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Hi Pete, Re: culling some stocks from PIC......
I think your idea is a good one. Let's "sell" all of ERICY, LEG, MKL, PLAB, SCH, TLAB, VOL, VPI and ZQK and take the cash and equity sales proceeds and put them into a new holding. We'll call this new holding "CASH_" and put in 10 shares at $1/share and the remainder into the cash reserve for that stock. This account would currently be worth about $110,000.
So, then all the cash from close outs would go to this part of Newport. Any time we buy a new issue, like ROST, we'll take cash from the CASH_ account by using the TRADE window and the REDUCE CASH feature. We'd be reducing it by $10,000 since that's what our initial positions always are.
I also like the idea of backdating the transactions to the beginning of 2004 for all new investments we've made this year. That would reduce the total in the CASH_ holding to a more reasonable level.
This should also help to cut down on your workload as we'd have final close-out images of those nine stocks. Then next week you would have that number fewer issues to review.
In the future, as any of the remaining stocks reach a point where their 3-5 year potentials drop to below what is acceptable, we'll cull those as well and feed the CASH_ account.
Let me know if this is okay. I'll finalize the culled stocks and footnote everything in the HTML page if you'd like.
Best regards,
Tom
Hi Tom,
Yes the cash is up to 44% so I guess I should have done a vealie. But is has been 10 months since the last sale so I went ahead and sold. If you want I can back the sale out and then do the vealie. I am at your orders.
Pete
thanks Tom, that's the data I was looking for. As for the underperformance this year, the magnitude of the underperformance is so small, I'd consider it a draw. Do you still have any fundamental data for these selections? It would be intriguing to compare debt/equity ratios (or VL financial strength rating) for the successful PIC stocks versus the unsuccessful PIC stocks.
My suspicion, of course, is that the unsuccessful stocks were ones that tended to have fairly high debt levels.
Hi AH, PIC I.C.U.......
Yes, there's some stocks on the PIC list that are in the Intensive Care Unit. Some may not make it back to portfolio profitablility.
It's a very simple selection process that should do well overall. With a bit of further screening or judgement it would probably be even better. However, the goal was to look at a simple contrary method of using Value Line's "Timeliness" and "Highest Growth Stocks" list.
Pete will be updating the graphs at the first of the new week. I think there's a new one that we need to add, as well. I'll double check that. It's yet another retailer, I believe.
We compare the PIC list to the S&P 500 at each update period. At the end of August we were behind the SP500 for the YTD. For the year over year comparisons, we've beaten it 3 of 3 years so far.
http://www.aim-users.com/pic.htm
Best regards, Tom
Hi Pete, How's MTW's Cash Reserve? Seems to me it was pretty plump the last I looked. Should a "vealie" be considered?
The PIC portf. seems to have had a better week this week.
It's chilly here this AM. 35°F and first frost on the roof tops at 7AM. Brrrrrr!
Best regards, Tom
Tom, your A.I.M. PIC list is an example of a contrarian screen that I discuss on The Contrarian Board
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=2923
Do you have any data that shows how these picks have compared to any benchmark index? Have any stocks appeared on the AIM PIC list that, subsequently, died or entered the trauma ward?
10/3/2004 Update
Sell 19 MTW @ 36.04
9/27/2004 Updates
Buy 23 CCU @ 32.75
Buy 49 CHUX @ 16.18
Buy 44 CSCO @ 18.40
Sell 51 VPI @ 20.32
Hi Pete, Thanks for the updates.
I noted that INTC is showing Negative Cash Reserve.
You may want to back part of that last buy out of Newport. Use the same trade date and price/share and just reduce the trade size enough to eliminate the deficit. Then all should be well with the graph.
Looks like if you do a "Buy" of -20 shares (minus twenty) at $21.62 during the week of 08/23/2004 it should take care of the problem.
Thanks,
Tom
9/20/2004 Update
Sell 51 Shares ELX @ 13.04
Sell 13 Shares MCRS @ 50.92
Aim up 24.28%
B&H up 24.11%
Ytd Changes
Aim up 2.62%
B&H down -.28%
S&P 500 up 1.50%
Hi Keith, Wish I'd known the dates. I think that's my daughter's graduation from nursing school. I'll check and report back.
