Thursday, March 16, 2017 4:48:03 PM
As Scott Pruitt Denies Climate Science, Atmospheric CO2 Rises At A Record Rate
Even as Scott Pruitt denies carbon dioxide’s role in fueling climate change, the NOAA has revealed that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas have been increasing at an “unprecedented” rate.
Wolfgang Rattay/Reuters
“As we twiddle our thumbs, CO2 just keeps going up and up.”
By Dominique Mosbergen
03/15/2017 12:11 pm ET
Environmental Protection Agency [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/topic/epa ] chief Scott Pruitt may not believe [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/scott-pruitt-carbon-dioxide_us_58c16401e4b0d1078ca48714 ] that carbon dioxide is to blame for global warming, but most scientists say [ https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/ ] the evidence is clear. And now new data shows the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased at a record pace [ http://www.climatecentral.org/news/carbon-dioxide-record-rates-21242 ] for the second year in a row.
“As we twiddle our thumbs, CO2 just keeps going up and up [ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-hits-record-levels/ ],” Ralph Keeling, director of the Scripps Institute for Oceanography’s carbon dioxide monitoring program, told Scientific American Tuesday. Climate scientists have long agreed that the carbon dioxide that humans pump into the atmosphere is the primary driver of climate change, he added.
Atmospheric CO2 levels measured at the Mauna Loa Baseline Atmospheric Observatory [ https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/ ] in Hawaii, the world’s marquee site for carbon dioxide monitoring, soared by a record-breaking 3 parts per million in both 2015 and 2016, according to data that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released on Friday.
Carbon dioxide concentrations measured at the facility hit 405.1 parts per million last year, the agency said, adding that similar observations had been recorded at dozens of other sites all over the world.
NOAA
@NOAA
Carbon dioxide (#CO2) levels rose at record pace for 2nd straight year at Mauna Loa Observatory: http://www.noaa.gov/news/carbon-dioxide-levels-rose-at-record-pace-for-2nd-straight-year ;... via @NOAAResearch
12:55 PM - 10 Mar 2017
[ https://twitter.com/NOAA/status/840274911243444225 (with comments)]
Pieter Tans, lead scientist at NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network, said that carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased at least 2 parts per million for the five consecutive years - an “unprecedented” growth rate.
“The rate of CO2 growth over the last decade is 100 to 200 times faster than what the Earth experienced during the transition from the last ice age,” Tans said in a statement. “This is a real shock to the atmosphere [ http://www.noaa.gov/news/carbon-dioxide-levels-rose-at-record-pace-for-2nd-straight-year ].”
Climate Central
@ClimateCentral
Carbon dioxide is rising so fast, it's "a real shock to the atmosphere" (and the planet) http://www.climatecentral.org/news/carbon-dioxide-record-rates-21242
11:04 PM - 14 Mar 2017
[ https://twitter.com/ClimateCentral/status/841862545946378242 (no comments yet)]
In 2013, Mauna Loa Observatory scientists announced that atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide had reached a daily average above 400 parts per million [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/10/atmospheric-co2-concentrations_n_3253757.html ] for the first time in history. CO2 concentrations “haven’t been this high in millions of years,” said [ http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/ ] scientist Erika Podest at the time. “This milestone is a wake-up call.”
Two years later, the world reached another grim benchmark. NOAA said the monthly global average concentration [ http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends ] of CO2 had surpassed 400 parts per million for the first time. A year after that, scientists said global CO2 levels would likely not fall below 400 parts per million - perhaps ever again [ http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends ].
“I think we’re essentially over for good [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/carbon-dioxide-400ppm-permanent_us_57eb7636e4b082aad9b7e9ab ],” Keeling said in May 2016.
Protesters chant during a rally against climate change in San Diego, California, on Feb. 21, 2017.
SANDY HUFFAKER/Getty Images
In the 10,000 years or so before the Industrial Revolution [ http://www.history.com/topics/industrial-revolution ], atmospheric carbon dioxide levels had averaged about 280 parts per million. Since then, however, the concentration of CO2 has skyrocketed, ballooning from about 300 parts per million in 1960 to the current astronomical level.
And the upward trend is showing no signs of slowing. Scientists say 410 parts per million [ http://www.climatecentral.org/news/carbon-dioxide-410-ppm-21223 ] could be reached later this month, a concentration never before witnessed in human history.
“The momentum we’re seeing right now, going upwards, I think is going to easily carry us through 450 parts per million [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/22/carbon-dioxide-climate-change_n_5187844.html ],” Keeling told the The Huffington Post in an earlier interview. “And then I would say even stabilizing before 500 parts per million is probably not going to be very easy.”
Since carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for hundreds, even thousands of years [ https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/jan/16/greenhouse-gases-remain-air ], even a fairly stable rate of carbon emissions - which is what we’ve seen over the past three years [ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/13/stunningly-good-news-for-the-planet-carbon-emissions-were-flat-for-the-third-straight-year/ ] - would still result in an ever-burgeoning concentration of it in the atmosphere.
