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Final Reports are now given for APCC, CDNS, CHUX, KSS, MNT, MTW, PPC, RYL, SUNW, VOD, WMS and WTSLA.
In reviewing Value Line's current projections for the PIC stocks I find that there are several that need to be culled from the list. These stocks have 3 to 5 year projected growth rates that fall below the approx. 13% per year minimum projection of the top 100 growth stocks.
I'll update the list later today.
Best regards, Tom
Ross Stores...................
Manitowoc Company..................
Kohl's Department Store.......................
Helen Of Troy....................
Cognos..................
O'Charley's.................
Chico's FAS.............
Cognex Corp...............
Hi MM, This first one will be near and dear to your heart........
The 131% isn't even back considering this is a five year old investment. Mr. Buynhold made 79% while being totally at risk the entire time. I think that makes our AIM gain even more impressive. The AIM account during this rather non-idyllic period of time was 77.9% invested on average for the period. So the ROCAR would appear to be more than double the Buy and Hold gain - 168% return on (average) capital at risk. Not bad.
01/21/2001 Account started with 382 shares at $16.75 and $3601.50 Cash Reserve.
02/05/2001 Bought 72 shares @ 13, and Portfolio control changed from 6398 to 6866 .
02/12/2001 Bought 24 shares @ 13.13, and Portfolio control changed from 6866 to 7024 .
02/19/2001 Bought 39 shares @ 12.44, and Portfolio control changed from 7024 to 7267 .
04/02/2001 Bought 27 shares @ 12.19, and Portfolio control changed from 7267 to 7432 .
05/07/2001 Sold 49 shares @ 16.86.
05/21/2001 Sold 57 shares @ 19.12.
06/18/2001 Bought 61 shares @ 13.7, and Portfolio control changed from 7432 to 7850 .
07/16/2001 Bought 42 shares @ 13.29, and Portfolio control changed from 7850 to 8129 .
07/23/2001 Bought 60 shares @ 12.4, and Portfolio control changed from 8129 to 8501 .
09/24/2001 Bought 54 shares @ 11.88, and Portfolio control changed from 8501 to 8822 .
07/23/2002 Bought 62 shares @ 10.7899, and Portfolio control changed from 8822 to 9156 .
11/22/2002 Sold 43 shares @ 15.2.
11/25/2002 Sold 51 shares @ 16.48.
07/16/2003 Sold 27 shares @ 17.15.
08/21/2003 Sold 32 shares @ 18.14.
11/02/2003 Sold 56 shares @ 20.29.
11/09/2003 Sold 46 shares @ 22.26.
12/21/2003 Sold 33 shares @ 23.90.
01/11/2004 Sold 20 shares @ 25.01.
01/18/2004 Vealie Portfolio control changed from 9156 to 9621.
06/06/2004 Bought 63 Shares @ 17.53 and portfolio control changed from 9621 to 10764 .
07/26/2004 Bought 33 shares @ 17.03, and Portfolio control changed from 10546 to 10827.
10/18/2004 Bought 42 shares @ 16.3, and Portfolio control changed from 10827 to 11169.
12/02/2004 Sold 27 shares @ 21.48.
03/06/2005 Sold 35 shares @ $24.84.
02/06/2005 Sold 42 shares @ $23.24.
04/04/2005 Sold 26 shares @ 26.10.
08/02/2005 Sold 33 shares @ 28.11.
11/01/2005 Bought 33 shares @ 21.37, and Portfolio control changed from 11169 to 11522 due to the purchase.
02/06/2006 Bought 41 shares @ 20.32, and Portfolio control changed from 11522 to 11939 due to the purchase.
05/24/2006 Bought 39 shares @ 19.57, and Portfolio control changed from 11939 to 12321 due to the purchase.
06/26/2006 Bought 38 shares @ 18.89, and Portfolio control changed from 12321 to 12680 due to the purchase.
07/24/2006 Bought 84 shares @ 17.14, and Portfolio control changed from 12680 to 13400 due to the purchase.
08/28/2006 Bought 49 shares @ 16.81, and Portfolio control changed from 13400 to 13812 due to the purchase.
10/16/2006 Sold 55 shares @ 22.97.
10/30/2006 Sold 147 shares @ 30.04.
Hey MM, I'll freshen the graphs for all the PIC stocks that traded during October. It's an impressive list.
Check back later......
TV
Hey Tom re: "The first week of October..."
Do you have Newport graphs posted for these anywhere?
TIA,
MM
The first week of October has proved to be a Fest!
The model shows
Sale - 26 CHS @ $23.34
Sale - 20 CHUX @ $20.18
Sale - 34 HELE @ $23.35
Sale - 18 MTW @ $50.43
MTW is now fully funded with cash. The others can sell again without surpassing the i-Wave's suggested reserves.
Best regards, Tom
Another new PIC stock this week. CHS, Chico's, a retail specialty store is currently on the Highest Growth Stocks list in Value Line while also being ranked a #5 in Timeliness.
Well, wouldn't you know that in the last six months the price/share has dropped from around $50 to under $20. Hmmmmmmm. Where was Value Line with its #5 rank six months ago?
