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Here's an interesting one................
APCC has been on the PIC List for a very long time. It first appeared as a #5 Timeliness stock in Value Line back in January of 2001 with a price/share of $16.75. If we'd bought and held it at that time, we'd have a solid gain of 27.6% for the time held.
Well, APCC is again in the dog house over at Value Line with a Timeliness of 5. Three weeks ago it was still Timeliness #3 with a price higher than $25 at the time. However, now that it's slipped to just around $21+, they at Value Line now think it's Timeliness is not as good! Somehow this seems to not be right!
In AIM's case, this PIC stock has performed very nicely. Even at this reduced price, we're still showing a gain of 64% compared to Mr. Buynhold. And, guess what? AIM's starting to accumulate shares again, now that it's dropped to #5! Funny how that works! AIM last sold shares at $28.11 and just repurchased them for $21.37.
I believe this is the very first stock to have retraced its steps from being a #5 to some "better" rating and back to #5 again.
Best regards, Tom
The AIM/PIC list generated a number of Buy signals this week.
CHUX
GPS
SMTC and
SWFT
Seeing that the iWave is currently showing High Risk, we won't be executing any of these buys at this time.
Further, CHUX, GPS and SMTC all are within their 30 day delay period from their last buys. Next week they will be over the 30 day hold. SWFT is begging for a buy, but we'll wait for the iWave to settle down before we execute.
Best regards, Tom
The PIC Stocks generated two trades this week. Both sales took place with stocks that currently have less than the I-Wave's current cash recommendations.
APCC sold 33 shares at $28.11 and
CGNX sold 20 shares at $33.49.
Best regards, Tom
Thanks K, We'll look forward to hearing how it progresses.
The PIC stocks are run with classic AIM settings, but I do control Cash Reserve both at the start and also along the way with the I-Wave and "vealies."
Best regards, Tom
STOCK PICS FOR AIM
I use the MSN stock screener for picking AIM stocks. I have been following their screen and various methods for quite awhile. No doubt many methods can be used as Tom's Valueline stocks. I set up a practice portfolio of three stocks using separate AIM accounts following the aggressive classical method from the book. The stocks are BSX, COF, and KRB. This was started 7/1/05. The idea for this came from the book "Online Investing" by Jon Markman who writes for MSN money. I'll report next qtr. and thereafter regarding results.
The AIM/PIC List is updated and now available for viewing at:
http://www.aim-users.com/pic.htm
Nil for the YTD Gain overall, but several trades during the year so far.
Best regards, Tom
A NEW PIC Stock for the portfolio.
Helen of Troy (Toiletries & Cosmetics) joins the PIC list with a Timeliness of "5", lowest in Value Line while still being listed on their "Highest Growth Stocks" list. It reached a cyclical high in 1998 at $26 and a low in 2000 of $4. It then recovered to a new cyclical high of $37+ in 2004. Value Line mentioned that this entire sector is currently "out of favor" with low Timeliness ranking. Sounds like a great time to be considering it for AIM management.
Value Line Info
BETA = 0.95 (unexciting)
Stock's Price Stability = "30" (acceptable)
52 Week Hi/Low = $37.36/$21.53
BUSINESS: Helen of Troy Ltd. designs, develops, and markets hair dryers, curling irons, combs and brushes, hair accessories, and foot care products primarily in North America. The Consumer Products Divison distributes Vidal Sassoon, Revlon, Sable, Sunbeam, Dazey, and Dr. Scholl's brands to retailers. The Professional Salon Divison markets products under Helen of Troy, Hot Tools, Salon Edition, and Gallery Series labels to beauty/barber industry. Home Health Care Divison sells products under Dr. Scholl's brand name. Acquired OXO Int'l., 6/04. Has 681 emplys. Off. and dir. own 24.2% of stock; Columbia Wanger Asset Mgnt., 6.8%; (6/04 Proxy). Chairman & CEO: Gerald J. Rubin. Addr.: One Helen of Troy Plaza, El Paso, TX 79912. Tel.: 915-225-8000. Internet: www.hotus.com.
__________________________________________________________
Helen of Troy likely finished off fiscal 2004 (ended February 28th, 2005) with a rather lackluster 10% year-over-year share-net advance. Late in the fourth quarter, the company lowered its sales and earnings expectations for the final period of the year, due to softer-than-expected Christmas sales across many categories of merchandise. This, in turn, resulted in lower sales by HELE to certain retailers in late January and early February, as customers pared their overall inventory levels. As such, we now look for the company to post fiscal 2004 earnings of about $2.40 a share, down from our earlier estimate of $2.60, on a 21% sales advance.
