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Global Research-Battle for Oil:
Global Research-Battle for Oil: Redrawing the Map of Africa
Posted on: Mar 17th, 2013 - 8:53 am
http://www.directorstalk.com/global-research-battle-for-oil-redrawing-the-map-of-africa/
Should You Buy Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited?
Posted on: Mar 15th, 2013 - 12:47 pm
Bowleven rumours of a sexy farm-in agreement
Bowleven rumours of a sexy farm-in agreement
Posted on: Mar 13th, 2013 - 11:13 pm
http://www.directorstalk.com/bowleven-rumours-of-a-sexy-farm-in-agreement/
Xcite Energy. £2 a share cash bid.
North Sea oil explorer Xcite Energy. £2 a share cash bid.
Posted on: Mar 13th, 2013 - 11:11 pm
http://www.directorstalk.com/north-sea-oil-explorer-xcite-energy-2-a-share-cash-bid/
The Energy Report – Range Resources Ltd. (RRS:ASX; RRL:AIM).
The Energy Report – Range Resources Ltd. (RRS:ASX; RRL:AIM).
3rd Mar 3:45 pm
- See more at: http://www.directorstalk.com/#sthash.4ZMuoESA.dpuf
VIDEO – Questor Plus share tips:
3
Mar 2013
VIDEO – Questor Plus share tips: prepare for a market dip
By News Teamin News
- See more at: http://www.directorstalk.com/video-questor-plus-share-tips-prepare-for-a-market-dip/#sthash.RXYqJj0w.dpuf
IRAQ/KURDISTAN OIL LAW RESOLVED ?
IRAQ/KURDISTAN – “The dispute with the Kurdistan Alliance, including payments for the oil companies operating in the Kurdistan region, has been resolved and agreed upon.”
23rd Feb
http://www.directorstalk.com/ashti-huarma-minister-of-natural-resources-in-the-kurdistan-region-of-iraq-the-region-will-not-retreat-from-d-pipeline-to-turkey-adding-we-have-a-policy-to-create-a-pipeline-to-export-oil-to/
DNO and Tawke in Kurdistan: How an Iraq oil giant has emerged
23rd Feb
http://www.directorstalk.com/dno-and-tawke-in-kurdistan-how-an-iraq-oil-giant-has-emerged/
A roadmap for a solution to Turkey’s Kurdish problem
23rd Feb
http://www.directorstalk.com/a-roadmap-for-a-solution-to-turkeys-kurdish-problem/
Ashti Huarma, Minister of Natural Resources in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, “The region will not retreat from D pipeline to Turkey,” adding: “We have a policy to create a pipeline to export oil to Turkey,
23rd Feb
http://www.directorstalk.com/ashti-huarma-minister-of-natural-resources-in-the-kurdistan-region-of-iraq-the-region-will-not-retreat-from-d-pipeline-to-turkey-adding-we-have-a-policy-to-create-a-pipeline-to-export-oil-to/
Red Emperor-BREAKING NEWS
19
Feb 2013
Red Emperor – Somalian Minister of Natural Resources Abdirizak Omar Mohamed has just set up his new oil team
http://www.directorstalk.com/red-emperor-somalian-minister-of-natural-resources-abdirizak-omar-mohamed-has-just-set-up-his-new-oil-team/
19
Feb 2013
Red Emperor – Somalian Minister of Natural Resources Abdirizak Omar Mohamed has just set up his new oil team
http://www.directorstalk.com/red-emperor-somalian-minister-of-natural-resources-abdirizak-omar-mohamed-has-just-set-up-his-new-oil-team/
18
Feb 2013
Broker Fox Davies Talks Gulf Keystone Petroleum (BUY, 350p)
http://www.directorstalk.com/broker-fox-davies-talks-gulf-keystone-petroleum-buy-350p/
ExxonMobil report net-profit increase
http://tradingresearchpoint.co.uk/category/stocks/
Gulf Keystone Petroleum – More reserves found at Iraqi Kurdistan oil block
4th Feb
http://www.directorstalk.com/?s=GULF+KEYSTONE
VIDEO TALK
VSA Capital still likes Africa & Kurdistan for oil stocks
http://www.directorstalk.com/category/video-talk/
Hi, I'm new to the site and just wanted to introduce myself. I'm Penny and would appreciate any words of advice. Thanks!
Thanks Clive,
I have been looking at Mebane Faber for a short while. TAA for the masses however is a new one.
My aim is to build wealth with low drawdowns MF seems to be a good way of doing this.
Bill
Sorry 1889, I hardly ever visit this board any more, so very late in responding.
