HCV world-wide sales for 2015 and first half of 2016:
--------2015---------------2016-------
GILD -19,140 - 84.3% -- 8,280 - 82.2%
ABBV - 1,639 - 7.2% -- 833 - 8.1%
BMY - 1,603 - 7.1% -- 972 - 9,4%
JNJ - 321 - 1.4% -- 75 - .7%
MRK --------------- 161 - 1.5%
TOTAL - 22,703 -- 10,322
So trend of total is down for 2016. I had expected flat or slightly up. (a) Harvoni 8 week treatment, (b) MRK entry and continued discounting, (c) Japan price decrease, (d) more VA, prisons, and other public payers, and (e) most importantly, fewer people being treated seem to be the most important reasons that revenue is going down.
ABBV actually has higher percentage of market, though it's US sales have fallen significantly, and will continue to fall. BMY has continued to have a significant sales, but should see its US sales fall in the second half. MRK is just starting, but has higher sales than ABBV in the US currently. GILD is losing share, but still has the bulk of the market and will until at least the second generation ABBV drug is approved. And most surprisingly, JNJ actually increased sales from Q1 to Q2, though the number is pretty much an afterthought.
With Q3 starting with US commercial scripts continuing to decrease (most companies down ~10% in total weekly scripts in the last 6 weeks - MRK being the exception), and OUS sales not meeting expectations generally, I am afraid that 2017 does not look good now. This is especially true for GILD since it is losing market share and is most affected by the discounting and the loss of revenue by use of the 8 week treatment option. I will not be surprised if GILD lowers guidance again after Q3. But its stock is so cheap that the price seems to already reflect a significant decrease. And HIV continues to do well so GILD is not quite an one-trick pony, but pretty close. HCV will continue to drive GILD's price until it doesn't, but that is probably a couple years out.
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