Wednesday, March 01, 2017 9:37:59 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/28 2017 EOD
All considered, I suspect we pause in the down move and go sideways with a mild negative near-term tendency.
Today had there major segments: open high and drop and do a big sideways in that range though ~11:20. Go extremely low/no-volume, interrupted by some volume spikes, flattish with a buying bias through ~15:20. Do the EOD volatility, on extremely low volume, to jack the price up to what any self-respecting MM would consider acceptable - just a couple cents off the artificial high set early in the day.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 100:980 $0.7110/$0.7640.
09:30-09:51 opened the day with a 28 share $0.7398 buy (not allowed to be official open). B/a just after open was 20K:11.2K $0.7350/$0.75. Then came ... nothing until 9:33's odd-lot 90 share $0.7350, 9:34's b/a of 25K800 $0.7350/$0.7499, 9:36's odd-lot 50 share $0.7499, 9:40's b/a 25K:300 $0.7499 (offers backed by presented 11K $0.75), 9:42's 500 $0.7380, 9:45's 1.7K $0.7390 (1.5K)/50, 9:49's 100 $0.7451, 9:49's b/a 500:2.1K $0.7450/97, and the period ended on 9:51's 600 $0.7450/45.
09:52-10:26, during the first seven no-trades minutes had b/a at 9:54 of 25K:700 $0.7350/$0.7496. Trade began with 10:59's 5.7K $0.7458 (5K)/$0.7350, 10:01's b/a 25K:1K $0.7350/$0.7496, 10:02's 13.6K $0.7496 (100)/$0.7350, 10:03's 1.4K $0.7350. That was followed by an extremely low/no-volume decline from $0.7499. 10:13's 100 $0.7494. B/a at 10:14 was 300:700 $0.7401/94, 10:16 300:1.4K $0.7401/49 (offers falling rapidly). 10:17's 200 hit $0.7401. B/a at 10:18 was 24.1K:1K $0.7350/97. 10:23's 400 hit $0.738. The period ended on 10:26's 34.1K did $0.735.
10:27-11:19, after two no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume rise through 10:38 followed by a drop, from $0.7373/63 on 10:29-:30's 1.1K $0.7563/$0.7373 (1K). B/a at 10:32 was 7.1K:100 $0.7350. 10:38's 100 hit the peak at $0.76. 10:43's 100 brought range back down to $0.7362/$0.7499, with rising lows and slowly declining highs. B/a at 10:46 was 5.7K:2K $0.7400/99, 11:02 6.6K:3.6K $0.7400/98, 11:16 6.6K:3.8K $0.7400/97. The period ended on 11:19's 1.1K $0.7400/97.
11:20-15:17 had much more buying. After four no-trades minutes, trading began a very low-volume rise, through 11:45, from $0.7133/50 after 11:24's 6.1K $0.7400/$0.7350 and 11:25's 10.3K $0.7350/45/$0.7202/10/$0.7125/$0.7202/$0.7150/26/36/32. 11:27's 100 hit $0.72. 11:45's 10.4K hit $0.7205/96. Trade then began very low/no-volume, with occasional volume interruptions, $0.7205/96 with rising lows and slowly rising highs. B/a at 11:34 was 805:300 $0.7200/06, 11:47 2.4K:600 $0.7210/96 (bids rising quickly), 12:01 1.5K:200 $0.7245/$0.73. 12:11's 838 hit $0.73. B/a at 12:14 was 1.3K:200 $0.7250/$0.73. Bids reset down at 12:15, going to 2.1K:200 $0.7210/$0.73. Return of the bid walkers?. 12:24's 200 $0.7207 opened range back up to $0.7202/$0.7227. B/a at 12:32 was 700:200 $0.7230.$0.73 (bids walking up), 12:47 100:300 $0.7228/$0.73, 13:02 400:1K $0.7250/$0.73, 13:17 400:800 $0.7250/4, 13:32 400:200 $0.7220/99, 13:47 400:1.6K $0.7220/99, 14:02 200:1.3K $0.7220/99, 14:17 300:1.6K $0.7220/97, 14:32 200:2.2K $0.7220/96, 14:47 200:1K $0.7220/95, 15:02 300:1.5K $0.7250/8, 15:16 200:2.2K $0.7220/80. The period ended on 15:17's 570 $0.7246.