In fact, even if emissions somehow plummeted to zero tomorrow, it would still take many years for the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere to start tapering.
“At best [in that scenario], one might expect a balance in the near term and so CO2 levels probably wouldn’t change much - but would start to fall off in a decade or so [ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-s-co2-passes-the-400-ppm-threshold-maybe-permanently/ ],” Gavin Schmidt, NASA’s chief climate scientist, told Climate Central last year.
And this is the best-case scenario. Though carbon emissions have been relatively flat [ http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-accord-carbon-idUSKBN13900T ] in recent years, people are still spewing enormous amounts of it into the atmosphere every year. In 2014, an estimated 35.7 billion tons of carbon dioxide [ http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/news_docs/jrc-2015-trends-in-global-co2-emissions-2015-report-98184.pdf ] was released by the burning of fossil fuels alone.
EPA chief Scott Pruitt said this month that he “would not agree” that carbon dioxide is a primary contributor to global warming.
Bloomberg/Getty Images
Since the Industrial Revolution, carbon dioxide already released into the atmosphere has caused an average global temperature increase of about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit [ http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2391/analyses-reveal-record-shattering-global-warm-temperatures-in-2015/ ] (or 1 degree Celsius) - a shift that’s led to record temperatures [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/august-hottest-month-nasa_us_57d7c28ee4b09d7a687f80dc ], melting ice sheets, extreme weather events [ https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/sep/08/climate-change-louisiana-floods-increased-risk ] and other significant impacts.
At current rates of warming, scientists have predicted that global temperatures could rise by up to 10 degrees Fahrenheit [ https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page3.php ] (or 6 degrees Celsius) over the next century. By signing last year’s landmark Paris Agreement, however, more than 190 countries vowed to cut their carbon output so as to keep global warming “to well below” 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit [ https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-11-05/historic-paris-climate-change-agreement-just-went-effect ] (2 degrees Celsius).
But President Donald Trump [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/topic/donald-trump ] and his administration have shown reluctance - and even hostility [ https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/03/trumps-war-on-the-climate-begins/519159/ ] - toward the global consensus. Trump has called climate change a “hoax” and “bullshit [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-climate-change-action_us_5847dd05e4b08c82e888db36 ],” and said he wants to pull the U.S. out of the global climate agreement. He’s also expected to soon sign an executive order [ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/03/14/trump-is-poised-to-issue-a-sweeping-order-dismantling-obamas-climate-plan-this-week/ ], seeking to repeal the historic Clean Power Plan [ https://www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan ] regulation that former President Barack Obama [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/topic/barack-obama ]’s administration issued, which restricts greenhouse gas emissions [ https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/what-happens-to-obamas-clean-power-plan-after-the-election ] from power plants.
Last week, Pruitt prompted a furor [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/scott-pruitt-carbon-dioxide_us_58c16401e4b0d1078ca48714 ] in the scientific community and among many in the American public when he claimed that carbon dioxide released by humans is not definitively the primary contributor to climate change.
“I think that measuring with precision human activity on the climate is something very challenging to do and there’s tremendous disagreement about the degree of impact, so no, I would not agree that it’s a primary contributor to the global warming that we see,” the EPA chief told CNBC [ http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/09/epa-chief-scott-pruitt.html ]. “We need to continue the debate and continue the review and the analysis.”
The phones in Pruitt’s office were reportedly “ringing off the hook [ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/03/10/epa-administrator-scott-pruitt-call-your-office/ ]” following these comments, as hundreds of people called in to express their outrage.
Pruitt, whose close ties to the fossil fuel industry are well-documented [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pruitt-emails_us_58adda3ce4b03d80af71a4eb ], was also the target of a letter [ https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/scientists-to-epa-head-you-dont-know-what-youre-talking-about/ ] that a group of 30 climate scientists wrote this week that lambasted his comments.
“Just as there is no escaping gravity when one steps off a cliff, there is no escaping the warming that follows when we add extra carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere,” said the letter [ https://www.dropbox.com/s/x73rror6yxh779o/scientists_letter_Pruitt_20170313.pdf?dl=0 ], signed by researchers from Harvard University, Stanford University, Princeton University, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, among others.
“{If} we continue to increase the atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, the Earth will continue to heat up, with serious consequences for economies and ecosystems across the globe,” the scientists added.
Related...
EPA Chief Scott Pruitt Disagrees With Science On Another Major Climate Change Issue
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/scott-pruitt-carbon-dioxide_us_58c16401e4b0d1078ca48714
What You Can Do Right Now To Stop Trump’s Dangerous Climate Agenda
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-climate-change-action_us_5847dd05e4b08c82e888db36
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pruitt-epa-speech_us_58ac7e76e4b0c4d51057164f
Scott Pruitt Has Sued The Environmental Protection Agency 13 Times. Now He Wants To Lead It.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/scott-pruitt-environmental-protection-agency_us_5878ad15e4b0b3c7a7b0c29c
Emails Reveal Chummy Relations Between EPA Chief And Industries He Now Regulates
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pruitt-emails_us_58adda3ce4b03d80af71a4eb
We Just Passed A Grim Carbon Dioxide Threshold, Possibly For Good
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/carbon-dioxide-400ppm-permanent_us_57eb7636e4b082aad9b7e9ab
Copyright © 2017 TheHuffingtonPost.com, Inc. (emphasis in original)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-record-rate-pruitt_us_58c9009ce4b09e52f55492ea
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Neil deGrasse Tyson Isn't Afraid Of A Little Crystallized Water
Published on Mar 15, 2017 by The Late Show with Stephen Colbert [ http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMtFAi84ehTSYSE9XoHefig , http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMtFAi84ehTSYSE9XoHefig/videos ]
Stephen's favorite astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson compares Winter Storm Stella to the ferociously extreme weather that appears on other planets.
