Biotech Values

[WorstLuck]

The surprise to me is how fast and deep the drop has been after the 100mm secondary.

Bingo.

Stocks break the secondary offering price often enough. Stocks sometimes fall precipitously after offerings, RVNC had a Nov 2015 offering and it took around 3 months for the stock price to be cut in half, but it had stayed at a price consistent with the offering into January 2016. Many other stocks have done something along those lines.

What's different here is that price only stayed around the offering level for less than two weeks, and came close to a 50% haircut in less than two months.

would think the book runner and the subscribers did their due diligence

Diligence for the book runner is whether or not they can move the offering. They did move it. Diligence for the buyers varies from one to the next.

I'm going to leave here something I saw on X that is interesting:

@choffstein "Instead of seeing something and immediately saying, 'the market is wrong,' I begin with the assumption that the market is right and I’m the one who is missing something."

[alertmeipp]

The surprise to me is how fast and deep the drop has been after the 100mm secondary... I would think the book runner and the subscribers did their due diligence... and usually, stocks go up or at least stabilize after secondary...

[DewDiligence]

In that hypothetical scenario, I would have been concerned that somebody knew something I didn't.

[alertmeipp]

>> If I didn’t have first-hand knowledge of how much better Daxxify is, I would be concerned about my investment.

Concern because the share price keep dropping?

[vinmantoo]

Current prices are reality Anything beyond the 1st quarter are pie in the sky

YOU provide the link and I took that data from it and commented on it. Now you are saying I shouldn't use the data from that link, well, only part of it. Come on. Why do you have such faith in their 1st quarter estimates but disregard the 2nd quarter estimates? Personally, I don't care about their estimates, first, second or for the year. I will see what what sales and EPS come in for Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 in 2024 and for 2025 and act as I see fit.

.We are guessing that the creditors are somewhat hesitant to loan money without safeguards so wouldn't you think they know the books?

Who is we? As far as books, do you think RVNC just casually opens the books to everyone? How many creditors are you taking about?

.Wake up

We are both awake but have differing views. That is what makes a market. Are you getting risk averse as you get older? You should have plenty of cash lying around from TRIL, as I do, well along with IMGN and SGEN buyouts. It is good to have lots of cash to take risks. I bought more ABBV today after their drop and more VKTX yesterday, the former I consider a safe move the latter a risk. By the way, I sold some RNVC at $3.86 more than a week ago for tax loss purposes. I will buy back after the wash period is over, hopefully at a lower price, then I might repeat the process in June. We will see.

You mentioned that RGLS was your lottery ticket. I asked you why you felt that way but you must have missed it so I will ask you again. Could you explain why your feel that way?

[Fred Kadiddlehopper]

NYT article: Market flooded with fake Botox
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/25/well/live/counterfeit-botox-risks.html?unlocked_article_code=1.nU0.5syV.RaMIYrMIOJG_&smid=url-share

[jbog]

Vin

Short term thinking. The estimates are for EPS and earnings moving in the right direction.

Current prices are reality Anything beyond the 1st quarter are pie in the sky.

We are guessing that the creditors are somewhat hesitant to loan money without safeguards so wouldn't you think they know the books? Wake up

[DewDiligence]

The previous CGEM post on this board was two years ago (#msg-168836274), so it looks like the answer to your question is no.

Today’s pop puts CGEM above its 2021 IPO price of $21 (#msg-160779532).

[marthambles]

Anyone here following CGEM?. It is up close to 30% today, apparently on the back of this data.

Another one $CGEM

2 cycles of low dose blina in N=6 refractory RA. Minor fever. Robust B cell depletion. 50% red. in relevant auto-abs. Avg. 2.5pt DAS28 response, functionally achieving remission. Most pts. then put on maintenance abatacept, so little insight into durability https://t.co/DjH3ouJeAB

— Professor Oak (@Prof_Oak_) April 26, 2024

[vinmantoo]

The 1st quarter had a estimate of ($ 0.59) 3 months ago, ($ 0.61) 2 months ago and now is at ($ 0.75) . Wrong way

Short term thinking. The estimates are for EPS and earnings moving in the right direction.

