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Boston Beer Company (SAM) reports Q3 2023 results, focusing on Beyond Beer category and brand growth
By: Investing | October 27, 2023
The Boston Beer Company (NYSE:SAM) reported its third-quarter earnings for 2023, revealing a decrease in depletion of 6% on a fiscal calendar basis and 3% on a comparable week's basis. The company's Twisted Tea brand showed strong performance while Truly Hard Seltzer continued to decline. Operational changes aimed at enhancing margins have resulted in gross margin improvements over the last two quarters, contributing to a gross profit of $869 million, as per InvestingPro data. The company remains cash-generative, repurchasing over $69 million of stock in 2023 and holding more cash than debt on its balance sheet, one of the key InvestingPro Tips for SAM.
Key takeaways from the call include:
The Boston Beer Company is focusing on the Beyond Beer category, planning to invest in the Twisted Tea and Truly brands and innovate across Beyond Beer categories. This strategy aligns with the company's strong return over the last three months, as indicated by InvestingPro data.
CFO Diego Reynoso narrowed the company's full-year guidance, expecting depletions and shipments to be down 5% to 7%. Revenue per barrel is expected to increase by 2% to 3%. This aligns with the company's recent revenue growth of 3.59%, as per InvestingPro data.
The company reported a net income of $45.3 million or $3.70 per diluted share and ended the quarter with $311 million in cash and an unused credit line of $150 million. This healthy financial position is reflected in the company's perfect Piotroski Score of 9, another InvestingPro Tip for SAM.
The company is testing an 8% ABV version of Twisted Tea, Twisted Tea Extreme, in convenience stores in five states.
The company plans to continue efforts in waste reduction and procurement savings to improve gross margins.
The company is working on maximizing internal capacity for manufacturing, aiming for 90-100% internal capacity, and optimizing its network of third-party manufacturers.
The Boston Beer Company is focusing its efforts on growing its core business while also exploring new innovations. The company's CFO, Diego Reynoso, discussed the financials for the third quarter and provided full-year guidance. Depletions for the quarter decreased by 6%, mainly due to declines in Hard Seltzers, offset by increases in Twisted Tea and Truly Vodka Soda. Shipment volume decreased by 2.5% compared to the prior year.
The company reported a gross margin increase to 45.7% for the quarter, driven by price realization and lower obsolescence and procurement savings. Advertising, promotional, and selling expenses decreased slightly, while general and administrative expenses increased.
During the call, the company also discussed its plans for Twisted Tea Extreme, an 8% ABV version of Twisted Tea currently being tested in convenience stores in five states. If the test is successful, the company may expand distribution next year.
Boston Beer also highlighted its success in building out the Twisted Tea brand in underdeveloped markets like California and Texas. The company mentioned its updated approach to innovation, focusing on testing new products and scaling them cautiously and slowly, discontinuing those that do not work.
Lastly, the company emphasized a disciplined approach to growth in the beer category, focusing on driving distribution rather than introducing new innovations. The company believes this approach maximizes growth for each SKU and avoids a chaotic introduction of new products. The company ended the call by announcing a Q4 call in February, where projections for 2024 will be discussed. For more insights and tips like these, consider exploring InvestingPro, which offers additional tips on SAM and other companies.
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Chevron (CVX) shares dip on Q3 earnings miss and acquisition announcements
By: Investing | October 27, 2023
Shares of Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) fell by 1.4% in premarket trading today, following the release of its Q3 financial results. The oil giant reported a net income of $6.526 billion, significantly lower than last year's $11.231 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) stood at $3.05, falling short of the projected $3.70 estimate. This is in line with an InvestingPro Tip which notes that Chevron's revenue growth has been slowing down recently.
The company's revenue also took a hit, sliding to $51.9 billion due to declining commodity prices and reduced refined product sales margins. This comes against a backdrop of a 14% year-to-date drop in Chevron's stock, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's rise of 7.8%. InvestingPro data shows that Chevron's stock has also been trading near its 52-week low, with a YTD price total return of -11.33%.
Despite the disappointing financial performance, Chevron reported a 4% increase in worldwide net oil-equivalent production. This uptick is attributed to the company's acquisition of PDC Energy (NASDAQ:PDCE) Inc. in August for $6.3 billion, which expanded its presence in the DJ and Permian Basins. Chevron, a prominent player in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry according to InvestingPro Tips, operates with a moderate level of debt and its cash flows can sufficiently cover interest payments.
In addition to its Q3 results, Chevron announced an all-stock deal to acquire Hess Corp (NYSE:HES)., a transaction valued at $53 billion. The acquisition is expected to further consolidate Chevron's position in the global energy market, although its impact on the company's stock performance remains to be seen.
On a positive note, Chevron has consistently increased its earnings per share and has raised its dividend for 35 consecutive years, as per InvestingPro Tips. The company's dividend yield stands at 3.9% according to InvestingPro data. These factors, along with the company's perfect Piotroski Score of 9, suggest a strong financial health that might appeal to long-term investors.
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Rogers Corporation (ROG) Q3 2023: Solid Performance Amid Economic Headwinds
By: Investing | October 27, 2023
Rogers Corporation (NASDAQ: ROG) reported a robust performance in Q3 2023 despite global economic challenges, highlighting progress in cost improvement and operational strengthening during its earnings call. The company exceeded its adjusted EPS guidance and reported a gross margin of 35.1%. With a strategic focus on the EV market, Rogers secured significant design wins in the Curamik power substrate and EV battery sectors.
Key takeaways from the call:
Q3 sales reached $229 million, with a slight decline in industrial sales offset by growth in portable electronics and renewable energy sectors.
The company anticipates increased sales in upcoming quarters, driven by design wins in the EV market and increased production capacity in ceramic power substrate manufacturing.
Q3 sales dipped less than 1% compared to the previous quarter, while gross margin improved to 35.1% and adjusted EPS was $1.24.
Rogers remains committed to driving further profitability improvements, with Q3 adjusted EBITDA margins reaching nearly 20%.
