HCV world-wide sales for 2015:
GILD -19,140 - 84.3%
ABBV - 1,639 - 7.2%
BMY - 1,603 - 7.1%
JNJ - 321 - 1.4%
TOTAL - 22,703
I still expect 2016 HCV sales to be flat or up slightly.
Japan should be huge - 4Q15 run-rate rate is about $6B ($1.5Bx4) - up from <$2B in '15. Dollar value will fall in 2Q16, but still big numbers.
The EU numbers should be flat, or slightly up from '15. Annual budgets should kick again, plus more countries.
US will probably be down significantly. Recent script numbers continue to fall a lot - mostly Harvoni - my guess is primary use of 8 weeks versus 12 week.
As to split between companies, JNJ should be nothing, and BMY should be down due to less use in Japan. MRK should take some share, but not as much as ABBV. VA may come back, but not enough to have real growth. I hope script growth returns, but I don't really see it. It looks more and more like '15 might actual have been the top of the market. It doesn't mean that there will be a big cliff, or that there won't be a long tail, but it would mean that GILD got (or will get in the next year or two) a huge amount of the total market. JMO.