[dexprs]

Closed ABOS, AVXL and CGTX. They may not have been the right ones to select for their Alzheimer's research and results. Still holding ANVS.

[PonkenPlonken]

RANI for GLP1 adm. Oral vs injection... Do the thinking

[DewDiligence]

FDA approves PFE’s Beqvez gene-therapy for hemophilia-B:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240425269649/en

The US list price of $3.5M is the same as CSL’s Hemgenix (#msg-170520619).

p.s. Benveq should not be confused with PFE's Marstacimab for hemophilia A and hemophilia B (#msg-172016370), which is an antibody, not a gene therapy.

[DewDiligence]

ABBV reports 1Q24 results—raises 2024 guidance:

https://news.abbvie.com/2024-04-26-AbbVie-Reports-First-Quarter-2024-Financial-Results

New 2024 non-GAAP EPS guidance $11.13-11.33, up from the prior guidance of $11.05-11.25 three months ago. The new guidance includes an ($0.08) hit from IPR&D occurring in 1Q24, which was not in the prior full-year 2024 guidance.

The midpoint of the new range ($11.23) represents 1% YoY growth from the actual $11.11 in 2023. The lack of robust YoY growth is due, in large part, to the continued uptake of Humira biosimilars in the US market and to flat Botox sales as ABBV loses some market share.

[DewDiligence]

1Q24 worldwide Botox sales=$1.381B, -7% QoQ*, flat YoY

https://news.abbvie.com/2024-04-26-AbbVie-Reports-First-Quarter-2024-Financial-Results

• US therapeutic: $611M (-6% QoQ, +4% YoY)
• US cosmetic: $389M (-14% QoQ*, -5% YoY)
--
US total: $1.00B (61% therapeutic; 39% cosmetic) was 72% of worldwide total


• Ex-US therapeutic: $137M (+8% QoQ, +5% YoY)
• Ex-US cosmetic: $244M (-8% QoQ*, -3% YoY)
--
Ex-US total: $381M (36% therapeutic; 64% cosmetic) was 28z% of worldwide total.


*Botulinum-toxin sales for cosmetic indications are seasonally stronger during the second and fourth calendar quarters than the first and third calendar quarters.

[sab63090]

Dew: FYI
I see that Biotech Jim added to his apparently long position in $VKTX yesterday....

[jbog]

Vin

2023 had the big fintech write down.

The 1st quarter had a estimate of ($ 0.59) 3 months ago, ($ 0.61) 2 months ago and now is at ($ 0.75) . Wrong way

[vinmantoo]

Take a look and the following analysis for a clue, not only are loss estimates increasing but they are increasing with with more shares on the market.

jbog,

Not sure what you are looking at but that link you gave had analysts estimates for EPS declining and projected revenues increasing. For EPS, the average predicted EPS for 2024 is -2.3 compared to -3.83 for 2023, and their estimates for 2025 EPS are -1.06. For revenues, they predict $281.7 million for 2024 compared to $234 million sales in 2023 and their prediction for 2025 is $382 million in sales.

[jbog]

Biowatch

Please, you tell me why it keeps hitting new lows

Wall Street knows what's going on. I'm sure they have channel checks to evaluate sales. Take a look and the following analysis for a clue, not only are loss estimates increasing but they are increasing with with more shares on the market.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RVNC/analysis

[vinmantoo]

No, but this one seems to be. Please, you tell me why it keeps hitting new lows. I don’t know.

Obviously more people are selling than buying, as well as substantial short positions driving the price down. There is an average of 2.6 million shares traded per day, and with the price at $3.30 that comes to less than $10 million per day, making it an easy stock to manipulate. Is it going on now? How the hell would I know?

Do you own RVNC? I try not to figure out the motives of the market because you can't. Obviously I would prefer the stock be much higher but I have been able to do some tax loss selling then buying back to increase my shares. Making lemonade out of lemons if you will. I will likely do the same later in the year.

[DewDiligence]

Sorry Dew, I’ve never used Botox so don’t have your experience.