The company expects Q4 net sales to range between $215 million and $225 million, with a gross margin of 34% to 35%.
According to InvestingPro data, Rogers Corporation has an adjusted market capitalization of 2220M USD and a P/E ratio of 22.15, indicating a significant market presence. The company's revenue for the last twelve months was 927.52M USD, demonstrating its financial stability. The company's price has fallen significantly over the last three months, which could present an attractive buying opportunity for investors.
Rogers has made significant strides in areas within its control, such as securing new design wins, improving operating costs, and managing expenses. The company has expanded capacity in various product lines and improved its organizational efficiency. Despite slight declines in net sales due to lower volume and unfavorable currency fluctuations, gross margin improved due to cost savings and a favorable mix. The company also reported a 16% increase in adjusted net income compared to Q2, resulting in an adjusted EPS of $1.24.
InvestingPro Tips highlights that Rogers operates with a moderate level of debt and that its liquid assets exceed short-term obligations. This demonstrates the company's financial health and ability to meet its financial obligations. The tips also note that despite not paying a dividend to shareholders, analysts predict the company will be profitable this year. For more detailed tips and insights, consider subscribing to InvestingPro.
The company also discussed its plans for a new facility, set to be built in phases with an initial investment of $32 million to $35 million. This mindful growth strategy, matched with demand, is expected to meet customer demand for several years. With improvements in production and operational efficiencies, the company anticipates a three-year payback on its investments.
Rogers also expressed optimism for its portable electronics business, forecasting design wins in 2024 and 2025. The company's facility, which experienced a fire several years ago, is now operational and contributing to design wins. The company projects volume and mix, along with cost reduction efforts, to be the primary drivers for achieving its target model gross margin of 39%.
Despite handset sales hitting a 10-year low, the company remains optimistic about design wins for 2024 and '25, working closely with both local and Western OEMs in China. Expansion plans in China and other locations are reportedly on schedule. Having achieved its target gross margin of 35% earlier than expected, Rogers continues to focus on cost reduction efforts and volume increase to reach its 39% target model gross margin.
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Sallie Mae (SLM) Reports Strong Q3 2023 Results, Unveils Future Plans
By: Investing | October 27, 2023
Sallie Mae, the leading student loans company, reported robust third-quarter results in 2023, with increased demand from underclass students and a successful peak season. The company sold $1 billion of loans in October, keeping its earnings per share (EPS) guidance for the year intact. According to InvestingPro, Sallie Mae's management has been aggressively buying back shares, a move that signals the company's strong liquidity and capital positions. The proceeds from the loan sale will be used to buy back stock.
Key takeaways from the earnings call include:
Private education loan originations in Q3 2023 were $2.5 billion, a 4% increase from the same quarter in 2022.
Sallie Mae expects origination growth of 6-7% for the full year of 2023.
The company's net charge-off rate for the first 9 months of 2023 was 2.44%, better than expected. The net charge-off rate is anticipated to be around 2.5% for the year.
Steve McGarry will retire and be succeeded by Pete Graham as the new CFO.
The company provided updated guidance for diluted non-GAAP core earnings per common share and expenses for 2023.
During the earnings call, Pete Graham, the incoming CFO, expressed his enthusiasm for joining Sallie Mae and his alignment with the company's mission. The company further provided guidance for 2023, with diluted non-GAAP core earnings per common share expected to be between $2.55 and $2.65.
The company also addressed its future plans, stating that while they are not in the business of buying other portfolios, they would not completely rule out the possibility. They emphasized that their primary use of resources is forming new customer relationships rather than acquiring existing ones. They also hinted at a potential pivot to growing their balance sheet in 2024, stating that organic balance sheet growth could enhance their valuation, improve their multiple, and reward shareholders.
Sallie Mae executives also discussed the company's expense growth and future plans. They highlighted their strategy of attracting customers through organic and content-based channels and their disciplined approach to underwriting and selecting customers. They do not anticipate an increase in consolidations or prepayment speeds due to the competitive rates and benefits offered by the federal loan program.
Jonathan Witter of Sallie Mae indicated that a return to normalcy in the business is not expected in the near future. He also mentioned that universities have returned to a more normal enrollment and price increase environment. The call concluded with Witter thanking everyone and mentioning that a replay of the call would be available on the Sallie Mae website.
According to InvestingPro data, Sallie Mae's market cap is at 2980M USD with a P/E ratio of 9.85. The company's revenue for the last twelve months was 1079.99M USD, showing a decline of 35.36%. Despite this, analysts predict the company will be profitable this year, with a return on assets of 1.15%. For more insights, you can check out the InvestingPro Tips which provide additional tips and real-time metrics.
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The 10 Top/Bottom S&P 500 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | October 27, 2023
• Today (8:34 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in the S&P 500 Index.
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Today Intel Corporation (INTC) is the best performer in the DJIA
By: Thom Hartle | October 27, 2023
• Today (8:32 CST), the best performer in the DJIA is Intel Corporation. INTC.
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Today (8:31 CST), the majority of the Country Stock Index ETFs are higher
By: Thom Hartle | October 27, 2023
• Today (8:31 CST), the majority of the Country Stock Index ETFs are higher.
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Today (8:30 CST), equities mostly higher, FI mixed, metals mixed, crude & products mixed, nat gas higher, $ mostly lower
By: Thom Hartle | October 27, 2023
• Today (8:30 CST), equities mostly higher, FI mixed, metals mixed, crude & products mixed, nat gas higher, $ mostly lower.
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S&P 500 closes below its 3-year moving average.
By: Nautilus Research | October 27, 2023
• S&P 500 #spx $spy closes below its 3-year moving average.
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Bull of the Day: Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT)
By: Zacks Investment Research | October 27, 2023
Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT) is a leading industrial distributor that provides critical components, equipment, and value-added services to a wide range of industries, from manufacturing to utilities. With a vast network of suppliers and locations, AIT offers its customers access to a broad product portfolio, including bearings, power transmission components, fluid power components, and industrial supplies.
