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Wednesday, February 15, 2017 11:51:48 AM
New All-time Highs Confirm Bull Market Alive and Well
By Almanac Trader
* February 15, 2017
Once again the bull market has entered an extended period of strength that for some appears to defy logic and reason. S&P 500 has not experienced a daily loss in excess of 1% since October 11, 2016. Nor has it had a 5% correction since last June. Both are protracted time spans, but historically both have been exceeded before and by sizable amounts. The current bull market also managed to go nearly four years without a 10% correction. The brutal bear market that preceded it was unusual within historical context so it is not out of the question that the following recovery and associated bull market would be accompanied with some atypical behavior.
Using a 20% decline as the definition of a bear market, there have been 11 bull markets including the current one and 10 bear markets since 1949. The previous ten bull markets lasted an average of 1770 calendar days and produced gains of 161.4%. Within these 11 bull markets there were 23 corrections ranging from 10% to 19.9% for an average of just slightly more than two corrections per bull market. The current bull market, at 2898 days old and 244.1% gain is above average in duration, magnitude and number of corrections. However, there have been longer bull markets with even more corrections.
In the following table, each bull market has been broken down and includes the corrections that occurred within it. The bull markets beginning and end dates and closing prices are included and are used to calculate the “Days Between Corrections.” In each row labeled “Bull End,” that bull market’s duration and gain is calculated.
The quickest correction was 18 calendar days in 1955 while the longest was 531 from September 1976 to March 1978. The longest the S&P 500 went without a 10% correction was 2553 calendar days from October 1990 until October 1997. The second longest streak without a correction occurred in the last bull market that ended in 2007 when the S&P 500 went 1673 days. The fewest number of days between corrections was 35 in 1974.
The S&P 500’s current streak of 368 days is less than the average amount of time between corrections and is not of major concern. The previous streak lasted 1326 calendar days and ended with the S&P 500 sliding 14.2% over 266 days. Past bullish periods were often devoid of corrections. Low volatility and extended age do not kill bull markets, crumbling economic data and/or geopolitical/exogenous events do.
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/157249701528/new-all-time-highs-confirm-bull-market-alive-and
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Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
By Almanac Trader
* February 15, 2017
Once again the bull market has entered an extended period of strength that for some appears to defy logic and reason. S&P 500 has not experienced a daily loss in excess of 1% since October 11, 2016. Nor has it had a 5% correction since last June. Both are protracted time spans, but historically both have been exceeded before and by sizable amounts. The current bull market also managed to go nearly four years without a 10% correction. The brutal bear market that preceded it was unusual within historical context so it is not out of the question that the following recovery and associated bull market would be accompanied with some atypical behavior.
Using a 20% decline as the definition of a bear market, there have been 11 bull markets including the current one and 10 bear markets since 1949. The previous ten bull markets lasted an average of 1770 calendar days and produced gains of 161.4%. Within these 11 bull markets there were 23 corrections ranging from 10% to 19.9% for an average of just slightly more than two corrections per bull market. The current bull market, at 2898 days old and 244.1% gain is above average in duration, magnitude and number of corrections. However, there have been longer bull markets with even more corrections.
In the following table, each bull market has been broken down and includes the corrections that occurred within it. The bull markets beginning and end dates and closing prices are included and are used to calculate the “Days Between Corrections.” In each row labeled “Bull End,” that bull market’s duration and gain is calculated.
The quickest correction was 18 calendar days in 1955 while the longest was 531 from September 1976 to March 1978. The longest the S&P 500 went without a 10% correction was 2553 calendar days from October 1990 until October 1997. The second longest streak without a correction occurred in the last bull market that ended in 2007 when the S&P 500 went 1673 days. The fewest number of days between corrections was 35 in 1974.
The S&P 500’s current streak of 368 days is less than the average amount of time between corrections and is not of major concern. The previous streak lasted 1326 calendar days and ended with the S&P 500 sliding 14.2% over 266 days. Past bullish periods were often devoid of corrections. Low volatility and extended age do not kill bull markets, crumbling economic data and/or geopolitical/exogenous events do.
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/157249701528/new-all-time-highs-confirm-bull-market-alive-and
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
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