No just check the 10 month moving average once each month
http://www.taa4themasses.com/
http://www.mebanefaber.com/timing-model/
are useful links.
Ladder is a form of log stochastic measure, so the easiest way its just to calculate
1 - ( ( log(current) - log(bottom) ) / ( log(top) - log(bottom) )
i.e. if I opt to track the Dow and decide a top price of 15000 at which I'd be all-out and a bottom price of 6000 when I'd be all-in, and the current price is 10,000 then
( log(10000) - log(6000) ) / ( log(15000) - log(6000) )
= 0.56 (56%)
If later the Dow moved to 12000 then = 0.76 (76%)
These figures indicate cash reserve amounts, so if the fund size was $100,000 you go from 56% cash reserve ($56K) to 76% cash reserve ($76K) as the Dow moved from 10,000 to 12,000 i.e. you'd have sold $20K of stock across that move.
You can also use the calculation against yields rather than price, but you have to invert the result i.e. deduct the results from 1.0 i.e. perhaps you might be tracking Bond yields and want to add as the yields rose, reduce as the yields declined.
I'm not using Ladder with Mebane's approach, but I am with respect to weighting between long dated and short dated treasuries and with yields so low that's indicating all in ST's at the present time.
Ladder's nothing more than a method to help you weight investments, but can throw off some nice rebalance gains during rapidly zigzagging conditions. It scales you in as prices decline and out as prices rise (form of buy low, sell high).
Best. Clive.
Andrew Knight & Henderson Morley – A Disgraceful tale.
sharecrazy.com/beta/daily/4224/andrew-knight-henderson-morley-a-disgraceful-tale
Ladders
Clive,
I have been following your posts on this and other boards about ladders. Is there a chance you can post a link where I can download an example?
Do you use ladders in conjunction with your PP Mebane Fabers portfolio or do yoy only rebalance and check the 10 month moving average daily?
Thanks in advance.
Bill
Hi lostcowboy
I was reading the 4th Edition of Brian Millard's Stocks and shares. In chapter 9 page 132-146.
He discusses and compares 3 installment methods. Constant purchase of number of shares, Dollar cost averaging and advanced dollar cost averaging. something similar to twinvest.Uses cost per share rather than twinvest number. the latter did the best.
Is there a indicator such as beta that indicates what it is best for dca, twinvest or synchrovest program.
Is there anyone synchrovesting? I just started an experimental program
Best wishes
infooverload
As I am a beginner I am going to digest the information.
Thank you for answering and explaining your answer.
The bottom line from my experience infooverload is that within limits and subject to amounts traded it doesn't matter where you level trade points.
The limits are that if set to narrow then trading costs eat into the rewards from trading. Set too wide and the levels are never reached.
If you trade at say 1% moves you will have lots of trades, but trade very small amounts, as such trading costs might amount to more than the actual gains achieved.
If you trade at say 50% moves then you'll trade larger amounts and make larger gains per cycle, trading costs will be relatively small to the gains achieved, but you'll trade relatively infrequently.
There is a temptation to trade at 1 standard deviation amounts because graphs of the Bollinger bands (e.g. +/- 1 stdev) look like they are good at predicting, but in practice they are no different to trading at other deviations.
There are optimal bands that if traded produce the best results, however predicting those bands beforehand is as difficult as predicting future stock prices.
As such an investor who trades at say fixed 30% bands will likely compare to another investor who attempts to predict turning points etc. Accordingly trading the simplest approach is sufficient.
It's generally better to focus upon diversification and/or price appreciation potential rather than the technicalities of when to trade.
Many investments achieve comparable longer term rewards, of which bonds tend to be the most stable. Others such as commodities, stocks, REIT's etc. tend to track that reference over the longer term, but periodically encounter bubbles and subsequent bubble bursts. What most investors do however is invest after the bubble has inflated which means that they overpay for the stock. After the bubble bursts the declines can result in investment returns that underperform even cash, potentially over extended periods of time.
Much less frequently are assets truly cheap, but may be perceived as being so following a bubble burst event (when generally the asset has declined from over-priced to more fairly priced).
The best holdings in my opinion are a diverse range of stocks (domestic and foreign), bonds, gold, REIT, commodities and cash. When you hold such a collection in around equal capital value amounts and rebalance periodically whenever any one bubbles then you take profit out of the over-priced and distribute the proceeds across multiple others (in effect lock in the gain).
Such diversity also helps ensure that if you overpay for any one initially, then the subsequent decline in that one of many assets as its bubble bursts is much less than had that asset been held exclusively.
