AIM UK

[ls7550]

FT100 (4331) Yield 4.92% = 36.5% cash reserve indicated.

[ls7550]

FT100 (4396) Yield 4.85% = 40% cash reserve indicated.

The 200dma has recently been breached (rising from below to above)

[ls7550]

FT100 (4189) Yield 5.06% = 34.4% cash reserve indicated.

On a TA basis, the current FT All-Share is rising up and very near its 200 day moving average, increased volatility to either the up or downside might therefore reasonably be expected over the shorter term.

I've migrated to only applying the stop-loss style I use whenever the current price is above the 200dma, so have been mostly in cash for 'cash' reserves. A rise above the 200dma will re-initiate stop-loss based positions.

[ls7550]

With conventional stock picking there are typically a few stocks that perform badly, a few that perform well and the rest are overall neutral.

If you discount time-value (inflation), typically you might see gain and loss distributions something like that as per the first chart in this next image



Generally after inflation is considered stock prices are a net zero sum gameplay (stock prices collectively rise with inflation).

Dividends might therefore be considered as the value-add benefit above inflation, or the risk-premium for taking on the downside risk of holding stocks.

AIM however sells out of risers, adds to losers and as such has a distribution more like that of the second chart (with classic AIM you never sell out of stock, so in that case the right hand edge would show more of an up than what is shown in that image).

As such it is more of a negative sum gameplay, however AIM has the additional benefit of volatility capture gains from trading stocks in a buy-low/sell-high like manner. Those gains are much more uniformly distributed across the whole range of stocks held and collectively will either counter, under-perform or out-perform the loss from the reduced right hand strong-gainer extremes.

With conventional stock picking you have a high probability of picking a mediocre stock and a low probability of picking a stock that either rises or declines significantly (although at times it would seem that picking large losers is alot more common that perhaps should be the case :)

In concept it's a needle in a haystack hunt. If you don't hold the few strong gainers within your overall stock set then you miss that benefit. Worse still if you hold the large losers but don't hold the best gainers then your results are significantly impacted.

Holdings funds or index trackers is one way to ensure you don't miss the strong gainers.

For AIM'ers however things are simpler as (volatility capture) benefits are distributed much more evenly. We're not playing the needle in a haystack game (although it does in part still hold) as small amounts of volatility capture across the whole compensates for AIM reducing holdings in strong gainers.

AIM's finite limit on how much additional stock is purchased when prices decline also helps the overall balance. And, unlike buy-and-holders, AIM is a part stock/part cash style, so that blend can be adjusted over time in reflection of perceptions as to the more likely future mid-term direction of stock prices (e.g. using vWave).

Typically with AIM you'll see less volatility overall which means both rising less during strong bull periods and declining less during bear periods. In turn that lower volatility adds some compound benefit value in a similar way to how a consistent 10% p.a. is better than alternations of 0% one year, 20% the next.

Classic AIM and AIM-LD (and Ladder) whilst very similar have the difference that LD typically captures more volatility (larger trading) benefits than classic AIM, at the cost of lower right hand type larger gains from a select few stocks.

All-told therefore, it's pretty difficult comparing the different styles as they are distinctly different and each will have its time in the forefront. In many respects therefore vWave serves as another form of AIM, that migrates you more away from the style that has more recently shown the stronger performance and towards the style that has shown the weaker performance. The dividend yield based Ladder shown in the iBox is somewhat similar to that of using the vWave.

[ls7550]

FT100 yield 5.11% = 34% cash reserve indicated

[ls7550]

If you AIM ETF's then you have greater protection against failures (which AIM dislikes), but providing you're diversified enough across a wide range of stocks with no one stock being too large then the odd failure is both to be expected and generally has a relatively low impact upon the whole. Likely those failures will be countered by other stocks that perform unusually well.

On the plus side of AIM'ing at that stock level is that you inherently create multi-way mini-ETF's that span a wide range of styles/class.

For example if I AIM'd two ETF's (to keep things simple) of Emerging Markets and Commodities then contained with both of those ETF's might be some value type holdings and some growth type holdings. Let's assume that there's 50/50 of each of value and growth in both of those ETF's.

If value stocks perform well and growth stocks poorly then that relative performance might not be sizeable enough to trigger a buy or sell within those two ETF based AIM's.

AIM'ing at the stock level however will more likely have some buying and selling activity occuring in reflection of value stocks rising in price/growth stocks declining in price, so you capture some AIM like volatility capture benefits from that particular growth/value relative price motion cycle.

In effect you can make a range of potential home-grown ETF's from a wide range of underline stock holdings, but you don't
actually have to physically create such virtual ETF's as when you AIM at the individual stock level the mechanics of those virtual ETF's is automatic and transparent.

The problem of course is that AIM requires sizeable amounts to be invested, typically $10K stock value per holding. Ladder
is one way in which that can be circumvented as it supports smaller amounts being invested per holding whilst still trading in an AIM like manner.

My guess is that at around a $750K fund value you could drop Ladder and just use AIM, having perhaps $10K stock value in each of 50 individually AIM'd stocks with each having $5K cash reserve. That way any one failing stock loses an acceptably low amount of 2% to 3% of the total fund value. Even then however, Ladder is more flexible in that you can specify the top and bottom stock price levels (price level at which you're all in cash or all in stock) and that price range can be quite narrow if so desired which has the potential of uplifting stock price volatility capture benefits considerably.

One way in which to implement a stock AIM like style might be to, assuming a $100K total investment fund amount, create 50 LD-AIM's (or Ladders) allocating $2K total to each, with 66% stock and 34% cash allocations each.

You might then use the combined cash reserve to add an additional Long or Short position to align the overall actual stock exposure with that indicated by vWave (or similar, I personally use something along the lines of that described in http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=37163437 ).

Where insufficient cash were available to align the actual overall stock exposure with that indicated by vWave then you could resort to using short double (e.g. SDS) e.g. where you had $66K of stock exposure, $33K of cash and vWave indicated 90% cash, 10% stock, then you might buy $56K of short exposure by buying $28K of SDS.

As vWave changes over time and adjustments to actual versus indicated exposure levels need to be made, what I tend to do is use vWave based sells (reduce stock exposure) to realign individual stock AIM's that have fallen into a 'dead-zone' - where the AIM is 100% in stock and the price is significantly below the next sell price level. For example if vWave indicates reduce stock exposure by $1K then I'll sell some of a dead-zones stock (typically at a loss) to raise that AIM's cash reserve, but then realign the AIM's next buy and sell price levels around that lower stock price level so that it re-awakens the AIM back into subsequently capturing stock price volatility capture benefits.

From the link above you can see that generally I expect to pace buy-and-hold using that style alone. Adding on the stock volatility capture benefits (AIM like trading) therefore value-adds to that.

As a ballpark indicator consider this Ladder



Here we have a top stock price at which we're all-out of 120 and a bottom price at which we're all-in of 80 (20% either side of an assumed 100 central price). When allocated $2K of funds then at each Ladder step we trade a unit amount of $470. The steps are proportionately spaced at 10% intervals between the top and bottom price so for each paired buy/sell (up/down) price move of 10% we trade $470 and make a $47 gain.

Typically 10% price moves occur on average around 2 times p.a. which generates a gross volatility capture benefit of 47 x 2 = $94 which relative to the $2000 allocation = 4.7%. That gain might be reflected across 50 such accounts ($100K total fund) and similarly generate 50 x $94 in gains (4.7% of the total fund).

Trading costs however weigh heavily upon this level of account size and trading frequency, for example assuming two $12.50 trading fees per cycle that $25 combined cost knocks down the gains from $47 down to $22. Even then though we're still left with 2 x 22 = $44 against a $2000 allocation = 2.2% net average volatility capture gain.

With less trading frequency (lower trading costs)/larger amounts, more selective top/bottom price ranges etc. it's not that difficult to get overall net volatility capture gains to 4%+ amounts.

[ls7550]

With a Dividend Yield Ladder spanning 2.97% up to 6.8% yield levels, as per Ladder shown in the iBox above, and with the FT100 currently at 3990, Div Yield 5.15%, Cover 2.32, PE 8.36 this implies a 3990 x 0.0515 = 205.5 dividend value and implied top and bottom Ladder FT100 prices of 205.5 / 0.068 = 3021 price for a 6.8% yield and 205.5 / 0.0297 = 6918 price for a 2.97 yield.

A 205.5 yield value with 2.32 cover = 476.72 earnings (which aligns with the reported 8.36 PE) and means that 43% of earnings are being paid in dividends, 57% being retained.

The Ladder therefore caters for around a 24% further price decline from current price levels before being fully loaded into stocks.

Ladder is currently indicating around 35% cash reserve (65% stock exposure).

FT Data source : http://markets.ft.com/ft/markets/researchArchive.asp?report=FTUK&cat=EQ

[ls7550]

Comparing the UK and US dividend yields over the same extended late 1800's to present period reveals some pretty close similarities.

Accordingly I've changed the iBox Ladder to reflect the combined averages, so it should work reasonably well with both the UK FT100 and the US S&P500. I've calculated the levels based on the collective average when using average, mode, median and 1.28 standard deviation based calculations (80% of the Bell curve falls under +/- 1.28 standard deviations, so the more extreme top and bottom 10% of high/low yields fall outside of the Ladders span).

I've levelled the steps based on a $100,000 investment being allocated such that each 'step' occurs at a 5% proportional distance.

Such that a $5725 addition (higher yield) or reduction (lower yield) at each step level would generate a $286.24 step cycle (up/down or down/up type pair) profit (i.e. $286.24 = $5725 traded over a 5% price range).

Typically over time such 5% step cycles occur 6 times p.a., so in concept after $25 round trip trade costs that's a 6 x $261 average net profit ($1566) relative to the $100,000 allocation, or 1.57% of the total fund volatility capture benefit (2.6% relative to the funds at-risk).

The longer term mean yield aligns with an indicated 60/40 stock/cash average blend, which is generally accepted as a reasonable stock/cash (bond) blend.

In concept therefore if stocks average 10% and cash 4.5% then the Ladder might be expected to average 0.6(10) + 0.4(4.5) + 1.57 = 9.37%.

Where however, as I do, the cash is allocated to alternative investments that generate 8.7% as per the stop-loss based style I use, then the expectancy rises to

0.6(10) + 0.4(8.7) + 1.57 = 11.05%

As the stop-loss style I use typically averages 50/50 stock/cash exposure, an alternative way to look at this combined Ladder and Stop-Loss style is as a 80/20 average stock/cash blend that's uplifted by the 1.57% volatility capture benefit

0.8(10) + 0.2(4.5) + 1.57 = 10.47%

Either way there would appear to be a pacing of buy-and-hold after allowing for some costs, whilst doing so in a more timely and dynamic manner that should generally lower overall volatility (risk).

The greatest benefit is that of mainly being out of the market at low yield points - which have often pre-cursored large declines (and over which times the stop-loss style typically get's us out of stocks quickly and in a low-drawdown like manner).

With current yields around 5.1% the updated ladder is indicating around 35% cash reserves.

Clive.

[ls7550]

Hi Tom

From
Stock Market Data Used in "Irrational Exuberance" updated
Robert J. Shiller

(sorted by yield), we have US based top and bottom 10% cut off points of 6.75% and 2.9% dividend yields.

Laddering - as per the updated iBox - using dividend yield spanning that range would seem to be a reasonable indicator of an appropriate amount of cash reserve to carry at any one given time.

For the UK the top 10% is a little higher (around 8%) whilst the lower end is much the same at around 3%.

If you scan down the dates of the top and bottom sets you'll see some commonality with well known low and high price periods (Wall St Crash, 1970's lows and the 1999/2000 highs etc).

