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Portfolio Management Tips For Young Investors
Too many young people rarely, or never, invest for their retirement years. Some distant date, 40 or so years in the future, is hard to imagine. However, without investments to supplement retirement income, if any, retirees will have a difficult time paying for lifes necessities. TUTORIAL:Stocks Basics
Smart, disciplined, regular investment in a portfolio of diverse holdings, can yield good long-term returns for retirement and provide additional income throughout an investors working life.
An often stated reason for not investing is a lack of knowledge and understanding of the stock market. This objection can be overcome through self-education and step-by-step through the years, as an investor learns by investing. Classes in investing are also offered by a variety of sources, including city and state colleges, civic and not-for-profit organizations, and there are numerous books targeted to the beginning investor.
However, youve got to start investing now; the earlier you begin, the more time your investments will have to grow in value. Heres a good way to start building a portfolio, and how to manage it for the best results. (For related reading, see Top 5 Books For Young Investors.)
Start Early
Start saving as soon as you go to work by participating in a 401(k) retirement plan, if its offered by your employer. If a 401(k) plan is not available, establish an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) and earmark a percentage of your compensation for a monthly contribution to the account. An easy, convenient way to save in an IRA or 401(k) is to create an automatic monthly cash contribution. Keep in mind, the savings accumulate and the interest compounds without taxes, as long as the money is not withdrawn, so its wise to establish one of these retirement investment vehicles early in your working life.
Another reason to start saving early is that usually the younger you are, the less likely you are to have burdensome financial obligations: a spouse, children and mortgage, for example. That means you can allocate a small portion of your investment portfolio to higher risk investments, which may return higher yields.
When you start investing while young, before your financial commitments start piling up, youll probably also have more cash available for investing and a longer time horizon before retirement. With more money to invest for many years to come, youll have a bigger retirement nest egg.
To illustrate the advantage of value investing as soon as possible, assume you invest $200 every month starting at age 25. If you earn a 7% annual return on that money, when youre 65 your retirement nest egg will be approximately $525,000. However, if you start saving that $200 monthly at age 35 and get the same 7% return, youll only have about $244,000 at age 65. (For additional reading, see Accelerating Returns With Continuous Compounding.)
Diversify
Select stocks across a broad spectrum of market categories. This is best achieved in an index fund. Invest in conservative stocks with regular dividends, stocks with long-term growth potential, and a small percentage of stocks with better returns, along with higher risk potential. If youre investing in individual stocks, dont put more than 4% of your total portfolio into one stock. That way, if a stock or two suffers a downturn, your portfolio wont be too adversely effected. Certain AAA rated bonds are also good investments for the long term, either corporate or government. Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, for example, are safe and pay a higher rate of return than short- and mid-term bonds. (To learn more on investing in bonds, read Bond Basics: Different Types Of Bonds.)
Keep Costs to a Minimum
Invest with a discount brokerage firm. Another reason to consider index funds when beginning to invest is that they have low fees. Because youll be investing for the long-term, dont buy and sell regularly in response to market ups and downs. This saves you commission expenses and management fees, and may prevent cash losses when the price of your stock declines.
Discipline and Regular Investing
Make sure that you put money into your investments on a regular, disciplined basis. This may not be possible if you lose your job, but once you find new employment, continue to put money into your portfolio.
Asset Allocation and Re-Balance
Assign a certain percentage of your portfolio to growth stocks, dividend paying stocks, index funds and stocks with a higher risk, but better returns.
When your asset allocation changes (i.e., market fluctuations change the percentage of your portfolio allocated to each category), re-balance your portfolio by adjusting your monetary stake in each category to reflect your original percentage. (For more information, read Five Things To Know About Asset Allocation.),
Tax Considerations
A portfolio of holdings in a tax-deferred account, a 401(k), for example, builds wealth faster than a portfolio with tax liability. You pay taxes on the amount of money withdrawn from a tax deferred retirement account. A Roth IRA also accumulates tax free savings, but the account owner doesnt have to pay taxes on the amount withdrawn. To qualify for a Roth IRA, your modified adjusted gross income must meet IRS limits and other regulations. Earnings are federally tax free if youve owned your Roth IRA for at least five years and youre older than 59.5, or if youre younger than 59.5, have owned your Roth IRA for at least five years and the withdrawal is due to your death or disability, or for a first time home purchase.
The Bottom Line
Disciplined, regular, diversified investment in a tax deferred 401(k), IRA or a potentially tax-free Roth IRA, and smart portfolio management can build a significant nest egg for retirement. A portfolio with tax liability, dividends and the sale of profitable stock can provide cash to supplement employment or business income. Managing your assets by re-allocation and keeping costs, such as commissions and management fees, low, can produce maximum returns. If you start investing as early as possible, your stocks will have more time to build value. Finally, keep learning about investments throughout your life, both before and after retirement. The more you know, the more your potential portfolio return, with proper management, of course.