Prospects for the current fiscal year are considerably brighter. Indeed, sales in the latter part of February returned to prior expected levels, and we do not look for HELE's fourth-quarter sales difficulties to have any long-term impact on sales. Moreover, Helen of Troy is poised to roll out roughly 85 new products at the International Home and Housewares Show in Chicago, which augurs well for the company's prospects in fiscal 2005. Finally, the recent acquisition of OXO International, a producer of consumer product tools in several categories, should significantly bolster the company's top-line performance. As such, we remain comfortable with our fiscal 2005 $2.90 share-net estimate.
A lean cost structure is key to Helen of Troy's long-term prospects. A large percentage of the company's goods are manufactured by foreign subcontractors in China and Asia, and then shipped to large discount chains in the United States, such as Kmart, Target, and Wal-Mart. These retailers typically prefer ordering from a few suppliers, giving HELE greater market penetration. In addition, the company has proven to be particularly adept at lifting its bottom line through the use of licensing agreements to use trademark brand names.
Helen of Troy stock is an unappealing selection for the year ahead. However, investors with a longer-term perspective should take a look, as the issue offers alluring appreciation potential through 2008-2010, thanks, in large part, to the double-digit top- and bottom-line improvements we look for over that period.
Kenneth A. Nugent April 1, 2005
________________________________________________________
Insider buying in Feb., 2005
Long Term Debt as % of Cap structure = 42%
HELE starts in the portfolio at last week's Monday open price of $23.72 with a 55% allocation of the $10,000 to the stock and 45% held in Cash Reserve.
PIC List Updates to come soon.
Best regards, Tom
Hi T4H, Looking back on the number of sales that happened at the end of Feb. and the first week of March, it's nice to see we sold shares when we did! Prices are down on many of the PIC stocks just since that update.
I'm glad the update helps!
Best regards, Tom
very nice update. thank you tom.
The entire PIC List is updated for the first time since early December for your review at:
http://www.aim-users.com/pic.htm
Best regards, Tom
I noted with some glee that ELX was on Value Line's "Best performers - last 13 weeks" list this week with a rise of 39.9% in that period of time. It's been on our PIC List of candidates for 28 weeks and is up over 32% even while carrying the Cash Reserve along with it.
So, sometimes this seems to work!
Best regards, Tom
This week we're adding yet another stock to the PIC virtual portfolio. Invacare (IVC) is added today at $46.26 with the appropriate cash reserve. Last week we added NYT at $23.20. I'll be updating the graphs for the Year End soon.
Cerner has been eliminated from the PIC list because of sub par estimated 3-5 year performance. This has been an excellent PIC stock giving us an 88% gain while part of the virtual portfolio.
Not a lot of buying opportunities for AIM to help out with total performance. I guess we can live with that!
Best regards, Tom
funny. hhmmm. very interesting. looks like the second half of the year usually fares better than the first half. buying in august and selling in december or january looks like it is a great plan.
i guess it doesn't matter that they merged. it is still a cruise line.
http://www.blashing.com/_members_/_historical_price_graphs_/CCL.php
Fair Issacs (FIC) managed to trip its second trade since joining the PIC list.
Nice profit also for such a short time in the AIM/PIC Warehouse.
Best regards,
Tom
Hi T, Anyone interested in Cruise Lines must like to Rome....
I looked at Value Line's appraisal of CCL. They consider it somewhat fully priced right now but a company that's doing well.
It seems to have some cyclical behavior. It's not as tightly patterned as the old Club Med was, however. I wasn't aware that CCL had merged with Princess Cruises. See what happens when we start to do some study!
Best regards, Tom
t-iv very funny. how did you know i was roman.
Hi T-IV, Re: Annual cycles for AIM.....
I brought up Carnival Cruises in StockCharts.com to see how it looks. While it's been a great stock to own for the last three years, it only offeren AIMers some reasonable buy/sell action in the first year or so. Since then it would have been on a selling spree. (not that that's all bad!)
It looks as though AIM would have handled that first year very well and built out the portfolio nicely before the long runup which took the stock up about 100%.
Best regards, Tom
very interesting. thanks for sharing your past successes.
we can only learn from our history.
Hi T4H, Re: Seasonality....
I made a potful of money years ago trading Club Med's stock. Up for Spring Break, Down for Hurricane Season. Just like clockwork. AIM loved it!
I think you could play the cruise lines in a similar fashion. Cruise ships can sail away from hurricanes, though!!!
Keep up the good work!