Rebalancing periodically is a must. If you hold through thick and thin then the profit take opportunities are missed. A reasonable choice of rebalance method is a mechanical one as that is more likely to be followed than if left to human emotion based trading.
Increasingly I have personally simplified my investment style having tried ever possible trading and/or prediction method I could think of. My preference now is to achieve market returns with low drawdowns and as such I'm attracted to Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio ( http://crawlingroad.com/blog/ ) and Mebane Faber's Quantitative Asset Allocation methods ( http://www.mebanefaber.com/timing-model/ )
Rather than using one or the other alone, again I've looked to diversify and use a intermixed form of 50/50 blend of both PP and Mebane's.
But I've opted to use a bond ladder (spanning 6 years/steps) ( http://www.financialwebring.org/gummystuff/bonds-4.htm ) as an alternative to 30 year (PP) or 10 year (Mebane's) choice of Bond holdings as I believe bonds to be in a relative bubble (JMHO).
I've therefore moved away from AIM like band trading to monthly reviews 40% bands (i.e. 12.5% initial allocations and rebalance whenever any one component exceeds or declines +/- 5% above/below that (7.5% and 17.5% rebalance trigger points).
The Mebane method does additionally trade according to current price relative to its 10 month moving average (similar to 200 day moving average), by reviewing each month and being in when the current is above the moving average or otherwise out for that month if below. For my part I only trade the Foreign (BRIC), Commodities (DBC) and REIT (IPRP) in this manner.
If the next 30 years have as low drawdowns as that for the Mebane and PP figures previously shown that will likely see me out whilst providing investment comfort along the way.
Best. Clive.
PS another link you might be interested in is a UK PP http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/investing-strategy/2009/06/29/feeling-cautious-load-up-on-gold.aspx
Thank you lostcowboy plus others for your information.
macro-aim uses cross over of 2 averages to have a trade . This cross over initiates aim advisement on buy and sell. This buy/sell event is just one event coinciding with a cross over,or is it as many as aim will allow as long as there is no further cross over.Of course , it will be a series of buys or a series of sells not both till a new cross over occurs.
Hi infooverload, I think that one of the averages is used as the mean/average and the other average is used as a substitute for the raw price.
About using the standard deviation, you may want to check out some of the early postings of Myst he came up with the idea of using a deviation from the mean in a AIM like manner.
Check out his forum, http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=1074
Thank you for your answer. I am a beginner so please bear with me.
I base this idea on a book called channel and cycles by B. J. Millard.
Prices fluctuate around a mean. They imitate a bell shaped curve. When prices are above or below a mean/moving average of +/- 1 standard deviation they exclude 68%of the price events near the mean on either side. 32% of the time they are greater than +/-
i Standard deviation. .32 x 12 months=3.84 or about 4 . Would not this be a good way to treat prices as a probability of where they are from the mean. To use their position in relation to the mean as a price trigger. Rather than a cross over of two averages?
Are the any Macro-Aim spreadsheets I could use or download? Are there any posts or written articles on it?
70.86% cash reserve indicated
Current Price :
UK FT100 5266.7
I am surprised British investors aren't supporting this resource your board. As an investor I appreciate your efforts in maintaining the board and posting amount of percentage of cash to have on hand.
I read a book a while ago Brian Millard. His background in spectroscopy led him, as a chemist, to filtering stock prices for cyclic behavior. Which aim investors are really seeking a orderly progression from high to low and back again. He drew channels around the stocks. Those channels predicted with some high probability when stocks were in buying and selling ranges and ready for reversals. Wouldn't a Standard deviation of deviation of stock prices from an average above a certain probability indicate a turn , a trading opportunity. Perhaps choosing one standard deviation above or below as an example would include 68% of a stocks behavior, or maybe 2 standard deviations which might be too high a criteria or some compromise amount give the aim investor a better chance of success than some arbitrary safe value.In other words choose a probability model of prices.
There is a MACRO-AIM version of AIM InfoOverload - the work of Don Carlson many moons ago. MACRO stands for Moving Average Crossover.
With MACRO-AIM you only trade when the 200day EMA (actually I think its more correctly something like 207 day EMA) is crossed. That way you might combine (postpone) several trades into a single larger and later trade (potentially buying and selling more at the troughs and peaks rather than cost averaging smaller trades during the run-up to those peaks and troughs).
Best. Clive.
Hi InfoOverload
Of more recent I've started overlaying Mebane Faber's 10 month moving average indicator on top of AIM. So at each months review if the current price is above the 10m simple moving average then the stock is held as-is and AIM'd as normal. If however the current price is below the 10m sma then I sell the stock and leave AIM as-is until a later monthly review has the current price greater than the 10m sma. I'll then repurchase the stock again together with any updates (typically buys) that AIM additional indicates.