So, what should we do with such a stock? Well, let's assume we need to do a bit more study than just checking to see what the PIC list's latest addition is and dig a bit deeper.
Looking at the chart confirms the long upward trend that got it on the HGS list in the first place. It shows a 1.30 BETA in Value Line, but as you can see over the last three years, that's not been enough to trigger many 30% ZigZags along the way.
Well, so much for charts, what about some of the company's internals?
Well, it's debt free, has gained in earnings steadily for years - at a rate in the double digits - but that earnings growth slowed during the last 9 months. So, it's looking like it is going from a "high growth stock" to a "cyclical growth stock" going forward. That's not always bad for AIM users.
So, we'll be adding it to the PIC stocks and see how it performs.
Best regards, Tom
Four PIC List stocks triggered AIM designated buys this week:
APCC - Buy 49 shares
FIC - Buy 12 shares
OSI - Buy 15 shares
SWFT - Buy 25 shares
At the beginning of August this account was tripping multiple sales. Here at the end of the month it seems to be in a different mood.
Best regards, Tom
Jabil Circuits (JBL) joins the PIC List of investment candidates this week with a #5 Timeliness ranking as well as being currently on Value Line's "Highest Growth Stocks" list.
Disclaimer! - I've owned Jabil's stock for a number of years and have used AIM as my guide in managing that holding. It continues to be part of my portfolio today.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Tom,
Take a look at Mark's site, the other day, I ran VSS against more than a 4500 stock universe.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1172
Generally, only stocks with a score of 6 or more are worth looking at.
Don
Hi Don, Just for fun I looked at Value Line's "Value" screen currently. There's just 19 stocks listed there at present which is a pretty small number of the 1700 stocks in their universe!
I'll try to reproduce the list here with the columns lining up:
Company Ticker Industry Timeliness Safety Technical Financial Strength
Alaska Air Group ALK Air Transport 2 3 2 C++
ArvinMeritor ARM Auto Parts 3 3 3 B+
King Pharmac. KG Drug 2 3 4 B
Avnet, Inc. AVT Electronics 2 3 4 B+
Allied Capital ALD Financial Svcs. 3 2 3 B++
CIT Group CIT Financial Svcs. 3 3 3 B++
MGIC Investment MTG Financial Svcs. 4 3 3 A
Beazer Homes BZH Homebuilding 4 3 5 A
Ohio Casualty OCAS Insurance 4 3 3 B+
PMI Group PMI Insurance 3 3 3 B++
RealNetworks, Inc. RNWK Internet 2 4 5 B
Overseas Shipping OSG Maritime 3 3 1 B+
Louisiana-Pacific LPX Paper/Forest 4 3 4 B
Pogo Producing PPP Petroleum 4 3 4 B++
Reliance Steel RS Steel (General) 2 3 3 B++
Ryerson Inc. RYI Steel (General) 3 3 5 B
POSCO ADR PKX Steel (Integrated) 3 3 2 B++
Deutsche Tele ADR DT Telecom. Services 3 3 3 B+
YRC Worldwide YRCW Trucking 2 3 3 B+
Hi Don, Okay that helps quite a bit. So the "target" is actually the caluclated "fair value" and so if the current price is below it we're looking at a discount to fair value.
Interesting to note that JBL has a fair value of around $30 and it's rapidly approaching that number these days.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Tom, the fair value has no timeframe associated with it, it's just the estimated fair value based on existing fundamental information. In addition to VSS, Mark has the fundamental analyzer in AI (I generally use Codypup's screening method with the AI Funadamental analyzer), and Mark has a program called The Pragmatic Investor, which he's currently updating. There is no simple way, that I'm aware of, to back test any of the methods; but, they do provide an interesting ranking of the stocks, based upon fundamentals.
Just to complicate matters, below is a technical analysis ranking of the Pic List and the Top 100.