7 Common Investor Mistakes
Of the mistakes made by investors, seven of them are repeat offenses. In fact, investors have been making these same mistakes since the dawn of modern markets, and will likely be repeating them for years to come. You can significantly boost your chances of investment success by becoming aware of these typical errors and taking steps to avoid them. (To read about market histories, see The Stock Market: A Look Back, The Bond Market: A Look Back and The Money Market: A Look Back.)
TUTORIAL: Investing 101 For Beginner Investors
1. No Plan
As the old saying goes, if you dont know where youre going, any road will take you there. Solution?
Have a personal investment plan or policy that addresses the following:
• Goals and objectives - Find out what youre trying to accomplish. Accumulating $100,000 for a childs college education or $2 million for retirement at age 60 are appropriate goals. Beating the market is not a goal.
• Risks - What risks are relevant to you or your portfolio? If you are a 30-year-old saving for retirement, volatility isnt (or shouldnt be) a meaningful risk. On the other hand, inflation - which erodes any long-term portfolio - is a significant risk. (To see more on risk, read Determining Risk And The Risk Pyramid and Personalizing Risk Tolerance.)
• Appropriate benchmarks - How will you measure the success of your portfolio, its asset classes and individual funds or managers? (Keep reading about benchmarks in Benchmark Your Returns With Indexes.)
• Asset allocation - What percentage of your total portfolio will you allocate to U.S. equities, international stocks, U.S. bonds, high-yield bonds, etc. Your asset allocation should accomplish your goals while addressing relevant risks.
• Diversification - Allocating to different asset classes is the initial layer of diversification. You then need to diversify within each asset class. In U.S. stocks, for example, this means exposure to large-, mid- and small-cap stocks. (Find out more about allocation and diversification in Five Things To Know About Asset Allocation, Choose Your Own Asset Allocation Adventure and A Guide To Portfolio Construction.)
Your written plans guidelines will help you adhere to a sound long-term policy, even when current market conditions are unsettling. Having a good plan and sticking to it is not nearly as exciting or as much fun as trying to time the markets, but it will likely be more profitable in the long term. (To find out how to make your investment plan, see Having A Plan: The Basis Of Success, Ten Steps to Building A Winning Trading Plan and Tailoring Your Investment Plan.)
2. Too Short of a Time Horizon
If you are saving for retirement 30 years hence, what the stock market does this year or next shouldnt be the biggest concern. Even if you are just entering retirement at age 70, your life expectancy is likely 15 to 20 years. If you expect to leave some assets to your heirs, then your time horizon is even longer. Of course, if you are saving for your daughters college education and shes a junior in high school, then your time horizon is appropriately short and your asset allocation should reflect that fact. Most investors are too focused on the short term.
3. Too Much Attention Given to Financial Media
There is almost nothing on financial news shows that can help you achieve your goals. Turn them off. There are few newsletters that can provide you with anything of value. Even if there were, how do you identify them in advance?
Think about it - if anyone really had profitable stock tips, trading advice or a secret formula to make big bucks, would they blab it on TV or sell it to you for $49 per month? No - theyd keep their mouth shut, make their millions and not have to sell a newsletter to make a living. (To learn more, see Mad Money ... Mad Market? and The Madness Of Crowds.)
Solution? Spend less time watching financial shows on TV and reading newsletters. Spend more time creating - and sticking to - your investment plan.
4. Not Rebalancing
Rebalancing is the process of returning your portfolio to its target asset allocation as outlined in your investment plan. Rebalancing is difficult because it forces you to sell the asset class that is performing well and buy more of your worst performing asset classes. This contrarian action is very difficult for many investors.
In addition, rebalancing is unprofitable right up to that point where it pays off spectacularly (think U.S. equities in the late 1990s), and the underperforming assets start to take off. (Keep reading about this subject in Equity Premiums: Looking Back And Looking Ahead.)
However, a portfolio allowed to drift with market returns guarantees that asset classes will be overweighted at market peaks and underweighted at market lows - a formula for poor performance. The solution? Rebalance religiously and reap the long-term rewards. (Find out how to put this tip to use in Rebalance Your Portfolio To Stay On Track, When Fear And Greed Take Over and Master Your Trading Mindtraps.)