[originally aired March 14, 2017]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odKE5mBNcU8 [with comments]
*
'Pluto Had It Coming' Says Neil deGrasse Tyson
Published on Mar 15, 2017 by The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
The author and science communicator defends his rationale for demoting Pluto's status, saying the heavenly body had no place being designated a planet to begin with.
[originally aired March 14, 2017]
Neil deGrasse Tyson Issues Stark Warning To Donald Trump’s Administration
Hold him back!
03/15/2017
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/neil-degrasse-tyson-donald-trump-science_us_58c8f9a8e4b022994fa33804 [with this YouTube embedded]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nqT7XrYRPc [with comments]
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Earth's Oceans Are Warming 13 Percent Faster than Thought
March 13, 2017
[...]
... One main outcome of the study is that it shows we are warming about 13% faster than we previously thought. Not only that but the warming has accelerated. The warming rate from 1992 is almost twice as great as the warming rate from 1960. Moreover, it is only since about 1990 that the warming has penetrated to depths below about 700 meters.
[...]
http://www.sci-tech-today.com/story.xhtml?story_id=100005LXSPPS
Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015
Science Advances 10 Mar 2017:
Vol. 3, no. 3, e1601545
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1601545
Abstract
Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) drives the ongoing global warming and can best be assessed across the historical record (that is, since 1960) from ocean heat content (OHC) changes. An accurate assessment of OHC is a challenge, mainly because of insufficient and irregular data coverage. We provide updated OHC estimates with the goal of minimizing associated sampling error. We performed a subsample test, in which subsets of data during the data-rich Argo era are colocated with locations of earlier ocean observations, to quantify this error. Our results provide a new OHC estimate with an unbiased mean sampling error and with variability on decadal and multidecadal time scales (signal) that can be reliably distinguished from sampling error (noise) with signal-to-noise ratios higher than 3. The inferred integrated EEI is greater than that reported in previous assessments and is consistent with a reconstruction of the radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere starting in 1985. We found that changes in OHC are relatively small before about 1980; since then, OHC has increased fairly steadily and, since 1990, has increasingly involved deeper layers of the ocean. In addition, OHC changes in six major oceans are reliable on decadal time scales. All ocean basins examined have experienced significant warming since 1998, with the greatest warming in the southern oceans, the tropical/subtropical Pacific Ocean, and the tropical/subtropical Atlantic Ocean. This new look at OHC and EEI changes over time provides greater confidence than previously possible, and the data sets produced are a valuable resource for further study.
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1601545 , full text http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1601545.full
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Interior Department to withdraw Obama-era fracking rule, filings reveal
Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, extracts oil and gas from the Monterey Shale formation near Buttonwillow, Calif., in March 2014.
March 15, 2017
The Trump administration plans to withdraw and rewrite a 2015 rule aimed at limiting hydraulic fracturing [ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/06/22/federal-judge-says-obama-administration-lacks-authority-to-halt-fracking-on-public-lands/ ], or “fracking,” on public lands, the Interior Department indicated in court filings Wednesday.
The move to rescind the 2015 regulation, which has been stayed in federal court, represents the latest effort by the new administration to ease restraints on oil and gas production in the United States. Interior’s Bureau of Land Management issued the rule in an effort to minimize the risk of water contamination through the practice, which involves injecting a mix of chemicals and water at high pressure into underground rock formations to force out oil and gas.
Under the proposal, companies that drill on federal and tribal lands would be subject to stricter design standards for wells and for holding tanks and ponds where liquid wastes are stored. They also would be forced to report which chemicals they were pumping into the ground.
But last June, U.S. District Judge Scott Skavdahl in Wyoming ruled that Interior had exceeded its congressional mandate in choosing to regulate the controversial drilling practice. While Obama administration officials appealed that decision to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit, the appeals court asked BLM on March 9 if the agency’s position had changed now that Trump is in office.
On Wednesday, Justice Department lawyers representing Interior and BLM asked the court to “continue the oral argument and hold these appeals in abeyance pending a new rulemaking” on the issue. The attorneys noted that Interior officials were already reviewing the regulation to mesh with Trump’s agenda.
“As part of this process, the Department has begun reviewing the 2015 Final Rule (and all guidance issued pursuant thereto) for consistency with the policies and priorities of the new Administration,” the motion reads. “This initial review has revealed that the 2015 Final Rule does not reflect those policies and priorities.”