Don
======================================================
$piclist Funds
Best Funds with Ranking calculation details
Rank No. Ranking RSI Wt UI Wt NC Wt
-------- -------- -------- -------- --------
TROW T Rowe Price Associates 1.00 69.33 73.92 -18.69 14.11
MKL Markel 2.00 64.86 65.24 -11.64 11.26
CSCO Cisco Systems 3.00 51.53 64.47 -23.48 10.54
SUNW Sun Microsystems 4.00 46.66 67.90 -33.38 12.13
CERN Cerner 5.00 43.42 73.88 -40.43 9.98
KEA Keane 6.00 41.44 67.00 -36.94 11.39
VPI Vintage Petroleum/Disc 7.00 39.66 30.72 -7.81 16.74
KSS Kohl's 8.00 39.16 66.87 -37.08 9.37
CBK Christopher & Banks 9.00 38.85 45.31 -23.88 17.42
MTW Manitowoc 10.00 37.86 59.26 -40.90 19.50
CLE Claire's Stores 11.00 33.98 69.38 -46.19 10.79
ELN Elan ADR 12.00 31.17 53.37 -40.45 18.25
CHUX O'Charley's 13.00 27.32 59.46 -38.55 6.42
LEG Leggett & Platt 14.00 25.90 50.42 -31.23 6.71
ERICY Ericsson Telephone ADR- 15.00 23.81 53.84 -35.93 5.90
GPS Gap 16.00 21.57 48.34 -31.38 4.62
CGNX Cognex 17.00 18.31 59.39 -43.72 2.65
VOL Volt Information Scienc 18.00 18.20 37.14 -37.35 18.40
WMS WMS Industries 19.00 17.08 56.05 -44.67 5.69
CCU Clear Channel Communica 20.00 4.72 25.63 -26.42 5.51
CSC Computer Sciences 21.00 -3.05 17.43 -28.42 7.95
TLAB Tellabs 22.00 -9.77 31.16 -49.02 8.09
ZQK Quiksilver 23.00 -12.90 37.97 -53.76 2.89
MCRS Micros Systems 24.00 -13.84 37.92 -56.06 4.30
VOD Vodafone Group PLC ADR 25.00 -15.42 36.37 -54.41 2.62
INTC Intel 26.00 -16.13 53.05 -70.26 1.08
APCC American Power Conversi 27.00 -19.00 43.57 -62.31 -0.27
ADCT ADC Telecommunications 28.00 -19.08 56.31 -73.20 -2.18
ADPT Adaptec 29.00 -21.82 28.87 -59.93 9.24
PLAB Photronics 30.00 -22.10 46.62 -68.68 -0.04
========================================================
$top100 Funds
Best Funds with Ranking calculation details
Rank No. Ranking RSI Wt UI Wt NC Wt
-------- -------- -------- -------- --------
SEIC SEI Investments 1.00 73.79 71.06 -11.99 14.72
TROW T Rowe Price Associates 2.00 69.33 73.92 -18.69 14.11
TJX TJX Companies 3.00 67.97 72.77 -17.06 12.27
GDW Golden West Financial 4.00 60.08 61.37 -12.58 11.28
ORCL Oracle 5.00 58.98 67.13 -19.47 11.31
DHR Danaher 6.00 55.25 58.29 -14.53 11.48
JEC Jacobs Engineering Grou 7.00 53.34 67.43 -29.02 14.93
DVA Davita 8.00 52.12 68.01 -26.88 10.99
ROP Roper Industries 9.00 50.27 59.04 -20.23 11.46
WAG Walgreen 10.00 49.64 64.40 -23.57 8.81
NTAP Network Appliance 11.00 48.64 63.72 -27.99 12.91
SCHW Charles Schwab 12.00 47.92 64.34 -26.58 10.17
EV Eaton Vance 13.00 47.78 67.62 -29.69 9.85
TTI Tetra Technologies 14.00 46.60 51.17 -25.77 21.21
SPLS Staples 15.00 46.32 60.58 -22.96 8.70
PCP Precision Castparts 16.00 44.28 58.22 -26.19 12.25
ESRX Express Scripts 17.00 43.93 68.64 -39.18 14.47
MW Men's Wearhouse 18.00 43.84 68.85 -34.93 9.92
CERN Cerner 19.00 43.42 73.88 -40.43 9.98
IIVI II-VI 20.00 42.69 67.42 -35.34 10.61
MATW Matthews International- 21.00 42.55 64.45 -29.06 7.16
BRL Barr Pharmaceuticals 22.00 42.41 76.19 -45.44 11.66
LEH Lehman Brothers Holding 23.00 42.01 58.41 -28.46 12.06
HCC HCC Insurance Holdings 24.00 41.63 54.43 -23.60 10.81
BRO Brown & Brown 25.00 40.38 54.03 -27.40 13.74
TO Tech Ops Sevcom 26.00 39.95 53.45 -24.25 10.75
GLYT Genlyte Group 27.00 39.22 41.03 -15.90 14.09
KSS Kohl's 28.00 39.16 66.87 -37.08 9.37
SII Smith International 29.00 38.57 52.27 -26.05 12.35
CNI Canadian National Railw 30.00 38.04 45.13 -19.72 12.63
MTW Manitowoc 31.00 37.86 59.26 -40.90 19.50
TECH Techne 32.00 36.79 56.90 -27.26 7.15
HOC Holly 33.00 36.26 43.50 -26.55 19.30
OSK Oshkosh Truck 34.00 35.12 66.56 -42.70 11.25
LLTC Linear Technology 35.00 33.62 59.49 -31.08 5.22
LAUR Laureate Education 36.00 33.21 53.96 -29.57 8.81
XTO XTO Energy 37.00 32.98 55.01 -33.73 11.71
HWAY Healthways 38.00 32.59 44.87 -23.25 10.97
PAYX Paychex 39.00 30.95 51.58 -29.56 8.92
ALTR Altera 40.00 30.81 70.97 -44.94 4.79
KLAC KLA-Tencor 41.00 30.41 65.48 -40.40 5.32
BLUD Immucor 42.00 29.75 52.71 -31.08 8.11
