Tuesday, February 28, 2017 9:21:00 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/27 2017 EOD
Everything I see right now suggests continued near-term weakening.
Well, some of our weakness subsequent to the rise attempts over the last month is explained by the Short Report 02/15/17 showing 533,531 short interest, a +21.02% increase!
We opened high, tanked to set the low by 9:39, recovered to near the opening high by 11:13 and went extremely low/no-volume flattish through about 14:30. The a drop about half-way to the low, extremely low/no-volume for about 15 minutes was followed by an extremely low/no-volume rise again to near-the early high and we closed right there. Buy percentages sucked all day (see below) but VWAP generally rose throughout all this.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 3K:900 $0.74/$0.7640.
09:30-09:44 opened the day with a 2,069 sell for $0.7500 & $0.75 x 45, $0.7525 x 200. B/a became 496:12K $0.75/$0.7640. Then came 9:32's b/a of 1.1K:1K $0.75/$0.7640, 9:34's 1.5K $0.7500/11/00/$0.7400/07, 9:36's b/a 300:7494 $0.7401/94 (bids jiggling 01 x 300, 00 x 5K), 9:37's 31K $0.7401/00/$0.73/$0.72 (22.6K blk)/$0.73, 9:38's 33.6K $0.7200/25/00/$0.7100 (incl 12K blk)/70/00, 9:39's 4.7K $0.7139 (4K)/00, 9:40's 800 $0.7139/00, 9:41's 5K $0.7115/30/75/$0.7249/42, 9:43's b/a 30K:3.5K $0.71/$0.7249, and the period ended on 9:44's 1.3K $0.7101, leaving 9:44's b/a at 400:3,5K $0.7101/$0.7249.
09:45-10:10 began an extremely low/no-volume climb back up doing 9:50's 1K $0.7195/78/$0.72, 9:51's 800 $0.7240/9, 9:52's b/a 1.3K:436 $0.7202/$0.73, 9:54's 1.6K $0.7294/$0.7300/97/00. That began extremely low/no-volume $0.7300/84. B/a at 9:55 was 100:200 $0.7301/97 (bids jiggling 01 x 100 02 x 1.9K), 10:00 300:200 $0.7302/97, 10:09 2.1K:300 $0.7305/97 (bids jiggling up/down). The period ended when 10:10's 100 hit $0.7409.
10:11-11:44, during the first eight no-trades minutes had b/a at 10:17 of 400:200 $0.7308/$0.7409. Trade began an extremely low/no-volume rise from $0.7305/30 on 10:19's 600 $0.7310. B/a at 10:32 was 400:100 $0.7302/$0.7450. 10:41's300 hit $0.7376/$0.7450. B/a at 10:49 was 2.2K:300 $0.7402/50, 11:04 2.4K:200 $0.7420/50 (bids jiggling 19/20). 11:14's100 hit $0.7483. B/a at 11:17 was 1K:100 $0.7457/80, 11:32 1.8K:1.1K $0.7453/99. The period ended when 11:44's 1.2K hit $0.7477 (1K)/85.
11:45-14:35, during three no-trades minutes had b/a at 11:47 of 1.3K:12.2K $0.7475/$0.75 (bids jiggling 75/6). Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7470/8 on 11:48's 1K $0.7478. B/a at 12:02 was 1.1K:100 $0.7451/78, 12:17 1.2K:100 $0.7455/78. Volume was interrupted by 12:23's 4.1K $0.7456/7 and 12:25's 5K $0.7478. B/a at 12:32 was 600:100 $0.7456/60, 12:47 1.2K:100 $0.7456/60, 13:01 800:5.7K $0.7467/78, 13:17 1K:100 $0.7469/70, 13:32 800:100 $0.7469/70, 13:47 1K:5.7K $0.7463/78 (bid qty jiggling), 14:02 800:5.7K $0.7454/78, 14:17 500:100 $0.7459/60, 14:32 400:100 $0.7459/60. The period ended on 14:35's 9K $0.7459.
14:36-16:00, after two no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7434/60 on 14:38's 12.5K $0.7459/58/50/49/00/$0.73. B/a at 14:47 was 700:100 $0.7410/60, 15:17 500:5.7K $0.7474/78, 15:32 300:100 $0.7470/7, 15:48 100:200 $0.7459/77 (offers jiggling qty 4.1K/200). The period and day ended with 16:00's 2,443 buy for $0.7478. There were no trades 15:54-:59.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 67,142, 46.50% of day's volume, with a $0.7245 VWAP. The count seems reasonable but the percentage of day's volume is quite high. The VWAP is well below the day's $0.7525. This is due to the largest percentage of them coming in the first 15 minutes, which had the lowest, and an extremely low, VWAP for the day. Keep in mind the latest short interest report linked above - it's likely the shorters were sitting on the bids and letting others sell them covering shares. This could also include the later larger trades as the price would still be attractive for covering buys.