Year.Month,SP,Div,Div Yield
1932.06,4.77,0.66,13.83647799
1932.07,5.01,0.6333,12.64071856
1932.05,5.51,0.6867,12.46279492
1932.04,6.28,0.7133,11.35828025
1917.12,6.8,0.69,10.14705882
1931.12,8.44,0.82,9.71563981
1917.11,7.04,0.6792,9.647727273
1932.01,8.3,0.7933,9.557831325
1918.01,7.21,0.68,9.431345354
1932.02,8.23,0.7667,9.315917375
1918.03,7.28,0.66,9.065934066
1918.02,7.43,0.67,9.017496635
1918.04,7.21,0.65,9.015256588
1877.06,2.73,0.245,8.974358974
1932.03,8.26,0.74,8.958837772
1877.04,2.94,0.2633,8.955782313
1917.1,7.68,0.6683,8.701822917
1942.04,7.84,0.68,8.673469388
1877.05,2.94,0.2542,8.646258503
1918.05,7.44,0.64,8.602150538
1877.03,3.17,0.2725,8.596214511
1918.06,7.45,0.63,8.456375839
1942.05,7.93,0.67,8.448928121
1942.03,8.18,0.69,8.435207824
1877.02,3.34,0.2817,8.434131737
1876.12,3.58,0.3,8.379888268
1876.11,3.6,0.3,8.333333333
1877.07,2.85,0.2358,8.273684211
1931.1,10.25,0.8467,8.260487805
1918.07,7.51,0.62,8.255659121
1877.01,3.55,0.2908,8.191549296
1876.1,3.67,0.3,8.174386921
1876.09,3.69,0.3,8.130081301
1873.11,4.04,0.3275,8.106435644
1941.12,8.76,0.71,8.105022831
1917.09,8.12,0.6575,8.09729064
1932.08,7.53,0.6067,8.057104914
1942.02,8.65,0.696667,8.053953757
1918.08,7.58,0.61,8.047493404
1931.11,10.39,0.8333,8.020211742
1918.09,7.54,0.6,7.957559682
1942.06,8.33,0.66,7.923169268
1942.01,8.93,0.703333,7.876069429
1933.02,6.25,0.49,7.84
1933.03,6.23,0.485,7.784911717
1932.1,7.12,0.5533,7.771067416
1873.1,4.19,0.325,7.756563246
1938.04,9.89,0.766667,7.751941355
1876.08,3.93,0.3,7.633587786
1917.08,8.53,0.6467,7.58147714
1938.03,10.31,0.78,7.565470417
1938.05,9.98,0.753333,7.548426854
1941.11,9.37,0.706667,7.541803629
1918.1,7.86,0.59,7.506361323
1920.12,6.81,0.51,7.488986784
1942.07,8.64,0.646667,7.484571759
1932.11,7.05,0.5267,7.470921986
1873.12,4.42,0.33,7.466063348
1950.12,19.75,1.47,7.443037975
1877.08,3.05,0.2267,7.432786885
1921.06,6.55,0.485,7.404580153
1874.06,4.46,0.33,7.399103139
1874.07,4.46,0.33,7.399103139
1921.08,6.45,0.4767,7.390697674
1874.08,4.47,0.33,7.382550336
1942.08,8.59,0.633333,7.372910361
1874.05,4.48,0.33,7.366071429
1921.07,6.53,0.4808,7.362940276
1932.12,6.82,0.5,7.331378299
1876.07,4.1,0.3,7.317073171
1949.06,13.97,1.02,7.301360057
1874.1,4.53,0.33,7.284768212
1941.05,9.43,0.686667,7.281728526
1931.09,11.83,0.86,7.269653423
1874.09,4.54,0.33,7.268722467
1874.12,4.54,0.33,7.268722467
1937.12,11.02,0.8,7.259528131
1938.06,10.21,0.74,7.247796278
1951.06,21.55,1.56,7.238979118
1917.07,8.79,0.6358,7.233219568
1921.03,6.88,0.4975,7.231104651
1876.06,4.15,0.3,7.228915663
1874.11,4.57,0.33,7.221006565
1919.01,7.85,0.5667,7.21910828
1918.12,7.9,0.57,7.215189873
1875.01,4.54,0.3275,7.213656388
1918.11,8.06,0.58,7.196029777
1875.06,4.38,0.315,7.191780822
1950.11,19.83,1.42333,7.177660111
1876.05,4.18,0.3,7.177033493
1884.06,4.46,0.32,7.174887892
1885.01,4.24,0.3042,7.174528302
1875.02,4.53,0.325,7.174392936
1874.04,4.6,0.33,7.173913043
1884.11,4.35,0.3117,7.165517241
1941.1,9.83,0.703333,7.154964395
1950.07,17.38,1.24333,7.153797468
1919.02,7.88,0.5633,7.148477157
1921.09,6.61,0.4725,7.148260212
1884.12,4.34,0.31,7.142857143
1942.09,8.68,0.62,7.142857143
1921.04,6.91,0.4933,7.138929088
1884.07,4.46,0.3183,7.1367713
1938.02,11.04,0.786667,7.125606884
1875.07,4.39,0.3125,7.118451025
1921.01,7.11,0.5058,7.113924051
1921.02,7.06,0.5017,7.106232295
1875.05,4.47,0.3175,7.102908277
1875.1,4.3,0.305,7.093023256
1941.04,9.64,0.683333,7.088516598
1874.01,4.66,0.33,7.081545064
1941.06,9.76,0.69,7.069672131
1884.1,4.44,0.3133,7.056306306
1937.11,11.2,0.79,7.053571429
1951.05,21.93,1.54667,7.052758778
1951.07,21.93,1.54667,7.052758778
1875.09,4.37,0.3075,7.036613272
1875.08,4.41,0.31,7.029478458
1951.03,21.63,1.52,7.02727693
1873.09,4.59,0.3225,7.026143791
1875.03,4.59,0.3225,7.026143791
1932.09,8.26,0.58,7.021791768
1938.01,11.31,0.793333,7.01443855
1951.01,21.21,1.48667,7.009288072
1951.04,21.92,1.53333,6.995118613
1921.1,6.7,0.4683,6.989552239
1907.11,6.25,0.4367,6.9872
1933.01,7.09,0.495,6.981664316
1950.08,18.43,1.28667,6.98138904
1874.03,4.73,0.33,6.976744186
1950.09,19.08,1.33,6.970649895
1933.04,6.89,0.48,6.966618287
1949.07,14.76,1.02667,6.955758808
1917.05,8.86,0.6142,6.93227991
1950.1,19.87,1.37667,6.928384499
1875.11,4.37,0.3025,6.922196796
1884.05,4.65,0.3217,6.91827957
1917.06,9.04,0.625,6.913716814
1876.04,4.34,0.3,6.912442396
1919.03,8.12,0.56,6.896551724
1949.12,16.54,1.14,6.892382104
1875.04,4.65,0.32,6.88172043
1874.02,4.8,0.33,6.875
1921.05,7.12,0.4892,6.870786517
1949.11,16.11,1.10667,6.869459963
1875.12,4.37,0.3,6.864988558
1884.09,4.59,0.315,6.862745098
1941.02,9.89,0.676667,6.841931244
1920.11,7.48,0.5117,6.840909091
1941.09,10.24,0.7,6.8359375
1941.03,9.95,0.68,6.834170854
1951.02,22,1.50333,6.833318182
1885.02,4.37,0.2983,6.826086957
1941.08,10.21,0.696667,6.82337904
1950.01,16.88,1.15,6.812796209
1949.05,14.78,1.00667,6.811028417
1920.08,7.6,0.5167,6.798684211
1949.08,15.29,1.03333,6.758207979
1941.07,10.26,0.693333,6.757631579
1949.1,15.89,1.07333,6.754751416
1950.03,17.35,1.17,6.74351585
1950.02,17.21,1.16,6.740267286
1876.01,4.46,0.3,6.726457399
1940.06,9.67,0.65,6.721820062
1949.09,15.49,1.04,6.714009038
1877.09,3.24,0.2175,6.712962963
1951.08,22.89,1.53333,6.698689384
1907.12,6.57,0.44,6.697108067
1884.08,4.74,0.3167,6.681434599
1885.03,4.38,0.2925,6.678082192
1949.04,14.89,0.993333,6.671141706
1876.03,4.51,0.3,6.651884701
1876.02,4.52,0.3,6.637168142
1919.04,8.39,0.5567,6.635280095
1950.04,17.84,1.18,6.614349776
1917.04,9.17,0.6033,6.579062159
1921.11,7.06,0.4642,6.575070822
1940.07,9.99,0.656667,6.573243243
1949.03,14.91,0.98,6.572769953
1920.06,7.92,0.52,6.565656566
1908.02,6.6,0.4333,6.565151515
1885.04,4.37,0.2867,6.560640732
1923.1,8.03,0.5267,6.559153176
1920.07,7.91,0.5183,6.552465234
1942.1,9.32,0.61,6.545064378
1920.09,7.87,0.515,6.543837357
1907.1,6.64,0.4333,6.52560241
1949.02,14.77,0.963333,6.522227488
1920.1,7.88,0.5133,6.513959391
1940.08,10.2,0.663333,6.503264706
1920.02,8.1,0.5267,6.502469136
1885.05,4.32,0.2808,6.5
1931.06,13.87,0.9,6.488824802
1951.09,23.48,1.52,6.473594549
1920.05,8.06,0.5217,6.472704715
1923.07,8.06,0.5217,6.472704715
1923.08,8.1,0.5233,6.460493827
1950.05,18.44,1.19,6.453362256
1917.02,9.03,0.5817,6.441860465
1923.09,8.15,0.525,6.441717791
1873.08,4.97,0.32,6.438631791
1950.06,18.74,1.2,6.403415155
1885.06,4.3,0.275,6.395348837
1884.04,5.06,0.3233,6.389328063
1873.07,4.97,0.3175,6.38832998
1923.11,8.27,0.5283,6.38814994
1941.01,10.55,0.673333,6.382303318
1908.01,6.85,0.4367,6.375182482
1931.05,14.33,0.9133,6.373342638
1951.11,22.71,1.44667,6.370189344
1917.03,9.31,0.5925,6.364124597
1940.12,10.53,0.67,6.362773029
1922.01,7.3,0.4642,6.35890411
1924.05,8.47,0.5383,6.355371901
1937.1,12.28,0.78,6.351791531
1951.1,23.36,1.48333,6.349871575
1884.01,5.18,0.3283,6.337837838
1942.11,9.47,0.6,6.335797254
1873.06,4.98,0.315,6.325301205
1930.12,15.51,0.98,6.318504191
1924.04,8.5,0.5367,6.314117647
1940.09,10.63,0.67,6.302916275
1877.1,3.31,0.2083,6.29305136
1921.12,7.31,0.46,6.292749658
1931.08,13.9,0.8733,6.282733813
1922.02,7.46,0.4683,6.277479893
1908.03,6.87,0.43,6.259097525
1924.06,8.63,0.54,6.257242178
1940.1,10.73,0.67,6.24417521
1982.07,109.4,6.82333,6.237047532
1923.06,8.34,0.52,6.23501199
1982.08,109.7,6.83667,6.232151322
1982.06,109.7,6.81,6.207839562
1923.12,8.55,0.53,6.198830409
1942.12,9.52,0.59,6.197478992
1873.05,5.05,0.3125,6.188118812
1931.07,14.33,0.8867,6.187718074
1883.12,5.34,0.33,6.179775281
1919.05,8.97,0.5533,6.168338907
1949.01,15.36,0.946667,6.163196615
1873.04,5.04,0.31,6.150793651
1924.03,8.7,0.535,6.149425287
1884.02,5.32,0.3267,6.140977444
1884.03,5.3,0.325,6.132075472
1919.08,8.87,0.5433,6.125140924
1948.12,15.19,0.93,6.12244898
1877.11,3.26,0.1992,6.110429448
1922.03,7.74,0.4725,6.104651163
1953.09,23.27,1.42,6.102277611
1883.1,5.38,0.3283,6.102230483
1940.11,10.98,0.67,6.102003643
1920.04,8.6,0.5233,6.084883721
1940.05,10.58,0.643333,6.080652174
1952.05,23.73,1.44,6.068268015
1982.03,110.8,6.72,6.064981949
1920.03,8.67,0.525,6.055363322
1931.01,15.98,0.9667,6.049436796
1893.08,4.08,0.2467,6.046568627
1885.07,4.46,0.2692,6.035874439
1883.11,5.46,0.3292,6.029304029
1952.04,23.74,1.43,6.02358888
1951.12,23.41,1.41,6.023067065
1924.01,8.83,0.5317,6.021517554
1873.03,5.11,0.3075,6.017612524
1924.02,8.87,0.5333,6.012401353
1948.02,14.1,0.846667,6.004730496
1924.07,9.03,0.5417,5.99889258
1872.11,4.95,0.2967,5.993939394
1919.09,9.01,0.54,5.993340733
1924.1,9.13,0.5467,5.987951807
1920.01,8.83,0.5283,5.983012458
1923.05,8.67,0.5183,5.978085352
1883.08,5.47,0.3267,5.972577697
1919.06,9.21,0.55,5.971769815
1913.12,8.04,0.48,5.970149254
1953.1,23.97,1.43,5.965790572
1952.02,23.75,1.41667,5.964926316
1917.01,9.57,0.5708,5.964472309
1952.03,23.81,1.42,5.963880722
1913.11,8.05,0.48,5.962732919
1948.11,15.29,0.91,5.951602354
1952.06,24.38,1.45,5.947497949
1948.03,14.3,0.85,5.944055944
1919.12,8.92,0.53,5.941704036
1953.06,23.95,1.42,5.929018789
1873.02,5.15,0.305,5.922330097
1883.09,5.53,0.3275,5.922242315
1952.1,24.26,1.43667,5.921970322
1878.02,3.18,0.1883,5.921383648
1873.01,5.11,0.3025,5.919765166
1872.12,5.07,0.3,5.917159763
1913.06,8.12,0.48,5.911330049
1872.1,4.97,0.2933,5.901408451
1908.04,7.24,0.4267,5.893646409
1924.09,9.25,0.545,5.891891892
1930.11,16.62,0.9792,5.891696751
1893.07,4.18,0.2458,5.880382775
1953.11,24.5,1.44,5.87755102
1872.09,4.95,0.29,5.858585859
1952.09,24.78,1.45,5.85149314
1943.01,10.09,0.59,5.847373637
1877.12,3.25,0.19,5.846153846
1953.07,24.29,1.42,5.846027172
1931.04,15.86,0.9267,5.843001261
1982.02,114.5,6.69,5.84279476
1952.01,24.19,1.41333,5.842620918
1953.12,24.83,1.45,5.839710028
1913.07,8.23,0.48,5.832320778
1938.07,12.24,0.713333,5.827883987
1982.05,116.4,6.78,5.824742268
1953.08,24.39,1.42,5.822058221
1878.01,3.25,0.1892,5.821538462
1924.08,9.34,0.5433,5.816916488
1913.1,8.26,0.48,5.811138015
1922.12,8.78,0.51,5.808656036
1922.04,8.21,0.4767,5.806333739
1982.04,116.3,6.75,5.803955288
1919.11,9.19,0.5333,5.80304679
1914.07,7.68,0.445,5.794270833
1878.03,3.24,0.1875,5.787037037
1952.07,25.08,1.45,5.781499203
1907.09,7.45,0.43,5.771812081
1952.08,25.18,1.45,5.758538523
1923.01,8.9,0.5117,5.749438202