Tom
wow, osi really did have a great november like i predicted. that seasonal stuff works pretty good.
tom, thank-you for your thoughts. that's a good idea to aim like a fund. i will certainly try that.
that pic idea worked good to find a stock like osi in the first place. maybe filtering pic picks by seasonality would be a great way to pick the best pics.
stockseasonality and blashing are two good ihub boards on this topic.
good luck to everyone and thanks.
The PIC list is fully updated with new graphs, trades, etc.
http://www.aim-users.com/pic.htm
Best regards, Tom
Hi T4H, Re: OSI.....
This is a very new holding for the PIC list. It was just added at the end of October (at $39+, I believe).
AIM's target to add to the position would be at $33.91. Maybe you can make a mental note to attack at that point.
Re: PIC list Trades......
This week AIM had the PIC stocks sell 14 shares of CERN at $52.65 and 12 shares of FIC @ $33.71.
Another possibility for AIMing would be instead of separate AIM accounts for each stock, run it as a mutual fund and own small amounts of each. When the group's overall price rises, you'd sell something out of the bunch. When the asset value dropped, you'd add more of one of them.
I'm glad you're enjoying the AIM Users. A pretty good bunch.
Best regards, Tom
seasonaly for osi, october & november seem to be its best months with december doing ok. this might end up being a decent pick in the short term. my reference: http://www.blashing.com/_power_waves_/OSI.php
i wish i had more money to buy higher priced stocks like this. i guess i should just start buying small amounts of them. that's what aim is all about huh. i'm so gunshy. i am learning lots reading from you all and others. thanks!
Hi Tom
>>>>Thanks for your help on this, TF. Do I sense a new "Assistant" coming on line here???<<<<
As much as I find the pick list interesting I am really really trying to stay away from individual stocks (I did buy STKL recently though). I feel much more comfortable AIMing funds (ETF) which can't go to zero and should rarely become deep divers and stop trading.
The only thing that concerns me about ETF's is the lack of imput in corporate government. As stockholders we have little enough say as it is. Not sure what will happen if ETFs own 50% of some stocks.
Toofuzzy
Hi TF, I may copy your simplified rules description directly into the header here! I'm using the higher of the range as the cut off point. So, if it's 25% to 75%, then it would still pass.
The target will change over time as well. Right now Value Line's requirements are for an 11% growth per year. However, back in 2001 when we started this project, VL's requirements were for 13% per year. So, depending upon what VL's requirements are for creating the list at the time, we'll also use that as our cut-off for delisting.
Thanks for your help on this, TF. Do I sense a new "Assistant" coming on line here???
Best regards, Tom
Hi TF, The idea of selling when a stock hit Timeliness #1 was initially suggested as a simple strategy for traders. I felt AIM needed more time than that might be, so never used the #1 Timeliness as a sell point. Hope this makes some sense.
The PIC stocks are such an interesting bunch that they could be used by a variety of investors and strategies. They seem particularly well suited to AIM so far.
Best regards, Tom
Proposed Rules:
Buy stocks that are:
1)On Value Lines Highest Growth List
2)Buy when Timeliness #5
Sell stocks when:
1)No longer covered by Value Line
or
2)Expected 3-5 year growth = less than (x)% (x = 70???)
Should that be Value Lines minimum expected growth or maximum??
ex: A stock has an expected 3-5 year growth of 25-75%. Should we keep it on the list or not?
Just a suggestion
Toofuzzy
Hi Tom
The explanation makes perfect sence. One more "rule" you may want to make explicit is that if Value Line stops coverage on a stock it is sold. Since Value Line is where you are getting your info from, if they no longer cover the stock, you have no way of judging it.
It sounds like you are dropping the rule to sell if it reaches Timliness #1 also.
Thanks again for all the work you do.
Toofuzzy
Hi TF, I've refined the overall PIC strategy since starting it. It seemed logical to bounce the stocks if they returned to a #1 Timeliness in the beginning, but at that point we had no experience.
The removal of several stocks from the PIC list in the last few months was based upon two facts. 1) the list was getting exceedingly long. 2) some stocks had risen so much that their future potential had been "used up."
Pete had been updating our PIC graphs regularly for us, but his computer crashed. So, you are back to Yours Truly doing it once a month.
So, I'll edit the PIC web page to show what we're doing for our editing of the components. Essentially, when I review the PIC list I check to see if the Value Line 3-5 year gain is good enough to have kept the stock in the realm of the Highest Growth Stocks list, even if it's no longer officially on the list.
If you compound 11% annually for 5 years you come up with just under 70% overall gain. Currently the Highest Growth Stocks list calls for an 11% compound growth rate to make the list (both retrospectively for 10 years and prospectively for the next 3-5 years). So, we want all the stocks to meet that requirement which was why they had been on the HGS list in the first place.
