Market Direction and Stock Trends

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Fishy Sentiment Readings on the Road
By Almanac Trader

* February 14, 2017

After 11 straight days on the road I am not minding the recent snow and gale-force winds today in the NYC Metro area. Adventurous by nature, travelling suits me fine. Meeting clients and readers and taking the pulse of market sentiment on the ground is always a plus.

My journey began on February 1 with a visit to our friends at Probabilities Fund Management LLC in classy San Diego, renowned for its perennial “laboratory conditions” climate. The folks at PFM are arguably one of the largest buyers of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Ever since Founder and CIO Joe Childrey took the Almanac on an African Safari with him for last minute reading material, about 20 years ago, they’ve been huge fans and staunch market pattern recognition proponents and trend following advocates. Market sentiment in San Diego and at PFM was relatively bullish for the short term though much more cautious further out.

After a quick stop in Orange County CA and Los Angeles I swung east to the west coast of sunny Florida. Early last week I gave a presentation to the local AAII Naples/Bonita Springs Investor Education Group. This predominantly seasoned group of investors was more bearish and skeptical of what to expect of the new President Trump. Hopefully some of our timely seasonal trade setups in Oil & Gas and Utilities and market cycle analysis gave them some solace and sustenance to shore up their portfolios for near term volatility and the long haul.

I then sojourned north and east to The MoneyShow Orlando for three days of presentations, pressing the flesh, stump the speaker Q/A and industry networking. The show was the attendance I have seen since the Great Recession and folks were clamoring more than ever for an edge on the market. However, I sensed a greater level of fear and worry about the future of the stock market, especially in the near term, and I high level of concern about what President Trump might do next.

So, my big takeaway from this trip is that sentiment is deceivingly cautious. Official contrary sentiment readings that we track like Put/Call and Investors Intelligence % Advisors Bullish/Bearish have been and remain at rather overly bullish levels, but off the radar folks are highly skeptical and worried that the market could unravel at the drop of a hat. While the market usually drops unexpectedly into correction, with some much fear and loathing simmering below the surface, I suspect this rally still has legs…. At least for the rest of Trump’s first 100 days and through 2017 Q1 & Q2.

http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/157216200118/fishy-sentiment-readings-on-the-road

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