Jane and I were in an Iberostar in Mexico this spring. Nice place.
We were supposed to be at the I-star in Dom. Rep. a year ago in the spring, but they over-booked. We ended up at another place and had fun. I might have had a glass or two of rum with tonic.
Sorry I missed the discussion. I must have been playing cars.
Best regards, Tom
Tom, click the "Star" on the map that is close to the Gulf.
http://www.iberostar.com/
On the next window, in bottom right hand corner click "-Ib.Hacienda Dominicus, that will get you to the resort. DR = Dominican Republic.
Here are some other web sites that I have reviewed.
http://www.debbiesdominicantravel.com/iberostar.html
http://www.drhotels.com/english/index.htm
http://www.altosdechavon.com/
http://hacienda.iberodise.com/
http://www.outbacksafari.com.do/
Jack and I started discussing the possibility of an informal AIM meet at a general vacation spot back in July. I jumped the gun on him when I booked mine last week but I knew if I didn't push the button then it would never happen for me. Eve & I need the time away reel bad.
Here's what we got.
Dear KEITH FELKINS,
Thank you for making your reservation with TRAVEL WITH US INC! This email is your
notification that your reservation is now confirmed. We recommend that you print out this email
and save it until your departure.
Reservation Number: NC081003
Passenger(s): KEITH FELKINS
EVELYN STAGE
Vacation Dates: 04DEC to 11DEC
Deposit Due (USD): $ 438.00 by 10SEP
Total Price (USD): $ 2488.20
Payment Applied (USD): $ 0.00
Balance Due (USD): $ 2488.20 by 20OCT
Again, thank you for choosing TRAVEL WITH US INC. Have a great vacation!
Sincerely,
amyr
TRAVEL WITH US INC
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I T I N E R A R Y
Flights: Qty:
US2714 MEM to CLT Depart: 04DEC (SA) 7:00AM 2 Seats
Class:T Arrive: 04DEC (SA) 9:37AM
OPERATED BY US AIRWAYS EXPRESS-MESA AIRLINES
US 799 CLT to PUJ Depart: 04DEC (SA) 10:25AM 2 Seats
Class:T Arrive: 04DEC (SA) 2:46PM
US 788 PUJ to CLT Depart: 11DEC (SA) 4:00PM 2 Seats
Class:T Arrive: 11DEC (SA) 6:33PM
US2864 CLT to MEM Depart: 11DEC (SA) 8:05PM 2 Seats
Class:T Arrive: 11DEC (SA) 8:58PM
OPERATED BY US AIRWAYS EXPRESS-MESA AIRLINES
Hotel ( Punta Cana ): Qty: Price/
Qty: Sub-Total:
Iberostar Hacienda Dominicus - All Inclusive Check-in: 04DEC(SA) 2 Adults 1059.00 2118.00
Category: Run of House Check-out: 11DEC(SA)
Options/Features ( Punta Cana ):
PFC/Segment Fee and 9.11 Security Fee 2 Adults 13.70 27.40
Round-Trip Punta Cana Airport/La Romana Htl Xfers 2 Adults
Hotel Add-On 14 Adults
Dominican Republic Gov't Fees/Taxes NC 2 Adults 102.40 204.80
Trip Cancellation Waiver 2 Adults 69.00 138.00
Vacation Totals:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$1244.10*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$2488.20
* The Vacation Total divided by 2 passengers.
Advisories:
Punta Cana 2C
This vacation price does NOT
include the $11 Tourist Card which
must be purchased upon arrival in
Punta Cana
***********************************
Notice:
Documents will be sent via standard shipping options.
I hope other AIMers will consider this as an opportunity.
Keith
oops,
You are so correct Tom.
it was a Sell of 1 share of MKL @ 303.99
Sorry about that folks.
Pete
Hi Pete, I think that might have been one share of MKL sold at $303......