5. Overconfidence in the Ability of Managers
From numerous studies, including Burton Malkiels 1995 study entitled, Returns From Investing In Equity Mutual Funds, we know that most managers will underperform their benchmarks. We also know that theres no consistent way to select - in advance - those managers that willoutperform. We also know that very, very few individuals can profitably time the market over the long term. So why are so many investors confident of their abilities to time the market and select outperforming managers?
Fidelity guru Peter Lynch once observed, There are no market timers in the Forbes 400. Investors misplaced overconfidence in their ability to market-time and select outperforming managers leads directly to our next common investment mistake. (For more insight, see Pick Stocks Like Peter Lynch.)
6. Not Enough Indexing
There is not enough time to recite many of the studies that prove that most managers and mutual funds underperform their benchmarks. Over the long-term, low-cost index funds are typically upper second-quartile performers, or better than 65-75% of actively managed funds.
Despite all the evidence in favor of indexing, the desire to invest with active managers remains strong. John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard, says its because, Hope springs eternal. Indexing is sort of dull. It flies in the face of the American way [that] I can do better.
Index all or a large portion (70-80%) of all your traditional asset classes. If you cant resist the excitement of pursuing the next great performer, set aside a portion (20-30%) of each asset class to allocate to active managers. This may satisfy your desire to pursue outperformance without devastating your portfolio.
7. Chasing Performance
Many investors select asset classes, strategies, managers and funds based on recent strong performance. The feeling that Im missing out on great returns has probably led to more bad investment decisions than any other single factor. If a particular asset class, strategy or fund has done extremely well for three or four years, we know one thing with certainty: We should have invested three or four years ago. Now, however, the particular cycle that led to this great performance may be nearing its end. The smart money is moving out, and the dumb money is pouring in. Stick with your investment plan and rebalance, which is the polar opposite of chasing performance.
Conclusion
Investors who recognize and avoid these seven common mistakes give themselves a great advantage in meeting their investment goals. Most of the solutions above are not exciting, and they dont make great cocktail party conversation. However, they are likely to be profitable. And isnt that why we really invest?
Financial Advice With Zero Return
Many people rely on financial advisors, either independent ones or those employed at banks. The good ones will at least ensure that you have a sensibly diversified portfolio and that it stays that way. However, a recent study indicates that many advisors do not increase the actual investment returns on an ongoing basis.
What Advisors Do and Dont
An investigation conducted at the University of Frankfurt in Germany reveals that neither portfolios advised by banks nor independent advisors, do any better than those for which no advice was given. Finance professor Andreas Hackethal explains that the main problem is the failure of advisors to correct systematic investment errors sufficiently, while at the same time, they generate additional costs. (For related reading, see Diversifying Your Portfolio.)
Furthermore, this work almost certainly applies to the United States. According to Hackethal, an investigation by Bergstresser et. al in the U.S., demonstrated that mutual funds sold through U.S. broker channels underperform other mutual funds. They take this as indirect evidence that brokers or advisors do not add value for clients.
The Frankfurt-based study used client data from a large German bank and from an online broker that specializes in providing independent advice. The survey sample that was given advice, performed no better than the execution-only group.
The researchers also confirm that banks (and certain other advisors) have the wrong incentive structures, so that the advisory process all too often helps only the seller and not the investor. (To learn more, read Paying Your Investment Advisor - Fees Or Commissions?)
Investor Reluctance to Obtain and Follow Good Advice
Good advisors are clearly hard to find, but they are indeed out there. However, Hackethal found a widespread client reluctance to use good, skilled advice, preferring to rely on their own generally mediocre investment skills. A staggering 95% of those questioned were not even interested in free independent advice from an advisor with no incentive, at all, to recommend specific products.
Equally amazing is the fact that of the remaining 5%, only half actually followed the advice that they were given. Of this tiny group, half again followed the advice only half-heartedly, even though the recommendations would have led to substantially better returns.
It seems to be mainly wealthy, experienced investors who really appreciate the value of good advice from the right people. Yet, almost anyone would benefit from a second, objective opinion on what to do with their hard-earned savings.
The Solutions
The Frankfurt researchers do not believe that more governmental regulation is the answer either. In particular, given the above consumer attitudes to advice, purely seller-side regulation seems doomed to fail. For instance, Hackethal doubts that simply providing more information in the form of brochures, for example, will help much. It will take a lot more to achieve the necessary transparency and learning effects … with respect to investment risks and opportunities.
Clearly, somehow, investor attitudes towards advice need to change and the incentive structures in the industry as well. In addition, investment selling processes at banks may need to be overhauled in a more general sense. There is a compelling need to establish just why, in so many instances, the advisory process fails to work for the investor.