Applied Industrial Technology currently enjoys a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) rating, indicating upward trending earnings revisions and improving the near-term odds of a move higher in the stock. However, AIT stock has put up incredible returns over the long-term as well.
Over the last 25 years Applied Industrial Technology stock has compounded at an annual rate of 16.2%, double the average annual return on the S&P 500, and many multiples of total return.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Estimates Climb
Applied Industrial Technologies’ earnings estimate have been on a steady climb higher over the last three years, along with its stock price.
Over the last two months, current quarter earnings estimates have been revised higher by 0.5% and are expected to grow 5.1% YoY to $2.07 per share. FY23 earnings estimates have been increased by 1.3% over that same period and are forecast to climb 4.3% YoY to $9.13 per share.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Compelling Free Cash Flow
In the chart below we can see that AIT has an FCF yield of 5.3%, which is above the industry average of 3.5% and a relatively high percentage in general. Furthermore, AIT has shown that it has maintained a history of positive free cash flow indicating financial discipline. The company has grown its annual FCF by a CAGR of 12.5% annually.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Relative Strength
In what has developed into an increasingly more challenging and choppy market, AIT is showing considerable relative strength against the broad market. While the S&P 500 and leading stocks have been trading sideways to lower since mid-summer, Applied Industrial Technologies continues to hold up well, and has outperformed the market by almost 20% over that time.
Image Source: TradingView
Valuation
Applied Industrial Technologies is trading at a one year forward earnings multiple of 16.7x, which is below the industry average and in line with its 10-year median. Additionally, the company pays a dividend yield of 0.9% and has raised the payment by an average of 3.1% annually over the last five years.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bottom Line
Applied Industrial Technologies is an incredibly durable company with a very long history of earnings growth. Since 1994 it has increased its EPS from $0.34 per share to $8.75, an incredible compound annual growth rate of 11.9%. Because it creates products that have been, and will continue to be used for many decades, the earnings growth can be expected to persist.
Thus, any investor looking for a conservative investment, that also has near term bullish catalysts should most certainly consider Applied Industrial Technologies.
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After-hours stock movers: Intel jumps on beat, Enphase sinks
By: Investing | October 26, 2023
After-Hours Stock Movers:
Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH) 17% LOWER; reported Q3 EPS of $1.02, $0.01 worse than the analyst estimate of $1.03. Revenue for the quarter came in at $551.1 million versus the consensus estimate of $574.86M. Enphase Energy sees Q4 2023 revenue of $300-350M, versus the consensus of $601.24M.
DexCom Inc (NASDAQ:DXCM) 15% HIGHER; reported Q3 EPS of $0.50, $0.16 better than the analyst estimate of $0.34. Revenue for the quarter came in at $975M versus the consensus estimate of $939.19M. DexCom sees FY2023 revenue of $3.575-3.6M, versus the consensus of $3.539M.
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE:DECK) 10% HIGHER; reported Q2 EPS of $6.82, $2.42 better than the analyst estimate of $4.40. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.09M versus the consensus estimate of $960.62M. Deckers Brands sees FY2024 EPS of $22.90-$23.25, versus the consensus of $22.62. Deckers Brands sees FY2024 revenue of $4.025 billion, versus the consensus of $4.01B.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) 8% HIGHER; reported Q3 EPS of $0.41, $0.19 better than the analyst estimate of $0.22. Revenue for the quarter came in at $14.2B versus the consensus estimate of $13.53B. Intel sees Q4 2023 EPS of $0.44, versus the consensus of $0.31. Intel sees Q4 2023 revenue of $14.6-15.6B, versus the consensus of $14.35B.
Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF) 4% HIGHER; reported Q3 EPS of $4.45, $1.21 better than the analyst estimate of $3.24. Revenue for the quarter came in at $9.37B versus the consensus estimate of $9.21B.
Ford Motor (NYSE:F) 4% LOWER; reported Q3 EPS of $0.39, $0.08 worse than the analyst estimate of $0.47. Revenue for the quarter came in at $44B versus the consensus estimate of $44.05B. Full-Year 2023 Guidance Withdrawn Pending Ratification of Tentative U.S. Labor Agreement.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) 3% HIGHER; reported Q3 EPS of $11.36, $0.81 better than the analyst estimate of $10.55. Revenue for the quarter came in at $2.5B versus the consensus estimate of $2.47B.
Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) 1% HIGHER; Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded from Neutral to Overweight with a price target of $29.00.
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) 0.1% HIGHER; reported Q3 EPS of $0.94, $0.36 better than the analyst estimate of $0.58. Revenue for the quarter came in at $143.1B versus the consensus estimate of $141.53B. Amazon sees Q4 2023 revenue of $160-167B, versus the consensus of $157.2B.
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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) beats profit expectations as same store sales rise
By: investing | October 26, 2023
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) shares rose in after-hours trading after it beat expectations for third quarter earnings as same store sales rose 5%.
The burrito chain reported adjusted earnings per share of $11.36 and revenue of $2.47 billion, up 11.3% from the same time last year. Analysts expected earnings of $10.55 a share on revenue of $2.47 billion.
Shares were up more than 5% after-hours. They are up 30% so far this year.
Same store sales gained at the higher end of Chipotle’s previous forecast.
The company said it expects fourth quarter and full year 2023 same restaurant sales growth in the mid to high-single digit range.
For 2024, management is anticipating 285 to 315 new restaurant openings.
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Intel (INTC) Beats Expectations in Strong Q3, Stock Soars
By: investing | October 26, 2023
Computer processor maker Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) reported Q3 FY2023 results topping analysts' expectations, with revenue down 7.69% year on year to $14.2 billion. On top of that, next quarter's revenue guidance ($15.1 billion at the midpoint) was surprisingly good and 5.26% above what analysts were expecting. Turning to EPS, Intel made a non-GAAP profit of $0.41 per share, down from its profit of $0.59 per share in the same quarter last year.
Is now the time to buy Intel? Find out by reading the original article on StockStory.