1919.07,9.51,0.5467,5.748685594
1922.07,8.51,0.4892,5.74853114
1922.11,8.8,0.5058,5.747727273
1922.06,8.45,0.485,5.73964497
1914.08,7.68,0.44,5.729166667
1954.01,25.46,1.45667,5.721406127
1953.04,24.71,1.41333,5.719668151
1914.12,7.35,0.42,5.714285714
1916.12,9.8,0.56,5.714285714
1915.02,7.38,0.4217,5.714092141
1894.01,4.32,0.2467,5.710648148
1953.05,24.84,1.41667,5.703180354
1872.08,5.04,0.2867,5.688492063
1924.11,9.64,0.5483,5.687759336
1948.01,14.83,0.843333,5.686668914
1952.11,25.03,1.42333,5.686496205
1883.07,5.73,0.3258,5.685863874
1913.08,8.45,0.48,5.680473373
1923.04,9.1,0.5167,5.678021978
1982.01,117.3,6.66,5.677749361
1980.04,103,5.84667,5.676378641
1914.01,8.37,0.475,5.675029869
1893.12,4.41,0.25,5.66893424
1919.1,9.47,0.5367,5.667370644
1907.08,7.53,0.4267,5.666666667
1914.04,8.12,0.46,5.665024631
1871.1,4.59,0.26,5.664488017
1914.09,7.68,0.435,5.6640625
1883.02,5.68,0.3217,5.663732394
1893.09,4.37,0.2475,5.663615561
1922.05,8.53,0.4808,5.636576788
1882.06,5.68,0.32,5.633802817
1913.09,8.53,0.48,5.627198124
1915.01,7.48,0.4208,5.625668449
1954.02,26.02,1.46333,5.623866257
1883.05,5.77,0.3242,5.618717504
1938.09,11.75,0.66,5.617021277
1913.05,8.55,0.48,5.614035088
1883.03,5.75,0.3225,5.608695652
1878.04,3.33,0.1867,5.606606607
1882.05,5.71,0.32,5.604203152
1871.11,4.64,0.26,5.603448276
1914.1,7.68,0.43,5.598958333
1982.09,122.4,6.85,5.596405229
1885.08,4.71,0.2633,5.590233546
1914.03,8.32,0.465,5.588942308
1947.12,15.03,0.84,5.588822355
1922.08,8.83,0.4933,5.586636467
1883.06,5.82,0.325,5.58419244
1915.03,7.57,0.4225,5.581241744
1938.08,12.31,0.686667,5.578123477
1914.05,8.17,0.455,5.569155447
1878.05,3.34,0.1858,5.562874251
1916.08,9.3,0.5167,5.555913978
1872.07,5.1,0.2833,5.554901961
1894.02,4.38,0.2433,5.554794521
1908.05,7.63,0.4233,5.547837484
1903.11,6.28,0.3483,5.546178344
1914.02,8.48,0.47,5.54245283
1931.02,17.2,0.9533,5.54244186
1980.03,104.7,5.8,5.539637058
1903.1,6.26,0.3467,5.538338658
1885.09,4.65,0.2575,5.537634409
1882.03,5.78,0.32,5.53633218
1882.04,5.78,0.32,5.53633218
1914.06,8.13,0.45,5.535055351
1914.11,7.68,0.425,5.533854167
1954.03,26.57,1.47,5.532555514
1923.02,9.28,0.5133,5.53125
1882.02,5.79,0.32,5.526770294
1883.01,5.81,0.3208,5.52151463
1948.09,15.76,0.87,5.520304569
1948.04,15.4,0.85,5.519480519
1943.02,10.69,0.59,5.519176801
1893.1,4.5,0.2483,5.517777778
1926.05,11.56,0.6375,5.514705882
1925.04,10.28,0.5667,5.512645914
1981.09,118.3,6.52,5.511411665
1882.11,5.81,0.32,5.507745267
1883.04,5.87,0.3233,5.507666099
1908.06,7.64,0.42,5.497382199
1948.1,16.19,0.89,5.497220506
1871.07,4.73,0.26,5.496828753
1922.09,9.06,0.4975,5.491169978
1926.04,11.48,0.63,5.487804878
1871.12,4.74,0.26,5.485232068
1916.07,9.23,0.5058,5.479956663
1882.12,5.84,0.32,5.479452055
1981.1,119.8,6.55667,5.473013356
1980.05,107.7,5.89333,5.471987001
1872.02,4.88,0.2667,5.465163934
1923.03,9.43,0.515,5.461293743
1913.04,8.79,0.48,5.460750853
1930.1,17.92,0.9783,5.459263393
1872.06,5.13,0.28,5.458089669
1913.03,8.8,0.48,5.454545455
1893.11,4.57,0.2492,5.452954048
1953.02,25.86,1.41,5.452436195
1916.09,9.68,0.5275,5.449380165
1871.08,4.79,0.26,5.427974948
1878.06,3.41,0.185,5.425219941
1953.03,25.99,1.41,5.425163524
1911.09,8.67,0.47,5.420991926
1922.1,9.26,0.5017,5.417926566
1872.01,4.86,0.2633,5.417695473
1948.08,15.94,0.863333,5.416141782
1952.12,26.04,1.41,5.414746544
1925.03,10.39,0.5625,5.41385948
1924.12,10.16,0.55,5.413385827
1882.01,5.92,0.32,5.405405405
1978.03,88.82,4.8,5.404188246
1979.11,103.7,5.60333,5.40340405
1916.1,9.98,0.5383,5.393787575
1947.11,15.27,0.823333,5.391833661
1911.1,8.72,0.47,5.389908257
1953.01,26.18,1.41,5.38579068
1925.05,10.61,0.5708,5.379830349
1916.11,10.21,0.5492,5.379040157
1871.09,4.84,0.26,5.371900826
1937.06,15.64,0.84,5.37084399
1974.12,67.07,3.6,5.367526465
1981.11,122.9,6.59333,5.364792514
1931.03,17.53,0.94,5.362236167
1937.09,14.37,0.77,5.358385525
1872.03,5.04,0.27,5.357142857
1907.06,7.84,0.42,5.357142857
1981.12,123.8,6.63,5.355411955
1933.05,8.87,0.475,5.355129651
1943.11,11.33,0.606667,5.354518976
1913.02,8.97,0.48,5.351170569
1935.03,8.41,0.45,5.350772889
1978.02,88.98,4.75667,5.345774331
1872.05,5.18,0.2767,5.341698842
1915.05,7.95,0.4242,5.335849057
1978.11,94.71,5.05333,5.335582304
1894.07,4.25,0.2267,5.334117647
1882.07,6,0.32,5.333333333
1903.09,6.47,0.345,5.332302937
1943.03,11.07,0.59,5.329719964
1903.12,6.57,0.35,5.327245053
1926.06,12.11,0.645,5.326176713
1881.12,6.01,0.32,5.324459235
1925.06,10.8,0.575,5.324074074
1894.03,4.51,0.24,5.321507761
1979.1,104.5,5.55667,5.31738756
1915.07,8.01,0.4258,5.315855181
1893.06,4.61,0.245,5.314533623
1943.12,11.48,0.61,5.31358885
1878.08,3.45,0.1833,5.313043478
1979.05,99.73,5.29333,5.307660684
1894.05,4.4,0.2333,5.302272727
1894.06,4.34,0.23,5.299539171
1954.04,27.63,1.46333,5.29616359
1910.07,8.64,0.4575,5.295138889
1878.07,3.48,0.1842,5.293103448
1916.06,9.36,0.495,5.288461538
1915.06,8.04,0.425,5.286069652
1904.02,6.5,0.3433,5.281538462
1872.04,5.18,0.2733,5.276061776
1978.12,96.11,5.07,5.275205494
1882.1,6.07,0.32,5.271828666
1926.03,11.81,0.6225,5.270956816
1974.09,68.12,3.59,5.270111568
1948.05,16.15,0.85,5.263157895
1908.07,7.92,0.4167,5.261363636
1979.07,102.7,5.39667,5.254790652
1979.06,101.7,5.34,5.250737463
1979.02,98.23,5.15667,5.249587702
1904.03,6.48,0.34,5.24691358
1947.09,15.06,0.79,5.245683931
1944.04,11.89,0.623333,5.242497897
1979.12,107.8,5.65,5.241187384
1944.02,11.77,0.616667,5.23931181
1925.01,10.58,0.5542,5.238185255
1925.02,10.67,0.5583,5.232427366
1916.05,9.27,0.4842,5.223300971
1978.01,90.25,4.71333,5.222526316
1878.1,3.48,0.1817,5.221264368
1947.1,15.45,0.806667,5.221145631
1916.04,9.07,0.4733,5.218302095
1925.07,11.1,0.5792,5.218018018
1912.02,9.04,0.4717,5.217920354
1878.12,3.45,0.18,5.217391304
1948.07,16.42,0.856667,5.217216809
1978.04,92.71,4.83667,5.216988459
1878.11,3.47,0.1808,5.21037464
1947.05,14.34,0.746667,5.206882845
1907.07,8.14,0.4233,5.2002457
1915.04,8.14,0.4233,5.2002457
1927.01,13.4,0.6967,5.199253731
1910.08,8.85,0.46,5.197740113
1979.03,100.1,5.2,5.194805195
1910.12,9.05,0.47,5.193370166
1910.09,8.91,0.4625,5.190796857
1904.01,6.68,0.3467,5.19011976
1940.04,12.27,0.636667,5.188810106
1940.03,12.15,0.63,5.185185185
1925.08,11.25,0.5833,5.184888889
1878.09,3.52,0.1825,5.184659091
1926.1,13.02,0.675,5.184331797
1980.06,114.6,5.94,5.183246073
1911.11,9.07,0.47,5.181918412
1894.04,4.57,0.2367,5.179431072
1944.05,12.1,0.626667,5.179066116
1882.08,6.18,0.32,5.177993528
1903.08,6.63,0.3433,5.177978884
1944.01,11.85,0.613333,5.175805907
1974.1,69.44,3.59333,5.174726382
1926.11,13.19,0.6825,5.174374526
1926.07,12.62,0.6525,5.170364501
1982.1,132.7,6.85667,5.167045968
1912.01,9.12,0.4708,5.162280702
1913.01,9.3,0.48,5.161290323
1911.12,9.11,0.47,5.159165752
1943.04,11.44,0.59,5.157342657
1927.02,13.66,0.7033,5.148609078
1907.05,8.1,0.4167,5.144444444
1980.01,110.9,5.7,5.139765555
1979.04,102.1,5.24667,5.138756121
1940.02,12.22,0.626667,5.128207856
1882.09,6.24,0.32,5.128205128
1979.01,99.71,5.11333,5.128201785
1904.05,6.5,0.3333,5.127692308
1911.08,9.17,0.47,5.125408942
1944.03,12.1,0.62,5.123966942
1947.06,14.84,0.76,5.121293801
1927.03,13.87,0.71,5.118961788
1912.12,9.38,0.48,5.117270789
1885.1,4.92,0.2517,5.115853659
1926.12,13.49,0.69,5.114899926
1915.08,8.35,0.4267,5.110179641
1925.09,11.51,0.5875,5.104257168
1978.07,97.19,4.94667,5.089690297
1881.11,6.19,0.315,5.088852989
1943.08,11.74,0.596667,5.082342419
1912.03,9.3,0.4725,5.080645161
1944.09,12.6,0.64,5.079365079
1943.1,11.88,0.603333,5.078560606
1979.08,107.4,5.45333,5.077588454
1879.01,3.58,0.1817,5.075418994
1979.09,108.6,5.51,5.073664825
1904.04,6.64,0.3367,5.070783133
1954.05,28.73,1.45667,5.07020536
1911.01,9.27,0.47,5.070118662
1904.06,6.51,0.33,5.069124424
1879.03,3.65,0.185,5.068493151
1940.01,12.3,0.623333,5.067747967
1911.04,9.28,0.47,5.064655172
1894.08,4.41,0.2233,5.063492063
1948.06,16.82,0.85,5.053507729
1893.05,4.84,0.2442,5.045454545
1947.08,15.46,0.78,5.045278137
1927.04,14.21,0.7167,5.043631246
1916.03,9.17,0.4625,5.043620502
1911.03,9.32,0.47,5.042918455
1881.1,6.15,0.31,5.040650407
1934.09,8.88,0.4475,5.039414414
1926.08,13.12,0.66,5.030487805
1978.06,97.66,4.91,5.027646938
1947.04,14.6,0.733333,5.022828767
1910.11,9.31,0.4675,5.021482277
1908.09,8.17,0.41,5.018359853
1974.11,71.74,3.59667,5.013479231
1939.12,12.37,0.62,5.012126112
1926.09,13.32,0.6675,5.011261261
1935.02,8.98,0.45,5.011135857
1934.1,8.95,0.4483,5.008938547
1954.06,28.96,1.45,5.006906077
1978.1,100.6,5.03667,5.006630219
1943.09,11.99,0.6,5.004170142
1908.08,8.26,0.4133,5.003631961
1978.05,97.41,4.87333,5.002905246
1910.06,9.1,0.455,5
1981.08,129.6,6.47667,4.997430556
1980.07,119.8,5.98333,4.994432387
1975.01,72.56,3.62333,4.993563947
1894.1,4.34,0.2167,4.993087558
1944.11,12.82,0.64,4.992199688
1910.1,9.32,0.465,4.989270386
1903.07,6.85,0.3417,4.988321168
1980.02,115.3,5.75,4.98699046
1937.05,16.25,0.81,4.984615385
1911.02,9.43,0.47,4.984093319
1981.07,129.1,6.43333,4.983214562
1977.12,93.82,4.67,4.977616713
1925.1,11.89,0.5917,4.976450799
1944.06,12.67,0.63,4.972375691
1944.08,12.81,0.636667,4.970078064
1982.11,138.1,6.86333,4.969826213
1943.05,11.89,0.59,4.96215307
1912.07,9.59,0.4758,4.961418144
1912.06,9.58,0.475,4.958246347
1911.05,9.48,0.47,4.957805907
1944.1,12.91,0.64,4.957397366
1879.04,3.77,0.1867,4.952254642
1912.05,9.58,0.4742,4.949895616
1935.04,9.04,0.446667,4.941006637
1879.02,3.71,0.1833,4.940700809
1915.09,8.66,0.4275,4.936489607
1912.04,9.59,0.4733,4.935349322
1895.02,4.19,0.2067,4.933174224
1937.07,16.57,0.816667,4.928587809
1982.12,139.4,6.87,4.928263989
1907.04,8.39,0.4133,4.926102503
1912.11,9.73,0.4792,4.924974306
1927.05,14.7,0.7233,4.920408163
1908.1,8.27,0.4067,4.917775091
1894.11,4.34,0.2133,4.914746544
1894.09,4.48,0.22,4.910714286
1907.03,8.35,0.41,4.910179641
1916.02,9.2,0.4517,4.909782609
1934.08,9.1,0.4467,4.908791209
1927.06,14.89,0.73,4.902619208
1895.01,4.25,0.2083,4.901176471
1977.11,94.28,4.61333,4.893222317
1895.03,4.19,0.205,4.892601432
1944.12,13.1,0.64,4.885496183
1894.12,4.3,0.21,4.88372093
1947.07,15.77,0.77,4.882688649
1934.11,9.2,0.4492,4.882608696
1911.07,9.63,0.47,4.880581516