[...]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/03/15/interior-department-to-withdraw-obama-era-fracking-rule-filings-reveal/ [with comments]
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Arctic sea ice, Eurasia snow, and extreme winter haze in China
Science Advances 15 Mar 2017:
Vol. 3, no. 3, e1602751
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1602751
Abstract
The East China Plains (ECP) region experienced the worst haze pollution on record for January in 2013. We show that the unprecedented haze event is due to the extremely poor ventilation conditions, which had not been seen in the preceding three decades. Statistical analysis suggests that the extremely poor ventilation conditions are linked to Arctic sea ice loss in the preceding autumn and extensive boreal snowfall in the earlier winter. We identify the regional circulation mode that leads to extremely poor ventilation over the ECP region. Climate model simulations indicate that boreal cryospheric forcing enhances the regional circulation mode of poor ventilation in the ECP region and provides conducive conditions for extreme haze such as that of 2013. Consequently, extreme haze events in winter will likely occur at a higher frequency in China as a result of the changing boreal cryosphere, posing difficult challenges for winter haze mitigation but providing a strong incentive for greenhouse gas emission reduction.
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1602751 , full text http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1602751.full
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Plaintiffs in U.S. lawsuit say Monsanto ghostwrote Roundup studies
Mar 14, 2017
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-monsanto-cancer-lawsuit-idUSKBN16M01N
Emails show Monsanto tried to 'ghostwrite' research
March 16, 2017
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/03/16/emails-show-monsanto-tried-ghostwrite-research/99248950/ [with embedded video]
Monsanto Weed Killer Roundup Faces New Doubts on Safety in Unsealed Documents
A scanning machine illuminating a bottle of Roundup, a weed killer, as it moved along a production line at a facility in Antwerp, Belgium, owned by Monsanto.
MARCH 14, 2017
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/14/business/monsanto-roundup-safety-lawsuit.html [with comments]
California clears final hurdle for cancer label on Roundup
Mar. 14, 2017
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2e4a4f151e684c9ba61a1df9314f857e/california-clears-final-hurdle-cancer-label-roundup
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Watch out: Mammals shrink when Earth heats up, study says
In this photo provided by Abigail D'Ambrosia Carroll, an Arenahippus jaw fragment (with second and third molars), as discovered in field. Global warming often leads to global shrinking for mammals, like us, a new study suggests. At least twice before in Earth's history, when carbon dioxide levels soared and temperatures spiked, mammals shriveled in size, including our earliest primate ancestor, according to a new study based on fossil teeth found in Wyoming. And the study's chief author said it could be a glimpse of a smaller mammal future under even faster man-made warning that's going on now.
In this artist rendering provided by the Florida Museum of Natural History, illustration by Danielle Byerley shows a comparison of a Sifrhippus sandrae, right, with a modern Morgan horse that stands about 5 feet tall at the shoulder and weighs about 1,000 pounds. Three different species shrank noticeably about 54 million years ago when the planet suddenly heated up. One of them—an early, compact horse—got 14 percent smaller, going from about 17 pounds (7.7 kilograms) to 14.6 pounds (6.6 kilograms), according to an analysis of fossil teeth in Wednesday's journal Science Advances. "These guys were probably about the size of maybe a dog, then they dwarfed," said D'Ambrosia. "They may have gone down to the size of a cat."
March 15, 2017
https://phys.org/news/2017-03-mammals-earth.html [with comments] [AP original at http://bigstory.ap.org/article/a0e131ee93f64e84807fef4b719ff32c/watch-out-mammals-shrink-when-earth-heats-study-says ]
Repetitive mammalian dwarfing during ancient greenhouse warming events
Science Advances 15 Mar 2017:
Vol. 3, no. 3, e1601430
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1601430
Abstract
Abrupt perturbations of the global carbon cycle during the early Eocene are associated with rapid global warming events, which are analogous in many ways to present greenhouse warming. Mammal dwarfing has been observed, along with other changes in community structure, during the largest of these ancient global warming events, known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum [PETM; ~56 million years ago (Ma)]. We show that mammalian dwarfing accompanied the subsequent, smaller-magnitude warming event known as Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 [ETM2 (~53 Ma)]. Statistically significant decrease in body size during ETM2 is observed in two of four taxonomic groups analyzed in this study and is most clearly observed in early equids (horses). During ETM2, the best-sampled lineage of equids decreased in size by ~14%, as opposed to ~30% during the PETM. Thus, dwarfing appears to be a common evolutionary response of some mammals during past global warming events, and the extent of dwarfing seems related to the magnitude of the event.
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1601430 , full text http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1601430.full
How global warming leads to tiny horses and other shrinking mammals
Field location within the McCullough Peaks region of the Bighorn Basin where scientists discovered evidence of mammal dwarfing caused by global warming. Fossil teeth are often found eroding out of the hills and slopes here.
March 15, 2017
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/global-warming-leads-tiny-horses-shrinking-mammals/
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Even as Scott Pruitt denies carbon dioxide’s role in fueling climate change, the NOAA has revealed that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas have been increasing at an “unprecedented” rate.