Intel (INTC) Q3 FY2023 Highlights:
Revenue: $14.2 billion vs analyst estimates of $13.6 billion (4.12% beat)
EPS (non-GAAP): $0.41 vs analyst estimates of $0.22 ($0.19 beat)
Revenue Guidance for Q4 2023 is $15.1 billion at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $14.3 billion
Free Cash Flow of $943 million is up from -$2.73 billion in the previous quarter
Inventory Days Outstanding: 128, down from 131 in the previous quarter
Gross Margin (GAAP): 42.5%, in line with the same quarter last year
“We delivered a standout third quarter, underscored by across-the-board progress on our process and product roadmaps, agreements with new foundry customers, and momentum as we bring AI everywhere,” said Pat Gelsinger, Intel CEO. “We continue to make meaningful progress on our IDM 2.0 transformation by relentlessly advancing our strategy, rebuilding our execution engine and delivering on our commitments to our customers.”
Inventor of the x86 processor that powered decades of technological innovation in PCs, data centers, and numerous other markets, Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is the leading manufacturer of computer processors and graphics chips.
Processors and Graphics ChipsThe biggest demand drivers for processors (CPUs) and graphics chips at the moment are secular trends related to 5G and Internet of Things, autonomous driving, and high performance computing in the data center space, specifically around AI and machine learning. Like all semiconductor companies, digital chip makers exhibit a degree of cyclicality, driven by supply and demand imbalances and exposure to PC and Smartphone product cycles.
Sales GrowthIntel's revenue has been declining over the last three years, dropping by 11.2% on average per year. This quarter, its revenue declined from $15.3 billion in the same quarter last year to $14.2 billion. Semiconductors are a cyclical industry, and long-term investors should be prepared for periods of high growth followed by periods of revenue contractions (which can sometimes offer opportune times to buy).
Even though Intel surpassed analysts' revenue estimates, this was a slow quarter for the company as its revenue dropped 7.69% year on year. This could mean that the current downcycle is deepening.
Intel looks like it's on the cusp of a rebound, as it's guiding to 7.53% year-on-year revenue growth for the next quarter. Analysts seem to agree as consesus estimates call for 9.41% growth over the next 12 months.
Product Demand & Outstanding InventoryDays Inventory Outstanding (DIO) is an important metric for chipmakers, as it reflects a business' capital intensity and the cyclical nature of semiconductor supply and demand. In a tight supply environment, inventories tend to be stable, allowing chipmakers to exert pricing power. Steadily increasing DIO can be a warning sign that demand is weak, and if inventories continue to rise, the company may have to downsize production.
This quarter, Intel's DIO came in at 128, which is 18 days above its five-year average. These numbers suggest that despite the recent decrease, the company's inventory levels are higher than what we've seen in the past.
Key Takeaways from Intel's Q3 Results Although Intel, which has a market capitalization of $137 billion, has been burning cash over the last 12 months, its more than $25 billion in cash on hand gives it the flexibility to continue prioritizing growth over profitability.
We were impressed by how significantly Intel blew past analysts' revenue and EPS expectations this quarter. The Client Computing Group (CCG), which is the largest segment, outperformed revenue estimates by a wide margin. We were also glad its operating margin improved. Lastly, the company's Q4 outlook was comfortably ahead. Zooming out, we think this was a great quarter that shareholders will appreciate, especially in light of some lackluster quarterly performance in the last year or two. The stock is up 7.15% after reporting and currently trades at $34.79 per share.
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Amazon.com ( AMZN) earnings beat by $0.36, revenue topped estimates
By: Investing | October 26, 2023
Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) reported third quarter EPS of $0.94, $0.36 better than the analyst estimate of $0.58. Revenue for the quarter came in at $143.1B versus the consensus estimate of $141.53B.
Guidance
Amazon.com sees Q4 2023 revenue of $160.00B-$167.00B versus the analyst consensus of $157.20B.
Amazon.com's stock price closed at $119.57. It is down -9.56% in the last 3 months and up 7.92% in the last 12 months.
Amazon.com saw 24 positive EPS revisions and 2 negative EPS revisions in the last 90 days. See Amazon.com's stock price’s past reactions to earnings here.
According to InvestingPro, Amazon.com's Financial Health score is "fair performance".
Check out Amazon.com's recent earnings performance, and Amazon.com's financials here.
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Tesla $TSLA Over $3.86 million premium in to 11/03 $220 Calls
By: FLOWrensics | October 26, 2023
• $TSLA Over $3.86 mil premium in to 11/03 $220 CALLS.
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SPX Millions Worth of Put Sellers Hitting The Tape
By: Cheddar Flow | October 26, 2023
• $SPX Millions Worth of Put Sellers Hitting The Tape
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QQQ $5.3 Million Put • Strike: 345 • Expiration: 11/03/23
By: Cheddar Flow | October 26, 2023
• $QQQ $5.3M Put (Highly Unusual)
Strike: 345
Expiration: 11/03/23
*Above the Ask*
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The US economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years during the past three months
By: Cheddar Flow | October 26, 2023
• The US economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years during the past three months
The Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 4.9% during the period, faster than consensus forecasts.
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Looking Outside the Stock Market for Opportunities
By: Arthur Hill | October 26, 2023
Correlations rise during bear markets. This means more stocks participate in broad market declines than broad market advances. In other words, the odds are stacked against us when picking stocks in bear markets. Traders are better off looking outside of the stock market for opportunities.
The Perfchart below shows the performance for 10 asset-based ETFs over the last forty days. Seven of the ten are down with Silver, REITs, the S&P 500 SPDR and the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF leading the way lower. Three stand out. The DB Energy ETF (DBE), the Gold SPDR (GLD) and the Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) are all higher.
Chart Trader featured weekly charts for oil and gold in Thursday's report and video. Let's take a look at the US Oil Fund (USO), which is forming a short-term bullish continuation pattern. USO broke out with a big advance from July to September. The Trend Composite turned positive on July 24th and confirmed this trend reversal.
