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Alphabet Gains the Upper Hand
By: Bespoke Investment Group | August 14, 2023
The writing has been on the wall all year - Microsoft beat Google to the punch, and despite its past dominance, with the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, Google was destined to take a backseat to Microsoft in the AI boom. The list of articles below is just a sampling of the ink and pixels that have been spent documenting the impeding collapse of Google and the rise of Microsoft in online search and business productivity tools:
"Thanks to OpenAI, Microsoft is beating Google in the artificial intelligence game" - Vox, 1/26/23
"Microsoft packs Bing search engine, Edge browser with AI in big Challenge to Google" - Reuters, 2/7/23
"Thanks to ChatGPT, Microsoft can finally beat Google" - Business Insider, 2/7/23
"'AI First' To Last: How Google Fell Behind In The AI Boom" - Forbes, 2/8/23
"Investors' query: Can Google answer Microsoft's AI threat" - AP News, 2/8/23
"How Google Ran Out of Ideas" - The Atlantic, 2/16/23
"How Google Became Cautious of AI and Gave Microsoft an Opening" - Wall Street Journal, 3/7/23
"Google Devising Radical Search Changes to Beat Back A.I. Rivals" - New York Times, 4/16/23
"Google Lost $57 Billion in One Day, Because Microsoft is Leading the AI Race" - Robb Report, 4/18/23
"Microsoft 'holding a lot of the cards' in AI-powered search war with Google" - Yahoo Finance, 4/26/23
For much of the first half of 2023, shares of Microsoft (MSFT) outperformed the overall market and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) based on the sentiment of the articles above and ones like them. Back in early February, when Alphabet rushed its AI answer to Microsoft's Bing powered by ChatGPT, the company lost more than $100 billion in market value in a single day after Bard gave a factually incorrect answer during its introduction to the world. It looked like a major PR disaster for Alphabet management, but Bard's error shed light on a a key aspect of AI chat bots in general, namely that they all have a tendency to give wrong answers. Even when it comes to queries involving seemingly straightforward arithmetic, ChatGPT often gets the answer wrong.
Just as ChatGPT increasingly gives wrong information, the obituaries for Google also turned out to be wrong, as last week, shares of GOOGL surpassed MSFT in terms of performance since the launch of ChatGPT. Through late morning on Monday (8/14), GOOGL was up just under 30% (29.6%) compared to MSFT's gain of 26.4%. Maybe it's just a coincidence, but we found it interesting that the most recent peak in MSFT's stock came within days of the headline below.
"ChatGPT users fall for first time, spurring questions about AI boom" - Washington Post, 7/7/23
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Alphabet $GOOG is looking ripe for a break out of this tight post-earnings wedge
By: TrendSpider | August 14, 2023
• $GOOG Google is looking ripe for a break out of this tight post-earnings wedge.
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Unfortunately decreasing volume speaks volumes as its just bull trapping back to $120 level for now
Alphabet Inc. $GOOGL one of the few AI names holding strong, gap being tested but holding so far.. if this one rolls very bad sign
By: Options Mike | August 13, 2023
• $GOOGL one of the few AI names holding strong, gap being tested but holding so far.. if this one rolls very bad sign.
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Waymo LLC, formerly known as the Google Self-Driving Car Project, is an American autonomous driving technology company headquartered in Mountain View, California.
It is a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google. Wikipedia
Parent organization: Alphabet Inc.
https://waymo.com/
**********Full Commercialization of Robotaxis Arrives in San Francisco***********
...Waymo said it has a permit for 250 AVs and deploys about 100 at any given time. Cruise said it operates 100 cars in San Francisco during the day and 300 at night. So the current fleets are relatively small. But with full commercialization, the fleets are bound to get much larger....
Aug 11, 2023
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/08/11/full-commercialization-of-robotaxis-has-arrived-in-san-francisco/
WOW....