There are undoubtedly independent and bank advisors who can and will help people get more bang (and bank) for their buck. What is lacking is an understanding of the difference between good, mediocre and really bad advice. Above all, far greater market transparency is essential, so that people are able to draw the appropriate distinctions between a fine investment, a rip-off and the various shades of gray between the two extremes. At present, too many investors just do not know who they are dealing with. As Hackethal puts it the person sitting opposite them could be excellent or an outright crook. The clients just dont know. (Learn more on how to Find The Right Financial Advisor.)
An Important Benefit Remains - with Genuinely Independent Advisors
Independent financial advice can, however, at least prevent excessively risky, undiversified portfolios. That is, even if an advisor does not lead to better returns, if they can prevent you from having a high risk portfolio that rockets in a boom and plummets in a bear market, that can be worth a lot. This is a separate issue and needs to be kept in mind. The above research dealt with better investment performance, not with avoiding disastrous losses in a crash.
The Bottom Line
Financial advice can be pretty ineffectual for two main reasons. Firstly, when the incentive structures are wrong, the advice benefits mainly or only the bank or broker. Secondly, investors are remarkably reluctant either to seek out or follow objective advice from a third party. Overcoming this highly unsatisfactory situation entails a combination of changed structures and attitudes on both the buyer and seller sides of the market. This is not easy to achieve, and regulation alone will certainly not do it. The industry needs to take a long, hard look at what it is doing, both wrong and right.
10 Books Every Investor Should Read
When it comes to learning about investment, the internet is one of the fastest, most up-to-date ways to make your way through the jungle of information out there. But if youre looking for a historical perspective on investing or a more detailed analysis of a certain topic, there are several classic books on investing that make for great reading. Here we give you a brief overview of our favorite investing books of all time and set you on the path to investing enlightenment. (To find more recommended books, see Investing Books It Pays To Read.)
The Intelligent Investor (1949) by Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham is undisputedly the father of value investing. His ideas about security analysis laid the foundation for a generation of investors, including his most famous student, Warren Buffett. Published in 1949, The Intelligent Investor is much more readable than Grahams 1934 work entitled Security Analysis, which is probably the most quoted, but least read, investing book. The Intelligent Investor wont tell you how to pick stocks, but it does teach sound, time-tested principles that every investor can use. Plus, its worth a read based solely on Warren Buffetts testimonial: By far the best book on investing ever written.
Common Stocks And Uncommon Profits (1958) by Philip Fisher
Another pioneer in the world of financial analysis , Philip Fisher has had a major influence on modern investment theory. The basic idea of analyzing a stock based on growth potential is largely attributed to Fisher. Common Stocks And Uncommon Profits teaches investors to analyze the quality of a business and its ability to produce profits. First published in the 1950s, Fishers lessons are just as applicable half a century later.
Stocks For The Long Run (1994) by Jeremy Siegel
A professor at the Wharton School of Business, Jeremy Siegel makes the case for - you guessed it - investing in stocks over the long run. He draws on extensive research over the past two centuries to argue not only that equities surpass all other financial assets when it comes to returns, but also that stock returns are safer and more predictable in the face of the effects of inflation.
Learn To Earn (1995), One Up On Wall Street (1989) or Beating The Street (1994) by Peter Lynch
Peter Lynch came into prominence in the 1980s as the manager of the spectacularly performing Fidelity Magellan Fund. Learn To Earn is aimed at a younger audience and explains many business basics, One Up On Wall Street makes the case for the benefits of self-directed investing, and Beating The Street focuses on how Peter Lynch went about choosing winning stocks (or how he missed them) while running the famed Magellan Fund. All three of Lynchs books follow his common sense approach, which insists that individual investors, if they take the time to do their homework, can perform just as well or even better than the experts.
A Random Walk Down Wall Street (1973) by Burton G. Malkiel
This book popularized the ideas that the stock market is efficient and that its prices follow a random walk. Essentially, this means that you cant beat the market. Thats right - according to Malkiel, no amount of research, whether fundamental or technical, will help you in the least. Like any good academic, Malkiel backs up his argument with piles of research and statistics. It would be an understatement to say that these ideas are controversial, and many consider them just short of blasphemy. But whether you agree with Malkiels ideas or not, it is not a bad idea to take a look at how he arrives at his theories. (For further reading, see What Is Market Efficiency?)
The Essays Of Warren Buffett: Lessons For Corporate America (2001) by Warren Buffett and Lawrence Cunningham
Although Buffett seldom comments on his current holdings, he loves to discuss the principles behind his investments . This book is actually a collection of letters that Buffett wrote to shareholders over the past few decades. Its the definitive work summarizing the techniques of the worlds greatest investor. Another great Buffett book is The Warren Buffett Way by Robert Hagstrom. (For further reading, see Warren Buffett: How He Does It and What Is Warren Buffetts Investing Style?)