Anyway, the buy percentage shows that even at these low prices there is little bullish sentiment and I do suspect any buying is shorters/MMs doing covering buys. This may supported by the fact that even though buy% rose minimally intra-day the VWAP made a substantial move.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart the big deal today is that we traded, and closed, completely below the short-term (adjusted) rising potential support (rising green line). Yesterday we had bottomed right on it and today opened, traded and closed below on rising volume. A close below tomorrow would confirm a breakdown and suggest we might be heading towards $0.66 low again.
There is another potential support though - the rising medium-term support (orange line) that was tested today. It held, but the rising volume, which is insufficient to suggest a capitulation bottom, suggests strength in the move lower and I expect we'll test it again tomorrow. Chances are good we'll move through it in a day or two I think. I had expected it to take some time before testing this line again, but that's obviously an over-optimistic outlook.
The fast EMA broke below the slow EMA, a decidedly bearish omen.
I noted yesterday the candlestick made a "Gravestone Doji", supposedly bearish but Bulkowski had noted that behavior only 51% of the time - essentially random. Too bad it couldn't randomize in the other direction today. I had also noted that the long-term descending resistance from my one-year chart was now applying pressure.
Our trading was completely below the mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band and our low is "pushing" the lower limit, usually leading to several days of this behavior. We traded below that long-term descending resistance too, so I'm expecting downward movement to continue near-term.
Yesterday I suspected that we wouldn't make this break down so quickly, but would do more sideways. FAIL! Just too many negative influences, I guess, combined with the (apparently) increased shorting and lack of sufficient fundamentals improvement to bring out the bulls, if any remain and are waiting in the wings.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA continued the slow rise begun seven days back but the 10-day began to decline but is still above the 20-day. The spread is tight though and the 10-day should get below the 20 fairly quickly. If we hold here we'll get 1 day (was 2) of rising 10-day SMA. After that it would be a continuous fall. I don't expect we'll hold here though. The 20-day would have 4 days of decline (was 1 day of rise) a return to ascending for 4 days. If we hold here the 50 would decline 9 (was 9) days, and the 200-day would fall ~165 (was ~125) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (exited overbought, untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R, full stochastic and ADX-related (although that one is more near flat as both positive and negative metrics weakened). Summing it up, all oscillators that had been trying to get more positive gave up the effort. Only the untrusted MFI 1swas above neutral and Williams %R and full stochastic were nearing oversold.
Today had weakening in RSI, MFI (exited overbought and untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R, full stochastic and ADX-related. There was improvement only in accumulation/distribution.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7061 and $0.8191 ($0.6999 and $0.8210 yesterday), continued converging, but gave up the near-static mid-point. It's now rising as the lower limit rises more quickly than the upper limit declines.
All in, the rising volume, break through short-term rising support, weak buy percentage in spite of intra-day rising VWAP, the big increase in short interest report through January end, and deteriorating oscillators lead me to think near-term continued weakness as most likely.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction but the short percentage was essentially flat and remains slightly below my desired range (needs re-check). The buy percentage remains at an extremely low level for the second consecutive day. These two combined currently suggests continued near-term weakening.
The spread narrowed a bit but is still too wide to indicate solidly in a steady-state consolidation. It currently supports continued near-term weakening as most likely.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the third day at 12 negative and 12 positive. Change since 01/23 is $0.0459, 6.72%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.3382%, 0.4031%, 0.3941%, 0.2967%, 0.4694%, 0.3371%, 0.2502%, 0.2845%, and 0.2139%.
All in, these suggest near-term continued weakening as most likely.
Bill
Everything I see right now suggests continued near-term weakening.
Well, some of our weakness subsequent to the rise attempts over the last month is explained by the Short Report 02/15/17 showing 533,531 short interest, a +21.02% increase!
We opened high, tanked to set the low by 9:39, recovered to near the opening high by 11:13 and went extremely low/no-volume flattish through about 14:30. The a drop about half-way to the low, extremely low/no-volume for about 15 minutes was followed by an extremely low/no-volume rise again to near-the early high and we closed right there. Buy percentages sucked all day (see below) but VWAP generally rose throughout all this.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 3K:900 $0.74/$0.7640.
