Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[CuresForHumanity]

If you like those numbers, try this.

158,683 people in the US died of lung cancer in 2007
The average cost of Opdivo for a year is $150,000
The U.S. has 309 M people
The worldwide population is 7.2 B
The percentage of people that die from lung cancer is 158000 / 310M = .0005
.0005 * 7.2 B = 3.5 M approximate yearly potential lung cancer deaths world wide
If only 1/3 of these 3.5 M patients were treated with bavi per year, that would be approximately 1 M people per year
If the cost was only 10k * 1M people = 10B in sales

So back to the original example of our 2 options

1. We give up half our sales but we keep our OS at 325
5B * a multiple of 3 on sales / 325 M = 15000/ 325 = 46.15

2. We authorize 505 M OS and keep 100% sales
10B * a multiple of 3 on sales / 505M = 30000/505 = 59.40