Replies to post #27965 on Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 03/01 2017 EOD

Due to the low volume, intra-day odd behavior (well, not really uncommon recently - manipulation I think), and my unconventional stuff having conflicts (due to the 6-minute period mentioned below), I'm sticking with consolidation with a mild negative bias.

Today was somewhat typical with a high, but extremely low/no-volume, decline until that six-minute period did it's thing. Then we had an extremely low/no-volume flattish behavior until about noon. That began a volatile, on extremely low/no-volume, sideways move through the end of the day.

There were no pre-market trades.

B/a just before open was 100:100 $0.7201/$0.7639.

09:30-10:27 opened the day with a 2,009 buy for $0.7490. B/a just after open was 300:8.5K $0.73/6. Then came ... like yesterday, again nothing for a while. Then came 9:34's 6 $0.76 odd-lot, 9:39's b/a 1.6K:200 $0.73/$0.7496, 9:42's b/a 400:200 $0.7409/96, 9:46's 500 $0.7421, 9:47's 165 $0.7458, 9:48's 977 $0.7481/22 (200), 9:49's 300 $0.7420, 9:52's b/a 300:300 $0.7420/91. That began extremely low/no-volume $0.7400/96. B/a at 9:54 was 100:300 $0.7419/91. Price was interrupted by 9:59's 500 $0.7309. B/a at 10:00 was 5.1K:300 $0.7301/$0.7496, 10:02 100:200 $0.7401/96, 10:06 132:700 $0.7419/96. Volume was interrupted by 10:13's 5.2K $0.7453 (4.4K)/19/58 and 10:16's 1.9K $0.7496 (1.7K)/19. B/a at 10:16 was 132:400 $0.7419/96. The period ended on 10:27's 1K $0.7442.

10:28-12:08 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7352/$0.74, with slowly rising lows, on 10:28's 17.7K $0.74 (10K & 5K blks)/$0.7351/1/2/1. B/a at 10:34 was 200:1.4K $0.7351/$0.74, 10:47 300:600 $0.7364/$0.7496. Price was interrupted by 10:52's 166 $0.7496. B/a at 11:02 was 100:3K $0.7364/$0.74, 11:17 1.2K:3K $0.7371/$0.74, 11:47 6.2K:300 $0.7370/83, 12:02 6.2K:300 $0.7370/83. The period ended on 12:08's 102 $0.7385.

12:09-12:14, after four no-trades minutes, did a rapid rise on 12:13's 3.3K $0.7381/92/$0.74/$0.7550 (100) and 12:14's 20K $0.7475/47/50/75/49/75/50/49/50/98/$0.76 (16.4K blk). This short period turned around buy % and VWAP for the day! Good work by the MMs to take care of someone important I guess. This six minutes was 52.80% of all preceding volume. Check intra-day breakdown to see how apparently the MM(s?) collected shares at low VWAPs and then delivered then to a customer at a higher price, suggested by the big change in buy percentage.

12:15-13:10, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7509/84, with falling range, on 12:16's 700 $0.7509. B/a at 12:17 was 300:300 $0.7502/88, 12:47 800:6.5K $0.7402/$0.75 13:02 1.9K:1.2K $0.7418/$0.75. The period ended on 13:10's 675 $0.7499.

13:11-15:33, after two no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7414/99 beginning on 13:13's 100 $0.7414 before going to a wider spread $0.7405/$0.7506 on 13:35's 4.9K $0.7453/$0.757 and 13:37's 10.4K $0.7405/$0.7570. B/a at 13:17 was 1.9K:1K $0.7405/$0.75, 13:31 1.2K:900 $0.7451/$0.75 (bids jiggling 12K $0.7450), 13:47 300:1.8K $0.7405/70, 14:01 300:1.9K $0.7405/50, 14:16 2.6K:2.2K $0.7496/$0.7570, 14:32 100:1.3K $0.7405/$0.7570. At 14:36 range began narrowing with highs down to $0.7551 at 14:43 and lows up to $0.7434 at 14:36. B/a at 14:47 was 100:1.5K $0.7420/$0.7570, 15:02 1.1K:100 $0.7437/$0.7570, 15:17 100:288 $0.7425/$0.75, 15:32 2K:588 $0.7424/$0.75. The period ended on 15:33's 386 $0.7444/80.

15:34-15:59 began an extremely low/no-volume small push up on 15:34's 677 $0.75. B/a at 15:47 was 100:1.1K $0.7500/70. At 15:49 some volume came in and volatility began doing low/medium-volume $0.7403/$0.7507. B/a at 15:55 was 201:289 $0.7403/$0.7570, 15:59 1.6K:13.2K $0.7502/$0.76.

There were no AH trades.

Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 52,700, 39.61% of day's volume, with a $0.7510 VWAP. For the low volume today, the count seems reasonable but as has been common recently the percentage of day's volume is large. The VWAP is above the day's $0.7483.

 Ending  Period  Period  Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End 
 Period  Volume     Low    High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~% 
  10:27   15302 $0.7309 $0.7496    $11,397.26 $0.7448 11.50% 37.88% Incl 10:13 $0.7453 4,400 
  12:08   28821 $0.7351 $0.7496    $21,283.46 $0.7385 21.66% 21.80% Incl 10:28 $0.7400 5,000 10,000 
  12:14   23296 $0.7381 $0.7600    $17,619.17 $0.7563 17.51% 47.73% Incl 12:14 $0.7600 16,400 
  13:10   14659 $0.7422 $0.7584    $11,000.48 $0.7504 11.02% 55.07% Incl 12:51 $0.7500 4,200 4,200 
  15:33   30621 $0.7405 $0.7570    $22,974.30 $0.7503 23.02% 55.72% Incl 13:37 $0.7570 8,500 
  15:59   17309 $0.7403 $0.7570    $13,005.96 $0.7514 13.01% 52.54%

Note the change in buy percentage and the highest VWAP in the 12:14 period - highest of any period for the day. A good customer likely was being serviced here.

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

          __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_ 
 Today      1.24%   2.58%   0.00%   3.48% -22.66% 
 Prior     -1.36%   0.35%   1.00%  -3.05%  19.14%

Unlike yesterday when the $0.76 high was a single 100-share trade, today that $0.76 high was a 16.4K block trade. Today's movements look like an attempt to break the trend of the developing down-leg. However, as almost always, these supposed bullish indications generally appear only on very low volume, suggesting the have little or no strength to the upside.

Time for a new minimal chart.



On my minimal chart, the price range is fighting between several trend lines. Today closed above the long-term descending resistance (red line) and if we close above tomorrow we again have a confirmed break out, according to traditional TA. But do note the very low volume and that we've tried to push up and away several times recently but not been able to hold the gain. I had mentioned a couple days back that the rising support, lower orange line was likely to offer support and it did so the prior two days when it was tested. I said I thought this might prevent a return to test $0.66. So far so good.

Notice the fast EMA (yellow squiggly line) has flipped up but is still below the slow EMA (squiggly blue line). Whether we get a bullish indication be the fast rising above the slow seems to be dependent on the short-term descending resistance (descending orange line). It's a minimal new line so it strength isn't yet indicated by past tests.

Our trade range was again completely below the mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band but the low stopped "pushing" the lower limit after two consecutive days.

The long-term descending resistance from my one-year chart is still applying pressure. Price bumped up against it but couldn't close above yet.

On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA and the 10-day continued to decline and is still above the 20-day. The spread loosened a bit though and the 10-day is not as likely to quickly set below the 20. If we hold here we'll get 7 (was 10) days of declining 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 3 (was 5) days of decline. If we hold here the 50 would decline 7 (was 9) days, and the 200-day would fall ~175 (was ~178) days.

Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R (entered oversold), full stochastic (entered oversold), and ADX-related. All are below neutral but for MFI, which is above neutral.

Today had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, momentum, Williams %R (exited oversold), and full stochastic (exited oversold). Weakening occurred in MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related. Only MFI is above neutral.

The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7171 and $0.8136 ($0.7146 and $0.8142 yesterday), continued converging. The mid-point is marginally rising as the lower limit rises more quickly than the upper limit declines.

All in, if not for the volume I would be tempted to switch from consolidation with a mild negative bias to just consolidating, meaning bias could go either way. But that volume continues to suggest no strength in the up direction. Combined with the various trend lines, no evidence of strong market bullishness and the intra-day behavior giving, I think, a false bullish bias due to that 6-minute period, I have to think we still have a mild near-term negative bias. So we should return to making that down-leg.



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, and the short percentage remains well above my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage is in a range that mildly suggests near-term upside is likely. However, keep in mind how this was produced - a six-minute move that went "against the grain" of what was going on.

The spread contracted nicely and is an area where some regular consolidation with no big near-term movements is suggested. With volume so low though some scepticism is warranted as low-volume is often accompanied by high volatility, so don't count on this indication for now.

The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the fifth day at 12 negative and 12 positive. Change since 01/25 is $0.0296, 4.12%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2341%, 0.2301%, 0.3382%, 0.4031%, 0.3941%, 0.2967%, 0.4694%, 0.3371%, 0.2502%, and 0.2845%.

All in, the short and buy percentages are in conflict and combined with low volume would lead me to think there's little likelihood of near-term upside. The VWAP improvement today would be a plus if it hadn't been primarily the result of that one big 6-minute move followed by extremely low/no-volume for most of the rest of the day with a wide spread from about noon onward.

Bill