Replies to post #232580 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[CuresForHumanity]

Realist1 reponse:
"1. In the example of deal half now we shouldn't use 325 million shares.
That's authorized currently but not outstanding - yet. Actual committed shares are around 274 million AND there's still a lot of cash on the balance sheet, so if this hypothetical deal we're talking about were to happen anywhere within the next year the outstanding could stay at ~274 million IF they knew they were trying for that and therefore didn't keep using the ATM. "

My response:
Ok - in that case - the end result would probably be closer to even for partner vs no partner

Realist1 response:
"2. I think you're talking about the total lung cancer market, but really we should only be looking at non small cell part. "

My response: The 3.5 M estimated world wide yearly lung cancer deaths did include all lung cancers. However 85% of lung cancer is NSCL. .85 of 3.5 M is about 3M. .

Realist 1 response:
"
3. Most of the worlds population is 3rd world or poorly developed countries, and most will never see this modern multi-drug cancer therapy for more than they'd earn in a lifetime.

So the combination (and negative compounding effect) of #2 and #3 makes your numbers way too high. "

My response: I used only 1/3 of the three million potential enrollment at 1M patients per year. If I cut this in half to 500k and still use only 1/6 the price of other immuno drugs at 10k - I come up with a min of 5 B in sales -Market cap will be absolute min 10B

Realist1
"
4. Please don't forget the INSTANT positives that are created if PPHM were to do a deal vs. the negatives (dark clouds overhead) that continue to exist if they don't. That in itself is huge."
My response: excellent point realist!