Hi Tom.
I'd certainly be interested in the VL dividend history.
Would be nice to see if it confirms my own UK longer term historical yield observations
The first chart shows year end UK dividend yield levels from 1869. The chart is formatted downwards as that provides a better indicator of how yields fluctuate with stock prices over time. Low yields = high prices, high yields = low prices.
The second chart shows periods where the yield was at or above the long term average which is considered as a buy opportunity.
The third chart shows the intervals between above average based buy opportunities. As this graph is based on year-end dividend yield values alone potentially more buy opportunities could have been identified had the range of year high/low yield levels been used instead (currently I don't have such data available).
Of particular note is how generally buy opportunities often cluster (remain available for a period of time). I've pre-empted 2009 being a above average yield year in view of current yields already breaching that yield level.
Generally buying at or around the 4.85% long term average yield will encounter a 6.4% stock price capital appreciation benefit coupled with that 4.85% yield (combined benefit of 11.25%)
Where stock is bought at high yield time-points and sold at low yield time-points then generally there are tail-wind beneficial effects that uplift both the capital growth and dividend income.
Where stock is bought at low yield time-points and sold at high yield time-points then generally there are swim-against-the-tide type effects that drag down both capital growth and dividend income.
Whilst average yield to average yield based investment time periods have average total returns (capital growth + dividend income) of around 11.25% p.a. average, high to low yield buy/sell time point timing can generate total investment returns of 15% to 20% p.a., whilst low to high yield buy/sell time point timing can drag down total investment returns to 3% to 6% p.a. levels.
Given the second chart, my guess is that the present buy opportunities do not need to be hastly taken as further subsequent possibly even better opportunities may arise. Which is perhaps indicative that we are firmly within a sideways trading range perhaps for the next 3 to 5 years. That however somewhat conflicts with the VL charts and details you posted on both the AIM-Users board and the SignalPoint blog/website.
Best regards.
Clive.
I'd certainly be interested in the VL dividend history.
Would be nice to see if it confirms my own UK longer term historical yield observations
The first chart shows year end UK dividend yield levels from 1869. The chart is formatted downwards as that provides a better indicator of how yields fluctuate with stock prices over time. Low yields = high prices, high yields = low prices.
The second chart shows periods where the yield was at or above the long term average which is considered as a buy opportunity.
The third chart shows the intervals between above average based buy opportunities. As this graph is based on year-end dividend yield values alone potentially more buy opportunities could have been identified had the range of year high/low yield levels been used instead (currently I don't have such data available).
Of particular note is how generally buy opportunities often cluster (remain available for a period of time). I've pre-empted 2009 being a above average yield year in view of current yields already breaching that yield level.
Generally buying at or around the 4.85% long term average yield will encounter a 6.4% stock price capital appreciation benefit coupled with that 4.85% yield (combined benefit of 11.25%)
Where stock is bought at high yield time-points and sold at low yield time-points then generally there are tail-wind beneficial effects that uplift both the capital growth and dividend income.
Where stock is bought at low yield time-points and sold at high yield time-points then generally there are swim-against-the-tide type effects that drag down both capital growth and dividend income.
Whilst average yield to average yield based investment time periods have average total returns (capital growth + dividend income) of around 11.25% p.a. average, high to low yield buy/sell time point timing can generate total investment returns of 15% to 20% p.a., whilst low to high yield buy/sell time point timing can drag down total investment returns to 3% to 6% p.a. levels.
Given the second chart, my guess is that the present buy opportunities do not need to be hastly taken as further subsequent possibly even better opportunities may arise. Which is perhaps indicative that we are firmly within a sideways trading range perhaps for the next 3 to 5 years. That however somewhat conflicts with the VL charts and details you posted on both the AIM-Users board and the SignalPoint blog/website.
Best regards.
Clive.
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