1881.09,6.25,0.305,4.88
1980.08,123.5,6.02667,4.879894737
1943.06,12.1,0.59,4.876033058
1944.07,13,0.633333,4.871792308
1977.1,93.74,4.55667,4.860966503
1912.1,9.84,0.4783,4.860772358
1911.06,9.67,0.47,4.860392968
1981.02,128.4,6.24,4.859813084
1925.11,12.26,0.5958,4.859706362
1934.12,9.26,0.45,4.859611231
1935.01,9.26,0.45,4.859611231
1912.08,9.81,0.4767,4.859327217
1926.02,12.67,0.615,4.853985793
1984.07,151.1,7.33333,4.853295831
1912.09,9.86,0.4775,4.842799189
1927.07,15.22,0.7367,4.840341656
1881.08,6.2,0.3,4.838709677
1954.07,30.13,1.45667,4.834616661
1939.04,10.83,0.523333,4.832253001
1978.09,103.9,5.02,4.831568816
1981.06,132.3,6.39,4.829931973
1981.05,131.7,6.35333,4.824092635
1888.03,5.08,0.245,4.822834646
1904.07,6.78,0.3267,4.818584071
1925.12,12.46,0.6,4.81540931
1896.08,3.81,0.1833,4.811023622
1943.07,12.35,0.593333,4.804315789
1926.01,12.65,0.6075,4.802371542
1880.06,4.79,0.23,4.801670146
1980.09,126.5,6.07,4.798418972
1879.06,3.96,0.19,4.797979798
1978.08,103.9,4.98333,4.796275265
1888.06,5.01,0.24,4.790419162
1946.11,14.69,0.703333,4.787835262
1900.09,5.8,0.2775,4.784482759
1890.12,4.6,0.22,4.782608696
1879.05,3.94,0.1883,4.779187817
1984.06,153.1,7.31,4.774657087
1888.04,5.1,0.2433,4.770588235
1983.01,144.3,6.88333,4.77015246
1945.01,13.49,0.643333,4.768962194
1939.08,11.54,0.55,4.766031196
1954.08,30.73,1.46333,4.761893915
1879.08,4.07,0.1933,4.749385749
1947.03,15.16,0.72,4.749340369
1879.07,4.04,0.1917,4.745049505
1887.12,5.27,0.25,4.743833017
1900.1,6.01,0.285,4.742096506
1937.08,16.74,0.793333,4.739145759
1939.11,12.67,0.6,4.735595896
1903.06,7.18,0.34,4.735376045
1910.05,9.56,0.4525,4.733263598
1880.09,5.18,0.245,4.72972973
1916.01,9.33,0.4408,4.72454448
1946.1,14.75,0.696667,4.723166102
1880.05,4.77,0.225,4.716981132
1981.03,133.2,6.28,4.714714715
1933.1,9.55,0.45,4.712041885
1887.1,5.2,0.245,4.711538462
1934.07,9.47,0.4458,4.70749736
1930.09,20.78,0.9775,4.704042348
1981.04,134.4,6.31667,4.699903274
1983.02,146.8,6.89667,4.698004087
1930.08,20.79,0.9767,4.697931698
1946.12,15.13,0.71,4.692663582
1885.11,5.24,0.2458,4.690839695
1880.07,5.01,0.235,4.690618762
1880.1,5.33,0.25,4.69043152
1947.01,15.21,0.713333,4.689894806
1939.05,11.23,0.526667,4.689821906
1915.1,9.14,0.4283,4.685995624
1980.1,130.2,6.1,4.685099846
1974.08,76.03,3.56,4.682362225
1977.09,96.23,4.5,4.676296373
1888.01,5.31,0.2483,4.676082863
1888.05,5.17,0.2417,4.675048356
1954.09,31.45,1.47,4.674085851
1888.02,5.28,0.2467,4.672348485
1890.11,4.71,0.22,4.670912951
1938.1,13.06,0.61,4.670750383
1887.11,5.3,0.2475,4.669811321
1945.03,13.93,0.65,4.666188083
1929.11,20.58,0.96,4.664723032
1981.01,133,6.2,4.661654135
1895.04,4.37,0.2033,4.652173913
1881.07,6.35,0.295,4.645669291
1954.1,32.18,1.49333,4.640553139
1984.05,156.6,7.26667,4.640274585
1945.02,13.94,0.646667,4.638931133
1927.08,16.03,0.7433,4.636930755
1939.06,11.43,0.53,4.636920385
1888.07,5.14,0.2383,4.63618677
1930.07,21.06,0.9758,4.6334283
1910.04,9.72,0.45,4.62962963
1880.08,5.19,0.24,4.624277457
1909.02,8.8,0.4067,4.621590909
1879.09,4.22,0.195,4.620853081
1886.05,5.02,0.2317,4.615537849
1885.12,5.2,0.24,4.615384615
1980.12,133.5,6.16,4.61423221
1891.07,4.77,0.22,4.612159329
1904.08,7.01,0.3233,4.611982882
1939.07,11.71,0.54,4.611443211
1909.03,8.92,0.41,4.596412556
1937.04,17.01,0.78,4.585537919
1984.04,157.6,7.22333,4.583331218
1886.01,5.2,0.2383,4.582692308
1893.04,5.31,0.2433,4.581920904
1910.02,9.72,0.445,4.5781893
1984.12,164.5,7.53,4.577507599
1891.03,4.81,0.22,4.573804574
1946.09,15.09,0.69,4.572564612
1908.11,8.83,0.4033,4.567383918
1893.03,5.31,0.2425,4.566854991
1984.03,157.4,7.18,4.561626429
1896.07,4.04,0.1842,4.559405941
1886.04,5.12,0.2333,4.556640625
1977.08,97.75,4.45333,4.555836317
1975.02,80.1,3.64667,4.552646692
1945.04,14.28,0.65,4.551820728
1896.09,4.01,0.1825,4.551122195
1933.11,9.78,0.445,4.550102249
1983.03,151.9,6.91,4.549045425
1935.05,9.75,0.443333,4.547005128
1880.11,5.61,0.255,4.545454545
1891.01,4.84,0.22,4.545454545
1900.08,5.94,0.27,4.545454545
1984.02,157.3,7.15,4.545454545
1915.11,9.46,0.4292,4.536997886
1927.1,16.68,0.7567,4.536570743
1891.06,4.85,0.22,4.536082474
1947.02,15.8,0.716667,4.535867089
1915.12,9.48,0.43,4.535864979
1954.11,33.44,1.51667,4.535496411
1929.12,21.4,0.97,4.53271028
1930.06,21.52,0.975,4.530669145
1934.05,9.81,0.4442,4.52803262
1886.03,5.19,0.235,4.527938343
1933.06,10.39,0.47,4.523580366
1928.02,17.32,0.7833,4.522517321
1980.11,135.7,6.13,4.517317612
1900.11,6.48,0.2925,4.513888889
1888.08,5.25,0.2367,4.508571429
1984.1,164.8,7.43,4.508495146
1887.09,5.38,0.2425,4.507434944
1881.04,6.22,0.28,4.501607717
1984.11,166.3,7.48,4.49789537
1939.1,12.9,0.58,4.496124031
1910.03,9.96,0.4475,4.492971888
1891.02,4.9,0.22,4.489795918
1900.07,5.86,0.2625,4.479522184
1934.06,9.94,0.445,4.476861167
1984.08,164.4,7.35667,4.474860097
1888.12,5.14,0.23,4.474708171
1927.11,17.06,0.7633,4.474208675
1930.01,21.71,0.9708,4.471672041
1886.02,5.3,0.2367,4.466037736
1891.08,4.93,0.22,4.462474645
1880.12,5.84,0.26,4.452054795
1909.01,9.06,0.4033,4.451434879
1903.05,7.6,0.3383,4.451315789
1974.07,79.31,3.53,4.450888917
1891.05,4.95,0.22,4.444444444
1984.09,166.1,7.38,4.443106562
1957.12,40.33,1.79,4.438383337
1909.04,9.32,0.4133,4.434549356
1897.04,4.06,0.18,4.433497537
1896.1,4.1,0.1817,4.431707317
1896.01,4.27,0.1892,4.430913349
1928.01,17.53,0.7767,4.430690245
1908.12,9.03,0.4,4.429678848
1945.08,14.83,0.656667,4.427963587
1927.09,16.94,0.75,4.427390791
1891.04,4.97,0.22,4.426559356
1888.11,5.24,0.2317,4.421755725
1945.07,14.78,0.653333,4.420385656
1985.01,171.6,7.57333,4.413362471
1933.12,9.97,0.44,4.413239719
1897.05,4.08,0.18,4.411764706
1957.11,40.35,1.78,4.411400248
1927.12,17.46,0.77,4.410080183
1881.06,6.58,0.29,4.407294833
1881.03,6.24,0.275,4.407051282
1954.12,34.97,1.54,4.403774664
1887.08,5.45,0.24,4.403669725
1895.12,4.32,0.19,4.398148148
1977.07,100.2,4.40667,4.397874251
1907.02,9.26,0.4067,4.392008639
1977.06,99.29,4.36,4.391177359
1910.01,10.08,0.4425,4.389880952
1983.04,157.7,6.92,4.38807863
1893.02,5.51,0.2417,4.386569873
1945.05,14.82,0.65,4.385964912
1939.09,12.77,0.56,4.385277995
1881.05,6.5,0.285,4.384615385
1889.03,5.19,0.2275,4.383429672
1975.09,84.67,3.71,4.381717255
1886.06,5.25,0.23,4.380952381
1975.03,83.78,3.67,4.380520411
1889.04,5.18,0.2267,4.376447876
1881.02,6.17,0.27,4.376012966
1895.05,4.61,0.2017,4.37527115
1889.01,5.24,0.2292,4.374045802
1904.09,7.32,0.32,4.371584699
1888.09,5.38,0.235,4.36802974
1900.12,6.87,0.3,4.366812227
1888.1,5.35,0.2333,4.360747664
1977.05,98.76,4.30333,4.35736128
1892.12,5.51,0.24,4.355716878
1900.06,5.86,0.255,4.351535836
1935.06,10.12,0.44,4.347826087
1975.04,84.72,3.68333,4.347651086
1955.01,35.6,1.54667,4.344578652
1903.04,7.75,0.3367,4.344516129
1958.01,41.12,1.78333,4.336892023
1890.1,5.08,0.22,4.330708661
1928.03,18.25,0.79,4.328767123
1975.08,85.71,3.71,4.328549761
1909.05,9.63,0.4167,4.327102804
1983.12,164.4,7.09,4.312652068
1933.08,10.67,0.46,4.311152765
1889.02,5.3,0.2283,4.30754717
1945.06,15.09,0.65,4.307488403
1897.02,4.18,0.18,4.306220096
1958.02,41.26,1.77667,4.306034901
1933.09,10.58,0.455,4.300567108
1983.08,162.4,6.98,4.298029557
1897.03,4.19,0.18,4.295942721
1893.01,5.61,0.2408,4.292335116
1957.1,41.24,1.77,4.291949564
1909.11,10.18,0.4367,4.28978389
1892.09,5.48,0.235,4.288321168
1977.04,99.05,4.24667,4.287400303
1909.06,9.8,0.42,4.285714286
1938.11,13.07,0.56,4.28462127
1886.07,5.33,0.2283,4.283302064
1896.06,4.32,0.185,4.282407407
1881.01,6.19,0.265,4.281098546
1896.03,4.38,0.1875,4.280821918
1984.01,166.4,7.12,4.278846154
1892.11,5.57,0.2383,4.278276481
1955.03,36.5,1.56,4.273972603
1983.11,165.2,7.06,4.273607748
1909.12,10.3,0.44,4.27184466
1985.03,179.4,7.66,4.269788183
1901.01,7.07,0.3017,4.267326733
1896.12,4.22,0.18,4.265402844
1897.01,4.22,0.18,4.265402844
1928.07,19.16,0.8167,4.262526096
1928.06,19.02,0.81,4.258675079
1985.09,184.1,7.84,4.258555133
1909.07,9.94,0.4233,4.258551308
1985.04,180.6,7.68667,4.256184939
1895.06,4.7,0.2,4.255319149
1887.07,5.59,0.2375,4.248658318
1880.04,5.18,0.22,4.247104247
1889.05,5.32,0.2258,4.244360902
1909.1,10.23,0.4333,4.235581623
1892.1,5.59,0.2367,4.234347048
1896.02,4.45,0.1883,4.231460674
1889.07,5.3,0.2242,4.230188679
1896.04,4.42,0.1867,4.2239819
1983.05,164.1,6.93,4.223034735
1896.05,4.4,0.1858,4.222727273
1955.02,36.79,1.55333,4.222152759
1886.08,5.37,0.2267,4.22160149
1985.1,186.2,7.86,4.221267454
1936.12,17.06,0.72,4.220398593
1909.09,10.19,0.43,4.219823356
1907.01,9.56,0.4033,4.218619247
1897.06,4.27,0.18,4.215456674
1930.02,23.07,0.9717,4.211963589
1985.02,180.9,7.61667,4.210431177
1970.06,75.59,3.18,4.206905675
1970.07,75.72,3.18333,4.204080824
1958.03,42.11,1.77,4.203277131
1879.1,4.68,0.1967,4.202991453
1895.07,4.72,0.1983,4.201271186
1939.03,12.39,0.52,4.19693301
1983.1,167.7,7.03,4.192009541
1909.08,10.18,0.4267,4.191552063
1891.11,5.25,0.22,4.19047619
1983.09,167.2,7,4.186602871
1901.02,7.25,0.3033,4.183448276
1892.07,5.54,0.2317,4.182310469
1934.01,10.54,0.4408,4.182163188
1975.1,88.57,3.7,4.177486734
1970.05,76.06,3.17667,4.176531686
1895.11,4.59,0.1917,4.176470588
1985.05,184.9,7.71333,4.171622499
1983.06,166.4,6.94,4.170673077
1983.07,167,6.96,4.167664671
1955.05,37.6,1.56667,4.166675532
1939.02,12.4,0.516667,4.166669355
1945.09,15.84,0.66,4.166666667
1890.03,5.28,0.22,4.166666667
1977.03,100.6,4.19,4.16500994
1928.08,19.78,0.8233,4.162285137
1889.06,5.41,0.225,4.15896488
1889.08,5.37,0.2233,4.158286778
1892.06,5.54,0.23,4.151624549
1892.08,5.62,0.2333,4.151245552
1937.01,17.59,0.73,4.150085276
1958.04,42.34,1.75667,4.148960794
1975.12,88.7,3.68,4.148816234
1903.03,8.08,0.335,4.146039604
1937.03,18.09,0.75,4.145936982
1985.08,188.3,7.80667,4.145868295
1933.07,11.23,0.465,4.140694568
1955.04,37.76,1.56333,4.140174788
1889.12,5.32,0.22,4.135338346
1890.02,5.32,0.22,4.135338346
1890.09,5.32,0.22,4.135338346
1935.07,10.65,0.44,4.131455399
1896.11,4.38,0.1808,4.127853881
1891.09,5.33,0.22,4.127579737
1891.1,5.33,0.22,4.127579737
1889.11,5.35,0.2208,4.127102804
1934.03,10.74,0.4425,4.120111732
1928.04,19.4,0.7967,4.106701031
1939.01,12.5,0.513333,4.106664
1895.08,4.79,0.1967,4.106471816
1889.1,5.4,0.2217,4.105555556