Best regards, Tom
Congratulations Pete, Sounds like the fun's just starting. This weekend I took my youngest to the two day Skip Barber advanced highway driving class at Road America. Now wife and both kids are graduates.
Hard to believe 17 years ago I was toting this one around in one arm!
Please send my best wishes to the new arrival and her family.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Keith, Okay, where's DR? Or is that an MD? So, the MD is going to try to help sick portfolios?
If it's informal, does that mean I don't have to wear my wizard's robe?
Best regards, Tom
Hi all,
Grandbaby has arrived. 9/11/2004 @ 11:50pm
AnnaLisa Marie Stewart
6lb 8oz 18"
She is a perfect little baby doll, Her father says the 10' wall with razor wire will be going up in the next cople of weeks.
Mother, Baby, Father and Grandmother are doing fine.
No graphs this week I didn't get home until 3:30am on 9/12
Definately worth the wait for that first grandchild.
Pete
9/12/2004 Updates
Sell 14 LEG @ 28.02
Sell 1 MCRS @ 303.99
Sell 30 VPI @ 17.85
Sell 25 ZQK @ 25.90
Buy 49 VOL @ 22.78
AK, Tom ya got me confused with Santa Claus, I'm in AR... <smile>
Ya guys sure have done some serious scratching lately. I like your adjustments to ACG on the dividend drop.
I don't know if Jack J has told ya but were having an informal AIM meet in DR Dec 4th thru the 18th....
Keith
Hi Keith, Good to have you back! All's well in AK, I hope. You've been spared from the worst of the first two storms, Looks like Ivan's going to steer east of you as well.
You remember Bruce Bowman? His catamaran is in Key West. They're high and dry in New Mexico right now, but they're watching the weather very closely!!! So far, GooseBumps (the ship) has been fine.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Tom, I havn't been able to internet cause of an XP problem. Think it is fixed!
Like your thoughts on the exits for the fat ones. Tieing to the VL ranking makes big sense to me.
Thxs
LemonHead@Slayed.XPP.org
Hi Tom
Well We could subtract the three new buys that we had this year from that 110,000 dropping it down to 80,000. All you need to do is tell me which ones to sell and all the cash will go into a cash account. I don't know how we are going to do the ytd figures as the cash account could fluctuate quite a bit.
Your thoughts on how to do that would be appreciated. I would adjust the prior year ending figure for cash either up or down depending on whether or not we sell out of a position or we purchase a new position.
Pete
Hi Pete, Executing the sales would generate nearly $110,000 of cash. That could weigh as quite an anchor on the rest of the remaining stocks. I'll have to think about how we'll account for this.
BTW, the "average" gain for selling all nine stocks would work out to about 24%. Not too bad.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Pete, I've been looking over the PIC list and think we should institute an "exit strategy" for these stocks. It will require a bit of screening on my part, but shouldn't be too much of a problem.
First, I'd suggested that we sell out of these stocks should they return to the status of being Timeliness #1 to maintain our contrary nature. I think we should do this. That would take out three stocks right away. ZQK, TLAB and ERICY. Those three are currently ranked #1 for timeliness (as of last week). Further ZQK is expected to only turn a positive 10% to 55% over the next 3-5 years, TLAB only 10% to 65% and ERICY the same at 10% to 65%. That puts it below the 11% compound growth that V/L's Highest Growth Stocks list is currently requiring to be listed.
Using this "growth" filter, we can also eliminate LEG, MKL, PLAB, SCH, VOL and VPI. None of these is expected by Value Line to grow at better than 65% over the next 3-5 years, so falls at a point of less than 11% growth compounded.
I suggest we start a new AIM account called "CASH" into which we add all the proceeds of these sales. I'd suggest we set it up with 10 shares at $1/share and the remainder in its Cash Reserve format.
From this point forward we'll subtract from this "CASH" account each time we buy a new PIC stock. Any time one reaches a #1 Timeliness we'll sell out of it and add the cash back to the CASH account.