BJS BJ Services 43.00 29.13 60.31 -41.56 10.39
FAST Fastenal 44.00 28.75 54.40 -36.08 10.42
TGT Target 45.00 28.05 57.44 -34.67 5.29
BMET Biomet 46.00 27.57 51.12 -28.24 4.69
GGG Graco 47.00 26.15 42.92 -25.64 8.86
BBY Best Buy 48.00 25.94 52.04 -33.04 6.95
BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond 49.00 25.94 65.05 -43.09 3.98
NBR Nabors Industries 50.00 24.44 56.01 -39.61 8.05
EMC EMC 51.00 24.21 59.98 -39.98 4.21
ORLY O'Reilly Automotive 52.00 23.38 48.23 -31.60 6.75
AMTD TD Ameritrade Holding 53.00 23.16 64.39 -50.66 9.44
LOW Lowe's Companies 54.00 22.85 46.86 -29.04 5.03
VLO Valero Energy 55.00 22.60 37.79 -29.05 13.85
SYK Stryker 56.00 20.69 71.63 -56.03 5.10
JKHY Jack Henry & Associates 57.00 19.17 46.57 -34.68 7.28
MRD MacDermid 58.00 18.94 45.90 -32.78 5.83
HD Home Depot 59.00 17.25 43.99 -31.61 4.87
EXPD Expeditors Internationa 60.00 17.18 29.94 -28.10 15.33
CBH Commerce Bancorp(NJ) 61.00 15.82 38.17 -29.53 7.18
AMAT Applied Materials 62.00 14.80 52.82 -42.45 4.43
SBUX Starbucks 63.00 11.94 24.49 -23.47 10.91
QCOM Qualcomm 64.00 10.83 46.22 -41.00 5.61
JBL Jabil Circuit 65.00 10.81 66.36 -60.93 5.37
DW Drew Industries 66.00 10.59 48.51 -46.99 9.07
ESV Ensco International 67.00 10.32 45.78 -43.81 8.35
THO Thor Industries 68.00 9.21 29.84 -32.17 11.53
ROST Ross Stores 69.00 6.23 27.92 -28.23 6.54
RESP Respironics 70.00 6.17 41.32 -41.69 6.55
MGM MGM Mirage 71.00 5.79 43.86 -42.68 4.61
RHI Robert Half Internation 72.00 4.56 26.49 -28.59 6.66
PETM Petsmart 73.00 3.28 43.32 -43.38 3.33
HAR Harman International In 74.00 2.48 52.07 -52.22 2.64
CAI CACI International-A 75.00 2.36 30.86 -31.72 3.22
FWRD Forward Air 76.00 1.95 25.74 -30.11 6.32
NE Noble 77.00 1.20 30.36 -35.26 6.10
PGR Progressive 78.00 -0.04 31.89 -39.13 7.21
UNH UnitedHealth Group 79.00 -0.27 43.30 -50.41 6.84
MDT Medtronic 80.00 -0.33 33.04 -37.42 4.04
SLM SLM 81.00 -1.87 13.06 -21.52 6.60
AMGN Amgen 82.00 -1.90 41.50 -47.72 4.32
DRS DRS Technologies 83.00 -2.11 29.78 -34.08 2.19
EOG EOG Resources 84.00 -3.59 34.82 -46.65 8.25
ADI Analog Devices 85.00 -4.83 31.32 -38.11 1.97
CAKE Cheesecake Factory 86.00 -4.95 48.86 -54.20 0.39
WSO Watsco 87.00 -6.56 32.99 -45.82 6.28
LM Legg Mason 88.00 -7.15 40.33 -51.25 3.77
WFMI Whole Foods Market 89.00 -7.52 37.74 -48.37 3.10
JLG JLG Industries 90.00 -11.53 42.23 -63.43 9.67
MXIM Maxim Integrated Produc 91.00 -12.22 46.75 -58.85 -0.12
ZQK Quiksilver 92.00 -12.90 37.97 -53.76 2.89
MCRS Micros Systems 93.00 -13.84 37.92 -56.06 4.30
NFX Newfield Exploration 94.00 -18.48 22.62 -46.17 5.08
APCC American Power Conversi 95.00 -19.00 43.57 -62.31 -0.27
MCRL Micrel 96.00 -26.47 38.39 -65.56 0.71
NVR NVR 97.00 -33.22 51.87 -80.12 -4.97
CHS Chico's FAS 98.00 -33.94 48.74 -81.52 -1.16
URBN Urban Outfitters 99.00 -39.49 57.04 -92.40 -4.14
FRK Florida Rock Industries 100.00 -40.00 23.50 -63.18 -0.32
Hi Don, So only 9% of the 100 stocks make it through Mark's filter. Is there any date associated with the "target" price? For instance, is this a projection for the next 6 months or year? or just a projection of what would be fully valued?
I've never used any of Mark's software, so really don't know much about the basis.
I guess this does clear up the point I was mentioning. Stocks with great track records are usually well known and therefore not great "values" as much of their future growth is priced in already.
Best regards, Tom
PS: I was glad to see that at least JBL made the list. So I at least have one stock that his software thinks has good fundamental value!!!
Hi Tom,
Here's the VSS results 8-22-06:
Ticker Rating Price Target Return
ALTR 7.00 19.20 21.83 14%
ADI 6.00 27.42 32.44 18%
JLG 5.00 18.34 29.34 60%
JBL 5.00 27.22 30.21 11%
HCC 4.00 31.17 32.24 3%
ESV 4.00 42.62 118.15 177%
NVR 3.00 489.66 748.48 53%
NE 3.00 66.60 117.10 76%
NBR 2.50 34.10 59.46 74%
Don Carlson
Hi Don, Here's their current 100 highest growth stocks screen from Value Line .........................