15:18-16:00, after two no-trades minutes, began the EOD volatility, mostly extremely low/no-volume, $0.722/$0.7494 on 15:20's 200 $0.722. B/a at 15:32 was 1.4K:400 $0.7250/$0.7496, 15:47 200:2K $0.7400/94. The perioed ended on 15:59's 2.5K $0.725 and 16:00's 1,407 sell for $0.725.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 84,465, 49.10% of day's volume, with a $0.7338 VWAP. The count seems reasonable for the volume. As common recently, the percentage of day's volume is high. The VWAP is slightly above the day's $0.7316. Combined with the change in buy percentages subsequent to the 10:26-ending period (see below), I suspect a lot of this was covering buys by shorters and/or MMs. I guess daily short percentage will be near the low end of my range if things are normal.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart the range topped at the descending longer-term resistance (descending red line), penetrated the rising support (s suggested yesterday we would again test it), rising orange line, and closed barely above it.1s
If we discount the single 100-share $0.76 trade our high would have been $00.7563 and we would not have touched the descending resistance.
We also confirmed the break below the rising short-term support, rising green line, by closing below it. So it's offering no support now and could become a rising resistance if we quickly try to move up.
Our trade range was again completely below the mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band and the low is "pushing" the lower limit for the second consecutive day.
The fast EMA is below the slow EMA for the second day, a decidedly bearish omen.
The long-term descending resistance from my one-year chart is still applying pressure.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA gave up the slow rise begun eight days back and the 10-day continued to decline but is still above the 20-day. The spread is tight though and the 10-day should get below the 20 fairly quickly. If we hold here we'll get 10 days of declining 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 5 days of decline. If we hold here the 50 would decline 9 (was 9) days, and the 200-day would fall ~178 (was ~165) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI, MFI (exited overbought and untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R, full stochastic and ADX-related. There was improvement only in accumulation/distribution.
Today had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R (entered oversold), full stochastic (entered oversold), and ADX-related. All are below neutral but for MFI, which is above neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7146 and $0.8142 ($0.7061 and $0.8191 yesterday), continued converging. The mid-point is marginally rising as the lower limit rises more quickly than the upper limit declines.
All in, only the two oscillators in oversold suggest an possibility of a reversal right now. The rising volume on a down leg suggests more near-term downside is likely.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but the short percentage went far above my desired range (needs re-check) while buy percentage only rose to the level that indicates appreciation is possible - not "likely".
The spread widened. If we discount the single $0.76 trade it still widened and would be ~6.3%. During a down trend this suggests more near-term weakness.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the fourth day at 12 negative and 12 positive. Change since 01/24 is $0.0283, 4.02%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2301%, 0.3382%, 0.4031%, 0.3941%, 0.2967%, 0.4694%, 0.3371%, 0.2502%, 0.2845%, and 0.2139%. Uh-oh! Those movements of the averages are starting to give up the ghost.
All in, the short and buy percentage weigh heavily. They are suggesting more near-term weakness but the buy percentage suggests this may quickly change. Adding in the spread would counter that optimism though. The VWAP's gain today was minimal, but at least not down. I'm going with mostly sideways with a mild negative bias near-term based on this stuff.
Bill
All considered, I suspect we pause in the down move and go sideways with a mild negative near-term tendency.
Today had there major segments: open high and drop and do a big sideways in that range though ~11:20. Go extremely low/no-volume, interrupted by some volume spikes, flattish with a buying bias through ~15:20. Do the EOD volatility, on extremely low volume, to jack the price up to what any self-respecting MM would consider acceptable - just a couple cents off the artificial high set early in the day.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 100:980 $0.7110/$0.7640.