We can then finalize the the images of the stocks we've eliminated and you won't have to renew them any more. That will cut down the work load and also possibly improve the overall performance of those remaining investments. The "CASH" investment won't go up, which will hinder results, but it also won't go down in value. In the end if free cash doesn't be come the Tail wagging the Dog, it should all even out.
How does this sound to you?
Best regards,
Tom
Hi AH
Well Living up in North Georgia at least the hurricanes have to get through 300 miles of landfall before it gets to us.
I don't think that North Florida is so crowded like the lower part of the state is and I am from the North Florida area
Tallahassee to be exact. Lived there from 1973 thru 1995.
Lived in Orlando from age 2 to age 11 and then Fort Myers from 11 to 14.
age 15 to 17 in Hattiesburg Mississippi then in the service (navy) far east until 1973 when I went back home.
Pete
"Now I remember why I moved out of Florida..."
Maybe Frances or Ivan will persuade more people to leave Florida. Not necessarily a bad thing. I love it here- sunny, blue sky again today. The only thing I don't like about Florida is that it is too congested. Maybe would-be Floridians will opt for the Carolinas instead. Reminds me of Yogi Berra's saying 'no one goes there anymore, it's too crowded'.
It's one of the great things about the U.S., we don't need anyone's permission to live in almost any kind of environment you prefer. Want desert, mountain, tundra, tropics, beach, lake, valley, city, town, wilderness, farm, whatever.
As for natural disasters, I don't think any place is immune. At least with hurricanes, you get some warning.
Hi Tom,
Had a wet run this morning...daughter went to hospital at 2am this morning, Son in law called at 7:30am and we were enroute by 8:00 am. Un fortunately daughter's cotractions eased off by 10:00am and she was sent home to labor at home for awhile.
Francis has dropped a lot of light rain in my area (nw Metro Atlanta) some wind but I have seen worse thunderstorms. Now I remember why I moved out of Florida...
Pete
Thanks Pete, I just got back from a weekend of racing in Michigan. I'll catch up starting Tuesday.
In the mean time, keep your feet dry as Frances rolls past!
Best regards, Tom
9/5/2004 Updates
Buys
Buy 247 BBDB @ 3.00 Halfway to the wall
Buy 74 WMS @ 20.76
Hi Pete, Speaking of BBDB, today, Monday it's up between 5% and 6%. They must have read your note and bid it up!!!
Best regards, Tom
8/29/2004 Update
No Buys or Sales this week.
BBDB.TO will buy some time after 9/8 if the market keeps it down.
WMS is also waiting for the 4 week period to expire along with APCC.
Updated graphs and html have been sent to Tom and he will have them up on the web asap once he gets back home.
Pete
8/22/2004 Update
Non Executed Trades
Buy 1008 BBDB @ 2.88
Buy 178 TLAB @ 9.14
Buy 56 WMS @ 21.57
Buy 137 CDN @ 11.55
Sell 45 CLE @ 24.50
Buy 71 CSCO @ 18.88
Buy 48 INTC @ 21.62
Buy 63 SMTC @ 17.97
Hi Pete, We have a new listing for the PIC. Tiffany & Co. fell to a #5 Timeliness this week (TIF). Maybe it's a Jewel, maybe it's a Diamond in the Rough. Maybe it's tarnished. Can't tell from this angle yet.
Let's add it to the PIC AIM account with 69% invested and 31% Cash. $6900 should buy 233.740 shares at $29.52 per share (today's close).
I've been reviewing a method of culling out stocks from the PIC to bring it to a more simple form for upkeep. More on that this next week.
Hi Pete, Thanks again for your continued efforts in updating the PIC list each week. I've uploaded your most recent graphs and totals to
http://www.aim-users.com/pic.htm
All looks pretty good considering the stinky market place recently. If CSCO remains down this week that's going to be a huge buy.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Pete, It's hard to maintain that month delay regime, isn't it? So many friends; it's hard to know who to play with!!
Thanks for the update. The cash will be well spent when it happens.
Best regards, Tom
8/15/2004 Update
We had a whole bunch of purchase orders that were ignored again this week. If the prices stay down for another week the aim will have a shopping spree.
