Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[realist1]

a few disagreements with your example CFH.

1. In the example of deal half now we shouldn't use 325 million shares.
That's authorized currently but not outstanding - yet. Actual committed shares are around 274 million AND there's still a lot of cash on the balance sheet, so if this hypothetical deal we're talking about were to happen anywhere within the next year the outstanding could stay at ~274 million IF they knew they were trying for that and therefore didn't keep using the ATM.

2. I think you're talking about the total lung cancer market, but really we should only be looking at non small cell part.

3. Most of the worlds population is 3rd world or poorly developed countries, and most will never see this modern multi-drug cancer therapy for more than they'd earn in a lifetime.

So the combination (and negative compounding effect) of #2 and #3 makes your numbers way too high.

4. Please don't forget the INSTANT positives that are created if PPHM were to do a deal vs. the negatives (dark clouds overhead) that continue to exist if they don't. That in itself is huge.