This seems better to me than the #1 Timeliness rule. A stock could potentially hit #1 and still have a 3-5 year compound growth potential of 35% per year. Why throw that one out? If a stock, on the other hand, only had a 5% potential per year and was Timeliness #3 it means that its growth time may be over.
I'll amend the web page. Sorry for the confusion. We'd not edited the list since the start other than Elan when it vanished from Value Line. The list had become very long - longer than was practical for most people to use as an investment model. So, we started hacking away at it. It's more reasonable in length now. We've left the histories of those deleted PICs on the site so people can see what had been the history of even the delisted ones.
I'm accounting for the delisted ones in the overall profit/loss statement. I assumed a pool of investment money to start. If all the stocks were still owned, then we'd have invested $10,000 (equity plus cash) in each. So, when we sell off a holding, we return the proceeds to a "cash" holding. $10,000 is returned plus whatever profit or loss has been accrued. This seems to be working out well.
Further as we add new PIC stocks, the $10,000 to start it is taken from the "cash" holding. Currently there's a sizable cash balance available for new PIC stocks as we've eliminated more than we've added in recent times.
I'm open for other suggestions on what to do. PIC was an experiment to see if 1) buying out of favor high growth stocks was a good idea. 2) whether it is even a better idea to buy them and manage them with AIM. So far it's been pretty good even with the cats and dogs we've accumulated along the way.
We've not culled stocks because of poor performance, only if their future growth potential had moderated. This is important to me. Hiding our "mistakes" wasn't part of the plan. For better or worse, the sore thumbs are there with the diamond rings. Even so, we're kicking the S&P500's butt.
PDAH's work for a year or so was a big relief. I also think he benefitted from actually "managing" the list in that he learned quite a bit about many different companies, AIM, vealies, the I-Wave cash limiter and other things. I assume he's lurking still from his local library until his machine is replaced. Thank you Pete for all your hard work.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Tom:
Thanks for your reply.
I don't mean the below to be as critical as it sounds.
One of the things I like about AIMing is the consistent rules that get rid of the emotion of investing. You react to the market instead of hoping the market does anything particular.
You set up the pick list with certain rules to follow. If you are going to add additional "rules" (close out account if 3-5 year expected growth less than 50%)I wish you would add them in the masthead of the investorhub PICKLIST thread and also on your website.
This is taken from your website:
>>>>>As more stocks from the VL Highest Growth Stocks list fall to Timeliness #5 they'll be added to this list. Should stocks get bumped off the Highest Growth Stocks list, they'll remain on the PIC list just to keep continuity and to give AIM a chance to manage the holding. (Note the list below shows whether they remain on HGS) These are candidates for study as possible investments. (Disclaimer - Some of the stocks shown are owned by me in my personal account.) They are usually very far out of favor when they are listed and well off their previous 52 week highs. As may be the case, they might just fall further before gaining back any of their previous glory. The worst case is that they'd be "delisted" by falling off the "Highest" list. Even so, these companies could well be managed with profitable results. Here's what Value Line does to compile their list of 100 growth stocks:<<<<<
As I understand the "rules"
1)Buy when on "highest growth list" and Timeliness #5
2)Sell when Timeliness #1
3)Keep AIMing if thrown off list
Nowhere in the paragraph from your site (above)does it say to sell if the expected growth is less than 50%
I know in the past that you threw a few other stocks(that weren't doing well) off the list, I believe for some other reason but I don't remember why off the top of my head.
Anyway I am just reqesting that the complete rules be posted.
Trying to not pull my hair out;
Toofuzzy
Hi TF, Both stocks "3 to 5 Year Projected price" increase had been used up in the recent rally. They're now showing growth of zero to about 50% over the next 3-5 years.
Neither are currently Timeliness #1, which would also have been cause to review for a bounce (MCRS = #2 and TROW = #3). MCRS is still on the Highest Growth Stocks list, but TROW has fallen off the list.
Stocks need to grow an expected 70% to maintain their position on the Hightest Growth Stocks list. Micros is only expected to grow an additional 30% in price and TROW an additional 50%.
Best regards, Tom
Tom Re the stocks being removed from the list
Are they being removed because their timeliness went to 1? Are they still on the highest growth list?
Toofuzzy
Two stocks are being removed from the PIC list this week for the sin of performing too well in recent times! MCRS and TROW are both guilty of using up too much of their 3 to 5 year potential in too short a time. Both performed quite well while on the PIC list of high growth stocks.
and
Overall the account continues to do quite well with an gross profit of 39.6% overall. Profit of on-going investments is currently about 18%.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Pete, The PIC list generated some activity again this last week with three "vealies" and a sale.