Wolfgang Rattay/Reuters
“As we twiddle our thumbs, CO2 just keeps going up and up.”
By Dominique Mosbergen
03/15/2017 12:11 pm ET
Environmental Protection Agency [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/topic/epa ] chief Scott Pruitt may not believe [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/scott-pruitt-carbon-dioxide_us_58c16401e4b0d1078ca48714 ] that carbon dioxide is to blame for global warming, but most scientists say [ https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/ ] the evidence is clear. And now new data shows the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased at a record pace [ http://www.climatecentral.org/news/carbon-dioxide-record-rates-21242 ] for the second year in a row.
“As we twiddle our thumbs, CO2 just keeps going up and up [ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-hits-record-levels/ ],” Ralph Keeling, director of the Scripps Institute for Oceanography’s carbon dioxide monitoring program, told Scientific American Tuesday. Climate scientists have long agreed that the carbon dioxide that humans pump into the atmosphere is the primary driver of climate change, he added.
Atmospheric CO2 levels measured at the Mauna Loa Baseline Atmospheric Observatory [ https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/ ] in Hawaii, the world’s marquee site for carbon dioxide monitoring, soared by a record-breaking 3 parts per million in both 2015 and 2016, according to data that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released on Friday.
Carbon dioxide concentrations measured at the facility hit 405.1 parts per million last year, the agency said, adding that similar observations had been recorded at dozens of other sites all over the world.
NOAA
@NOAA
Carbon dioxide (#CO2) levels rose at record pace for 2nd straight year at Mauna Loa Observatory: http://www.noaa.gov/news/carbon-dioxide-levels-rose-at-record-pace-for-2nd-straight-year ;... via @NOAAResearch
12:55 PM - 10 Mar 2017
[ https://twitter.com/NOAA/status/840274911243444225 (with comments)]
Pieter Tans, lead scientist at NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network, said that carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased at least 2 parts per million for the five consecutive years - an “unprecedented” growth rate.
“The rate of CO2 growth over the last decade is 100 to 200 times faster than what the Earth experienced during the transition from the last ice age,” Tans said in a statement. “This is a real shock to the atmosphere [ http://www.noaa.gov/news/carbon-dioxide-levels-rose-at-record-pace-for-2nd-straight-year ].”
Climate Central
@ClimateCentral
Carbon dioxide is rising so fast, it's "a real shock to the atmosphere" (and the planet) http://www.climatecentral.org/news/carbon-dioxide-record-rates-21242
11:04 PM - 14 Mar 2017
[ https://twitter.com/ClimateCentral/status/841862545946378242 (no comments yet)]
In 2013, Mauna Loa Observatory scientists announced that atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide had reached a daily average above 400 parts per million [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/10/atmospheric-co2-concentrations_n_3253757.html ] for the first time in history. CO2 concentrations “haven’t been this high in millions of years,” said [ http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/ ] scientist Erika Podest at the time. “This milestone is a wake-up call.”
Two years later, the world reached another grim benchmark. NOAA said the monthly global average concentration [ http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends ] of CO2 had surpassed 400 parts per million for the first time. A year after that, scientists said global CO2 levels would likely not fall below 400 parts per million - perhaps ever again [ http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends ].
“I think we’re essentially over for good [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/carbon-dioxide-400ppm-permanent_us_57eb7636e4b082aad9b7e9ab ],” Keeling said in May 2016.
Protesters chant during a rally against climate change in San Diego, California, on Feb. 21, 2017.
SANDY HUFFAKER/Getty Images
In the 10,000 years or so before the Industrial Revolution [ http://www.history.com/topics/industrial-revolution ], atmospheric carbon dioxide levels had averaged about 280 parts per million. Since then, however, the concentration of CO2 has skyrocketed, ballooning from about 300 parts per million in 1960 to the current astronomical level.
And the upward trend is showing no signs of slowing. Scientists say 410 parts per million [ http://www.climatecentral.org/news/carbon-dioxide-410-ppm-21223 ] could be reached later this month, a concentration never before witnessed in human history.
“The momentum we’re seeing right now, going upwards, I think is going to easily carry us through 450 parts per million [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/22/carbon-dioxide-climate-change_n_5187844.html ],” Keeling told the The Huffington Post in an earlier interview. “And then I would say even stabilizing before 500 parts per million is probably not going to be very easy.”
Since carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for hundreds, even thousands of years [ https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/jan/16/greenhouse-gases-remain-air ], even a fairly stable rate of carbon emissions - which is what we’ve seen over the past three years [ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/13/stunningly-good-news-for-the-planet-carbon-emissions-were-flat-for-the-third-straight-year/ ] - would still result in an ever-burgeoning concentration of it in the atmosphere.
In fact, even if emissions somehow plummeted to zero tomorrow, it would still take many years for the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere to start tapering.
