they might ALREADY be holding back the drop and the result is a constant slide. They might actually want the bulk of the slide to be concentrated in a capitulation style low before the holidays. Keep the pent up demand or capitulation in a coil.

Just my mind wandering and trying to justify the current move that makes sense and more importantly the immediate future.

[gdl]

Pathetic move today. if we can't close in the green on all indices today we are already in the major slide. Need to see a 2 day rebound before the dramatic drop. No rebound here suggests a slow draw down is already here even approaching the holidays.

[gdl]

Average drop recently lasts no more than 4 days. this was the 4th day. I need to see over next 2 days a decent rally recovering at least half of the drop. I will probably bet the Straddle late Thursday. Perhaps i put more emphasis on the PUTS but today I am not sure.

Is there any hint of what is to come out of the PPI and CPI report? Wish I knew beforehand.

The CRYPTO GUY has been calling for a crash in both Bitcoin and SPX for a few days now.

[gdl]

Non farm productivity and labor costs come out BEFORE the opening tomorrow. I suspect it will not be pretty but a non-event nonetheless.

I need to see a rebound tomorrow and follow thru on Thursday. BIG BIG DAY on Friday. It can be a non-event but still a big day regardless. WHY?

The PPI has been trending down for months. Still higher than normal but as long as it stays trending down the street will view this as confirmation the underlying inflation problem is gone.

SO if the market has recovered somewhat before the open on Friday it can make the current jitters EXPLODE or have a relief rally, a BIG ONE!

Friday determines if we have that rally into the New Year, as everyone expects -or- finish the bear wave before any decent rally can ensue. Unfinished is my take. So we finish the first stage of a long deep drop or we wait till January. My current assumption is we drop HERE and NOW!
I say this simply because the valuation and way we formed a bottom was not in line with almost every major bear market. Not even close!

BULL and BEAR alike is expecting an easy steady upside move till New Years. Some think a big move while other a small one.

heck for all i know we have started the crash.

IF the PPI is a big number we drop very hard. No doubts what so ever!
If the PPI is tame or low we get a relief rally.

I DO NOT SEE a boring Friday and in turn the follow thru for Monday. best most logical bet would be a STRADDLE PLAY!

The PPI started the huge spike move up last time. Will it do a repeat? Will it do the exact opposite of last time?

[gdl]

Today we get Trump doubling down on his insanity and the exposed true nature of the white man in this USA. The GOP couldn’t give a shit if not for the losing streak of Trump. Had Hitler performed this badly he would not have ruled the country.

I find it truly scary that everything is coming to a head at the end of 2022. I seem to be the only sensitive soul or perhaps I see something not there ? Will not have to wait long to know.

[gdl]

Today we get Trump doubling down on his insanity and the exposed true nature of the white man in this USA. The GOP couldn’t give a shit if not for the losing streak of Trump. Had Hitler performed this badly he would not have ruled the country.

I find it truly scary that everything is coming to a head at the end of 2022. I seem to be the only sensitive soul or perhaps I see something not there ? Will not have to wait long to know.

[gdl]

What do i see and what do i expect? The SPX is at 4000. I see a crash to 3000. Timeframe from start to finish 4 trading days.

I am expecting the slide to START late in the week and NOT NOW! if it is now we should see a nasty drop tomorrow and a final move on Thursday.
BUT I highly doubt that happens. I actually see the start of the slide maybe this Thursday and finish Tuesday the 13th.

The setup could not be any more perfect for such a scenario. it is text book deflection. A true shock to the market as everyone is positioning for a rally this holiday. ALL, not just the bulls and neutral parties.

I worry that it can be spoiled early. Did NOT expect a slide this big today. All depends on how the market opens tomorrow. Timing is everything!

[gdl]

The investor is justifying staying bullish and will reluctantly buy CALLS here. They seem to have forgotten WHY the rally started in the first place. Seems what started it can't be what finishes it? yes the human being has a propensity to find excuses to be bullish and doubts the long drawn out Bear looking for any glimmer of hope to change direction. Boy has the whole crowd changed direction. the VIX is proof of that!

Now i HOPE we can manage to build upside tomorrow. IF we are to have a crash it usually happens on the second bounce that fails to reach the top of the first bounce. A drawn out drop from here is not what i want or expect.

TOMORROW is absolutely critical. we need a calm start at open and a momentum building rally. Since the holiday season is already here the bias should always be in favor of a rally. Can we wait till the PPI report? Seems logical but markets don't always behave.

I can't believe i am actually rooting for a rally. Now that's bizarre. The PPT might have some work to do to calm the markets for now. Lets see just how one sided the market is now. I suspect greed takes over and we start slow and build to a decent rally these next 3 days.