Short-term, the ETF became overbought in late September and fell back in early October. This decline, while sharp, held above the breakout zone so the breakout remained intact. USO went on to consolidate with a pennant, which is a short-term bullish continuation pattern. A breakout would signal a continuation higher and target a move to the upper 90s.
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Two Defensive Sectors are Outperforming - What Does This Mean?
By: Erin Swenlin | October 26, 2023
The only two sectors to close higher on Wednesday were in the defensive category, Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU).
We have already been watching XLP as it has established a short-term rising trend. What we aren't seeing is healthy participation...yet. We are seeing some expansion in stocks above their 20/50-day EMAs, but the Silver Cross Index is stagnant and below its signal line. Still, we do see this as one bright spot to consider in the current market environment if you want to be long.
XLU is experiencing a fresh bounce after losing ground out of the October top. In contrast, we have healthier participation as far as %Stocks > 20EMA. Yet, the Silver Cross Index hasn't budged. This new rally did put price back above the 20-day EMA and we see a PMO Surge above the signal line (bottom above the signal line). We like XLU's chances of continuing its current rally.
Conclusion: When defensive sectors lead the market it is bearish overall or could get worse. Seeing these two sectors as bullish should give us pause.
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Money managers Reduced their exposure to the US Equity markets to the lowest level since October 12, 2022
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NAAIM Exposure Index
October 26, 2023 
The NAAIM Number
24.82
Last Quarter Average
60.53
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Southwest Airlines (LUV) Stock Grounded as Travel Demand Cools
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | October 26, 2023
• Southwest Airlines reported worse-than-expected revenue for the third quarter
• Options bulls are viewing today's dip as an opportunity
Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE:LUV) stock is down 2.9% to trade at $22.91 at last check, after the company reported worse-than-expected third-quarter revenue. Though profits met analysts' estimates, cooling demand is prompting the airline to slow capacity growth next year.
The security is today trading at its lowest level in more than three years, with overhead pressure from the 20-day moving average guiding it consistently lower since late July. Currently pacing for its third-straight daily loss, LUV is down more than 30% n 2023.
Options bulls are buying the dip, with 6797 calls exchanged so far today, which is double the intraday average volume, compared to 4,259 puts. Most popular is the January 2024 30-strike call.
It's worth pointing out that LUV ranks high on the Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS), with a score of 99 out of 100. This suggests the security exceeded option traders' volatility expectations in the past 12 months.
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Chart of the Day: Eli Lilly (LLY) - Big Profits in Big Pharma
By: Barchart | October 26, 2023
The Chart of the Day belongs to the pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly (LLY). I found the stock by using Barchart's powerful screening functions to find stocks with the highest technical buy signals, highest Weighted Alpha, superior current momentum and having a Trend Seeker buy signal then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts for consistent price appreciation.
LLY Price vs Daily Moving Averages
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide. It offers Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, and Humulin U-500 for diabetes; and Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes. The company provides Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers, and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo for metastatic NSCLC, medullary thyroid cancer, and thyroid cancer; Tyvyt for relapsed or refractory classic Hodgkin's lymph and non-squamous NSCLC; and Verzenio for HR+, HER2- metastatic breast cancer, node positive, and early breast cancer. It offers Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis. The company offers Cymbalta for depressive disorder, diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain, generalized anxiety disorder, fibromyalgia, and chronic musculoskeletal pain; Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache; and Zyprexa for schizophrenia, bipolar I disorder, and bipolar maintenance. Its Bamlanivimab and etesevimab, and Bebtelovimab for COVID-19; Cialis for erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia; and Forteo for osteoporosis. The company has collaborations with Incyte Corporation; Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; AbCellera Biologics Inc.; Junshi Biosciences; Regor Therapeutics Group; Lycia Therapeutics, Inc.; Kumquat Biosciences Inc.; Entos Pharmaceuticals Inc.; and Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Barchart's Opinion Trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 20 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com website when you read this report.
Barchart Technical Indicators:
• 100% technical buy signals
• 73.30+ Weighted Alpha
• 67.31% gain in the last year
• Trend Seeker buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 7 new highs and up 6.42% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 54.82%
• Technical support level at $582.85
• Recently traded at $586.37 with 50 day moving average of $567.75
Fundamental Factors:
• Market Cap $562 billion
• P/E 73.93
• Dividend yield .74%
• Revenue expected to grow 17.50% this year and another 16.70% next year
• Earning estimated to increase an additional 88.10% next year and continue to compound at an annual rate of 26.75% for the next 5 years
Analysts and Investor Sentiment -- I don't buy stocks because everyone else is buying but I do realize that if major firms and investors are dumping a stock it's hard to make money swimming against the tide:
• Wall Street analyst gave15 strong buy, 4 buy, 5 hold and 3 sell opinions on the stock
• Analysts' price targets are between $340 and $710 with a consensus of $604
• The individual investors following the stock on Motley Fool voted 1,255 to 103 for the stock to beat the market with the more experienced investors voting 318 to 14 for the same result
• Value Line rates it an above average 2
• CFRAs MarketScope rates it 4 star buy with a price target of $634
• 95,220 investors monitor the stock on Seeking Alpha
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Today's 4 Stock Market Movers: $FLEX $IBM $F $META
By: Barchart | October 26, 2023
• Today's 4 Stock Market Movers: $FLEX $IBM $F $META
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AbbVie $ABBV $3.3 Million OTM Call • Strike: 150 • Expiration: 1/19/24
By: Cheddar Flow | October 26, 2023
• $ABBV $3.3M OTM Call (Unusual)
Strike: 150
Expiration: 1/19/24
*Above the Ask*
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Nearing 500 days since the small-cap Russell 2000 last made a 52-week high. That's closing in on the worst drought in the index's history.
By: Jason Goepfert | October 26, 2023
• Nearing 500 days since the small-cap Russell 2000 last made a 52-week high.
That's closing in on the worst drought in the index's history.
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The 10 Top/Bottom NASDAQ 100 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | October 26, 2023
• Today (8:34 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in the NASDAQ 100 Index.
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S&P 500 % constituents above their 200 DMAs modal analysis ... extreme, but not EXTREME...