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest Sells 8,153 Shares of Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)
By: Ark Invest Daily | August 10, 2023
• Cathie Wood and Ark Invest's trade activity from today 8/10 $TSLA $NVDA.
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$GOOGL $AMZN coming in later than usual but now seeing larger DP size the big boys
By: FLOWrensics | August 9, 2023
• $GOOGL $AMZN coming in later than usual but now seeing larger DP size the big boys.
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GOOGLE IS FULL OF ALPHABET PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
DISGUSTING!!!!!!!!
is there a holiday today in the USA
Google $GOOG looking constructive above its previous 2023 highs, if mega-cap tech can catch a bid look for this name to lead the way.
By: TrendSpider | August 7, 2023
• $GOOG Google looking constructive above its previous 2023 highs, if mega-cap tech can catch a bid look for this name to lead the way.
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Alphabet Inc. $GOOGL Teasing that gap, so like $META on watch for a cute short if we roll over
By: Options Mike | August 6, 2023
• $GOOGL Teasing that gap, so like $META on watch for a cute short if we roll over.
Stil has go to status for me.
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Google-parent Alphabet offloads nearly 90% stake in trading app Robinhood
By: Investing.com | August 4, 2023
(Reuters) -Google-parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) said on Friday it had slashed its stake in Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) Markets by nearly 90%, days after the trading app said it had turned a profit for the first time as a public company.
Robinhood has been struggling to regain its footing after emerging as the breakout financial technology app during the pandemic, when several retail traders were drawn to its platform because of its commission-free trades and easy-to-use interface.
The Federal Reserve's tightening cycle last year hammered equities, especially high-flying tech stocks in which there was a lot of retail interest, denting Robinhood's business.
Shares of the company, whose trading platform was at the center of a meme stock frenzy in January 2021, have lost 86% since hitting their peak in August of the same year.
Earlier this week, Robinhood said it had earned 3 cents per share in the second quarter, while analysts were expecting a loss of 1 cent, according to Refinitiv data.
However, as retail traders stayed cautious due to volatile market conditions, monthly active users at the platform decreased to 10.8 million, one million fewer compared to the first quarter and 3.2 million lesser than last year.
To counter this weakness in its mainstay trading business, Menlo Park, California-based Robinhood is looking for new revenue streams. In June, it agreed to buy financial technology and credit card firm X1 for about $95 million.
In its regulatory filing, Alphabet said it had around 612,214 shares in Robinhood as of June 30, compared with 4.9 million shares in the first quarter ended March 31.
As of Robinhood's last close on Thursday, Alphabet's stake would be worth just about $7 million, according to Reuters calculations.
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$GOOG First monthly MACD cross to the upside for Google since May of 2020! The three other times this happened, the following month was green with an average return of +3.31%
By: TrendSpider | July 31, 2023
• $GOOG First monthly MACD cross to the upside for Google since May of 2020!
The three other times this happened, the following month was green with an average return of +3.31%
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Alphabet (GOOG) Gushes Forth Record Free Cash Flow, Making GOOG Stock Cheap
By: Barchart | July 31, 2023
Alphabet (GOOG) reported a massive gain in its free cash flow (FCF) for Q2, up 73% YoY from $12.59 billion to $21.778 billion. That was even 26.5% higher than its Q1 FCF of $17.22 billion. This means GOOG stock, at $133.01 on July 28, is still too cheap, despite a recent runup prior to the earnings release on July 25.
It also means that buying long-term call options and shorting near-term out-of-the-money put options is still a very good income strategy for long-term GOOG stockholders. That is especially the case since Alphabet still does not either pay dividends.
On the other hand, Alphabet has been repurchasing large amounts of its shares. That is a very good use of its free cash flow and works out to their benefit in the long run.
For example, last quarter Alphabet spent $29 billion on share buybacks. At an annualized rate ($118 billion), that works out to almost 7% of its $1.689 trillion market capitalization (i.e., $118.1 b/$1,688.8 b = 6.99%).