09:30-09:44 opened the day with a 2,069 sell for $0.7500 & $0.75 x 45, $0.7525 x 200. B/a became 496:12K $0.75/$0.7640. Then came 9:32's b/a of 1.1K:1K $0.75/$0.7640, 9:34's 1.5K $0.7500/11/00/$0.7400/07, 9:36's b/a 300:7494 $0.7401/94 (bids jiggling 01 x 300, 00 x 5K), 9:37's 31K $0.7401/00/$0.73/$0.72 (22.6K blk)/$0.73, 9:38's 33.6K $0.7200/25/00/$0.7100 (incl 12K blk)/70/00, 9:39's 4.7K $0.7139 (4K)/00, 9:40's 800 $0.7139/00, 9:41's 5K $0.7115/30/75/$0.7249/42, 9:43's b/a 30K:3.5K $0.71/$0.7249, and the period ended on 9:44's 1.3K $0.7101, leaving 9:44's b/a at 400:3,5K $0.7101/$0.7249.
09:45-10:10 began an extremely low/no-volume climb back up doing 9:50's 1K $0.7195/78/$0.72, 9:51's 800 $0.7240/9, 9:52's b/a 1.3K:436 $0.7202/$0.73, 9:54's 1.6K $0.7294/$0.7300/97/00. That began extremely low/no-volume $0.7300/84. B/a at 9:55 was 100:200 $0.7301/97 (bids jiggling 01 x 100 02 x 1.9K), 10:00 300:200 $0.7302/97, 10:09 2.1K:300 $0.7305/97 (bids jiggling up/down). The period ended when 10:10's 100 hit $0.7409.
10:11-11:44, during the first eight no-trades minutes had b/a at 10:17 of 400:200 $0.7308/$0.7409. Trade began an extremely low/no-volume rise from $0.7305/30 on 10:19's 600 $0.7310. B/a at 10:32 was 400:100 $0.7302/$0.7450. 10:41's300 hit $0.7376/$0.7450. B/a at 10:49 was 2.2K:300 $0.7402/50, 11:04 2.4K:200 $0.7420/50 (bids jiggling 19/20). 11:14's100 hit $0.7483. B/a at 11:17 was 1K:100 $0.7457/80, 11:32 1.8K:1.1K $0.7453/99. The period ended when 11:44's 1.2K hit $0.7477 (1K)/85.
11:45-14:35, during three no-trades minutes had b/a at 11:47 of 1.3K:12.2K $0.7475/$0.75 (bids jiggling 75/6). Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7470/8 on 11:48's 1K $0.7478. B/a at 12:02 was 1.1K:100 $0.7451/78, 12:17 1.2K:100 $0.7455/78. Volume was interrupted by 12:23's 4.1K $0.7456/7 and 12:25's 5K $0.7478. B/a at 12:32 was 600:100 $0.7456/60, 12:47 1.2K:100 $0.7456/60, 13:01 800:5.7K $0.7467/78, 13:17 1K:100 $0.7469/70, 13:32 800:100 $0.7469/70, 13:47 1K:5.7K $0.7463/78 (bid qty jiggling), 14:02 800:5.7K $0.7454/78, 14:17 500:100 $0.7459/60, 14:32 400:100 $0.7459/60. The period ended on 14:35's 9K $0.7459.
14:36-16:00, after two no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7434/60 on 14:38's 12.5K $0.7459/58/50/49/00/$0.73. B/a at 14:47 was 700:100 $0.7410/60, 15:17 500:5.7K $0.7474/78, 15:32 300:100 $0.7470/7, 15:48 100:200 $0.7459/77 (offers jiggling qty 4.1K/200). The period and day ended with 16:00's 2,443 buy for $0.7478. There were no trades 15:54-:59.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 67,142, 46.50% of day's volume, with a $0.7245 VWAP. The count seems reasonable but the percentage of day's volume is quite high. The VWAP is well below the day's $0.7525. This is due to the largest percentage of them coming in the first 15 minutes, which had the lowest, and an extremely low, VWAP for the day. Keep in mind the latest short interest report linked above - it's likely the shorters were sitting on the bids and letting others sell them covering shares. This could also include the later larger trades as the price would still be attractive for covering buys.