“At best [in that scenario], one might expect a balance in the near term and so CO2 levels probably wouldn’t change much - but would start to fall off in a decade or so [ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-s-co2-passes-the-400-ppm-threshold-maybe-permanently/ ],” Gavin Schmidt, NASA’s chief climate scientist, told Climate Central last year.
And this is the best-case scenario. Though carbon emissions have been relatively flat [ http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-accord-carbon-idUSKBN13900T ] in recent years, people are still spewing enormous amounts of it into the atmosphere every year. In 2014, an estimated 35.7 billion tons of carbon dioxide [ http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/news_docs/jrc-2015-trends-in-global-co2-emissions-2015-report-98184.pdf ] was released by the burning of fossil fuels alone.
EPA chief Scott Pruitt said this month that he “would not agree” that carbon dioxide is a primary contributor to global warming.
Bloomberg/Getty Images
Since the Industrial Revolution, carbon dioxide already released into the atmosphere has caused an average global temperature increase of about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit [ http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2391/analyses-reveal-record-shattering-global-warm-temperatures-in-2015/ ] (or 1 degree Celsius) - a shift that’s led to record temperatures [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/august-hottest-month-nasa_us_57d7c28ee4b09d7a687f80dc ], melting ice sheets, extreme weather events [ https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/sep/08/climate-change-louisiana-floods-increased-risk ] and other significant impacts.
At current rates of warming, scientists have predicted that global temperatures could rise by up to 10 degrees Fahrenheit [ https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page3.php ] (or 6 degrees Celsius) over the next century. By signing last year’s landmark Paris Agreement, however, more than 190 countries vowed to cut their carbon output so as to keep global warming “to well below” 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit [ https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-11-05/historic-paris-climate-change-agreement-just-went-effect ] (2 degrees Celsius).
But President Donald Trump [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/topic/donald-trump ] and his administration have shown reluctance - and even hostility [ https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/03/trumps-war-on-the-climate-begins/519159/ ] - toward the global consensus. Trump has called climate change a “hoax” and “bullshit [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-climate-change-action_us_5847dd05e4b08c82e888db36 ],” and said he wants to pull the U.S. out of the global climate agreement. He’s also expected to soon sign an executive order [ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/03/14/trump-is-poised-to-issue-a-sweeping-order-dismantling-obamas-climate-plan-this-week/ ], seeking to repeal the historic Clean Power Plan [ https://www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan ] regulation that former President Barack Obama [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/topic/barack-obama ]’s administration issued, which restricts greenhouse gas emissions [ https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/what-happens-to-obamas-clean-power-plan-after-the-election ] from power plants.
Last week, Pruitt prompted a furor [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/scott-pruitt-carbon-dioxide_us_58c16401e4b0d1078ca48714 ] in the scientific community and among many in the American public when he claimed that carbon dioxide released by humans is not definitively the primary contributor to climate change.
“I think that measuring with precision human activity on the climate is something very challenging to do and there’s tremendous disagreement about the degree of impact, so no, I would not agree that it’s a primary contributor to the global warming that we see,” the EPA chief told CNBC [ http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/09/epa-chief-scott-pruitt.html ]. “We need to continue the debate and continue the review and the analysis.”
The phones in Pruitt’s office were reportedly “ringing off the hook [ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/03/10/epa-administrator-scott-pruitt-call-your-office/ ]” following these comments, as hundreds of people called in to express their outrage.
Pruitt, whose close ties to the fossil fuel industry are well-documented [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pruitt-emails_us_58adda3ce4b03d80af71a4eb ], was also the target of a letter [ https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/scientists-to-epa-head-you-dont-know-what-youre-talking-about/ ] that a group of 30 climate scientists wrote this week that lambasted his comments.
“Just as there is no escaping gravity when one steps off a cliff, there is no escaping the warming that follows when we add extra carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere,” said the letter [ https://www.dropbox.com/s/x73rror6yxh779o/scientists_letter_Pruitt_20170313.pdf?dl=0 ], signed by researchers from Harvard University, Stanford University, Princeton University, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, among others.
“{If} we continue to increase the atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, the Earth will continue to heat up, with serious consequences for economies and ecosystems across the globe,” the scientists added.
Related...
EPA Chief Scott Pruitt Disagrees With Science On Another Major Climate Change Issue
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/scott-pruitt-carbon-dioxide_us_58c16401e4b0d1078ca48714
What You Can Do Right Now To Stop Trump’s Dangerous Climate Agenda
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-climate-change-action_us_5847dd05e4b08c82e888db36
Scott Pruitt Goes After Critics, EPA In His First Speech To The Agency
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pruitt-epa-speech_us_58ac7e76e4b0c4d51057164f
Scott Pruitt Has Sued The Environmental Protection Agency 13 Times. Now He Wants To Lead It.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/scott-pruitt-environmental-protection-agency_us_5878ad15e4b0b3c7a7b0c29c
Emails Reveal Chummy Relations Between EPA Chief And Industries He Now Regulates
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pruitt-emails_us_58adda3ce4b03d80af71a4eb
We Just Passed A Grim Carbon Dioxide Threshold, Possibly For Good
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/carbon-dioxide-400ppm-permanent_us_57eb7636e4b082aad9b7e9ab
Copyright © 2017 TheHuffingtonPost.com, Inc. (emphasis in original)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-record-rate-pruitt_us_58c9009ce4b09e52f55492ea
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Neil deGrasse Tyson Isn't Afraid Of A Little Crystallized Water
Published on Mar 15, 2017 by The Late Show with Stephen Colbert [ http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMtFAi84ehTSYSE9XoHefig , http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMtFAi84ehTSYSE9XoHefig/videos ]
Stephen's favorite astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson compares Winter Storm Stella to the ferociously extreme weather that appears on other planets.