That's my plan anyway. Bitcoin has held and that is also a good sign.

[gdl]

Just under? 3998. Now we hope and pray the lack of data over next 2 days pushes this sucker back up. IF we start out decidedly down tomorrow odds of an early crash is much higher. I need to see ONE LAST GASP UP. A three day miracle! Lets see if GREED and Pavlov is working.

This mega bear hopes for a decent open and build on the upside thru the rest of day and thru Thursday.

[gdl]

NEED TO SEE A CLOSE TODAY ABOVE 4000 on SPX. Yes this BEAR is counting on a support established today. if it holds without any more economic data till Friday I expect a rebound and even possibly a double top from recent levels.

Everyone, i mean ever single person on this planet sees a holiday rally unfold and will be salivating on their good luck to move in on any weakness. That's my take. BUT WE MUST CLOSE ABOVE 4,000.

Cross my fingers and hope the dumb slow witted market Monster hasn't yet realized a huge club has been beating his head in since the Jobs Report.

[gdl]

My long term expectations has been solidified since i started making it known 7 years ago.

The political arena, like the recent bear market, seems destined for a recovery. Wishful thinking. In both cases it will get a whole lot worse and in a new category of bad. The market for years to come, more like decades, will see a disdain for investing and rightly so. The political arean will be even more frightening. it will infiltrate the stronghold of liberal states. The Supreme Court, a branch that hold the most dominance and disdain for the rule of law will lead in the march for dictatorial rule. The GOP will finally learn to adapt Trumps method and discard their conscience in the process. A total transformation.

This all will be made possible by a depression and government sanction to vent frustration on the weakest and most easily hated.

I POUNDED THE TABLE on the start of Pandemic. I am pounding away once again on a KNOWN future. One where it is IMPOSSIBLE to change or ignore. the process has obviously started but has not come close to the deepest trough of the whole process. We first have to bottom before we can crawl out. That is a far far away setup.

[gdl]

With jobs, wages, factory orders and service sector we have a good picture of economy. hate to break it to anyone but INFLATION is a live and well.
WHT the dollar and yields are so low is anyone's guess and unless i am wrong it will reverse back up fast and furious. the next reading we get is an important one, PPI on Friday. I suspect we hold up till then. Depending on the extent of any unexpected reading we could start a fast and steep drop. Still have no idea if that will happen but there are concerns. It would stretch the imagination that we can drop hard in December but stranger thaings have happened.

[gdl]

The PCE report today was the important one and not tomorrows IMO. Stayed near record highs at 5%. Market shrugged it off.
Even the Bitcoin chart has some life ot it even though so many are convinced of an immediate drop here. Same with the stock market. The 200 day was thought never to be reached but it did intra-day. Will it break above soon? if so we have another possible spike move up.

Irony is that NO ONE, bull or bear, dares to even suggest a crash in December. that would be sacrosanct. I happen agree.

On the other hand all is salivating on the crash coming immediately in 2023. With this many charting out the future in sync i worry we could be very wrong One day at a time. Tomorrows report should have little affect. We shall soon find out.

[gdl]

Some sobering reasons to stay focused. Todays reports and comments

Every time in the last 60 years that the Fed has pivoted from raising rates or ceasing to raise rates the market has plunged. See the Dot Com top and the 07 top and the 20 top for a few.
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(Reuters) -Wall Street slipped on Thursday as a contraction in manufacturing activity last month clouded data showing a mild easing in inflation and solid consumer spending, while a fall in Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) shares dragged the Dow lower.

U.S. manufacturing activity shrank for the first time in 2-1/2 years in November as higher borrowing costs weighed on demand for goods, and proved to be a trigger for investors to book profits following a rally in the previous session.

Markets were boosted earlier on Thursday following a reading from the Commerce Department, which showed consumer spending, that accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.8% after an unrevised 0.6% increase in September.

"Obviously the (manufacturing) sector is in recession and this basically upholds the fact that we're headed for a recession," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities

Weighing the most on the Dow Jones Industrial Average was Salesforce Inc, which tumbled 9.9% after the software maker said Bret Taylor would step down as co-chief executive officer in January.

Dollar General Corp (NYSE:DG) fell 8.7% after the discount retailer cut its annual profit forecast, while Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ:COST) shed 6.6% after the membership-only retail chain reported slower sales growth in November.

"Yesterday's move was so crazy large, this is probably just some natural profit taking," Rusty Vanneman, chief investment strategist at Orion Advisor Solutions, said.
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FAST MONEY ‘Wild ride’: Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson predicts double-digit percentage drop will hit stocks in early 2023
Investors may be on the doorstep of a deep pullback.

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, who has an S&P 500 year-end target of 3,900 for next year, warns corporate America is getting ready to unleash downward earnings revisions that will pummel stocks.