If I didn’t have first-hand knowledge of how much better Daxxify is, I would be concerned about my investment.

[WorstLuck]

Please, you tell me why it keeps hitting new lows. I don’t know.

I have no idea what price RVNC should be at right now. I do know that they need better sales numbers and, at some point, profits. Whether or not they have the best BoTN on the market is irrelevant if they don't sell enough of it.

FWIW, I think the selling has gone a bit too far. But that doesn't mean it can't go lower. Q1 sales are probably priced in. Q2 will be interesting. Early CD sales may be informative, or not. I feel no rush to put on a position for the long term. Buying downtrends isn't what I want to do.

[Biowatch]

So do you feel that all stocks with cosmetic products should be selling off?

No, but this one seems to be. Please, you tell me why it keeps hitting new lows. I don’t know.

I watched wild market gyrations when I owned and followed IMCL before they were bought out, but an effective cancer drug is more likely to have a steady market than this “we are better than Botox” company has so far.

[vinmantoo]

RVNC hits $3.28.

Now I don't feel so bad about selling some last week for a tax loss as I will might be able to buy back those shares at a lower price after the wash rule time has passed.

Someone knows something I don’t, or perhaps I’m ignoring the obvious.

Lots of people make foolish mistakes believing that.

Hate to be the curmudgeon, but this, aside from CD, is a cosmetic surgery company, and that market can be fickle.

So do you feel that all stocks with cosmetic products should be selling off?

[Biowatch]

RVNC hits $3.28. Someone knows something I don’t, or perhaps I’m ignoring the obvious.

Great, it will prove itself in the long term, but it seems to be fading away into the twilight.

Sorry Dew, I’ve never used Botox so don’t have your experience.

Hate to be the curmudgeon, but this, aside from CD, is a cosmetic surgery company, and that market can be fickle.
———
It hit $3.23 today if you believe Yahoo Finance, but perhaps some people covered their short sales, bringing it back up.

[DewDiligence]

This unorthodox anti-obesity candidate may not warrant inclusion in your table, but here it is anyhow:

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/04/25/2869629/0/en/Aphaia-Pharma-Provides-Enrollment-and-Protocol-Update-for-Phase-2-Trial-in-Individuals-with-Obesity.html

https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05385978

Aphaia Pharma is private.

[DewDiligence]

Thanks, dewo—much appreciated!

[dewophile]

I was able to listen midway and the audio was pretty bad, but the slides are up and could be interesting
They do list the profile of their candidate and it has high potency, selectivity and potential for QD dosing. The latter may differentiate from THRD bc at least their earlier candidate was BID. If this is a drug given chronically this could be important (I don't really know if companies are thinking for flares only or chronic for prophylaxis)
clearly this is going to be an important 3rd company with an oral kit inhibitor in the space. There are a lot of potential clinical avenues to pursue so there could be room for more than one drug here but I think this is one where ENTA would want to partner up early to move into multiple indications quickly assuming all the oral drugs end up progressing - it could be that one carves out an indication prior to another depending on development path
I did find the slide of mast cell expression in various tissues somewhat interesting bc one area of differentiation could be how well you hit a specific tissue - ENTA seems to have been able to tune other molecules to hit certain tissues and spare others so if they can get good skin uptake for urticaria, or good GI uptake for eosiniphilic esophagitis that could be a way to set apart from the competition
looks like BPMC is going to file this Q and enter clinic later this year so a few months behind THRD and then ENTA is going to be a few months behind BPMC
What was notable by omission in the slides was any preclinical liver related tox-avoidance. This is what sidetracked THRD's first candidate, and ENTA does mention it iin their slide deck "no GSH adducts in human liver microsome incubation", THRD certainly talks about it - perahps this was brought up during Q&A in this talk but that seems perhaps notable by omission although I give the benefit of the doubt to BPMC given they have success in the kit arena already with non-wild type inhibitors

[DewDiligence]

“Less than half of veterinary professionals feel their profession is appreciated…”

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/04/25/2869326/0/en/Less-than-half-of-veterinary-professionals-feel-their-profession-is-appreciated.html

I’d be willing to bet that the animals appreciate the service!