[originally aired March 14, 2017]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odKE5mBNcU8 [with comments]
*
'Pluto Had It Coming' Says Neil deGrasse Tyson
Published on Mar 15, 2017 by The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
The author and science communicator defends his rationale for demoting Pluto's status, saying the heavenly body had no place being designated a planet to begin with.
[originally aired March 14, 2017]
Neil deGrasse Tyson Issues Stark Warning To Donald Trump’s Administration
Hold him back!
03/15/2017
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/neil-degrasse-tyson-donald-trump-science_us_58c8f9a8e4b022994fa33804 [with this YouTube embedded]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nqT7XrYRPc [with comments]
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Earth's Oceans Are Warming 13 Percent Faster than Thought
March 13, 2017
[...]
... One main outcome of the study is that it shows we are warming about 13% faster than we previously thought. Not only that but the warming has accelerated. The warming rate from 1992 is almost twice as great as the warming rate from 1960. Moreover, it is only since about 1990 that the warming has penetrated to depths below about 700 meters.
[...]
http://www.sci-tech-today.com/story.xhtml?story_id=100005LXSPPS
Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015
Science Advances 10 Mar 2017:
Vol. 3, no. 3, e1601545
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1601545
Abstract
Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) drives the ongoing global warming and can best be assessed across the historical record (that is, since 1960) from ocean heat content (OHC) changes. An accurate assessment of OHC is a challenge, mainly because of insufficient and irregular data coverage. We provide updated OHC estimates with the goal of minimizing associated sampling error. We performed a subsample test, in which subsets of data during the data-rich Argo era are colocated with locations of earlier ocean observations, to quantify this error. Our results provide a new OHC estimate with an unbiased mean sampling error and with variability on decadal and multidecadal time scales (signal) that can be reliably distinguished from sampling error (noise) with signal-to-noise ratios higher than 3. The inferred integrated EEI is greater than that reported in previous assessments and is consistent with a reconstruction of the radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere starting in 1985. We found that changes in OHC are relatively small before about 1980; since then, OHC has increased fairly steadily and, since 1990, has increasingly involved deeper layers of the ocean. In addition, OHC changes in six major oceans are reliable on decadal time scales. All ocean basins examined have experienced significant warming since 1998, with the greatest warming in the southern oceans, the tropical/subtropical Pacific Ocean, and the tropical/subtropical Atlantic Ocean. This new look at OHC and EEI changes over time provides greater confidence than previously possible, and the data sets produced are a valuable resource for further study.
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1601545 , full text http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1601545.full
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Interior Department to withdraw Obama-era fracking rule, filings reveal
Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, extracts oil and gas from the Monterey Shale formation near Buttonwillow, Calif., in March 2014.
March 15, 2017
The Trump administration plans to withdraw and rewrite a 2015 rule aimed at limiting hydraulic fracturing [ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/06/22/federal-judge-says-obama-administration-lacks-authority-to-halt-fracking-on-public-lands/ ], or “fracking,” on public lands, the Interior Department indicated in court filings Wednesday.
The move to rescind the 2015 regulation, which has been stayed in federal court, represents the latest effort by the new administration to ease restraints on oil and gas production in the United States. Interior’s Bureau of Land Management issued the rule in an effort to minimize the risk of water contamination through the practice, which involves injecting a mix of chemicals and water at high pressure into underground rock formations to force out oil and gas.
Under the proposal, companies that drill on federal and tribal lands would be subject to stricter design standards for wells and for holding tanks and ponds where liquid wastes are stored. They also would be forced to report which chemicals they were pumping into the ground.
But last June, U.S. District Judge Scott Skavdahl in Wyoming ruled that Interior had exceeded its congressional mandate in choosing to regulate the controversial drilling practice. While Obama administration officials appealed that decision to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit, the appeals court asked BLM on March 9 if the agency’s position had changed now that Trump is in office.
On Wednesday, Justice Department lawyers representing Interior and BLM asked the court to “continue the oral argument and hold these appeals in abeyance pending a new rulemaking” on the issue. The attorneys noted that Interior officials were already reviewing the regulation to mesh with Trump’s agenda.
“As part of this process, the Department has begun reviewing the 2015 Final Rule (and all guidance issued pursuant thereto) for consistency with the policies and priorities of the new Administration,” the motion reads. “This initial review has revealed that the 2015 Final Rule does not reflect those policies and priorities.”