By: Nautilus Research | October 26, 2023
• SP500 % constituents above their 200 DMAs modal analysis ... extreme, but not EXTREME....
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Analyst: Bank Stock Barclays (BCS) Subject to Regional Uncertainties
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | October 26, 2023
• BofA Global Research downgraded Barclays stock to "underperform"
• BCS is on track for its seventh-straight loss today
Shares of U.K.-based Barclays PLC (NYSE:BCS) are 1.8% lower premarket, after BofA Global Research downgraded the bank stock to "underperform" from "neutral" and slashed its target price.
The Wall Street analyst cited uncertainty over the region's financial restructuring and near-term capital distribution risks. This comes after Barclays said it would begin another round of restructuring in the coming months, an effort to mitigate margin pressure stemming from competition in the savings market as well as lagging investment bank performance.
On the charts, BCS is poised to open at its lowest level since March, and extend its losing streak to seven. The stock is off by 16.5% year-to-date, with nearly all of these losses piling up in the last month.
More downgrades and/or price-target cuts could be due. Of the five covering brokerages, three still rate BCS a "buy" or better, while the 12-month consensus price target of $7.31 is a 14.2% premium to Wednesday's close.
Now may be the time to speculate on the stock's next move with options. BCS' Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 36% sits in the relatively low 28th percentile of its 12-month range. In other words, options traders are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment.
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Historically, US stocks are entering a seasonally bullish period, associated with positive performance and upward momentum
By: Isabelnet | October 26, 2023
• S&P 500
Historically, US stocks are entering a seasonally bullish period, associated with positive performance and upward momentum.
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Bull of the Day: MillerKnoll (MLKN)
By: Zacks Investment Research | October 26, 2023
MillerKnoll, Inc. (MLKN) is not expecting a recession in North America as its business improves. This Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) is forecast to grow fiscal 2024 earnings by the double digits.
MillerKnoll owns iconic brands in both office and residential furniture including Herman Miller, Knoll, Colebrook Bosson Saunders, Design Within Reach, Edelman, HAY, Maharam, Muuto, NaughtOne, and many others.
On the residential furniture side, it operates retail stores globally and sells online.
A Big Beat in Fiscal Q1
On Sep 26, MillerKnoll reported its fiscal first quarter 2024 results and beat the Zacks Consensus by $0.16, or 76.2%. Earnings were $0.37 versus the consensus of $0.21. It was the third beat in a row.
Sales declined 14.9% on a reported basis and 6.9% organically, to $917.7 million. Orders in the quarter were 9.8% lower on a reported basis and 1.3% lower on an organic basis to $913.7 million. The relative decline in organic orders was an improvement compared to the 7.8% year-over-year organic decline posted in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023.
Gross margin improved, however, by 450 basis points year-over-year to 39%. It was mainly driven by the realization of price optimization strategies, moderating input costs and benefit from our ongoing integration efforts.
In the Americas Contract segment, net sales were down 8.7% year-over-year on a reported basis and down 1.7% organically to $490.4 million. While new orders were down 4.7% year-over-year on a reported basis and up 2.1% organically to $487.3 million.
The growth in organic orders was also a sequential improvement when compared to the prior quarter, which was the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023. MillerKnoll said that month-to-month trends aren't consistent, but the general trend over the past three quarters has been positive.
It remains confident of the improving macro-economic conditions. Additionally, companies continue to shift back to return-to-office practices.
The residential side of the business remains challenged, however, due to the weak housing market. Global retail sales were down 26% on a reported basis to $199 million, and down 13.6% organically.
"While the specter of economic recession in North America appears to be fading, the housing market remains under pressure," said Andi Owen, CEO.
"Additionally, we are facing difficult macroeconomic conditions in both China and Europe," she added.
Raised Full Year EPS Guidance
The trend is MillerKnoll's friend. It raised full year earnings guidance to a range of $1.85 to $2.15. That was above the Zacks Consensus.
Not surprisingly, the Zacks Consensus has jumped to $2.07 from $1.80 in the last 30 days. That is earnings growth of 11.9% as the company made $1.85 in fiscal 2023. It is also on the higher end of the new guidance.
Shares Turn Around
Shares of MillerKnoll have been on quite the ride the last 5 years as they got hit in the pandemic due to work-from-home, rallied on the reopening, and then sold off into 2023.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
But over the last 6 months, share are up 31.3%.
Shares are still cheap, however, on a P/E basis, trading at just 11.1x forward earnings.
Given the growth expected, it has a PEG ratio of just 0.9. A PEG under 1.0 usually indicates a company has both growth and value. That's a rare combination.
MillerKnoll generated $130.9 million in free cash flow in the quarter. It repaid $66 million of debt and also repurchased 1.7 million shares for $31.7 million.
It also pays a dividend, currently yielding 3.3%.
For investors looking for a company that is seeing brighter days ahead for its business, MillerKnoll should be on your short list.
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The AAII Investor Sentiment
By: AAII | October 26, 2023
Bullish 29.3%
Neutral 27.5%
Bearish 43.2%
• Historical 1-Year High
Bullish: 51.4%
Neutral: 39.9%
Bearish: 52.3%
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Late October Low Lines Up
By: Almanac Trader | October 25, 2023
I’ve been banging my seasonal weakness drum through Q3 warning of Octoberphobia, volatility, late-October lows and turnarounds. Today’s negative action aligns with that narrative. Best Six Months start next week. Rising 10-year yields, some notable earnings season misses and turmoil in the Mideast have conspired with seasonal weakness to knock the market down. But at least we now have a Speaker of the House.
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PepsiCo, Inc. $PEP Unusual *SIZE* ~ 3.30 million shares at $162.51 #darkpool activity ~55% of 30D Avg Vol
By: FLOWrensics | October 25, 2023
• $PEP Unusual SIZE #darkpool activity ~ 3.30 million shares at $162.51 ~55% of 30D Avg Vol.