Alphabet Q2 earnings - FCF compared to prior periods
Free Cash Flow Reigns
FCF is the amount of revenue left over after all its cash expenses as well as its capex spending (which is not deducted on the income statement). Moreover, FCF also deducts changes in working capital (also not deducted).
So, in effect, this “leftover” cash flow is “free” to be spent on discretionary things like acquisitions, dividends, buybacks, etc. That is why Alphabet's FCF is so important since it funds the company's massive buyback program.
As it stands, Alphabet's valuation does not reflect this powerful free cash flow. If we annualized its 21.778 billion Q2 FCF it works to a 5.1% FCF yield (i.e., $87.1 b/$1,688.8 b). This is a higher FCF yield than other comparable stocks (i.e., that means GOOG stock is too cheap).
For example, Microsoft (MSFT) reported about $19.8 billion in FCF in Q2, or $79.3 billion on a forward annualized basis. However, since MSFT stock has a $2,515 billion market cap, its FCF yield is much lower at 3.15% (i.e., $79.3 b/ $2,515 b).
This implies that GOOG stock could have a higher valuation on a comp basis. This can be seen by dividing its $21.778 billion FCF (actually $87.1 billion on an annualized basis) by the 3.15% FCF yield from MSFT stock. That produces a market cap of $2,765 billion. This is 63.7% higher than its present market cap of $1.689 trillion.
That implies that GOOG stock could rise 67% from $133.01 today to $217.88 per share. Traders can use that target price to make good options trades.
Long Call And Short Put Options Strategies
Assuming GOOG stock will rise 67% to $218 over the next year, bullish traders can afford to pay a reasonable premium for call options that expire in the next 4 four months or so. For example, the Nov. 17 call options for the $155 strike price, which is 16.5% over today's spot price of $133.01, trade for just $2.02 per call.
That makes the breakeven price at just $157.02, or 18% over today's price. But if the trader believes that GOOG stock is worth well over $200 (i.e. $217.88 target price), paying that premium for an option that does not expire for 111 days could be worth it.
GOOG Calls - Expiring Nov. 17, 2023 - As of July 28 - Barchart
For example, let's say that the stock starts to approach $180 per share by the end of Oct. That means that at the minimum the call option would be worth $25.00 (i.e., $180-$155) on an intrinsic basis. Moreover, the actual call premium will be higher due to extrinsic value since there is still time left for its expiration.
But the bottom line is that assuming GOOG stock rises 35% to $180, the call option buyer today would make at least 11x their investment (i.e., $25/$2.02-1).
Another way, perhaps in combination with this strategy, is to short out-of-the-money put options. That produces income that could be used to pay for the long-call options that are bought.
For example, for the option expiration period ending Aug 25, 27 days from now, the $130 strike price puts trade for $2.76 per put contract. This works out to a 2.12% yield (i.e., $2.76/$130) and more than pays for the $2.02 long call option premium, with 74 cents per contract left over.
GOOG Puts - Expiring Aug. 25, 2023 - As of July 28 - Barchart
This means that the investor first secures $13,000 in cash and or margin (including from owning any GOOG shares) with their brokerage firm. Then they can then enter an order to “Sell to Open” 1 put contract at the $130.00 strike price
As a result, the brokerage account will immediately receive $276, which works out to a 2.12% yield on the $13,000 investment. That $276 can then be used to purchase one call option for $202 at $155.00 for expiration on Nov. 17. In effect, then, the call option purchase is free and clear.
The downside risk is if GOOG stock falls by over 2.2% to $130 or lower. Then the $13,000 held in cash and/or margin will be exercised and automatically used by the brokerage firm to force a purchase of 100 shares at $130 per share. That may or may not result in an unrealized loss. Nevertheless, the trader still owns the 1 call option, having paid for it with the income generated by the short-put play.
Moreover, at that point, the investor can short near-term out-of-the-money calls to help cover any potential unrealized loss.
This shows that there are good ways to play GOOG stock, given how cheap it is due to its powerful free cash flow.
