Good morning Kavi, Re: Short selling and stock performance.....
I've tried a number of times over the years to build a case one way or the other relative to short interest on an individual stock. Unfortunately I've never been able to develop a reliable pattern recognition that was of any predictive value. Part of that might be the relatively slow reporting of short interest.
The IW's broad brush of market conditions seems to help me and I hope it's of value to others as well. For instance, looking back at the last "low risk" period in 2004...........
we see that the S&P 500 has risen about 18% or more since that time. It also gives us a feel for whether there's that kind of upside potential available now at this time. By comparison, it appears that the market is going to have a much harder time over the next 18 months turning in that type of performance than it did over the last 18 months!
What I have found over the years is that the high risk periods with the IW can last far longer than I expect. The results are the same when the market finally does decide to decline, but the IW seems to sense the risk on the early side.
Best regards, Tom
I've tried a number of times over the years to build a case one way or the other relative to short interest on an individual stock. Unfortunately I've never been able to develop a reliable pattern recognition that was of any predictive value. Part of that might be the relatively slow reporting of short interest.
The IW's broad brush of market conditions seems to help me and I hope it's of value to others as well. For instance, looking back at the last "low risk" period in 2004...........
we see that the S&P 500 has risen about 18% or more since that time. It also gives us a feel for whether there's that kind of upside potential available now at this time. By comparison, it appears that the market is going to have a much harder time over the next 18 months turning in that type of performance than it did over the last 18 months!
What I have found over the years is that the high risk periods with the IW can last far longer than I expect. The results are the same when the market finally does decide to decline, but the IW seems to sense the risk on the early side.
Best regards, Tom
Port Washington, WI 53074
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