Company Name Ticker Industry Name
DRS Technologies DRS Aerospace/Defense
Precision Castparts PCP Aerospace/Defense
Oshkosh Truck OSK Auto & Truck
Commerce Bancorp NJ CBH Bank
Amgen AMGN Biotechnology
Techne Corp. TECH Biotechnology
Genlyte Group GLYT Building Materials
Jacobs Engineering JEC Building Materials
Shaw Commun. 'B' SJRB.TO Cable TV
Florida Rock FRK Cement & Aggregates
MacDermid Inc. MRD Chemical (Specialty)
CACI Int'l CAI Computer Software/Svcs
Henry (Jack) & Assoc. JKHY Computer Software/Svcs
Oracle Corp. ORCL Computer Software/Svcs
Paychex, Inc. PAYX Computer Software/Svcs
SEI Investments SEIC Computer Software/Svcs
Amer. Power Conv. APCC Computers/Peripherals
EMC Corp. EMC Computers/Peripherals
MICROS Systems MCRS Computers/Peripherals
Network Appliance NTAP Computers/Peripherals
Danaher Corp. DHR Diversified Co.
Matthews Int'l MATW Diversified Co.
Barr Pharmac. BRL Drug
Laureate Education LAUR Educational Services
Harman Int'l HAR Electrical Equipment
Jabil Circuit JBL Electronics
Micrel Inc. MCRL Electronics
Brown & Brown BRO Financial Svcs. (Div.)
Eaton Vance Corp. EV Financial Svcs. (Div.)
Price (T. Rowe) Group TROW Financial Svcs. (Div.)
SLM Corporation SLM Financial Svcs. (Div.)
Whole Foods Market WFMI Grocery
Cerner Corp. CERN Healthcare Information
NVR, Inc. NVR Homebuilding
MGM Mirage MGM Hotel/Gaming
Robert Half Int'l RHI Human Resources
Expeditors Int'l EXPD Industrial Services
HCC Insurance Hldgs. HCC Insurance (Prop/Cas.)
Progressive (Ohio) PGR Insurance (Prop/Cas.)
Graco Inc. GGG Machinery
JLG Industries JLG Machinery
Manitowoc Co. MTW Machinery
Roper Inds. ROP Machinery
Drew Industries DW Manuf. Housing/RV
Thor Inds. THO Manuf. Housing/RV
DaVita Inc. DVA Medical Services
Healthways Inc. HWAY Medical Services
UnitedHealth Group UNH Medical Services
Biomet BMET Medical Supplies
Immucor, Inc. BLUD Medical Supplies
Medtronic, Inc. MDT Medical Supplies
Respironics Inc. RESP Medical Supplies
Stryker Corp. SYK Medical Supplies
EOG Resources EOG Natural Gas (Div.)
Newfield Exploration NFX Natural Gas (Div.)
XTO Energy XTO Natural Gas (Div.)
Staples, Inc. SPLS Office Equip/Supplies
BJ Services BJS Oilfield Svcs/Equip.
ENSCO Int'l ESV Oilfield Svcs/Equip.
Nabors Inds. NBR Oilfield Svcs/Equip.
Noble Corp. NE Oilfield Svcs/Equip.
Smith Int'l Inc. SII Oilfield Svcs/Equip.
TETRA Technologies TTI Oilfield Svcs/Equip.
Holly Corp. HOC Petroleum (Integrated)
Valero Energy VLO Petroleum (Integrated)
Express Scripts 'A' ESRX Pharmacy Services
Walgreen Co. WAG Pharmacy Services
II-VI Inc. IIVI Precision Instrument
KLA-Tencor KLAC Precision Instrument
Can. National Railway CNI Railroad
Cheesecake Factory CAKE Restaurant
Starbucks Corp. SBUX Restaurant
Bed Bath & Beyond BBBY Retail (Special Lines)
Best Buy Co. BBY Retail (Special Lines)
Chico's FAS CHS Retail (Special Lines)
Men's Wearhouse MW Retail (Special Lines)
PetSmart, Inc. PETM Retail (Special Lines)
Quiksilver Inc. ZQK Retail (Special Lines)
Ross Stores ROST Retail (Special Lines)
TJX Companies TJX Retail (Special Lines)
Urban Outfitters URBN Retail (Special Lines)
O'Reilly Automotive ORLY Retail Automotive
Fastenal Co. FAST Retail Building Supply
Home Depot HD Retail Building Supply
Lowe's Cos. LOW Retail Building Supply
Watsco, Inc. WSO Retail Building Supply
Kohl's Corp. KSS Retail Store
Target Corp. TGT Retail Store
Legg Mason LM Securities Brokerage
Lehman Bros. Holdings LEH Securities Brokerage
Schwab (Charles) SCHW Securities Brokerage
TD Ameritrade Holding AMTD Securities Brokerage
Altera Corp. ALTR Semiconductor
Analog Devices ADI Semiconductor
Linear Technology LLTC Semiconductor
Maxim Integrated MXIM Semiconductor
Applied Materials AMAT Semiconductor Equip
Qualcomm Inc. QCOM Telecom. Equipment
Golden West Fin'l GDW Thrift
Forward Air FWRD Trucking
Hi Don, Re: Pic List Review..................