[DewDiligence]

Keytruda sold_at_a $28B(!) annualized_rate_in 1Q24, +24% YoY in_constant_currency:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240425889273/en

It’s going to be tough for MRK to replace this revenue when Keytruda goes off-patent in 2028, although a subcutaneous formulation of Keytruda could blunt some of the erosion.

[DewDiligence]

Private company developing AMD tri-specific that_hits VEGF-A/VEGF-C/Ang-2:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/revopsis-secures-16-5-million-seed-funding-to-advance-first-in-class-tri-specific-therapy-for-neovascular-amd-treatment-302127081.html

[DewDiligence]

The short answer to your questions is yes, but “phase-2 and “phase-2b” are not precisely defined terms—i.e. the devil is in the details.

[ggwpq]

DewD, is there any precedent of clinical trials proceeding directly to phase-3 without running a phase-2b, especially in the GLP-1 field? TIA.

[DewDiligence]

VKTX—Not sure why they wouldn't have a normal end of phase-2 meeting with FDA on the obesity drug.

Based on today’s 1Q24 CC Q&A session, it seems that VKTX wants a type-C meeting with the FDA regarding VK2735 to ascertain whether they can proceed directly to phase-3 without running a phase-2b.

[Whalatane]

In 2013, after the publication of the updated recommendations, however, the percentage of atorvastatin prescriptions began to grow regularly from 26% until it reached the highest point at 52% (p = 0.000) in 2019

I think Lipitor ( atorvastatin ) still dominates . Considered the most patient friendly ( best tolerated ) of the high intensity statins .
Simavastatin is the most popular low intensity Statin and Crestor ( generally considered the strongest Statin ) more for the " hard core ".

Kiwi ...baseline LDL cholesterol at 312 mg/dl !!!
Got as low as 20 mg/dl on Repatha , max dose Crestor with some Vascepa thrown in ......312 down to 20 took many years .

[Fred Kadiddlehopper]

George S. Kaufman

[Fred Kadiddlehopper]

Nein!

[zipjet]

I agree with all of that.

GLP-1's look like the class could become the biggest selling class of drug with MANY branded versions.

In that, it reminds me of the statins which became the biggest selling class of drug, with 16 branded versions.

[DewDiligence]

Henry Kissinger?

[Fred Kadiddlehopper]

OT: In answering your question, I just realized that iHub removed my longstanding avatar photo. He's back now and hopefully will remain undisturbed.
Bonus points if you can ID him.
PS, agreed about Denmark ultimately supporting Wegovy. There's really no reason not to. (Well, except that it might perhaps rub up against their national self-image as that of a nation of fit and trim people.)

[DewDiligence]

For some reason, I never appreciated it until now.

[DewDiligence]

I checked Jim’s X account (@JamesEKrause), and the last time he posted about VKTX was Jun 2023.

[Fred Kadiddlehopper]

OT:

p.s. When did you adopt adopt your iHub signature line?

Oh, my! It must have been when I created the account. That feels like another lifetime ago.
What piqued your interest there?

[DewDiligence]

I’ll catch the replay.

I'd appreciate your comments on it when you have a chance to listen. TIA

[DewDiligence]

I doubt that obesity is much of a problem in Denmark.

In that case, the national healthcare system would incur relatively little risk by covering Wegovy. I predict that they will cover it, in due course.

p.s. When did you adopt adopt your iHub signature line?

[Fred Kadiddlehopper]

I doubt that obesity is much of a problem in Denmark. When I visited the country, it was easy to spot the Americans in Copenhagen for obvious reasons. But, yes, you'd think they would show some support for their largest company, if only for international PR reasons.

[DewDiligence]

I would argue that the two MoAs are more different than similar. Excision Bio’s approach of editing the cccDNA does not rely on the immune system—or on any host response whatsoever.

[DewDiligence]

Irony? Denmark’s national healthcare system does not reimburse for Wegovy.

[dewophile]

No I have procedures that day
I’ll catch the replay

[DewDiligence]

Are you planning to tune in?