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Alphabet Inc. $GOOGL Great report and guidance. Cloud killing it! Messy chart back to 150 ATH, but like the report
By: Options Mike | July 30, 2023
• $GOOGL Great report and guidance. Cloud killing it! Messy chart back to 150 ATH, but like the report.
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$GOOG Unusual options bubble chart shows overwhelmingly call heavy positioning through January of 2024.
By: TrendSpider | July 28, 2023
• $GOOG Unusual options bubble chart shows overwhelmingly call heavy positioning through January of 2024.
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Google $GOOG the star of the show this week, blasting through fib resistance and the volume point of control with authority!
By: TrendSpider | July 28, 2023
• $GOOG Google the star of the show this week, blasting through fib resistance and the volume point of control with authority!
Follow the leader?
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Alphabet $GOOGL - Pulse! Thru the Uppr-Band...
By: Sahara | July 28, 2023
• $GOOGL $NYFANG - Pulse!
Thru the Uppr-Band...
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Sold my calls here, looks like Big Board stocks taking a break, SPY topped out at 459.44 today and will pull back now imo
I think my numbers are correct on this but in all honesty I didn't own it at the time, pulled it off of charts, and it was a while ago when I did the math. I was tracking high flyers that were presenting opportunity's. I tracked a 50% drop number (calculated off the highs) on all of them as a starting thought on building into positions but most dropped quite a bit more as I watched and tracked them. Some ended up off 90% from their highs. GOOGL never even hit that 50% drop number. The low is stated.
GOOGL
$151.55 H on 2/2/22 (reflecting 20/1 Split: 7/18/22 @3031)
50% drop # @ $75.775 (from split price)
$83.34 L on 11/3/22 (-44.79% off of High)
http://www.splithistory.com/?symbol=Goog
But this seems wonky.
GOOG Split History Table
Date Ratio
03/27/2014 2002 for 1000
04/27/2015 10027455 for 10000000
07/18/2022 20 for 1
http://www.splithistory.com/?symbol=googl
GOOGL Split History Table
Date Ratio
04/03/2014 1998 for 1000
07/18/2022 20 for 1
The only one I saw was the 20/1 which finally offered me an opportunity to start buying GOOGL. I chose GOOGL over GOOG because of voting rights.
Oh, I have that! Hold please
How many forward splits
A while back $83.45
Think about that! That's nuts!
A GOOG low. 11/3/22
$83.34 Low on its counter part GOOGL
Alphabet (GOOGL) Stock Hits 52-Week High After Earnings
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | July 26, 2023
• Alphabet reported strong second-quarter results
• Analysts are blasting the stock with price-target hikes
All eyes are on Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) today, after the Big Tech giant's strong second-quarter report. Analysts praised the company's steady growth in its cloud business, noting that it is well-positioned to compete with Microsoft's (MSFT) artificial intelligence (AI), with no fewer than 28 brokerages lifting their price targets after the event.
The company also announced that chief financial officer (CFO) Ruth Porat would assume the position of president and chief investment officer -- a newly created position. Porat will remain in the current role until the position is filled, however.
At last glance, GOOGL was up 6.7% at $130.41, and trading at fresh one-year highs. Year-to-date, the equity is up 47.8%.
So far in the options pits, 338,000 calls and 154,000 puts have been exchanged, which is four times the amount typically seen at this point. Expiring at the end of this week, the weekly 7/28 130-strike and 131-strike calls are the most active contracts, with new positions being opened at both.
Options bulls have been targeting the stock before today, as well. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), GOOGL's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.81 ranks higher than 95% of readings from the past year.