It doesn't surprise me that so few of those stocks make the Value Stock Selector list. I think there are two reasons why.
First is that many of the "100 Highest Growth Stocks" in Value Line have significantly higher P/Es than other stocks in their universe. This is due to the fact that there's been 10 years of very good growth which has attracted the Momentum Crowd. It's hard to remain a shadow stock when it's weekly listed in Value Line as a very good growth stock.
Second is how they appear on the PIC List. They need to have stumbled rather severely to have made it to the PIC in the first place. This stumble would probably interfere with any "value" consideration because it would show a slip in earnings, or some other measure. Remember PIC stocks are ranked #5, lowest in projected performance for the next 12 months at the time of their being selected for my list.
It might be more beneficial for you to scan the current "100 Highest Growth Stocks" list itself. Again these stocks are rather highly "valued" when they make this list, but they do exhibit excellent 10 fundamental growth, too. Whether they would fit a "value" screen is another thing. If you would like, I could copy the current list from Value Line to here for your review.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Tom,...additional views of the Pic List
I ran the Pic List through Mark's Value Stock Selector (VSS), only two of the stocks got any kind of ranking:
Ticker Rating Price Target Return
GPS 7.00 16.650 18.321 10%
CLE 7.00 27.940 30.539 9%
Percent ZZs 10.00%
SIGNALS DAYS PER YEAR Current
-------- -------- -------- --------
ADCT ADC Telecommunications 132.00 1257.00 13.23 14.78
ERICY Ericsson Telephone ADR-B 108.00 1257.00 10.83 32.60
TLAB Tellabs 102.00 1257.00 10.22 10.13
SUNW Sun Microsystems 102.00 1257.00 10.22 4.68
PLAB Photronics 92.00 1257.00 9.22 14.67
ELN Elan ADR 90.00 1257.00 9.02 14.96
CBK Christopher & Banks 88.00 1257.00 8.82 28.29
ADPT Adaptec 88.00 1257.00 8.82 4.04
CGNX Cognex 80.00 1257.00 8.02 25.02
INTC Intel 74.00 1257.00 7.42 18.40
CSCO Cisco Systems 74.00 1257.00 7.42 20.86
CDN 74.00 1257.00 7.42 16.00
SCH 70.00 1257.00 7.02 14.68
GPS Gap 68.00 1257.00 6.82 16.65
CHUX O'Charley's 64.00 1257.00 6.42 17.31
CERN Cerner 62.00 1257.00 6.21 46.25
APCC American Power Conversion 62.00 1257.00 6.21 17.61
VPI Vintage Petroleum/Disc 60.00 1257.00 6.01 59.62
MOLX 58.00 1257.00 5.81 35.61
CCU Clear Channel Communications 56.00 1257.00 5.61 27.90
VOD Vodafone Group PLC ADR 56.00 1257.00 5.61 20.86
MCRS Micros Systems 56.00 1257.00 5.61 39.07
ZQK Quiksilver 54.00 1257.00 5.41 12.62
WMS WMS Industries 50.00 1257.00 5.01 27.81
KSS Kohl's 46.00 1257.00 4.61 61.73
KEA Keane 44.00 1257.00 4.41 15.25
CSC Computer Sciences 44.00 1257.00 4.41 47.07
CLE Claire's Stores 42.00 1257.00 4.21 27.94
TROW T Rowe Price Associates 40.00 1257.00 4.01 43.94
MTW Manitowoc 38.00 1257.00 3.81 45.19
VOL Volt Information Science 38.00 1257.00 3.81 43.91
LEG Leggett & Platt 24.00 1257.00 2.41 23.59
MKL Markel 22.00 1257.00 2.21 363.85
Doing a bit of PIC List maintenance. I forgot to post Ryland Group on July 3rd as a new Candidate. Here's where it stands as of today:
It bottomed out at $33.86 after our initial purchase at $42.59. This allowed a bit of AIM downside averaging.
Sorry for the delayed start of this file.
Best regards, Tom
Here's an interesting view of the various PIC List stocks. I've sorted them by %-change in price for the day. Note I've also included the 52 week highs and lows to give some perspective as to where these stocks are in relation to their prices for the last year.
As you can see, in most cases there's still considerable room on the upside before new Highs are reached. Some are right at their yearly lows.
Best regards, Tom
This week's prices tripped a lot of buying activity in the PIC list. Some stocks have had multiple buys in a downward slide while others this is the first.
ADCT, CGNX, COGN, ELX, GPS, IVC, KEA, NYT, OSI, SMTC, SUNW, TIF, URBN, and WTSLA all tripped buys. All have had their clocks reset for a 30 day wait until any further buying will be done. Some of these prices are starting to look quite attractive.
As of this week's tally the PIC list is showing an overall gross profit of 37.25% with the account Equity/Cash being 70% invested and 30% as cash reserve.
Best regards, Tom
PIC List Alert!..................................
One good thing about a broad decline in the stock market is that we seems to get more PIC Stock Candidates appearing. For the second week in a row we're showing a new stock.