1975.05,90.1,3.69667,4.102852386
1977.02,101,4.14333,4.102306931
1887.06,5.73,0.235,4.10122164
1902.12,8.05,0.33,4.099378882
1892.05,5.57,0.2283,4.098743268
1900.05,6.04,0.2475,4.097682119
1985.06,188.9,7.74,4.097406035
1975.11,90.07,3.69,4.096813589
1906.07,9.06,0.3708,4.092715232
1970.08,77.92,3.18667,4.089668891
1890.01,5.38,0.22,4.089219331
1904.1,7.75,0.3167,4.086451613
1937.02,18.11,0.74,4.086140254
1898.04,4.57,0.1867,4.085339168
1886.09,5.51,0.225,4.083484574
1890.04,5.39,0.22,4.081632653
1892.04,5.57,0.2267,4.070017953
1895.1,4.75,0.1933,4.069473684
1930.05,23.94,0.9742,4.069340017
1890.08,5.41,0.22,4.066543438
1891.12,5.41,0.22,4.066543438
1879.12,4.92,0.2,4.06504065
1906.12,9.84,0.4,4.06504065
1930.03,23.94,0.9725,4.062238931
1887.02,5.54,0.225,4.061371841
1901.03,7.51,0.305,4.061251664
1934.04,10.92,0.4433,4.05952381
1880.03,5.3,0.215,4.056603774
1895.09,4.82,0.195,4.045643154
1889.09,5.5,0.2225,4.045454545
1892.02,5.52,0.2233,4.045289855
1880.02,5.2,0.21,4.038461538
1985.07,192.5,7.77333,4.038093506
1897.07,4.46,0.18,4.035874439
1892.03,5.58,0.225,4.032258065
1901.12,7.95,0.32,4.025157233
1892.01,5.51,0.2217,4.023593466
1879.11,4.93,0.1983,4.022312373
1938.12,12.69,0.51,4.01891253
1928.05,20,0.8033,4.0165
1975.06,92.4,3.71,4.015151515
1887.03,5.67,0.2275,4.012345679
1880.01,5.11,0.205,4.011741683
1975.07,92.49,3.71,4.011244459
1901.1,7.91,0.3167,4.003792668
1957.09,43.98,1.76,4.001819009
1945.1,16.5,0.66,4
1902.11,8.24,0.3292,3.995145631
1906.1,9.73,0.3883,3.990750257
1985.11,197.5,7.88,3.989873418
1958.05,43.7,1.74333,3.989313501
1901.05,7.73,0.3083,3.98835705
1887.01,5.58,0.2225,3.987455197
1957.02,43.47,1.73333,3.987416609
1898.03,4.65,0.185,3.978494624
1890.07,5.54,0.22,3.971119134
1906.11,9.93,0.3942,3.96978852
1887.04,5.8,0.23,3.965517241
1903.02,8.41,0.3333,3.96313912
1886.1,5.65,0.2233,3.952212389
1902.01,8.12,0.3208,3.950738916
1955.06,39.78,1.57,3.946706888
1977.01,103.8,4.09667,3.946695568
1890.06,5.58,0.22,3.94265233
1887.05,5.9,0.2325,3.940677966
1901.11,8.08,0.3183,3.939356436
1901.09,8,0.315,3.9375
1936.11,17.36,0.683333,3.93625
1976.11,101.2,3.98333,3.936096838
1902.03,8.2,0.3225,3.932926829
1901.07,7.93,0.3117,3.930643127
1957.03,44.03,1.73,3.929139223
1956.09,46.84,1.84,3.928266439
1902.02,8.19,0.3217,3.927960928
1906.06,9.3,0.365,3.924731183
1903.01,8.46,0.3317,3.920803783
1928.09,21.17,0.83,3.920642419
1890.05,5.62,0.22,3.914590747
1906.05,9.18,0.3592,3.912854031
1956.1,46.24,1.80667,3.907158304
1934.02,11.32,0.4417,3.901943463
1886.12,5.64,0.22,3.90070922
1974.06,89.79,3.5,3.897984185
1901.08,8.04,0.3133,3.896766169
1956.06,46.27,1.8,3.890209639
1990.1,307.12,11.9267,3.883400625
1974.05,89.67,3.48,3.880896621
1946.08,17.7,0.686667,3.879474576
1946.03,17.53,0.68,3.879064461
1956.11,45.76,1.77333,3.875284091
1928.1,21.6,0.8367,3.873611111
1945.11,17.04,0.66,3.873239437
1906.08,9.73,0.3767,3.871531346
1897.11,4.65,0.18,3.870967742
1935.08,11.37,0.44,3.869832894
1976.12,104.7,4.05,3.868194842
1898.05,4.87,0.1883,3.866529774
1958.06,44.75,1.73,3.865921788
1902.06,8.41,0.325,3.864447087
1970.09,82.58,3.19,3.862920804
1955.1,42.11,1.62667,3.862906673
1976.1,101.9,3.91667,3.843640824
1957.04,45.05,1.73,3.84017758
1904.11,8.17,0.3133,3.834761322
1902.05,8.46,0.3242,3.8321513
1902.1,8.57,0.3283,3.830805134
1886.11,5.79,0.2217,3.829015544
1936.1,16.89,0.646667,3.828697454
1956.02,44.43,1.7,3.826243529
1930.04,25.46,0.9733,3.822859387
1957.01,45.43,1.73667,3.822738279
1898.1,5.15,0.1967,3.819417476
1957.08,45.84,1.75,3.817626527
1956.05,46.54,1.77667,3.817511818
1986.01,208.2,7.94,3.81364073
1906.09,10.03,0.3825,3.813559322
1902.04,8.48,0.3233,3.8125
1985.12,207.3,7.9,3.810902074
1990.11,315.29,12.0133,3.810238193
1945.12,17.33,0.66,3.808424697
1976.01,96.86,3.68333,3.802735907
1936.09,16.05,0.61,3.800623053
1935.09,11.61,0.44,3.789836348
1897.08,4.75,0.18,3.789473684
1897.12,4.75,0.18,3.789473684
1902.07,8.6,0.3258,3.788372093
1946.07,18.05,0.683333,3.785778393
1900.04,6.34,0.24,3.785488959
1936.05,14.09,0.533333,3.785188077
1956.01,44.15,1.67,3.782559456
1955.08,42.43,1.60333,3.778765025
1935.1,11.92,0.45,3.775167785
1898.07,5.08,0.1917,3.773622047
1901.04,8.14,0.3067,3.767813268
1956.08,48.49,1.82667,3.76710662
1898.02,4.87,0.1833,3.76386037
1958.07,45.98,1.73,3.762505437
1970.1,84.37,3.17333,3.76120659
1904.12,8.25,0.31,3.757575758
1898.06,5.06,0.19,3.754940711
1990.09,315.41,11.84,3.753844203
1956.12,46.44,1.74,3.746770026
1906.04,9.43,0.3533,3.746553552
1970.11,84.28,3.15667,3.745455624
1905.05,8.5,0.3183,3.744705882
1936.06,14.69,0.55,3.744043567
1974.04,92.46,3.46,3.742158771
1966.1,77.13,2.88333,3.738273046
1897.1,4.82,0.18,3.734439834
1962.1,56.17,2.09667,3.732722094
1898.11,5.32,0.1983,3.727443609
1946.02,18.07,0.673333,3.726247925
1898.01,4.88,0.1817,3.723360656
1905.06,8.6,0.32,3.720930233
1991.01,325.49,12.1067,3.719530554
1936.08,15.87,0.59,3.717706364
1956.07,48.78,1.81333,3.717363674
1955.07,42.69,1.58667,3.716725228
1966.09,77.81,2.89,3.714175556
1900.03,6.26,0.2325,3.714057508
1898.09,5.26,0.195,3.707224335
1962.06,55.63,2.06,3.703037929
1902.09,8.85,0.3275,3.700564972
1902.08,8.83,0.3267,3.69988675
1946.01,18.02,0.666667,3.699594895
1957.05,46.78,1.73,3.698161608
1976.08,103.3,3.82,3.697967086
1905.01,8.43,0.3117,3.697508897
1976.06,101.8,3.76,3.693516699
1976.05,101.2,3.73667,3.69236166
1970.04,85.95,3.17333,3.692065154
1990.12,328.75,12.1,3.680608365
1928.12,23.15,0.85,3.671706263
1898.08,5.27,0.1933,3.667931689
1976.02,100.6,3.68667,3.664681909
1936.07,15.56,0.57,3.663239075
1946.06,18.58,0.68,3.6598493
1974.02,93.45,3.42,3.659711075
1928.11,23.06,0.8433,3.656981787
1987.12,241,8.81,3.65560166
1955.09,44.34,1.62,3.653585927
1976.03,101.1,3.69,3.649851632
1976.09,105.5,3.85,3.6492891
1956.04,48.05,1.75333,3.648969823
1901.06,8.5,0.31,3.647058824
1946.04,18.66,0.68,3.644158628
1976.04,101.9,3.71333,3.644092247
1956.03,47.49,1.73,3.642872184
1957.06,47.55,1.73,3.638275499
1976.07,104.2,3.79,3.637236084
1986.02,219.4,7.98,3.637192343
1946.05,18.7,0.68,3.636363636
1906.03,9.56,0.3475,3.634937238
1955.11,44.95,1.63333,3.633659622
1970.02,87.16,3.16667,3.633168885
1960.1,53.73,1.95,3.629257398
1962.07,56.97,2.06667,3.62764613
1958.08,47.7,1.73,3.626834382
1905.07,8.87,0.3217,3.626832018
1900.02,6.21,0.225,3.623188406
1955.12,45.37,1.64,3.614723385
1897.09,4.98,0.18,3.614457831
1935.12,13.04,0.47,3.604294479
1957.07,48.51,1.74,3.586889301
1962.09,58,2.08,3.586206897
1970.03,88.65,3.17,3.575860124
1987.11,245,8.76,3.575510204
1988.05,256.1,9.13667,3.567618118
1973.12,94.78,3.38,3.566153197
1900.01,6.1,0.2175,3.56557377
1990.08,330.75,11.7833,3.562600151
1905.02,8.8,0.3133,3.560227273
1966.08,80.65,2.87,3.558586485
1988.08,263.7,9.38333,3.558335229
1960.09,54.81,1.95,3.557744937
1988.11,271,9.64,3.557195572
1966.11,80.99,2.87667,3.551882949
1962.08,58.52,2.07333,3.542942584
1905.04,8.94,0.3167,3.542505593
1898.12,5.65,0.2,3.539823009
1974.01,96.11,3.4,3.537613152
1988.01,250.5,8.85667,3.535596806
1958.09,48.96,1.73,3.533496732
1974.03,97.44,3.44,3.530377668
1988.09,268,9.46,3.529850746
1966.12,81.33,2.87,3.528833149
1935.11,13.04,0.46,3.527607362
1905.11,9.31,0.3283,3.526315789
1960.03,55.02,1.94,3.525990549
1960.05,55.22,1.94667,3.525298805
1905.09,9.23,0.325,3.521126761
1929.04,25.28,0.89,3.52056962
1962.11,60.04,2.11333,3.519870087
1988.12,276.5,9.73,3.518987342
1960.11,55.47,1.95,3.515413737
1905.08,9.2,0.3233,3.514130435
1929.05,25.66,0.9,3.507404521
1970.01,90.31,3.16333,3.502746097
1960.07,55.84,1.95,3.492120344
1905.1,9.36,0.3267,3.490384615
1899.12,6.02,0.21,3.488372093
1936.01,13.76,0.48,3.488372093
1960.04,55.73,1.94333,3.48704468
1970.12,90.05,3.14,3.486951694
1906.02,9.8,0.3417,3.486734694
1929.02,24.99,0.87,3.481392557
1905.03,9.05,0.315,3.480662983
1929.06,26.15,0.91,3.479923518
1986.1,237.4,8.24667,3.473744735
1936.04,14.88,0.516667,3.472224462
1969.12,91.11,3.16,3.46833498
1929.03,25.43,0.88,3.460479748
1929.01,24.86,0.86,3.459372486
1905.12,9.54,0.33,3.459119497
1988.07,269.1,9.30667,3.458442958
1986.09,238.3,8.23,3.453629878
1986.03,232.3,8.02,3.4524322
1960.08,56.51,1.95,3.450716687
1988.02,258.1,8.90333,3.44956606
1988.04,262.6,9.04333,3.443766184
1988.1,277.4,9.55,3.442682048
1989.01,285.4,9.81333,3.438447793
1960.12,56.8,1.95,3.433098592
1960.02,55.78,1.90333,3.412208677
1967.01,84.45,2.88,3.410301954
1988.06,270.7,9.23,3.409678611
1989.03,292.7,9.98,3.409634438
1958.1,50.95,1.73667,3.408577036
1960.06,57.26,1.95,3.405518687
1906.01,9.87,0.3358,3.402228977
1962.12,62.64,2.13,3.400383142
1990.02,330.45,11.23,3.398396126
1929.1,27.99,0.95,3.39406931
1986.07,240.2,8.14333,3.390228976
1986.05,238.5,8.07333,3.385044025
1990.04,338.18,11.4367,3.381838074
1986.04,238,8.04667,3.380953782
1899.06,6.07,0.205,3.377265239
1986.11,245.1,8.26333,3.371411669
1988.03,265.7,8.95,3.36846067
1936.02,14.55,0.49,3.367697595
1989.02,294,9.89667,3.366214286
1936.03,14.86,0.5,3.36473755
1971.01,93.49,3.13,3.347951653
1990.03,338.46,11.32,3.344560657
1991.02,362.26,12.1133,3.343813835
1986.08,245,8.18667,3.341497959
1969.08,94.18,3.14333,3.33757698
1989.04,302.3,10.0867,3.336652332
1969.09,94.51,3.15,3.332980637
1986.12,248.6,8.28,3.330651649
1958.11,52.5,1.74333,3.320628571
1966.07,85.84,2.85,3.320130475
1971.11,92.78,3.07667,3.31609183
1969.07,94.71,3.13667,3.311867807
1968.03,89.09,2.95,3.311258278
1967.02,87.36,2.89,3.308150183
1899.01,6.08,0.2008,3.302631579
1986.06,245.3,8.1,3.302079087
1969.1,95.52,3.15333,3.301224874
1990.05,350.25,11.5533,3.298586724
1966.06,86.06,2.83,3.288403439
1899.05,6.21,0.2042,3.288244767
1899.1,6.34,0.2083,3.285488959
1963.01,65.06,2.13667,3.284153089
1969.11,96.21,3.15667,3.281020684
1973.11,102,3.34333,3.27777451
1899.07,6.28,0.2058,3.277070064
1990.01,339.97,11.14,3.276759714
1963.03,65.67,2.15,3.273945485
1958.12,53.49,1.75,3.271639559
1962.05,62.99,2.05333,3.259771392
1961.01,59.72,1.94667,3.259661755
1899.09,6.37,0.2075,3.257456829
1990.07,360.03,11.7267,3.257145238
1991.03,372.28,12.12,3.255614054
1963.02,65.92,2.14333,3.251410801
1989.05,313.9,10.1933,3.24730806
1967.03,89.42,2.9,3.243122344
1966.05,86.78,2.81333,3.241910578
1968.02,90.75,2.94,3.239669421