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Alphabet $1.2 Million+ Put Sweeps • Strike: 132.5 • Expiration: 1/19/24
By: Cheddar Flow | July 26, 2023
• $GOOGL / $GOOG $1.2M+ Put Sweeps (Opening Orders)
Strike: 132.5
Expiration: 1/19/24
*At the Ask*
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Alphabet CFO Ruth Porat leaving role to become president and chief investment officer
Jul 25 2023
Jennifer Elias and Deirdre Bosa and Kif Leswing for CNBC
Alphabet CFO Ruth Porat to take on new role as chief investment officer Ruth Porat will step down as Alphabet’s chief financial officer and take a new role as president and chief investment officer, the company announced on Tuesday.
She took over as CFO for Google in 2015 and oversaw the transition into the company’s current Alphabet structure.
Nice call I got 30 125 calls end of month expiry wheeeeee
History of Google’s $GOOGL Q2 Revenue and Net Income
By: Evan | July 25, 2023
• History of Google’s $GOOGL Q2 Revenue and Net Income
Revenue:
2007 $3.9B
2008 $5.4B
2009 $5.5B
2010 $6.8B
2011 $9B
2012 $11.8B
2013 $13.1B
2014 $16B
2015 $17.7B
2016 $21.5B
2017 $26B
2018 $32.7B
2019 $38.9B
2020 $38.3B
2021 $61.9B
2022 $69.69B
2023 $74.6B
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So glad I bought Oct 130 calls b4 the earnings! And I plan to hold'em for a nice run higher!
Lovely! Thanks Discover!
Alphabet Inc. $GOOGLE Just Reported Earnings
By: Evan | July 25, 2023
• GOOGLE $GOOGL JUST REPORTED EARNINGS
EPS of $1.44 beating expectations of $1.32
Revenue of $74.6B beating expectations of $72.8B
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History of Google's $GOOGL Q2 Net Income
By: Evan | July 25, 2023
• History of Google's $GOOGL Q2 Net Income
2009: $1.5B
2010: $1.8B
2011: $2.5B
2012: 2.8B
2013: $3.2B
2014: $3.4B
2015: $3.4B
2016: $4.9B
2017: $3.5B
2018: $3.2B
2019: $9.9B
2020: $7B
2021: $18.5B
2022: $16B
2023: Find out later today
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Earnings Preview: Google, Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL)
By: 24/7 Wall St. | July 24, 2023
• Here is a look at three companies set to report quarterly results after markets close Tuesday afternoon.
Alphabet
The parent of Google, Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL), is the first (alphabetically speaking) of the five big tech stocks to report June-quarter earnings. The good news for investors is that the stock has added 36% to its share price so far in 2023, with about two-thirds of that increase coming by mid-April.
In the first quarter, Alphabet beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates, largely due to the company’s massive reduction in employees. What did it have to do to keep up the momentum in the second quarter? Sell more advertising on its Google search results pages. Wall Street seems to think that happened.
Of 51 analyst ratings on the stock, 43 are Buy or Strong Buy rating, and the rest are Hold ratings. At a recent price of around $120 a share, the upside potential, based on a median price target of $126, is 11.8%. At the high price target of $172, the upside potential is 68.6%.
Second-quarter revenue is forecast at $72.75 billion, which would be up 4.2% sequentially and by 4.4% year over year. Adjusted EPS are pegged at $1.34, up 14.7% sequentially and 10.7% higher year over year. For the full 2023 fiscal year, consensus estimates call for EPS of $5.35, up 17.4%, on revenue of $300.11 billion, up 6.1%.
Alphabet stock trades at 22.5 times expected 2023 EPS, 19.0 times estimated 2024 earnings of $6.32 and 16.3 times estimated 2025 earnings of $7.37 per share. Its 52-week trading range is $83.34 to $129.04. The company does not pay a dividend, and the total shareholder return for the past 12 months was 4.97%.
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Bought the Oct 130 calls here today!
$MSTR & $GOOG $1M+ OTM Calls (Opening Orders)
By: Cheddar Flow | July 24, 2023
• $MSTR & $GOOG $1M+ OTM Calls (Opening Orders)
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$GOOG Will Google's earnings report this week be able to keep the trend alive?
By: TrendSpider | July 22, 2023
• $GOOG Will Google's earnings report this week be able to keep the trend alive?