Urban Outfitters (URBN) shows up on the 100 Highest Growth Stocks list in Value Line indicating 10 years of superior growth on many fronts and an expected 3-5 year continuation of good growth. However, something about the company, business sector or general market has taken some of the starch out of the stock in recent times. This has forced Value Line to demote it to a #5 Timeliness - lowest for the next 12 months.
Does this spell disaster? Well, if you decided around the end of 2005 to invest your entire retirement funds in it with no cash reserve, then you'd be in pretty sorry condition. However, the PIC strategy might have saved you considerable damage by waiting until the price had fallen nearly 50% from its late 2005 peak.
It was very steady in its climb, not offering an AIM user much in the way of volatility to capture with standard Lichello settings, but offering significant capital appreciation and cash buildup during that time even with AIM. Remember, AIM does not preclude capture of Capital Appreciation in a rising market even if there's no reversals that AIM can use.
Now, looking back, we see that this has been nearly a six month reversal. This would test anyone's resolve, but an AIM user would have been pulling loads of cash from it all along its 6X rise from $5/share. The pull back would have allowed some of that cash to be employed in rebuilding inventory.
How about the PIC List investor? Well, we've managed to avoid this terrible fall from grace by following the rules of waiting for good stocks to get a bad Timeliness report. Then we can afford to take a chance. So, with the i-Wave's current suggested cash level, we're starting a new PIC candidate history with Friday's closing price.
Does Urban Outfitters have a fit in your portfolio? Do their styles fit your style? Study it well before committing your hard earned dollars! Most of the PIC stocks have turned in good results but you'll notice that some have not. Certainly a bit of study might be of value here.
Best regards,
Tom
New PIC List Stock:
Mentor Corp. maker of medical supplies for the "aesthetics" end of the market is officially a PIC candidate after years of good growth and now a poor 12 month forecast and low Timeliness ranking.
Recently MNT sold off the entire urological division which has significantly changed the nature of the company. I'd suggested that you read up on this stock and the recent activities in Value Line before considering buying any. The future of the remaining aesthetics business looks good and could be pretty "perky" if their new silicone implant is approved.
I think that as usual, the first year could be a bit tricky for non-AIM investors but those who choose the AIM volatility capture method might be able to build a solid position. Value Line thinks the stock could do well in the 3-5 year time frame. It's ranked as follows:
BETA = 0.85
Yield = 1.9%
Safety = 3
Stock Price Stability = 50
None of these indicate that it will be a highly active AIM trader, but if one is seeking long term price appreciation and a bit of a dividend, too, it could do well in total return.
Best regards, Tom
Here's CBK as a PIC List stock:
While it was first listed as a PIC stock in Feb of 2004, I didn't actually buy it for my own account until August of the same year. The two portfolios' results are the same even though they started at different times and with slightly different settings.
You can see in this example that CBK's earlier period was good only because it used up a significant portion of the initial Cash Reserve.
Best regards, Tom
CBK tripped a Sell limit order today in my own account. This is also a PIC List stock, so thought I'd post the graph here, too.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Kavi, Those things and recent news events that are not represented in Value Line because of their being a bit behind real time.
We would be letting then lead us blindly, however. Part of the problem with the list over the years is that much of the companys' good news has usually been priced in. So, these stocks are rarely "bargain basement" in nature when they are on this list.
Our challenge then becomes picking them up when they are relative bargains. There in lies the thrill of victory or possibly the agony of defeat!!!
Best regards, Tom
Re: Stock selection using valueline survey
First of all thanks a lot for spending your valuable time for educating aspiring AIMers.
i read
http://www.aim-users.com/vlis.htm
few questions.
1) You have specified stocks with low BETA also works well with AIM. My understanding is that low BETA stocks hardly ever moves up or down relative to market ie less volatility. ???
2) insider trading - valueline only seems to give how many insider transactions have happened not the size of the transaction, don't we want to count the value of total sales - total buy rather than the number of sales. Or does valueline size up the value in the counts?
for eg. 1 buy worth 1 million vs 5 sells of few thousands.
>> Most Public Libraries will have Value Line available and >>it's usually available at most full service and some discount >>brokerages as well Most Public Libraries will have Value Line >>available and it's usually available at most full service and >>some discount brokerages as well
BTW - do you know any brokerage who provides valueline report for their customers, i couldn't find any, currently i am getting it through my library.
Thanks Tom, Good night.
Kavi.
Re:Top 100 growth stocks
So from the very fact that the stock is part of the list, preliminary analysis of the stock pretty much done, so we can just evaluate other things like stock price stability and beta, Debt ratio etc.
Kavi.
Hi Kavi, Here's the latest update in my PIC watch list on COGN................
Note that it's not quite down to its own first purchase using standard AIM settings of 10% SAFE and ~5% min. trade size.
I also made sure it was added at the PIC List site:
http://www.aim-users.com/pic.htm#COGN
Best regards, Tom
Hi Kavi, Re: Value Line's 100 shining stars.............
Your question is very good. If you note at the top of the page there in Value Line (page 39) they say,
"To be included, a company's annual growth of sales, cash flow, earnings, dividends and book value must together have averages XX% or more over the past ten years and be expected to average at least XX% in the coming 3-5 years."