I wrote to Mebane and discussed how the 10 month moving average (comparable to 200 day moving average) is very similar to the stop-loss style that I've used for over a decade. Generally - on average - prices sit 7% either side of the moving average. Which also is close to 1 standard deviation distance.
In general I would suspect therefore that trading at 1 standard deviations would generally produce 14% hold zone ranges.
Your 4 trades a year figure implies a 6% step (12% hold zone range). If you're trading 10% of stock value and with stock value around half the total value (assuming 50/50 stock/cash) then you'd be making 5% stock value x 12% hold zone range = 0.6% x 2 round trips (4 trades) = 1.2% p.a. on average in volatility capture. That's pretty reasonable IMO.
I have revived my long ago basic proram on aim investing. .I ran some numbers by hand . I believe Mr. lichello's fortuitous circumstance led him to his 50% cash 50% initial investment. His 10,8,5,4,ETC. pattern is near optimal for this allocagtion of resources. In the real world has anyone ever used 1 Standard deviation + - from a mean figure as a trigger point for a trade. This would supply approximatey 4 trades a year if checkups are done once a month.
RE: CARRY TRADES
Gold, Long dated Bonds, Stocks et al are all relatively highly priced.
With near zero UK and US base rates carry trades would appear to be being widely employed, selling the dollar to buy any form of risky assets.
As the dollar declines that adds to the gains of the carry trades.
But when the dollar reverses they'll be lots of selling on all fronts (stocks, bonds, gold) to cover the highly leveraged shorts.
69.3% cash reserve indicated
Current Price :
UK FT100 5107
66.7% cash reserve indicated
Current Prices :
US Dow 9762
UK FT100 5080
UK FTAS 2599
69.5% cash reserve indicated (unchanged)
69.5% cash reserve indicated
67.2% cash reserve indicated (unchanged)
67.2% cash reserve indicated
One aspect of potentially using Permanent Portfolio that troubles me somewhat is that it might be a case of data mining.
Here is one of the most optimal 1972 to 2008 investment blends, comprised of Emerging Markets, Gold and LT Bonds
Perhaps that implies that in the forward time direction that relative out-performer of past might be tomorrows relative under-performer.
LT Bonds have been on a long term mean reversion following excessively low prices in the mid 1974, rising up to present day near 0% current base rate highs and as such may prove to be one of the poorer performers in the forward time as base rates start to rise again.
Gold price was de-fixed in 1971, leading to exceptional performance in the the 1970's.
Gold does serve as a domestic currency risk counter, but that can be easily achieved by holding non-domestic currency based stock investments. It's easier for US investors as when their currency slides the rest of us slide down with it, so in import/export terms (purchasing power) there's little change.
Stocks are an inflation hedge. Yes existing investors suffer as prices crash down to reflect forward time inflation pacing growth and higher yields, however if you've cash to buy stock at the lower price or took steps to protect against downside price slides, then stocks can still serve investors who owned stock prior to the declines.
Gold and LT Bonds seem a bit of a risky play, supposedly riskier stocks might be the safer approach, especially if we're about to enter (or are in) inflationary or sideways ranging market conditions and we're using AIM-like investment methods.
When many see a performance graph such as the first one shown above the reaction can be a temptation to buy into that in expectation of future performance matching the historic performance. More often that turns out to be a buy-high event. Better perhaps to look for relative under-performers, and buy into those instead. Accordingly I'm seriously thinking about ditching the concept of using PP as part of my defensive ('cash') set.
An alternative to Permanent Portfolio might be to use a 50/50 Stock/Bond blend that's 50/50 blended with PP. Overall that results in 37.5% each of stock and LT Bonds, and 12.5% in each of cash and gold.
Run stocks, bonds, gold and cash through the optimiser http://www.riskcog.com/portfolio.jsp#5b009ac5f82re and out pops
which is more aligned to a 50/50 S/B blend combined 50/50 with a PP
A principle reason why I use 12 overlapping year long stop-loss positions instead of yearly positions can be seen if you run yearly backtests against the Dow (1929 to 2009) as shown below - the result is too many 'dry' years.
By starting a new stop-loss position, once each month, each with a stop-loss set at 5% and a time-stop set to 12 months and using 1/12th of the 'cash' reserves available at the time is that you don't encounter as many 'dry' years when using monthly positions. You're better time diversified and more likely to have bought into at least one month at or near that years lows.
In concept if dividends = cash = 5% then each such position will at worse end the year with the same amount as at the start of the year as dividends and/or cash interest replenishes the 5% stop loss.