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S. R. Schill & Associates Buys New Holdings in Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
By: MarketBeat | July 21, 2023
• S. R. Schill & Associates bought a new stake in Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) during the 1st quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The firm bought 2,275 shares of the information services provider's stock, valued at approximately $236,000...
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Highview Capital Management LLC DE Boosts Stake in Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
By: MarketBeat | July 20, 2023
• Highview Capital Management LLC DE lifted its holdings in Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) by 14.8% during the first quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm owned 21,753 shares of the information services provider's stock after acquiring an additional 2,812 shares during the quarter. Alphabet accounts for 1.3% of Highview Capital Management LLC DE's holdings, making the stock its 15th biggest position. Highview Capital Management LLC DE's holdings in Alphabet were worth $2,256,000 as of its most recent SEC filing...
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Google co-founder Sergey Brin back at the company in recent months
By: Investing.com | July 21, 2023
Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) owned Google co-founder Sergey Brin has been back working at the tech giant's Mountain View, California offices in recent months, alongside researchers, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal on Friday.
Brin is said to be visiting the offices three to four days a week, working with researchers as they try to develop the company's next large artificial intelligence system.
WSJ sources told the publication that while he participated in meetings about AI late last year, the frequency and intensity of his involvement have since increased.
Brin stepped down from an executive role at Alphabet in 2019 and has since taken a hands-off approach. However, there has been a shift in gears in recent months.
He has reportedly been working closely with researchers at GOOGL's newly constructed Charleston East building, creating Google's long-awaited AI model Gemini, and discussing technical matters such as "loss curves."
Sources told the WSJ that Sundar Pichai, chief executive of both Google and Alphabet, is excited about Brin's involvement and has encouraged his contributions.
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Will Google $GOOG see a rebound off the trendzone and 50 day EMA?
By: TrendSpider | July 20, 2023
• $GOOG Will Google see a rebound off the trendzone and 50 day EMA?
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This stock just can't hold sqaut
Google seen beating in Q2 - BofA
By: Investing.com | July 20, 2023
Google-owner Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) is set to report its second-quarter results on July 25. BofA Securities analysts previewed the quarter and expect a modest revenue beat and EPS upside on cost control and other income. The analysts raised their price target to $142 from $128, while maintaining a Buy rating. The new price target suggests more than 16% upside from yesterday’s closing price.
The firm estimates revenue and GAAP EPS of $60.7 billion and $1.42, respectively, versus the consensus of $60.4B and $1.34.
“We expect search & other growth to accelerate 210bps to 4% y/y (FX benefit), with our $42.3bn est above Street at $42.1bn,” they commented. “We expect 2Q core Google margins to be up 64bps y/y on cost savings/layoffs and expect GAAP EPS at $1.42, above Street at $1.34, with investment income (asset mark-ups) driving upside. Based on 3rd party data sources, we think investors are looking for in-line to 1% above Street revs., with extent (or lack of) of cost efficiencies a debate topic.”
Another aspect of discussion centers around the potential effects of integrating LLM (Language Model Models) into search results on revenues and costs. Despite this, BofA analysts hold a positive outlook on the steady growth of search share, which they believe will grant Google the ability to manage the pace of LLM integration effectively.
Overall, the analysts are anticipating 2Q cost-driven upside and potential Search acceleration in 2H due to macro improvements and new AI tools for advertisers. Alphabet is seen as a defensive, self-help stock in 2023 with stronger earning potential.
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Alphabet Inc. $GOOGL Nice ramp, 129 is the 52w high, one of the few big names that are still set up here
By: Options Mike | July 16, 2023
• $GOOGL Nice ramp, 129 is the 52w high, one of the few big names that are still set up here.
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toned daily pps PPO acuml vol r.s.i.
10 yr. black/daily/200ma 300ma 400ma 500ma 600ma PPS VOLUME
NEW UPDATES COMING /////\\\\\ 08-10-2015
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