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Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin's Price Doubles in 2023
By: Jennifer Nash | October 25, 2023
This weekly update tracks some of the largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin and ether. We've also included XRP, as it was one of the largest cryptocurrencies when this series began. According to Wikipedia, a cryptocurrency is "a digital asset designed to work as a medium of exchange that uses cryptography to secure its transactions, to control the creation of additional units, and to verify the transfer of assets." Cryptocurrency is a young asset class that has developed a reputation for price volatility however there are ETFs that could help mitigate risk for those investors seeking crypto exposure.
Bitcoin was the world's first cryptocurrency and decentralized digital currency. The first bitcoin transaction occurred in early 2009 and has since grown worldwide. Ether is another cryptocurrency run on the Ethereum blockchain platform and has the second largest market share, despite being the newest of the three with its launch in July 2015. XRP, which is owned by Ripple and launched in 2012, was one of the larger cryptocurrencies for some time until new coins joined the market. We've included it here for reference.
The third-largest market share of cryptocurrency, tether, is a token "backed by actual assets" which includes one US dollar, one euro, or loans to affiliate companies and is controlled by the owners of Bitfinex. It's a controversial cryptocurrency due to its alleged manipulation of crypto pricing. It is called a "stable coin" because it was designed to always be worth $1.00. We do not chart it because its price rarely changes.
The Latest Crypto Data (through October 24, 2023)
Bitcoin's price jumped above $28,000 for the first time since August and is now up ~70% year to date. Some market observers are optimistic that the digital currency can continue to build on the recent, modest gains as well as provide some protection against inflation.
XRP's price also jumped this week, reaching its highest level in over two months. XRP is currently up ~62% year to date.
Ether's price rose to its highest level since August and is now up ~48% year-to-date.
An index has been created in order to chart these three cryptocurrencies together, considering their significantly different pricing histories. Ether tops the chart, i.e., the price of an ether has changed the most out of all three cryptocurrencies.
ETFs associated with cryptocurrencies include: ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITI), VanEck Ethereum Strategy ETF (EFUT), and Bitwise Ethereum Strategy ETF (AETH).
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Nasdaq Composite Index Index (COMP): Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 25, 2023
NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 1313987 and is trading up about 25% for the year from last year's settlement of 1046648. Immediately, this market has been declining for going into 2023 reflecting that this has been only still a bearish reactionary trend.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash included a rally from 2009 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been in a bearish trend since the high moving into the low in 2022 for a declining trend during that year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 1320408.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of September 25th at 1296316, which was down 10 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 17th. We have seen the market decline further this week dropping to 1284883 and we are back above resistance which is beginnjing to now form initial support at 1297743. The market has bounced from the low this week to close stronger at the immediate close of this session. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in July at 1444655. After a four month rally from the previous low of 1356725, it made last high in July. Since this last high, the market has corrected for four months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in October, this market has fallen to a new low reaching 1284883.
Critical support still underlies this market at 1300240 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.
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Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA): Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 25, 2023
The Dow Jones Industrials closing today at 3314138 is immediately trading down about 0.01% for the year from last year's settlement of 3314725. Presently, this market has been rising for 13 years going into 2023 suggesting that this has been a bull market trend which was confirmed by electing all four of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low made back during 2009. Nevertheless, this market has been in a bullish postureGiven the length of this rally, there is a risk of a temprary high. Therefore, some caution is required so focus of the yearly turning points and the monthly timing models.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the Dow Jones Industrials included a rally from 2009 moving into a major high for 2022, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the Dow Jones Industrials, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 3317438 and support forming below at 3294156. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 16th at 3414763, which was up 2 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. So far, this week is has moved to the downside penetrating last week's low of 3311812 reaching 3289219. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of October 16th reaching 3414763 failed to exceed the previous high of 3507021 made back during the week of August 28th. That rally amounted to only seven weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
After closing above last year's low of 2985630 when it was an outside reversal to the downside yet it did close lower. This immediate year, the market did open higher, thus far, but this market remains as an inside trading year. This market is still above the normal trading yearly envelope where the top remains at 2698088. The last Breakout Mode indicator took place in during 2014. The last Crash Mode indicator took place in during 2009.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market has made a low following the previous high of August at 3330630. The fact that the market for September close below the previous month's low is a sign of near-term weakness with a possible decline into the next turning point on the Array. So far here in October this market has fallen to a new low reaching 3284694.
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Global Daily Capital Flows
By: Marty Armstrong | October 25, 2023
• Most Recent Daily Capital Flows:
• USA Inflows 1.46%
• Canada Inflows 0.37%
• Mexico Inflows 0.63%
• China Outflows 0.09%
• Japan Inflows 0.12%
• Germany Outflows 0.74%
• France Outflows 0.74%
• Italy Outflows 0.74%
• United Kingdom Outflows 0.72%
• Brazil Outflows 0.40%
• Australia Outflows 0.32%
• Russia Outflows 0.86%
• India Outflows 0.07%
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Consumer staples (XLP) have been a disaster in 2023 and everybody hates them (except corporate insiders). But the % of stocks below 50-day MA just dropped below 3%. Which raises the question: Is this a good time to be hating consumer staples?
By: Jay Kaeppel | October 25, 2023
• Consumer staples have been a disaster in 2023 and everybody hates them (except corporate insiders). But the % of stocks below 50-day MA just dropped below 3%. Which raises the question: Is this a good time to be hating consumer staples?
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Combined Estimated Long-Term Fund Flows and ETF Net Issuance
By: ICI | October 25, 2023
• Washington, DC; October 25, 2023—Total estimated outflows1 from long-term mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were $11.86 billion for the week ended October 18, 2023, the Investment Company Institute reported today.
Equity funds2 had estimated outflows of $5.10 billion for the week, compared to estimated outflows of $10.60 billion in the previous week. Domestic equity funds had estimated outflows of $3.39 billion, and world equity funds had estimated outflows of $1.71 billion.
Hybrid funds2—which can invest in stocks and fixed-income securities—had estimated outflows of $2.42 billion for the week, compared to estimated outflows of $2.18 billion in the previous week.