If you assume cash/dividends at a constant 5% rate then the Dow's total annualised rises to 9.7% versus 8.9% for the stop-loss style. Yet over any one runs 12 month start to end date the worse decline is near break-even. So its a form of cash like risk (low downs) with reasonable investment reward that aids in minimising cash-drag.
More recently I've been evaluating extending the defensive part by blending in a Permanent Portfolio element. So far that looks to be a reasonable low-down, better than cash reward type alternative/addition. Presently therefore I intend to build up a PP position over time to around 50/50 levels of average 'cash' reserves (half of cash reserves in PP and half in the stop-loss style).
Stop Loss style yearly results
0.950 1929
0.950 1930
0.950 1931
0.950 1932
0.950 1933
0.950 1934
0.950 1935
1.238 1936
0.950 1937
0.950 1938
0.950 1939
0.950 1940
0.950 1941
0.950 1942
1.133 1943
1.121 1944
1.265 1945
0.950 1946
0.950 1947
0.950 1948
0.950 1949
1.176 1950
1.144 1951
0.950 1952
0.950 1953
1.440 1954
1.208 1955
0.950 1956
0.950 1957
1.340 1958
1.164 1959
0.950 1960
1.187 1961
0.950 1962
1.170 1963
1.146 1964
1.109 1965
0.950 1966
1.152 1967
0.950 1968
0.950 1969
0.950 1970
0.950 1971
1.149 1972
0.950 1973
0.950 1974
1.377 1975
1.179 1976
0.950 1977
0.950 1978
1.042 1979
0.950 1980
0.950 1981
0.950 1982
1.203 1983
0.950 1984
1.277 1985
1.227 1986
0.950 1987
0.950 1988
1.270 1989
0.950 1990
0.950 1991
1.042 1992
1.137 1993
0.950 1994
1.335 1995
1.260 1996
1.226 1997
0.950 1998
1.248 1999
0.950 2000
0.950 2001
0.950 2002
0.950 2003
0.950 2004
0.950 2005
1.162 2006
1.064 2007
0.950 2008
0.950 2009
19.886 Stop-Loss Gain Factor
32.440 Index Gain
1.038 SL p.a
1.044 Idx p.a.
67% is leaning on the high risk button just a bit, whatcha think?
From the low cash reserves of 12% indicated back in March 09 (message 135) when the FT100 was at 3500 levels, to current indicated 67% cash against a FT100 of 5100 (nearly 46% up from that March low) - it's saying a bit too much - too quickly.
That is further highlighted by the RV's (as shown in iBox) PE component which at 17.6 (red bars in the chart) currently is a high relative to the 4 years of data shown in the RV graph. It would only take base rates to rise a bit to push the combined PE+BoE above the higher (white line) band into high risk territory (presently at 20.72)
If you consider the stock exposure side to be a martingale play e.g. add as share prices decline, reduce as share prices rise, whilst the 'cash' side is deployed in anti-martingale (let winners run, cut losers quickly, trend is your friend etc.), then the 67% in anti-martingale, 33% in martingale suggests a heavier bias towards continuing to run gains, but cutting losers quickly is more preferable to buying dips/pull-backs at the present time.
As the white lines re-converge again with the bottom value pulling upwards and maybe the top also extending upwards, as would occur during a Bull phase
so the risk profile would adjust to centralise indicated exposure/cash levels.
Another way to view it is the indicated stock exposure of 33% in aggressive (AIM stock part) and the 67% in defensive. If you kept 'cash' as cash then yes 67% is high. If you used for example Permanent Portfolio holdings as the defensive part then cash-drag is minimised. I personally use a stop-loss style for the defensive, within which all prior 12 runs (one started each month) up to March had been stopped out, but the ones running since March are doing well, but will cut out quickly should a turn around occur (I use stops set at 5% below the original purchase price).
To date, of the 7 stop-loss based runs (i.e. monthly positions) started since March 09 : March and June have been stopped out, April's is up 31%, May up 21%, July up 21%, August up 12% and Sept up 5%
Best. Clive.
Hi Clive,
67% is leaning on the high risk button just a bit, whatcha think?
66.9% cash reserve indicated
FT100 (4280) Yield 4.69% = 43.6% cash reserve indicated.
FT100 (4278) Yield 4.75% = 41% cash reserve indicated.
FT100 (4437) Yield 4.61% = 45.8% cash reserve indicated.
FT100 (4383) Yield 4.51% = 46% cash reserve indicated.
FT100 (4416) Yield 4.76% = 42.4% cash reserve indicated.
FT100 (4468) Yield 4.71% = 42.5% cash reserve indicated.
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