“It’s the path. I mean nobody cares about what’s going to happen in 12 months. They need to deal with the next three to six months,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday. “That’s where we actually think there’s significant downside. So, while 3,900 sounds like a really boring six months. No... it’s going to be a wild ride.”

Wilson, who serves as the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer, believes the S&P could drop as much as 24% from Tuesday’s close in early 2023.
======================================================================Recap: Street quick to conclude the FED will reverse course soon. Every time that happened in the last 60 years we had a plunging market. (This has NOT been verified). Accelerated spending by consumer as manufacturing is dramatically slowing and earnings continues to be split between the winners and losers. Dramatic reversals in stocks market seen and immediately ahead.

I have been shouting this scenario for a while and kept losing money thinking the street would realize their mistake. I was seen as a crazy man till big brokerage firm like Morgan said the exact same thing! All I can hope for is the street ignore all this doom and gloom stuff till Next Year. It would make TIMING the next plunge that much easier.

[restripe]

Well if that’s what you think I better go to short

[gdl]

We are in the SWEET SPOT! Market is telegraphing that we are in a new bull cycle and everyone agrees. The confirmation to support it is the dollars demise and 10 year yields breaking down. The street assumes with this recessionary pattern they would not dare keep raising rates. Stagflation is the worse scenario for profits, absolutely worse. I suspect we will be talking about this till JUNE of 2023 as the FED is forced to keep raising rates.

I now don't believe we get any decent retrace UNLESS the Data points from economic activity shows a big miss. So far it is consistent.

This holiday should be explosively bullish.

[gdl]

It Is Official: New Bull market is HERE! I told ya DOW would see NEW HIGHS before New Year.

Stock market today: Dow enters bull market as Powell talks up slower hikes ahead nvesting.com -- The Dow closed in bull market territory after racking up gains on Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s signal that rate hikes could slow as soon as next month triggered a sea of green in big tech as Treasury yields slumped.

[gdl]

The GOP condemns White Supremist. Greene, Boebert, and the whole party! They met and decided they can hide their policies from the brain dead voter, get rid of trump who is dragging them down, and still maintain their hate of minorities in a more sneaky way. No longer is it fashionable to announce your bigotry.

the new GOP is just a wolf in sheep's clothing. the new bull market is as ridiculous and transparent, if you want to see that is.

Like i stated many times. The Q's have to lead and by a wide margin this last stage up. At 2:35 it is up 3%. The whole market is reacting like there was a hidden meaning in Powell's speech. All we have is 1.5 hours to go and the Holiday Party has started!

[gdl]

All the market has to do from 2 PM to 4 PM is close near the highs of the day, especially the Q's. What that does is ASSURE the next resistance level will be reached. if it fails dramatically today the surprise drop has a much greater chance of happening and soon. the street NO LONGER needs the FED meeting to either rally or drop. the news is/was TODAY! Reaction off of it is like the December 6th meeting. it will be revealed TODAY!

The DOW has a clear path IF DOW holds up strongly by close. 3600 minimum BEFORE Year End!

[gdl]

Investing.com -- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the pace of rate hikes is likely to slow, but the peak level of rates will be higher than previously expected as there is a long way to go to curb above-trend inflation.

The street, like hearing about a pandemic, responded without Common Sense and with extrema bias. A GREAT way to catch the next great crash.
it just announced the timeline. it is short. how short? Maybe, just maybe based on seasonality we hold off the deluge till New Year.

Q's had to lead and has to immediately SPIKE much higher than any other indices It has to lead the rest of year. Imagine Powell WARNING that INFLATION will be longer and higher than previously expected but the street knows that's a lie because he will ONLY raise rates by 50 basis points.

Selective facts, selective bias, selective rally till the investor wakes up from a bad hangover. You know this does remind me of the early part of 2022 and the early announcement of a world pandemic. ONLY question is when does the drop start and if it will accelerate quickly into a crash or not.

The badly beaten up Q's has a great run in front of it IF the market stays the course. I mean double or triple the other indices on the upside.

[gdl]

OIL inventories PLUNGED! Way below any estimate. JOLTS report showed a HUGE number of jobs begging to be taken.
Bottom LINE: Dollar will NOT be able to drop further as the world economies continues to break down below US. Resilient spending by the consumer will not allow the FED to stop raising rates and the prospect for accelerated inflation is actually heightened as they slow down the pace of hikes.

From very weak earnings, no clarity on stronger earnings going forward, refusal of the consumer to cave in here means that the pronouncement of some large brokerage firms that fair value was 3,000 on SPX will only make 2023 al the more glaringly out of sync.

I am glad of seasonality. it should hold this sucker up till new year. AT least that what i see so far.