It sure looks like the shorters are hammering us still, and again. I had thought that at these price levels the risk/reward would be unfavorable for additional shorting. But the short interest report, which was for the last couple weeks of January when we peaked at $0.93 on 1/31, makes that thought wrong. If there was any validity to it, why would they be shorting now? I can think of a case for that - weak volume makes it cheap to short and drive prices lower to do covering buys. Maybe, maybe not - we'll never know.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:44 80274 $0.7100 $0.7525 $57,850.62 $0.7207 55.59% 11.79% Incl 09:37 $0.7200 22,598 09:38 7,000
09:38 $0.7100 11,979 09:39 $0.7139 4,000
10:10 7836 $0.7176 $0.7409 $5,724.05 $0.7305 5.43% 13.70%
11:44 4778 $0.7302 $0.7485 $3,547.43 $0.7425 3.31% 14.29%
14:35 28031 $0.7455 $0.7478 $20,926.07 $0.7465 19.41% 18.13% Incl 12:25 $0.7478 5,000 14:35 $0.7459 9,000
16:00 22426 $0.7300 $0.7478 $16,614.16 $0.7408 15.53% 20.58% Incl 14:38 $0.7300 7,565
Anyway, the buy percentage shows that even at these low prices there is little bullish sentiment and I do suspect any buying is shorters/MMs doing covering buys. This may supported by the fact that even though buy% rose minimally intra-day the VWAP made a substantial move.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Well, it looks like the leg down is solidly beginning now as we have two consecutive days solidly down and today it was on rising volume.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -0.27% -5.33% -5.91% -0.29% 44.15%
Prior -4.81% 0.00% -0.02% -5.06% -30.25%
On my minimal chart the big deal today is that we traded, and closed, completely below the short-term (adjusted) rising potential support (rising green line). Yesterday we had bottomed right on it and today opened, traded and closed below on rising volume. A close below tomorrow would confirm a breakdown and suggest we might be heading towards $0.66 low again.
There is another potential support though - the rising medium-term support (orange line) that was tested today. It held, but the rising volume, which is insufficient to suggest a capitulation bottom, suggests strength in the move lower and I expect we'll test it again tomorrow. Chances are good we'll move through it in a day or two I think. I had expected it to take some time before testing this line again, but that's obviously an over-optimistic outlook.
The fast EMA broke below the slow EMA, a decidedly bearish omen.
I noted yesterday the candlestick made a "Gravestone Doji", supposedly bearish but Bulkowski had noted that behavior only 51% of the time - essentially random. Too bad it couldn't randomize in the other direction today. I had also noted that the long-term descending resistance from my one-year chart was now applying pressure.
Our trading was completely below the mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band and our low is "pushing" the lower limit, usually leading to several days of this behavior. We traded below that long-term descending resistance too, so I'm expecting downward movement to continue near-term.
Yesterday I suspected that we wouldn't make this break down so quickly, but would do more sideways. FAIL! Just too many negative influences, I guess, combined with the (apparently) increased shorting and lack of sufficient fundamentals improvement to bring out the bulls, if any remain and are waiting in the wings.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA continued the slow rise begun seven days back but the 10-day began to decline but is still above the 20-day. The spread is tight though and the 10-day should get below the 20 fairly quickly. If we hold here we'll get 1 day (was 2) of rising 10-day SMA. After that it would be a continuous fall. I don't expect we'll hold here though. The 20-day would have 4 days of decline (was 1 day of rise) a return to ascending for 4 days. If we hold here the 50 would decline 9 (was 9) days, and the 200-day would fall ~165 (was ~125) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (exited overbought, untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R, full stochastic and ADX-related (although that one is more near flat as both positive and negative metrics weakened). Summing it up, all oscillators that had been trying to get more positive gave up the effort. Only the untrusted MFI 1swas above neutral and Williams %R and full stochastic were nearing oversold.
Today had weakening in RSI, MFI (exited overbought and untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R, full stochastic and ADX-related. There was improvement only in accumulation/distribution.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7061 and $0.8191 ($0.6999 and $0.8210 yesterday), continued converging, but gave up the near-static mid-point. It's now rising as the lower limit rises more quickly than the upper limit declines.
All in, the rising volume, break through short-term rising support, weak buy percentage in spite of intra-day rising VWAP, the big increase in short interest report through January end, and deteriorating oscillators lead me to think near-term continued weakness as most likely.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction but the short percentage was essentially flat and remains slightly below my desired range (needs re-check). The buy percentage remains at an extremely low level for the second consecutive day. These two combined currently suggests continued near-term weakening.
The spread narrowed a bit but is still too wide to indicate solidly in a steady-state consolidation. It currently supports continued near-term weakening as most likely.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the third day at 12 negative and 12 positive. Change since 01/23 is $0.0459, 6.72%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.3382%, 0.4031%, 0.3941%, 0.2967%, 0.4694%, 0.3371%, 0.2502%, 0.2845%, and 0.2139%.
All in, these suggest near-term continued weakening as most likely.
Bill
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