The only aim executed order was for 68 shares of ELX @ 9.33
Pete
Hi Tom
I tend to agree with you. Of course a few more positions getting a buy that haven't had one yet would be nice so that we have most positions taking advantage of this pull back.
Pete
Hi Pete, Looks like we're going to have a mixed bag today as far as Green and Red go. It also appears to be a big mix also since last week's updates. Maybe we're seeing some bottoming action.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Pete, Those pent up orders will maybe fill as the clock runs down on the 30 day delay. Nice fat orders if they filled like that!
Thanks for the update.
I've been contemplating some ideas of the "weeding out" process for the PIC list since it's getting a bit large.
More later,
Tom
8/8/2004 Update
Non Executed trades Due to last purchase happened less than 4 weeks ago.
Buy 38 CBK @ 14.78
Buy 59 CDN @ 12.52
Buy 32 CGNX @ 27.10
Buy 36 ELX @ 9.76
But 24 INTC @ 22.77
Buy 79 PLAB @ 13.61
Buy 56 SMTC @ 18.19
Buy 494 BBDB.TO @ 3.00 Half way to wall purchase
Buy 32 WMS @ 23.91
Hi Tom
I will add FIC to the pic list with 227.432 shares at 28.58 and 3499.99 in cash reserve.
I think that we need to cull the pic list to remove some of the deep divers to get the cash for this purchase. In other words we need to actually manage this portfolio for the best returns possible.
It will be your call of which positions to liquidate to get the funds for this purchase. This way we can have a true ytd %change for the year.
Pete
A New PIC Stock.......
Fair Isaac is a computer software and services company (FIC) which has done a very good job in the past of growing sales, earnings, book value and other measurables. They've had some turbulance recently and this has dropped their Value Line "Timeliness" rank to #5, Lowest for the year ahead.
As we've seen in the past, about the time V/L drops the Timeliness rank to 5 most of the storm has passed. With AIM to guide us it could be a very nice addition to one's portfolio.
We'll be adding it to our PIC list this week with a price of $28.58 (last Friday's close) with 65% of the allocated $10,000 being invested. 35% will be held as Cash Reserve until AIM signals a trade. This gives us 227.432 shares for the account.
While not the wildest chart we've ever seen, there's solid 30% moves available for our AIM strategy to enjoy. Our PIC list continues to do very well in a very tough market. See: http://www.aim-users.com/pic.htm for further information.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Pete, Thanks for checking on APCC.
On Bombardier, we'll still use the 30 day delay. Yes, the next buy's going to be a dandy!
Best regards, Tom
Hi Tom
Don't know how I missed APCC but I can execute the trade as of 8/1/2004.
Also do we want to wait a full 4+ weeks on BBDB.TO It is getting up to quite a few shares to buy.
Pete
Hi Pete, It looks as though APCC has some pent up buying demand. Looks like plenty of cash and a buy signal that's well beyond trivial.
Any thoughts?
Best regards, Tom
8/1/2004 Update
Activity slowed down a little from last week. Only one trade.
Buy 21 FHCC @ $14.02
Pete
Thanks Pete, Many of the PIC stocks are coming into AIM's Buy target range. I've been watching and waiting on some of these. I may add some stocks to my "real life" portfolio on this setback. It's going to mean selling out of some older inventory items to raise cash for some of these nice PIC stocks.
Best regards, Tom
Update for 7/25/2005
Back from family re-union in FLA. No Graph updates this week.
Buy 33 CSCO @ 20.93
Buy 133 PLAB @ 13.92
Update for 7/25/2005
Back from family re-union in FLA. Not Graph updates this week.
Buy 33 CSCO @ 20.93
Buy 133 PLAB @ 13.92
Hi Pete, I didn't notice the error until you mentioned it. I'll correct it when I get to the office.
So, AIM/PIC is about even with the SPY for the YTD while holding a pot full of cash. Not a bad place to be. A week or two ago BARRONS did their quarterly review of mutual funds. I'll have to look at it to see how PIC is performing by comparison to those professionally managed stock funds.
I'll report on that later.
Best regards, Tom
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