CERN vealie at $48.92 (38% Cash)
CSD Sale of 23 shares at $55.29
MCRS vealie at $68.50 (38% Cash)
TROW vealie at $59.97 (38% Cash)
Overall profitability continues to advance for the PIC/AIM portfolio.
http://www.aim-users.com/pic.htm (updated 10/25/2004)
Best regards, Tom
Hi Pete, This week was a busy one for the PIC Warehouse. Four trades were indicated by AIM - all Sells.
We sold
22 shares of MTW at $38.77
13 shares of ROST at $27.75
and performed "vealies" on
MCRS at $64.70 (currently showing 39% Cash)
TROW at $58.09 (currently showing 39% Cash)
The account is up 5.7% for the Year To Date.
The investment ratio is 71.9% Invested/28.1% Cash Reserve.
Best regards, Tom
Outback Steak House, OSI, joins the PIC list this week with a starting price/share of $39.43. It has a Cash Reserve of $3700 for the starting position. OSI joins the PIC list near its 52 week low showing the patience the PIC selection process has.
Best regards, Tom
RE: PIC Trades this week......
Two trades occurred as of Friday's closing prices
Sold 37 shares of MCRS on a surprise move to $59.12.
Sold 23 shares of WMS at $29.25.
These trades are not reflected in the recent update of the PIC web page
http://www.aim-users.com/pic.htm
Overall profit moved to 35.4% with this week's closing prices.
Year To Date profit moved up to +3.3% VS SPY at +2.6%
Equity/Cash ratio for active accounts is 72% Stocks/ 28% Cash.
Best regards, Tom
CLE, FHCC and CSCO have been ended as part of the PIC list. Their 3-5 year projections fell below the 11%/year that the Highest Growth Stocks list in Value Line is currently showing.
All three closed profitably.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Pete, I've been watching CBK closely. It's been a little slow out of the box for one of our PIC stocks. It's amazing how many of them have been in Retail. Maybe that's the effect of a consumer society.
CBK seems to have plenty of movement for AIM management in the past. We'll have to see how it does on-going.
and our brief history......
(note: the "next Sell price will be lower after Pete executes the hypothetical trade)
Best regards, Tom
10/17/2004 Update
Buy 28 CBK @ 15.22
I sure did Tom,
Are you going to send me a copy of your HTML or will the copy I currently have be ok for me to update?
I think that running the piclist like a real fund will give some people a real good idea of the power of AIM.
Pete
Hi Pete, This week was a mixed bag as your review of the PIC list shows. Did you notice at the PIC page that I've edited the culled stocks' graphs with closing comments?
Best regards, Tom
10/8/2004 Update
Buy 39 CGNX @ 25.52
Sell 11 CSC @ 48.88
We've removed the following stocks from the PIC list and have finalized the graphics at the web site. Of the nine stocks we are removing (all because of poor3-5 year potential) only three were showing a loss at their close-out.
ERICY, LEG, MKL, PLAB, SCH, TLAB, VOL, VPI, and ZQK.
ZQK was the best of this group while ERICY was the worst. Overall we're retiring these stocks with an average gain of about 25%.
http://www.aim-users.com/pic.htm
Best regards, Tom
Hi Pete, Sounds good to me. It should all work out eventually.
So, we'll maintain our usual cash reserves for each component and then have this "idle cash" which will change from time to time. That should be okay.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Tom,
Cash is part of the portfolio equation so we should count it in any annual projections. Of course if we buy 4 more new positions this year then it is a moot point.
Pete
Hi Pete, Yes, and that may make the PIC list self funding from now on. That would be pretty cool and the accounting will be more representative of how it's performing.
I'll be checking the 3-5 year projections in Value Line more frequently from now on. That will keep the list current.
The surplus cash is a bit troublesome. If we include it in our annual results, it will dilute performance in a good year and prop it up in a bad year. Should we do our annual checkups only on the active AIM accounts and ignore the surplus in that accounting?
Best regards, Tom
Tom,
I a quick review of the culls we would end up with
$120,368.23 from selling ERICD, LEG, MKL, PLAB, SCH, TLAB, VOL, VPI and ZQK.
We have bought ELX, FHCC, FIC, FIC, SWFT, TIF and ROST which would reduce the cash to $50,368.23.
Is this what you came up with??
Pete
Sounds Good to Me Tom,
I will start to work on it today.
Pete
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