Bond funds2 had estimated outflows of $3.09 billion for the week, compared to estimated inflows of $614 million during the previous week. Taxable bond funds saw estimated outflows of $2.33 billion, and municipal bond funds had estimated outflows of $759 million.
Commodity funds2—which are ETFs (both registered and not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940) that invest primarily in commodities, currencies, and futures—had estimated outflows of $1.26 billion for the week, compared to estimated outflows of $463 million in the previous week.
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SPX - A lot going on around 4,160............
By: Nautilus Research | October 25, 2023
• #spx $spx - A lot going on around 4,160............
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Innoviz Technologies $INVZ $2.3 million block into the 04/19/24 $2 Calls
By: FLOWrensics | October 25, 2023
• $INVZ $2.3 million block into the 04/19/24 $2 CALLS
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Alphabet Earnings, Rising Bond Yields Drag Nasdaq
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | October 25, 2023
• The Nasdaq is down triple digits
• The Dow is sporting a firm midday lead, however
The Nasdaq is sporting a hefty triple-digit deficit at midday, as Alphabet's (GOOGL) disappointing cloud revenue and rising bond yields weigh on tech stocks.Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is modestly lower, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is higher. Traders are also unpacking new home sales data, which totaled 759,000 in September, well above the previous month's reading as well as analyst estimates.
Continue reading for more on today's market, including:
• Peer warning sends PayPal stock to 6-year lows.
• Gap stock jumps on analyst praise.
• Plus, options traders eye TXN's lows; LRN hits record highs; and VICR downgraded.
Options traders are targeting Texas Instruments Inc (NASDAQ:TXN), after the company's third-quarter revenue miss and dismal fiscal fourth-quarter forecast, with no fewer than 16 analysts slashing their price targets. So far, 23,000 calls and 13,000 puts were exchanged, or five times the average daily options volume. The January 2024 155-strike call is the most popular, with positions being opened there. TXN is now down 3.3% at $142.09 at last check, and trading at three-year lows. On track for its eighth-straight weekly loss, with pressure at its 20-day moving average, the equity is down 14.4% in 2023.
The New York Stock Exchange's (NYSE) Stride Inc (NYSE:LRN) is soaring to record highs today, after the company posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results -- including record revenue -- and raised its full-year forecast. At last glance, LRN was up 17.8% at $52.40, up 68% since the start of the year.
Vicor Corp (NASDAQ:VICR) is down 27.6% at $38.57, sinking to over three-year lows, despite the electrical equipment concern's stronger-than-anticipated third-quarter results. Needham downgraded the security to "hold" from "buy," while Craig-Hallum lowered its price target to $65 from $80. On the short sell restricted (SSR) list today, the equity is down 27.7% in 2023.
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Make the Right Call on this Stock Exchange Operator Cboe Global Markets (CBOE)
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | October 25, 2023
• Cboe Global Markets stock is fresh off a record high
• Short interest rose 85% from November to September
Cboe Global Markets Inc (BATS:CBOE) stock hit an all-time high on Oct.18, following news that the company secured commitments from a broad range of participants to begin offering equity options in Europe as soon as November, pending regulatory approvals.
Though the equity then pulled back slightly amid broader market headwinds, it has been trending since its breakout above $145, which is five times its initial public offering (IPO) price and the site of a trendline connecting higher highs since 2018.
The brokerage bunch is skeptical despite the stock’s strong year-to-date and year-over-year returns. In fact, 10 of the 18 analysts in question carry a tepid "hold" or worse rating. Plus, short interest rose 85% from November to September, with shares adding 25% in this period. This indicates shorts are underwater and could get squeezed out.
It’s also worth noting that implied volatility (IV) on our recommendation stands at 19%. Our recommended December call has a leverage ratio of 11.7, and will double on a 10.5% pop in the underlying shares.
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Gold Markets Continue to Consolidate After Recent Run Higher
By: Christopher Lewis | October 25, 2023
• Gold markets have shown a little bit of positivity early during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of volatility.
Gold Market Technical Analysis
Gold markets have rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of back-and-forth behavior. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to look at the $2000 level above which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where you would expect to see a lot of pressure. If we can break above the area on a daily close, that would obviously show a lot of bullish pressure.
Looking at all of this choppy volatility, it’s obvious that the market is trying to sort out whether or not it can continue the upward pressure, and we should probably keep an eye on interest rates and the US dollar as it can cause quite a bit of pressure on this market. If we were to break down below the bottom of the hammer from the trading session on Tuesday, then the market is likely to go down to the $1950 level. If we break above the shooting star from last Friday, then obviously that would be very bullish, and it could open up a move to the $2050 level, perhaps even higher than that.
Keep in mind that gold has a little bit of a safe haven bid in it at the moment, due to the geopolitical issues coming out of the Middle East, but ultimately, it’s likely that the market will have to continue to pay close attention to news coming out of that region, and of course the bond markets themselves. All things being equal, this is a scenario where market participants continue to see a lot of danger, so you should be very cautious with your position sizing, this is typical with gold, but especially so in this type of environment. The market is going to continue to see a lot of external forces, and therefore you have to look at this as a situation where the markets will continue to shake out the “weak hands” in the marketplace. At this point, it looks more like a “buy on the dip” sideways market, but if we get some type of good news coming out of the Middle East, you could see gold get hammered.
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IWM $1.0 Million Put • Strike: 162 • Expiration: 11/17/23
By: Cheddar Flow | October 25, 2023
• $IWM $1.0M OTM put
Strike: 162
Expiration: 11/17/23
*Above the Ask*
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SPY $1 Million Put • Strike: 401 • Expiration: 11/10/23
By: Cheddar Flow | October 25, 2023
• $SPY $1M Far OTM Put (Highly Unusual)
Strike: 401
Expiration: 11/10/23
*Above the Ask*
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Today's 4 Stock Market Movers: $VRT $AFRM $TXN $CSGP
By: Barchart | October 25, 2023
• Today's 4 Stock Market Movers: $VRT $AFRM $TXN $CSGP
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