[...]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/03/15/interior-department-to-withdraw-obama-era-fracking-rule-filings-reveal/ [with comments]
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Arctic sea ice, Eurasia snow, and extreme winter haze in China
Science Advances 15 Mar 2017:
Vol. 3, no. 3, e1602751
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1602751
Abstract
The East China Plains (ECP) region experienced the worst haze pollution on record for January in 2013. We show that the unprecedented haze event is due to the extremely poor ventilation conditions, which had not been seen in the preceding three decades. Statistical analysis suggests that the extremely poor ventilation conditions are linked to Arctic sea ice loss in the preceding autumn and extensive boreal snowfall in the earlier winter. We identify the regional circulation mode that leads to extremely poor ventilation over the ECP region. Climate model simulations indicate that boreal cryospheric forcing enhances the regional circulation mode of poor ventilation in the ECP region and provides conducive conditions for extreme haze such as that of 2013. Consequently, extreme haze events in winter will likely occur at a higher frequency in China as a result of the changing boreal cryosphere, posing difficult challenges for winter haze mitigation but providing a strong incentive for greenhouse gas emission reduction.
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1602751 , full text http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1602751.full
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Plaintiffs in U.S. lawsuit say Monsanto ghostwrote Roundup studies
Mar 14, 2017
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-monsanto-cancer-lawsuit-idUSKBN16M01N
Emails show Monsanto tried to 'ghostwrite' research
March 16, 2017
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/03/16/emails-show-monsanto-tried-ghostwrite-research/99248950/ [with embedded video]
Monsanto Weed Killer Roundup Faces New Doubts on Safety in Unsealed Documents
A scanning machine illuminating a bottle of Roundup, a weed killer, as it moved along a production line at a facility in Antwerp, Belgium, owned by Monsanto.
MARCH 14, 2017
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/14/business/monsanto-roundup-safety-lawsuit.html [with comments]
California clears final hurdle for cancer label on Roundup
Mar. 14, 2017
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2e4a4f151e684c9ba61a1df9314f857e/california-clears-final-hurdle-cancer-label-roundup
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Watch out: Mammals shrink when Earth heats up, study says
In this photo provided by Abigail D'Ambrosia Carroll, an Arenahippus jaw fragment (with second and third molars), as discovered in field. Global warming often leads to global shrinking for mammals, like us, a new study suggests. At least twice before in Earth's history, when carbon dioxide levels soared and temperatures spiked, mammals shriveled in size, including our earliest primate ancestor, according to a new study based on fossil teeth found in Wyoming. And the study's chief author said it could be a glimpse of a smaller mammal future under even faster man-made warning that's going on now.
In this artist rendering provided by the Florida Museum of Natural History, illustration by Danielle Byerley shows a comparison of a Sifrhippus sandrae, right, with a modern Morgan horse that stands about 5 feet tall at the shoulder and weighs about 1,000 pounds. Three different species shrank noticeably about 54 million years ago when the planet suddenly heated up. One of them—an early, compact horse—got 14 percent smaller, going from about 17 pounds (7.7 kilograms) to 14.6 pounds (6.6 kilograms), according to an analysis of fossil teeth in Wednesday's journal Science Advances. "These guys were probably about the size of maybe a dog, then they dwarfed," said D'Ambrosia. "They may have gone down to the size of a cat."
March 15, 2017
https://phys.org/news/2017-03-mammals-earth.html [with comments] [AP original at http://bigstory.ap.org/article/a0e131ee93f64e84807fef4b719ff32c/watch-out-mammals-shrink-when-earth-heats-study-says ]
Repetitive mammalian dwarfing during ancient greenhouse warming events
Science Advances 15 Mar 2017:
Vol. 3, no. 3, e1601430
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1601430
Abstract
Abrupt perturbations of the global carbon cycle during the early Eocene are associated with rapid global warming events, which are analogous in many ways to present greenhouse warming. Mammal dwarfing has been observed, along with other changes in community structure, during the largest of these ancient global warming events, known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum [PETM; ~56 million years ago (Ma)]. We show that mammalian dwarfing accompanied the subsequent, smaller-magnitude warming event known as Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 [ETM2 (~53 Ma)]. Statistically significant decrease in body size during ETM2 is observed in two of four taxonomic groups analyzed in this study and is most clearly observed in early equids (horses). During ETM2, the best-sampled lineage of equids decreased in size by ~14%, as opposed to ~30% during the PETM. Thus, dwarfing appears to be a common evolutionary response of some mammals during past global warming events, and the extent of dwarfing seems related to the magnitude of the event.
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1601430 , full text http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1601430.full
How global warming leads to tiny horses and other shrinking mammals
Field location within the McCullough Peaks region of the Bighorn Basin where scientists discovered evidence of mammal dwarfing caused by global warming. Fossil teeth are often found eroding out of the hills and slopes here.
March 15, 2017
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/global-warming-leads-tiny-horses-shrinking-mammals/
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Greensburg, KS - 5/4/07
"Eternal vigilance is the price of Liberty."
from John Philpot Curran, Speech
upon the Right of Election, 1790
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