1899.11,6.46,0.2092,3.238390093
1990.06,360.39,11.67,3.238158661
1929.07,28.48,0.92,3.230337079
1959.02,54.77,1.76333,3.219517984
1960.01,58.03,1.86667,3.216732724
1971.02,97.11,3.12,3.212851406
1991.06,378.29,12.15,3.211821618
1991.05,377.99,12.14,3.211725178
1989.11,340.2,10.9233,3.210846561
1899.08,6.44,0.2067,3.209627329
1991.07,380.23,12.1933,3.206822187
1899.02,6.31,0.2017,3.196513471
1991.04,379.68,12.13,3.194795617
1963.07,69.07,2.20333,3.189995657
1967.04,90.96,2.9,3.1882146
1959.1,57,1.81667,3.187140351
1959.11,57.23,1.82333,3.185968897
1989.06,323.7,10.3,3.181958604
1971.08,97.24,3.09333,3.181129165
1959.09,57.05,1.81,3.172655565
1967.06,91.43,2.9,3.17182544
1991.09,387.2,12.28,3.171487603
1989.12,348.6,11.05,3.169822146
1971.1,97.29,3.08333,3.169215747
1991.11,385.92,12.2267,3.168195481
1991.1,386.88,12.2533,3.167209471
1899.03,6.4,0.2025,3.1640625
1959.01,55.62,1.75667,3.158342323
1969.06,99.14,3.13,3.157151503
1959.03,56.16,1.77,3.151709402
1967.11,92.66,2.92,3.151305849
1963.04,68.76,2.16667,3.151061664
1991.08,389.4,12.2367,3.142449923
1989.07,331.9,10.4233,3.140494125
1991.12,388.51,12.2,3.140202311
1987.01,264.5,8.3,3.137996219
1963.06,70.11,2.2,3.137926116
1899.04,6.48,0.2033,3.137345679
1973.08,103.8,3.25333,3.134229287
1967.05,92.59,2.9,3.132087698
1971.07,99,3.09667,3.127949495
1966.03,88.88,2.78,3.127812781
1961.02,62.17,1.94333,3.125832395
1967.07,93.01,2.90667,3.125115579
1971.03,99.6,3.11,3.12248996
1969.03,99.3,3.1,3.121852971
1959.06,57.46,1.79,3.115210581
1963.05,70.14,2.18333,3.112817223
1959.04,57.1,1.77667,3.11150613
1963.08,70.98,2.20667,3.108861651
1971.06,99.72,3.1,3.108704372
1971.09,99.4,3.09,3.108651911
1987.1,280.2,8.71,3.108493933
1989.1,347.4,10.7967,3.107858377
1963.11,72.62,2.25667,3.10750482
1959.12,59.06,1.83,3.098543854
1968.04,95.67,2.96333,3.097449566
1973.09,105.6,3.27,3.096590909
1971.12,99.17,3.07,3.095694262
1965.07,84.91,2.62667,3.093475445
1929.08,30.1,0.93,3.089700997
1967.08,94.49,2.91333,3.083215155
1968.01,95.04,2.93,3.082912458
1959.05,57.96,1.78333,3.076828847
1968.08,98.11,3.01667,3.074783406
1963.12,74.17,2.28,3.074019145
1973.06,104.8,3.22,3.072519084
1989.09,347.3,10.67,3.072271811
1969.04,101.3,3.11,3.070088845
1965.06,85.04,2.61,3.069143932
1967.12,95.3,2.92,3.064008395
1973.07,105.8,3.23667,3.059234405
1963.1,73.03,2.23333,3.058099411
1965.08,86.49,2.64333,3.056226153
1971.05,101.6,3.10333,3.054458661
1966.04,91.6,2.79667,3.053133188
1967.1,95.66,2.92,3.052477525
1967.09,95.81,2.92,3.04769857
1969.02,101.5,3.09,3.044334975
1989.08,346.6,10.5467,3.042902481
1968.05,97.87,2.97667,3.041452948
1959.08,59.4,1.80333,3.035909091
1963.09,72.85,2.21,3.033630748
1961.03,64.12,1.94,3.025577043
1992.03,407.36,12.32,3.024351925
1992.04,407.41,12.32,3.023980756
1969.01,102,3.08,3.019607843
1992.06,408.27,12.32,3.017610895
1971.04,103,3.10667,3.016184466
1973.1,109.8,3.30667,3.011539162
1962.04,68.05,2.04667,3.007597355
1959.07,59.74,1.79667,3.007482424
1964.01,76.45,2.29667,3.004146501
1929.09,31.3,0.94,3.003194888
1992.1,412.5,12.3867,3.002836364
1968.07,100.3,3.00333,2.994346959
1968.09,101.3,3.03,2.991115499
1964.02,77.39,2.31333,2.989184649
1973.05,107.2,3.20333,2.98818097
1969.05,104.6,3.12,2.982791587
1966.02,92.69,2.76,2.977667494
1964.12,83.96,2.5,2.977608385
1992.02,412.56,12.28,2.976536746
1965.09,89.38,2.66,2.976057284
1968.06,100.5,2.99,2.975124378
1961.07,65.44,1.94667,2.97474022
1992.07,415.05,12.3433,2.973930852
1972.01,103.3,3.07,2.971926428
1992.05,414.81,12.32,2.970034474
1964.06,80.24,2.38,2.966101695
1965.12,91.73,2.72,2.965224027
1987.02,280.9,8.32,2.961908152
1992.09,418.48,12.39,2.960714968
1992.08,417.93,12.3667,2.959036202
1964.03,78.8,2.33,2.956852792
1961.06,65.62,1.94,2.956415727
1964.08,82,2.42,2.951219512
1961.04,65.83,1.94,2.946984657
1992.01,416.08,12.24,2.941741973
1965.03,86.83,2.55,2.936773005
1966.01,93.32,2.74,2.936133733
1964.04,79.94,2.34667,2.935539154
1962.01,69.07,2.02667,2.934226147
1965.1,91.39,2.68,2.932487143
1968.1,103.8,3.04333,2.931917148
1965.11,92.15,2.7,2.930005426
1992.11,422.84,12.3833,2.928601835
1964.05,80.72,2.36333,2.92781219
1987.05,289.1,8.46,2.926323072
1964.09,83.41,2.44,2.925308716
1965.01,86.12,2.51667,2.922282861
1965.04,87.97,2.57,2.921450494
1965.02,86.75,2.53333,2.92026513
1972.02,105.2,3.07,2.918250951
1961.05,66.5,1.94,2.917293233
1961.09,67.26,1.96,2.914064823
1961.1,68,1.98,2.911764706
1987.04,289.3,8.4,2.903560318
1964.11,85.44,2.48,2.902621723
1962.03,70.29,2.04,2.902262057
1965.05,89.28,2.59,2.900985663
1968.11,105.4,3.05667,2.900066414
1964.1,84.85,2.46,2.899233942
1962.02,70.22,2.03333,2.895656508
1994.12,455.19,13.18,2.895494189
1973.04,110.3,3.18667,2.889093382
1964.07,83.22,2.4,2.883922134
1968.12,106.5,3.07,2.882629108
1961.08,67.79,1.95333,2.881442691
1972.07,107.2,3.07333,2.866912313
1993.01,435.23,12.4133,2.852124164
1994.04,447.23,12.7533,2.851619972
1987.03,292.5,8.34,2.851282051
1994.07,451.4,12.87,2.851129818
1972.03,107.7,3.07,2.850510678
1972.05,107.7,3.07,2.850510678
1972.06,108,3.07,2.842592593
1992.12,435.64,12.38,2.841795978
1994.11,461.01,13.0967,2.840871131
1994.05,450.9,12.7967,2.838035041
1995.01,465.25,13.18,2.832885545
1972.1,109.6,3.10333,2.831505474
1987.06,301.4,8.52,2.826808228
1994.06,454.83,12.84,2.823032781
1972.04,108.8,3.07,2.821691176
1973.03,112.4,3.17,2.820284698
1993.04,443.08,12.4933,2.819648822
1993.02,441.7,12.4467,2.817908082
1961.12,71.74,2.02,2.815723446
1972.09,109.4,3.08,2.81535649
1961.11,71.08,2,2.813731007
1993.05,445.25,12.5067,2.808916339
1994.1,463.81,13.0133,2.805739419
1993.07,447.29,12.52,2.799078897
1993.06,448.06,12.52,2.794268625
1994.08,464.24,12.9,2.778735137
1993.03,450.16,12.48,2.77234761
1972.08,111,3.07667,2.771774775
1973.02,114.2,3.16333,2.769991243
1994.09,466.96,12.93,2.768973788
1987.07,310.1,8.56667,2.76255079
1993.08,454.13,12.52,2.756919825
1994.03,463.81,12.71,2.740346262
1995.02,481.92,13.18,2.734893758
1993.09,459.24,12.52,2.726243359
1987.09,318.7,8.66,2.717288987
1972.11,115.1,3.12667,2.716481321
1993.11,462.89,12.56,2.71338763
1993.1,463.9,12.54,2.703168786
1993.12,465.95,12.58,2.6998605
1994.02,471.58,12.6667,2.686012978
1972.12,117.5,3.15,2.680851064
1995.03,493.15,13.18,2.672614823
1994.01,472.99,12.6233,2.668830208
1973.01,118.4,3.15667,2.666106419
1987.08,329.4,8.61333,2.614854281
1995.04,507.91,13.2433,2.607410762
1995.05,523.81,13.3067,2.540367691
1995.06,539.35,13.37,2.478909799
1995.08,559.11,13.51,2.416340255
1995.07,557.37,13.44,2.411324614
1995.09,578.77,13.58,2.346355202
1995.1,582.92,13.65,2.341659233
1995.11,595.53,13.72,2.303830202
1996.01,614.42,13.8933,2.26120569
1995.12,614.57,13.79,2.24384529
1996.07,644.07,14.4,2.235781825
1996.08,662.68,14.53,2.192611819
1996.04,647.17,14.1567,2.187477788
1996.03,647.07,14.1,2.179053271
1996.09,674.88,14.66,2.172238028
1996.02,649.54,13.9967,2.154863442
1996.05,661.23,14.2133,2.149524371
1996.06,668.5,14.27,2.134629768
1996.1,701.46,14.74,2.101331509
1996.11,735.67,14.82,2.014490193
1996.12,743.25,14.9,2.004709048
1997.04,763.93,15.0933,1.975743851
1997.01,766.22,14.9533,1.951567435
2003.02,837.03,16.17,1.9318304
2003.03,846.63,16.22,1.915831001
1997.03,792.16,15.06,1.901131085
1997.02,798.39,15.0067,1.879620236
2002.1,854.63,15.883333,1.858504031
2003.04,890.03,16.203333,1.820537847
2002.09,867.81,15.79,1.819522707
1997.05,833.09,15.1267,1.815734194
2003.01,895.84,16.12,1.799428469
2002.12,899.18,16.07,1.787183879
2002.07,903.59,15.95,1.765181111
2002.11,909.93,15.976667,1.755812755
2002.08,912.55,15.87,1.73908279
1997.06,876.29,15.16,1.730020883
2003.05,935.96,16.186667,1.729418672
2004.05,1102.78,18.406667,1.669115055
2003.08,989.53,16.45,1.662405384
1997.08,927.24,15.2733,1.647178724
1997.11,938.92,15.4433,1.644794019
1997.07,925.29,15.2167,1.644533065
2003.07,992.54,16.31,1.64325871
2004.06,1132.76,18.6,1.642007133
2003.06,988,16.17,1.636639676
1997.09,937.02,15.33,1.636037651
2003.11,1049.9,17.123333,1.630948948
2003.09,1019.44,16.59,1.627364043
2003.1,1038.73,16.856667,1.622815072
1997.1,951.16,15.3867,1.617677362
1998.01,963.36,15.55,1.614142169
1997.12,962.37,15.5,1.610607147
2003.12,1080.64,17.39,1.609231566
2004.04,1133.36,18.213333,1.607020982
2004.03,1123.98,18.02,1.603231374
1998.09,1020.64,16.15,1.582340492
2002.06,1014.02,16.03,1.58083667
1998.1,1032.47,16.1667,1.565827579
2004.02,1143.36,17.81,1.557689617
2004.01,1132.52,17.6,1.554056441
1998.02,1023.74,15.6,1.523824409
2001.09,1044.64,15.74,1.506739164
1998.08,1074.62,16.0833,1.496649979
2002.05,1079.25,15.93,1.476025017
2001.1,1076.59,15.74,1.462023612
1998.03,1076.83,15.65,1.453339896
1998.06,1108.39,15.95,1.43902417
1998.05,1108.42,15.85,1.429963371
2002.02,1100.67,15.733333,1.429432346
2002.04,1111.93,15.83,1.423650769
1998.04,1112.2,15.75,1.41611221
1998.11,1144.43,16.1833,1.414092605
2001.11,1129.68,15.74,1.393314921
1998.07,1156.58,16.0167,1.384832869
2002.01,1140.21,15.736667,1.380155147
2001.12,1144.93,15.74,1.374756535
2002.03,1153.79,15.73,1.363333016
1998.12,1190.05,16.2,1.361287341
2001.03,1185.85,15.97,1.346713328
2001.04,1189.84,15.876667,1.334353106
2001.08,1178.5,15.723333,1.334181841
1999.02,1246.58,16.366667,1.312925524
2001.07,1204.45,15.706667,1.304053053
1999.01,1248.77,16.283333,1.303949727
1999.03,1281.66,16.45,1.283491722
1999.1,1300.01,16.466667,1.266656949
2001.06,1238.71,15.69,1.266640295
1999.09,1318.17,16.46,1.24870085
2001.05,1270.37,15.783333,1.242420161
1999.08,1327.49,16.376667,1.233656525
2001.02,1305.75,16.07,1.23071032
1999.04,1334.76,16.37,1.226437712
1999.06,1322.55,16.21,1.225662546
1999.05,1332.07,16.29,1.222908706
2000.12,1330.93,16.27,1.222453472
2001.01,1335.63,16.17,1.21066463
2000.02,1388.87,16.666667,1.200016344
1999.11,1391,16.473333,1.184279871
2000.11,1378.04,16.293333,1.182355592
1999.07,1380.99,16.293333,1.179829905
2000.05,1418.48,16.72,1.178726524
2000.1,1390.14,16.316667,1.173742717
2000.01,1425.59,16.573333,1.162559572
2000.03,1442.21,16.76,1.16210538
1999.12,1428.68,16.48,1.153512333
2000.04,1461.36,16.74,1.145508294
2000.06,1461.96,16.7,1.142302115
2000.07,1473,16.58,1.125594026
2000.09,1468.05,16.34,1.113041109
2000.08,1485.46,16.46,1.108074267