So, they're accounting for that rather underwhelming book value growth in their overall calculation but how they do it is their own proprietary ideal. I guess we can surmise that the fat dividend growth rate compensates in their analysis for the low book value growth. Since we don't know their method of weighting these separate items, we can't know what the emphasis is. That they recognize Book Value Growth as a component of their analysis is good. The same is true of the higher dividend payers.
As investors we know there's different ways to achieve the "total return" we want. A zero dividend company has to perform in a different fashion than a high dividend company to achieve the same total return for us as investors. We shouldn't ignore either extreme if the total return is generous enough. Value Line's analysis brings together an interesting mix of fundamentals which in turn develops an interesting and diversified list of companies.
If we were to analyse for any of the individual components listed above (and Value Line does screen for several of them) we will find that they tend to be less diversified than this "100 Highest" list. I think this is because some industries tend to get high marks in just one area of focus by the very nature of their businesses.
So, MXIM might be strong in Dividend and Earnings growth and weak in book value growth by the nature of their business. Another company might be a huge free flow cash generator but pay no dividend. Both can make the list by their own merits. Dividends on the list currently range from zilch to 2.4%. In the past there's been some dividend payouts that were as high as 7% (Alliance Capital Management back in 2001, now AB). So the total list is a healthy one, in my opinion.
Hope this helps,
Tom
MXIM - for watch list - Book value calculation.
It is in 100 fast growing companies with timeliness of 3 currently.
Based on valueline report, future book value growth seems to be meak 5% where as everything else looks good.
But the dividend growth has been projected as 25%
How do you include dividend distribution in the equation.
If the company keeps distributing dividends would not it
reduce the book value growth?
Thanks
Kavi.
Tom - Re COGN
http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060516...
Cognos announced the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission review and filing delay late on Monday. The review is looking into how Cognos has accounted for its support revenues and the SEC's conclusions may effect the way the company allocates revenue.
Hi Kavi, Re: COGN............
It's still an active PIC stock. I'm not sure it's on the aim-users.com site yet as I might not have uploaded it yet. I'll double check tomorrow its status.
The PIC structure was created to both demonstrate AIM's abilities and to also show a method of developing a "watch list." I'll have to read up on the SEC probe. Don't know what that's about.
Best regards, Tom
COGN - Potential PIC stock?
COGN is still part of the 100 fast growing company with timeliness 4. During the past week stock has fallen almost 20% due to pending SEC probe. I think you have mentioned before that this is a former PIC stock.
There is a good chance COGN might become timeliness 5 very quickly. How do you deal with these kind of SEC probes?
Kavi.
Good morning Kavi, Re: Short selling and stock performance.....
I've tried a number of times over the years to build a case one way or the other relative to short interest on an individual stock. Unfortunately I've never been able to develop a reliable pattern recognition that was of any predictive value. Part of that might be the relatively slow reporting of short interest.
The IW's broad brush of market conditions seems to help me and I hope it's of value to others as well. For instance, looking back at the last "low risk" period in 2004...........
we see that the S&P 500 has risen about 18% or more since that time. It also gives us a feel for whether there's that kind of upside potential available now at this time. By comparison, it appears that the market is going to have a much harder time over the next 18 months turning in that type of performance than it did over the last 18 months!
What I have found over the years is that the high risk periods with the IW can last far longer than I expect. The results are the same when the market finally does decide to decline, but the IW seems to sense the risk on the early side.
Best regards, Tom
Tom - I also looked at last week's fastest growing companies list.
INTC is still in timeliness 4 and a few more,
Lateley decent number of high quality (???) stocks are making 52 weeks low.
DELL, EBAY, BOL, PDCO.
I am trying to control my urge of buying mostly because of overall market condition and IW-suggested market bearishness.
It is good we have IW to guide us through the sea. Otherwise it would have been very hard to stay the course.
BTW, do you make any decision based on the amount of short interest a stock has? Do you consider it a postive or negative for the stocks future price. I have read both side of argument. For eg. PPC has about 21% of available stocks shorted. GNSS has about 27% shorted.
Kavi.
Good morning Kavi, Re: PIC Model Selling....
Unfortunately I only own one of those stocks in the real world! CBK is in my own account along with CGNX, PPC and APCC. Oh yes, ADCT, too. There might be another one or two.
When I started this model portfolio back in 2001 I was pretty sure it was going to be a good identifier of stocks to own for long term appreciation and possibly also volatility capture. Unfortunately at the same time my overall AIM accounts were under stress of a very large BEAR HUG. So, most of my cash reserves were already designated for the repurchase of shares of my existing holdings.
So, although I've started a few AIM accounts based on PIC's concepts, I already had a number of these same stocks in my own account. I would have started more along the way except for the cash crunch of the 2001-2003 period.
I'm always happy to see PIC active, however, even if I don't own all the stocks. It helps validate the concept. I've been eyeing the #4 Timeliness stocks that are on the "100 Highest Growth Stocks" list. There are several currently. Here, too are some great companies that are currently a bit out of favor. While it might dilute the efforts of the current PIC list to include them, it's still a good hunting ground for stocks I might potentially buy.
Best regards, Tom
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