09:30-09:51 opened the day with a 28 share $0.7398 buy (not allowed to be official open). B/a just after open was 20K:11.2K $0.7350/$0.75. Then came ... nothing until 9:33's odd-lot 90 share $0.7350, 9:34's b/a of 25K800 $0.7350/$0.7499, 9:36's odd-lot 50 share $0.7499, 9:40's b/a 25K:300 $0.7499 (offers backed by presented 11K $0.75), 9:42's 500 $0.7380, 9:45's 1.7K $0.7390 (1.5K)/50, 9:49's 100 $0.7451, 9:49's b/a 500:2.1K $0.7450/97, and the period ended on 9:51's 600 $0.7450/45.
09:52-10:26, during the first seven no-trades minutes had b/a at 9:54 of 25K:700 $0.7350/$0.7496. Trade began with 10:59's 5.7K $0.7458 (5K)/$0.7350, 10:01's b/a 25K:1K $0.7350/$0.7496, 10:02's 13.6K $0.7496 (100)/$0.7350, 10:03's 1.4K $0.7350. That was followed by an extremely low/no-volume decline from $0.7499. 10:13's 100 $0.7494. B/a at 10:14 was 300:700 $0.7401/94, 10:16 300:1.4K $0.7401/49 (offers falling rapidly). 10:17's 200 hit $0.7401. B/a at 10:18 was 24.1K:1K $0.7350/97. 10:23's 400 hit $0.738. The period ended on 10:26's 34.1K did $0.735.
10:27-11:19, after two no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume rise through 10:38 followed by a drop, from $0.7373/63 on 10:29-:30's 1.1K $0.7563/$0.7373 (1K). B/a at 10:32 was 7.1K:100 $0.7350. 10:38's 100 hit the peak at $0.76. 10:43's 100 brought range back down to $0.7362/$0.7499, with rising lows and slowly declining highs. B/a at 10:46 was 5.7K:2K $0.7400/99, 11:02 6.6K:3.6K $0.7400/98, 11:16 6.6K:3.8K $0.7400/97. The period ended on 11:19's 1.1K $0.7400/97.
11:20-15:17 had much more buying. After four no-trades minutes, trading began a very low-volume rise, through 11:45, from $0.7133/50 after 11:24's 6.1K $0.7400/$0.7350 and 11:25's 10.3K $0.7350/45/$0.7202/10/$0.7125/$0.7202/$0.7150/26/36/32. 11:27's 100 hit $0.72. 11:45's 10.4K hit $0.7205/96. Trade then began very low/no-volume, with occasional volume interruptions, $0.7205/96 with rising lows and slowly rising highs. B/a at 11:34 was 805:300 $0.7200/06, 11:47 2.4K:600 $0.7210/96 (bids rising quickly), 12:01 1.5K:200 $0.7245/$0.73. 12:11's 838 hit $0.73. B/a at 12:14 was 1.3K:200 $0.7250/$0.73. Bids reset down at 12:15, going to 2.1K:200 $0.7210/$0.73. Return of the bid walkers?. 12:24's 200 $0.7207 opened range back up to $0.7202/$0.7227. B/a at 12:32 was 700:200 $0.7230.$0.73 (bids walking up), 12:47 100:300 $0.7228/$0.73, 13:02 400:1K $0.7250/$0.73, 13:17 400:800 $0.7250/4, 13:32 400:200 $0.7220/99, 13:47 400:1.6K $0.7220/99, 14:02 200:1.3K $0.7220/99, 14:17 300:1.6K $0.7220/97, 14:32 200:2.2K $0.7220/96, 14:47 200:1K $0.7220/95, 15:02 300:1.5K $0.7250/8, 15:16 200:2.2K $0.7220/80. The period ended on 15:17's 570 $0.7246.
15:18-16:00, after two no-trades minutes, began the EOD volatility, mostly extremely low/no-volume, $0.722/$0.7494 on 15:20's 200 $0.722. B/a at 15:32 was 1.4K:400 $0.7250/$0.7496, 15:47 200:2K $0.7400/94. The perioed ended on 15:59's 2.5K $0.725 and 16:00's 1,407 sell for $0.725.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 84,465, 49.10% of day's volume, with a $0.7338 VWAP. The count seems reasonable for the volume. As common recently, the percentage of day's volume is high. The VWAP is slightly above the day's $0.7316. Combined with the change in buy percentages subsequent to the 10:26-ending period (see below), I suspect a lot of this was covering buys by shorters and/or MMs. I guess daily short percentage will be near the low end of my range if things are normal.