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Clive, Re: LT history of Dividends vs Stock Prices......

The relative "smoothness" of the Dividend line attracted my attention as a possible better indicator than P/E or "Earnings Yield" in the first place and your graphs show this nicely. While recessions can hurt quarterly earnings, as you mentioned, companies are somewhat reluctant to cut dividends in the short term.

A flattening of the dividends is more likely in many recessions than a wide spread reduction.

Tax law changed in more recent years in the U.S. to give some more favorable treatment to dividend income from corporations. While yield on corporate debt is still taxable at full "personal income" rates, corporate dividends are currently taxed at about 1/2 the personal tax rate. This is because the corporation pays tax on its earnings before distribution of dividends. (one would think that would be enough taxation, but I digress) So, we citizens get a break now on corporate dividend income.

That probably won't last with the current administration.

However, in the mean time, we're now seeing more companies start to pay a dividend that hadn't been before. You are right, in Total Return for the investor, it probably doesn't matter. It only matters when there's double taxation involved.

Best regards, Tom

[ls7550]

Hi Tom.

Amazing how similar the UK and USA graphics compare

I don't think that correlation is going to break down any time soon.





The biggest more recent difference is the dividends. Your dividend taxation has become more biased towards retention of earnings rather than distribution. Ours is more biased on the distribution side. On a price only basis you therefore tend to see the Dow/SP500 pulling ahead of the FT100. On a totals return however I don't think there's much between the two.

Best regards.
Clive.

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Clive, Amazing how similar the UK and USA graphics compare.

TV

[ls7550]

FT100 yield 5.17% = 44% cash reserve indicated under New iBox Ladder

[ls7550]

Following on from a short rate minus dividend yield relative valuation measure that Tom presented and discussed the other day http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36950940 I've extended the iBox above to include a UK version of that measure.

At the same time I've updated the iBox to present a dividend yield based Ladder rather than the FT100 price Ladder used previously. The Dividend Yield ladder is more universal as for instance in the US where yields are typically lower (due to taxation) that same Ladder might be adapted by perhaps subtracting 2 from each of the yield levels (shifting the yield ladder downwards). This new Ladder raises the current indicated cash reserves compared to that of the previous method, but does so in a manner that reasonably aligns with the current vWave indicated cash reserve.

The Relative Valuation this week shows that the down-run that started in November 2008 has taken a breather. As a result the 200 day moving average is starting to catch the current price level - which arises out of the moving average effect where older higher values drop out of the set and are replaced with lower values.

Having the current price encounter or cross the 200 day moving average is taken by some to be a potential turning point. In other cases another down-leg run can resume after what technical analayst's call "consolidation". Generally it just means that after a period of relatively low volatility (sideways price movement) another sharp rise or fall is potentially likely (increase in volatility) as lots of trades 'read into' a particular pattern.

Over the short term the change in indicated cash reserve from 20% under the previous method to the 44% as indicated by this new Ladder will prove to either have been a good or bad choice, depending on which way the next price jump occurs. In consideration of vWave also showing rising cash reserves it seems timing that switch to now is a reasonable action to take.

Clive.

[ls7550]

FT100 3968, 19.2% cash reserve indicated

[ls7550]

FT100 3925, 19.2% cash reserve indicated

[ls7550]

FT100 3955, 20.2% cash reserve indicated

[ls7550]

FT100 3900, 19.2% cash reserve indicated

[ls7550]

FT100 3805, 17.17% cash reserve indicated

[ls7550]

FT100 3712, 16.16% cash reserve indicated

BoE down to 0.5%

[ls7550]

FT100 3512, 12% cash reserve indicated

Presently FT100 dividend yield = 5.95%, Cover 2.4, PE 7.02

BoE = 1%

[ls7550]

Hi Tom

I ended up using the Value Line "Median Estimated Dividend Yield of all dividend paying stocks under review." I then subtracted it from the prevailing 13 Week Treasury rate for each week.

http://www.indexarb.com/dividendAnalysis.html

"The fair value premium equals the interest earned on the spot index minus dividends earned by the stocks that comprise the index. The relevant time period is from the current date until the future's expiration."

Agrees with the short rate - dividends indicating a discount (or premium) to fair value.

Best regards.

Clive.

[ls7550]

RE: RV graph changes

As there is now sufficient historical data available within the database I've adjusted the iBox Relative Valuation graph to be self steering. The top and bottom (white) lines are henceforth now determined from the historical data contained within the database and are each set to around the top and bottom 10% across all individual historical values.

[ls7550]

RE: Dividend Yield based relative price measure

Over the last couple of days I've taken the standard deviation based yield measures quite a bit further.

Pretty heavy going to describe here, but clearly there is a bias towards larger downside price moves (high yields) than normal form would suggest. There are a few possible reasons for this, one of which is as a consequence of how a 50% decline requires a 100% subsequent gain to get back to break-even.

Adjusting for that down 50 up 100 type effect indicates a much more normal distribution. Which in turn means that I can measure how far adrift from normal distributions things are at any one time.

For example preliminary observations are that we are overdue for at least one year of a 1% higher yield than that of the present yield level (which perhaps suggests that lower lows have yet to occur), but not particularly excessively lower price levels.

Of course non-normal deviations can occur and prolong over extended periods of time, however my next intent is to scan across a range of such potentials and perhaps use the overall average as an indicator.

If this works out then potentially this could both indicate the more likely price direction and durations at or around a particular price level in order to rebalance or remain within normal form distributions. Deviations from that might further indicate just how far the elastic band effect has been stretched (or otherwise).

It could also serve to identify relatively low and high price levels and be used as a forward investment return estimator (form of VLAP type measure).

Something to occupy myself with during these cool, dark (buy getting lighter) evenings.

[ls7550]

Hi Tom

For my yearly based (1946 to 2008) values :-

Average 2.61
Min -2.49
Max 8.9
Stdev 2.549

1.28 stdev (e.g. from table http://www.statsoft.com/textbook/sttable.html = 80% of the distribution) = 2.549 * 1.28 = 3.262

Average -1.2 stdev = -0.651
Average +1.2 stdev = 5.8751

Current -5.3

So my average of 2.61 is a bit higher than your 1.88 average.

Similarly my 80% boundaries (1.28 stdev) shows top 10% of around 5.87% vs your 3.8 and my lower 10% of -0.65 vs your -0.85

Whilst different the two seem reasonably close generally. And the current -5.3 (your -3.17) certainly is very deeply into the bottom 10%. At over 3 standard deviations down from the average it's in excess of 99.7%

A Black Swan (6 sigma) event would require a 12.6% I-MD value.

Best. Clive.

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Clive, Re: average of Interest Rate minus Median Dividend....

I checked on the data I have and since the beginning of 1995, the average of the I-MD = +1.88. It's currently showing -3.17.

The top 10% of the data starts at +3.8 and the bottom 10% is below -0.85. So, at this point the minus 3.17 reading is quite deep into the bottom 10% of the database. In 2000 we had a long string of >3.8 indicating severe bearishness but we did not get to the 90th Percentile since then. Before that there was a period of bearishness in April of 1998.

No bullish signals (bottom 10th percentile) were seen until November of 2002 but the bullishness stayed until the end of October of 2003. Bullishness returned once again at the end of September of 2008 as a consistent signal and it has remained so consistently ever since.

Interesting stuff.

Best regards, Tom

[ls7550]

If you mentally update to the present date the dividend yield graph I posted earlier to reflect the more recent 5.25% yield (7.8 PE), then on the basis that we entered a Bear in 2000 we might be at or near the 'fair' Bear price level.



In simple terms Governments have or are taking bad debts off banks hands - without that action new comer banks could come in (debt free) and wipe the floor with the older banks that carried heavy debt liabilities.

Gov's borrow to cover the bad debts and will likely finance those borrowings via a combination of inflation (printing more money) and higher taxation.

So as companies make profits, instead of stock prices rising more likely interest rates will be raised, which lowers the price investors are prepared to pay for stocks - keeping average stock prices somewhat level. Bond yields will rise (bond prices decline).

Over time there will be over and under cooked periods, possibly with average stock yields hitting highs of 8% and/or bond coupons hitting 10%+, so likely they'll be some sizeable AIM buying (and selling) opportunities along the way.

Whilst the UK's PE of 7.8 currently reflects price declines, the US SP 500 PE (29) has risen in reflection of earnings declining faster than stock prices. This is perhaps suggestive that the US is in a better condition than the UK and that US expectations are more towards earnings declines being a temporary down blip whilst UK expectations are that earnings declines are down for a more extended period of time (UKP declining more than the USD).

The US has typically grown capital more and paid less dividends than the UK. That looks set to continue in the forward direction. Obama is a bit of a Tony Blair reflection and whilst we've had the bulk of politically leftward type social spend and are now starting to head back to the political right, the US is more geared towards a leftward shift.

The relatively lower UKP however will help towards a faster recovery for the UK than might otherwise have been the case.

From a UK investors perspective perhaps consider adding to international USD based holdings as a currency play.

A combination of ISF.L (FT100), IUKD.L (FT350 high yield) presently provides around a 6% income - with perhaps flat capital growth (but some AIM price volatility capture benefits), add DOW to that and you'll have around 5% total income (assuming three equal parts) and some growth/currency diversification added in. Individually AIM'ing the UK side to 50/50 stock cash settings should cover you sufficiently for the mid term. From a longer term perspective the additional buys that would appear likely should cost average you in in a manner that will serve you well over the longer term.

For existing AIM's that are light in cash, well we just bought in at relatively higher prices and should continue on as-is.

[ls7550]

Hi Tom

If anything, the low levels around the earlier part of



maybe a reflection of "we've had the good times and run up big debts - now it's low benefits for a while until we repay those debts".

The earlier part of that chart had incomes from cash and stock both at around 5%.

Here's a historical AIM reference for such a sideways ranging type period which show capital benefits (losses) only. Add on 4 or 5% income and total benefits are 3-4% for B&H versus perhaps 6 or 7% for AIM'ers.



and a table from crestmont research



which I transformed a couple of years or so again for my personal reference into



and a couple of other references which both show a sideways/bear having started in around 2000





I hope you're right with the VL based predictions Tom. Personally I'm less confident and trying to be a good scout by being prepared for alternative scenario's (geared towards a period of sideways trading action with low capital gains, mainly income only under buy and hold conditions but likely improved upon under AIM via some stock price volatility capture benefits).

President Obama, PM Brown et al could be playing a counter to that of King Canute, trying to keep the high surf waves rolling and party going by throwing $Trillions when the tide is rolling out.

One good element is that if a Bear did start in 2000 and my predictions of a end date of 2014/15 in the 4th image above turn out to be correct, then for many from the current date the Bear will seem a lot shorter than might otherwise have been the case.

[ls7550]

As might reasonably be expected, when you don't mess with the taxation of dividends, then over the longer term you typically see a more consistent correlation between stock prices and dividend values (this chart uses dividend yield * index = dividend value).



On the basis that dividend values rise in proportion to stock prices, but with dividend values tending to be somewhat smoothed with companies being under pressure to maintain/grow dividends (borrowing during the bad times to maintain dividends and then repaying those debts during better times), then dividend yield becomes a good proxy for relative stock price.

[ls7550]

Hi Tom

I've run a similar test but using yearly yield values and subtracted the dividend yield from Gross Building Society rates (cash-deposit)



Can't see much particularly noteworthy leaping out from that.

It appears the UK has been more generously paid for its common stock investment risk than has the U.S. over much of time.

On a total returns basis the two markets tend to compare reasonably well. The Dow for example gains more in capital than the FT100, but the FT100 generally pays a higher dividend yield. I've put that down to the US's choice to unfavourably tax dividends in the more recent past resulting in a greater proportion of retained earnings.

Best regards.

Clive.

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Clive, I've been fiddling with this for a few days and decided a rational view of dividend yield was to compare it to the current short term interest rate (I used the 13 week Treasury rate). My thought was that dividend yield would need to be a compelling argument to assume risk against an essentially "risk free" investment in a money market fund that was based in short term government paper.

As we know, people invest in stocks not just for the dividend but for the total return they might achieve from both the yield and the price appreciation over time. Even so, it seemed an interesting idea to measure the two together. What was apparent was the short term interest rate has been higher than the yield most of the time. So, people were truly "banking" on price appreciation if they were investing in stocks.

I ended up using the Value Line "Median Estimated Dividend Yield of all dividend paying stocks under review." I then subtracted it from the prevailing 13 Week Treasury rate for each week. I then graphed the results against the S&P 500. I used the period of 1998 through the current date.



When interest rates are very low compared to median stock dividends we see the chart go "negative" - a very bullish sign. Low yield with high interest rates would be a compelling argument to be holding short term treasuries in place of common stocks.

Unfortunately I don't have data going back a lot further. This is a reasonable sample, however.

I note that the peak interest rate on your graph for around 1994 is the same peak seen in the U.S. In December of 1994 the median Value Line yield was at 7.8%. Today it is sitting at 3.5% and back in 2007 it was regularly only 1.6%. It appears the UK has been more generously paid for its common stock investment risk than has the U.S. over much of time.

Best regards, Tom

[ls7550]

Hi Tom.

I'd certainly be interested in the VL dividend history.

Would be nice to see if it confirms my own UK longer term historical yield observations

The first chart shows year end UK dividend yield levels from 1869. The chart is formatted downwards as that provides a better indicator of how yields fluctuate with stock prices over time. Low yields = high prices, high yields = low prices.

The second chart shows periods where the yield was at or above the long term average which is considered as a buy opportunity.

The third chart shows the intervals between above average based buy opportunities. As this graph is based on year-end dividend yield values alone potentially more buy opportunities could have been identified had the range of year high/low yield levels been used instead (currently I don't have such data available).



Of particular note is how generally buy opportunities often cluster (remain available for a period of time). I've pre-empted 2009 being a above average yield year in view of current yields already breaching that yield level.

Generally buying at or around the 4.85% long term average yield will encounter a 6.4% stock price capital appreciation benefit coupled with that 4.85% yield (combined benefit of 11.25%)

Where stock is bought at high yield time-points and sold at low yield time-points then generally there are tail-wind beneficial effects that uplift both the capital growth and dividend income.

Where stock is bought at low yield time-points and sold at high yield time-points then generally there are swim-against-the-tide type effects that drag down both capital growth and dividend income.

Whilst average yield to average yield based investment time periods have average total returns (capital growth + dividend income) of around 11.25% p.a. average, high to low yield buy/sell time point timing can generate total investment returns of 15% to 20% p.a., whilst low to high yield buy/sell time point timing can drag down total investment returns to 3% to 6% p.a. levels.

Given the second chart, my guess is that the present buy opportunities do not need to be hastly taken as further subsequent possibly even better opportunities may arise. Which is perhaps indicative that we are firmly within a sideways trading range perhaps for the next 3 to 5 years. That however somewhat conflicts with the VL charts and details you posted on both the AIM-Users board and the SignalPoint blog/website.

Best regards.

Clive.

[ls7550]

Hi Tom.

How secure is your backup arrangement against protection from a younger member of the family ?!!!

Main HD trashed, so he used the SPARE PC's HD as a replacement (the one I kept backups on). He installed op system, which involved reformatting etc.

I came home and - Ahhhhh!!! - Oh well, no problem, I'll just restore from the DVD that I also keep (less frequent) off-site backups on - only to find it COULDN'T BE READ.

Fortunately I did have some older backups that helped with the restoration, but they were pretty old. The rest has been a hard slog to get back to somewhere close to the setup and data record that I previously had.

Best regards.

Clive.

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Clive, Re: Peaks and Troughs.........................

Maybe we can coin a new phrase relative to Mountain Goats and Pigs!
We could include some catch phrase like it's "Baaaaaad" to be buying
with the Mountain Goats.


Unfortunately, this is exactly what we're seeing happen in the real
world with each cycle. The herds of goats charge the mountain to
eat where the grass is the most sparse. Then when disappointed, they
return to fertilize the valleys.

I have many years of Dividend history for hte Value Line 1700 group.
I'll package it up in spreadsheet form and email it to you along
with the VL estimated P/E and a market index or so. It tells
exactly the same story you describe. Yields high, relative
prices low. Yields low, relative prices high.

We've been wallowing here in the troughs for some time now. Earnings
reports (for companies smart enough to actually have earnings) are
coming in at reasonable levels. However, if a company missed
"guidance"
by even one penny out of twenty, the stock is crucified. Strange
mentality. Companies with losses, however, get speculated because
they might return to earning money. Again, strange mentality.

Norman Fosback's tome of investing still provides lots of insight
to investor mentality just in the title: "Stock Market Logic."

Obviously an oxymoron!!!

Best regards, Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Clive, Re: Backups........................

I've used Norton's "Ghost" software for some years now with success. I have a second hard drive installed in the box and "Ghost" the C drive to the second one on a weekly basis. All programs so copied will run, but might need re-registering and any passwords re-inititated. Data is immediately accessible.

Other than my own errors (trying to "Ghost" one last time, a drive that was starting to show failure mode) it's worked quite well and saved hours upon hours of re-installation and file conversion from "backup" format to useable.

There's probably a newer, more efficient way to do this today, but this method has worked well.

Best regards, Tom

[ls7550]

If you measure the long term (80 to 130 years) Dow price levels and annualise the capital gains over all possible periods of 5 years or more then you’ll see an average overall figure of around 6.5% p.a. Add on 3.5% average dividends and total investment returns average out to around a 10% compound rate. Over 20 years that amounts to a 3.52 gain factor when based on capital gains only, or around 6.73 gain factor when dividends are reinvested.

Buying into stocks when yields are relatively low – perhaps 2%, is akin to buying a $100,000 house at 75% premium ($175,000) during a boom period. Similarly buying into stock when yields are 5.5% is akin to buying a $100,000 house at 36% discount ($63,000) during a depression.

If you buy at the peak and sell at the trough then you have a 63 / 175 = 0.36 factor working against you – you’d be swimming against a very strong tide.

Buy and the trough and sell at the peak and you have a 175 / 63 = 2.7 factor working for you - sailing along with a very strong tail wind.

Over a 20 year investment period, an investor who bought and sold at average price levels might anticipate a 10% p.a. compounded average.

An investor who bought at a peak and sold 20 years later at a trough might anticipate a 3.52 * 0.36 = 1.27 capital gain factor, or around 1.2% compounded capital gain p.a. supplemented with a 2% dividend (3.2% p.a. total benefit).

An investor who bought at a trough when yields were perhaps 6% and sold at a peak when yields were 2% might anticipate 3.52 * 2.7 = 9.5 gain factor or around 11.9% p.a. compounded average supplemented with the 5.5% dividend income = 17.4% p.a. total benefit.

With recent FT All Share yields in excess of 5.12% the indications are that relative to the longer term we are much closer to a trough buying opportunity than we have been for a considerable number of years. Investments added now may provide total investment returns in excess of 15%+ p.a. over the long term if later sold in perhaps 20 years time at a peak price level (when yields are around 2%).

Over the longer haul typically dividend values grow in line with gains in stock capital values. So you might buy an Index fund that pays perhaps 5% or more yield and simply forget about the investment. Likely the stocks will grow both their capital value and dividend payouts at a good rate.

The worse you could do at the present time is sell stock, as then you’d be selling at a trough after having bought at a peak. It is likely far better to be adding new funds into the market at the present time instead.

Not to say that stock prices might decline further, but if they do then having bought and forgot you can ignore such paper values and come back in 5 or 10 years time to review where your investment stands at that time, and likely you'll be satisfied with the results.

[ls7550]

With the FT100 touching 3800, 17.17% cash reserve is indicated.

[ls7550]

Taken a while to recover the data and graph, but the RV (IBox) is now up to date.

Always check that your PC backup's actually restore !!!

[Firebird400]

Hi Clive,
I like your web page here. Well done, Ken

[ls7550]

26.26% indicated cash reserve (FT100 4324)

[ls7550]

27% indicated cash reserve (FT100 4367)

Sorry - no RV graph update this week (PC crash rebuild in progress).

[ls7550]

23% indicated cash reserve (FT100 4122)

[ls7550]

23.25% indicated cash reserve (FT100 4152)

[ls7550]

21% indicated cash reserve (FT100 4005)

[lionhead0]

Hi Clive,

Spreadsheet to match this example is ready. Drop me an e-mail as I've lost your e-mail address. Nothing better than a real world example. ;)

Tim

[lionhead0]

Representative Example...

Using the MSCI U.K. index, in a weekly time frame, my estimate of phi cubed works well here for both bull/bear markets. I reckon that about 13-15 ladder rungs would be required and in extraordinary times, say 18 to extend the "bumpers" out for black/white swan events.



Smaller fractals could be captured using smaller time frame charts, but a once a week approach would likely do well. When the trend shifts back up, then the ladder is "rescaled" to accommodate it, thus it is totally dynamic to whatever the consensus is to valuations or supply/demand.

[lionhead0]

Hi Clive, Re "Level Shares"...

OK, I'd like to do my buying/selling around the major levels as the probabilities of hitting those targets are great and giving up captured gains or conversely picking up greater bargains would be the motivation for me personally.

I'm thinking about the calculator/spreadsheet. It's crystallizing in my head with your formula. ;)

BTW, Birinyi & Assoc. has just come out with the S&P 500 trailing P/E, 19.19 & 12 month forward est. of 11.60. I suspect the forward est. will continue to shrink from what I've been reading today. Our Dow Jones media is pitching heavily to retail investors to pick up the slack left by the distribution of institutional investors. Always good to see the media getting desperate! I suspect we'll be seeing single digit P/E's someday.

Best, Tim

[ls7550]

One's personally preference then is to fine tune to those natural levels or just divide the rungs by percentage or fixed steps. I just prefer the former and you may prefer the latter

Another option to the Level Cost style I outlined over on the AIM-USERS board (which is more suited to linear/fixed step) is to use what Don Carlson calls Level Shares which I suspect you'd find to be better under proportional step Laddering.

Assume start stock price is $2.50 and we identify trade price levels of

 
 Price  #  
 Level  Shares 
  
 $10    1000       
 $5     1000 
 $2.5   1000 
 $1.25  1000 
 $0.625 1000 
 

Initially we need to hold 2000 shares (cost $2500) to accommodate the two higher (sell) trade prices levels of $5 and $10.

We also need to accommodate two downside buys of 1000 shares at $1.25 ($1250) and 1000 shares at $0.625 ($625), so total account requires $2500 + $1250 + $625 = $4375 of which $2500 is initially invested in stock (57% stock, 43% cash).

When the stock price has moved downwards to the next lower level you buy 1000 stocks. When the stock price moves up to the next higher level you sell 1000 stocks.

[lionhead0]

Hi Clive,

Thanks for your chart of the FTSE; I'm still looking for the right index symbol for my charting program for that index as I'm thinking more and more into utilizing int'l markets as I believe they will recover quicker than the U.S. when all the deleveraging is finished. I'll look for the U.S. equivalent ETF as a proxy.

I have no problem sharing the calculator/spreadsheet once developed. You've shared your's here and the ladder method and that was my inspiration for the tweak. The chart you've posted is indeed too "busy" and that's why I suggested having ladder rungs at major expansion/retracement levels otherwise too much trading costs begin to reduce returns.

As to the time spent, it takes me very little time to draw up the projections on a chart. Roughly about 5 minutes/tradeable. This is after lots of experience in doing it and having a very good grasp on the ratios that might come up as major levels. That said, anyone can learn it and when mastered it will be a short process.

I'm glad you added the ATR as it's nice to see the volatility in price ranges over the time span you've posted. Bespoke did a great chart on 10 week price change for the S&P 500 from 1929 to the present:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/11/50-day-average-daily-sp-500-change-at-326.html

It really hi-lites the severity of our current economic malaise. I think most folks haven't grasped the scope of the problems. BTW, always use arithmetic scaling when making projection charts. That's a must...

"I opine that stocks price moves are to a large extent random, but equally are bounded with certain limits of mass greed/mass fear. Structuring your Ladder boundaries to historic levels of fear/greed, perhaps as depicted by dividend yield (or some other time independent measure) will help ensure that your ladder remains active across time, rather than encountering periods of prices being outside of the ladders range."

Yes, intraday and daily prices changes are for the most part random driven by news events, earnings reports, etc, but over a longer time frame the trend of the market reveals the collective mind either up, flat, or down until the concensus view changes. That's why in looking at charts, their are patterns that might complete or might not. What's driving the market is order flow from larger groups that either put on or take off positions and their doing so may have no correlation with anything technical or fundamental. It's just the normal random nature of the market in short time periods from the order flow.

The ladder as I envision it, will reflect the historical ranges, but with "bumpers" at the extremes to allow for worst/best case black swan events. Since we know markets overshoot both ways, that has to be built into the modeling. Fortunately, those overshoots also have a math component to them and can be built in to the ladder.

Since the ladder and the expansion/retracement levels are likely targets, not predictors, with the ranges built on natural ratios, they will not change unless human behaviours change and if that happens, then it can be rescaled to the new parameters. One's personally preference then is to fine tune to those natural levels or just divide the rungs by percentage or fixed steps. I just prefer the former and you may prefer the latter. ;)

Best regards, Tim

[ls7550]

Hi Tim

Also, devising a spreadsheet, or simple calculator, that is a template rather than a fixed design so individual levels can be inputted with specific levels of cash as the output. As I've shown on your board, each tradeable moves along to a slightly different "beat."

One could further subdivide the levels, but that would end up with too much trading. The major levels are the ones to be concerned about and moving past them up or down is the way to view it I think.

I'd like to see that spreadsheet/calculator once your done if you don't mind sharing.

I can see the appeal of using manually defined ladder price levels as our minds are pattern recognition based. However I believe that the additional time/effort spent looking and setting manual levels over that of more simple fixed levels does not provide sufficient additional (if any) benefit to warrant that time/effort.

Here's an auto generated chart showing some support/resistance lines for the UK's FT100 1984 to present.



Use a log scaling and you'll get another different set of S/R lines.

Market prices are the collective average of everyone with an interest in either buying or selling. That collective average changes over time. Yes the more people that follow one particular indicator the greater the chance of that indicator being reflective of actuals, but in times such as more recent when uncertainty/potential (greed/fear) predominate then volatility will be high as the collective do not know where to price stocks. Once a more common agreement forms, then volatility will decline.

If you have price appreciation, price volatility capture and downside loss limitation components separated out (B&H, Ladder, MF) then I would suggest that instead it might be better to expend time/effort looking into over/under weighting which style you might predict as the better/worse going forward. Alternatively you might just react to what actually occurs and periodically rebalance the three back to near equal proportions.

Simple time diversified price levels is likely to fair as well as attempts to trade to support/resistance lines at the Ladder level. Periodic rebalancing to equal weightings across the B&H, Ladder, MF styles is likely to fair as well as attempts to predict which style might provide the better return over the short/mid term.

I opine that stocks price moves are to a large extent random, but equally are bounded with certain limits of mass greed/mass fear. Structuring your Ladder boundaries to historic levels of fear/greed, perhaps as depicted by dividend yield (or some other time independent measure) will help ensure that your ladder remains active across time, rather than encountering periods of prices being outside of the ladders range.

Best regards. Clive.