Note the silliness of the 10:26 period;s high of $0.76. It was a single 100-share trade, the only one for the day. But the MMs keep doing their thing and making money as their bots play this low-volume, apathetic market.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:51 2900 $0.7350 $0.7451 $2,145.96 $0.7400 1.69% 2.54%
10:26 55585 $0.7350 $0.7499 $40,915.59 $0.7361 32.31% 10.50% Incl 09:59 $0.7458 5,000 10:02 $0.7350 7,700
10:02 $0.7350 4,265 10:26 16,600 16,700
11:19 5400 $0.7362 $0.7600 $4,014.04 $0.7433 3.14% 13.68%
15:17 98364 $0.7125 $0.7400 $71,621.26 $0.7281 57.18% 46.66% Incl 11:25 $0.7350 5,225 11:45 $0.7296 9,400
13:04 $0.7299 5,800 14:12 $0.7298 6,700
15:07 $0.7299 7,075
16:00 7507 $0.7220 $0.7495 $5,504.21 $0.7332 4.36% 47.33%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Generally, the trend continues as we get lower opens, lows and closes as volume rises now. This suggests the down-leg is continuing to develop. Sans that single $0.76 trade our high would have been $0.7563 and the high movement would have been a half percent.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -1.36% 0.35% 1.00% -3.05% 19.14%
Prior -0.27% -5.33% -5.91% -0.29% 44.15%
On my minimal chart the range topped at the descending longer-term resistance (descending red line), penetrated the rising support (s suggested yesterday we would again test it), rising orange line, and closed barely above it.1s
If we discount the single 100-share $0.76 trade our high would have been $00.7563 and we would not have touched the descending resistance.
We also confirmed the break below the rising short-term support, rising green line, by closing below it. So it's offering no support now and could become a rising resistance if we quickly try to move up.
Our trade range was again completely below the mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band and the low is "pushing" the lower limit for the second consecutive day.
The fast EMA is below the slow EMA for the second day, a decidedly bearish omen.
The long-term descending resistance from my one-year chart is still applying pressure.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA gave up the slow rise begun eight days back and the 10-day continued to decline but is still above the 20-day. The spread is tight though and the 10-day should get below the 20 fairly quickly. If we hold here we'll get 10 days of declining 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 5 days of decline. If we hold here the 50 would decline 9 (was 9) days, and the 200-day would fall ~178 (was ~165) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI, MFI (exited overbought and untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R, full stochastic and ADX-related. There was improvement only in accumulation/distribution.
Today had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R (entered oversold), full stochastic (entered oversold), and ADX-related. All are below neutral but for MFI, which is above neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7146 and $0.8142 ($0.7061 and $0.8191 yesterday), continued converging. The mid-point is marginally rising as the lower limit rises more quickly than the upper limit declines.
All in, only the two oscillators in oversold suggest an possibility of a reversal right now. The rising volume on a down leg suggests more near-term downside is likely.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but the short percentage went far above my desired range (needs re-check) while buy percentage only rose to the level that indicates appreciation is possible - not "likely".
The spread widened. If we discount the single $0.76 trade it still widened and would be ~6.3%. During a down trend this suggests more near-term weakness.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the fourth day at 12 negative and 12 positive. Change since 01/24 is $0.0283, 4.02%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2301%, 0.3382%, 0.4031%, 0.3941%, 0.2967%, 0.4694%, 0.3371%, 0.2502%, 0.2845%, and 0.2139%. Uh-oh! Those movements of the averages are starting to give up the ghost.
All in, the short and buy percentage weigh heavily. They are suggesting more near-term weakness but the buy percentage suggests this may quickly change. Adding in the spread would counter that optimism though. The VWAP's gain today was minimal, but at least not down. I'm going with mostly sideways with a mild negative bias near-term based on this stuff.
Bill
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