How To Make Money In Stocks (2003, 3rd ed.) by William J. ONeil
Bill ONeil is the founder of Investors Business Daily, a national business of financial daily newspapers, and the creator of the CANSLIM system. If you are interested in stock picking, this is a great place to start. Many other books are big on generalities with little substance, but How To Make Money In Stocks doesnt make the same mistake. Reading this book will provide you with a tangible system that you can implement right away in your research.
Rich Dad Poor Dad (1997) by Robert T. Kiyosaki
This book is all about the lessons the rich teach their kids about money, which, according to the author, poor and middle-class parents neglect. Robert Kiyosakis message is simple, but it holds an important financial lesson that may motivate you to start investing : the poor make money by working for it, while the rich make money by having their assets work for them. We cant think of a better financial book to buy for your kids.
Common Sense On Mutual Funds (1999) by John Bogle
John Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group, is a driving force behind the case for index funds and against actively-managed mutual funds. In this book, he begins with a primer on investment strategy before blasting the mutual fund industry for the exorbitant fees it charges investors. If you own mutual funds, you should read this book. (To learn more, see The Truth Behind Mutual Fund Returns.)
Irrational Exuberance (2000) by Robert J. Shiller
Named after Alan Greenspans infamous 1996 comment on the absurdity of stock market valuations, Shillers book, released in Mar 2000, gives a chilling warning of the dotcom bubbles impending burst. The Yale economist dispels the myth that the market is rational and instead explains it in terms of emotion, herd behavior and speculation. In an ironic twist, Irrational Exuberance was released almost exactly at the peak of the market. (To learn more on this topic, see Understanding Investor Behavior.)
The more you know, the more youll be able to incorporate the advice of some of these experts into your own investment strategy . This reading list will get you started, but it is only a fraction of all the great resources available. Do you have a favorite investing book that weve missed? If so, let us know.
Understanding The Income Statement
The income statement is one of the three financial statements - the other two are the balance sheet and cash flow statement - with which stock investors need to become familiar. The purpose of this article is to provide the less-experienced investor with an understanding of the components of the income statement in order to simplify investment analysis and make it easier to apply it to your own investment decisions.
In the context of corporate financial reporting, the income statement summarizes a companys revenues (sales) and expenses quarterly and annually for its fiscal year. The final net figure, as well as various others in this statement, are of major interest to the investment community. (To learn more about reading financial statements, see What You Need To Know About Financial Statements, Footnotes: Start Reading The Fine Print and Introduction To Fundamental Analysis.)
General Terminology and Format Clarifications
Income statements come with various monikers. The most commonly used are statement of income, statement of earnings, statement of operations and statement of operating results. Many professionals still use the term P
Do You Need A Financial Advisor?
If you do your own investing, have you ever wondered whether you should turn things over to a professional advisor? This article attempts to shed some light on this topic and to provide you with some things to think about so that the best decision can be made.
When the Time Comes
Professional advisors say there is no magic asset number that pushes an investor to seek advice. Rather, it is more likely an event that spooks a person and sends him scurrying through an advisors door. The event could be something that requires the individual to manage an asset himself.
According to Charles Hughes, a certified financial planner in Bayshore, New York, the event typically involves either the receipt of or access to a large sum of money that the individual didnt have before.
When you reach a point in which youre constantly afraid that youre going to make a mistake with your investments, then you need professional advice, according to Raymond Mignone, a certified financial planner in Little Neck, New York.
Often, someone who has never spent or managed more than a few thousand dollars is looking at managing a six-figure or group of accounts.
If this happens to someone just about to retire, the decisions that need to made are more critical, as the retiree will want to make this money last. As such, people often seek professional advice just before they retire, because they feel that they need professional advice to make such long-term decisions.
When it comes to portfolio management , it is important to determine your plan of attack. Take the 401(k) plan, for example. When youre contributing to the plan, you may feel like its not your money. You cant do with it what you want because youll be penalized. But when retirement is coming and you can access that money, the question often arises about what you are going to do with it. For many, this can be when they decide whether they can manage their own affairs or whether they should seek professional advice.
Judging Yourself
The need for critical self evaluation is vital when determining whether or not to hire a financial planner. Advisors say the decision depends on the investor.
The following questions should help you sort out if you need an advisor:
• Do you have a fair knowledge of investments?
• Do you enjoy reading about investments and doing research?
• If you have expertise in investments? Do you have the time to monitor and evaluate them and make periodic changes to your portfolio?
If you answered yes to the above questions, you may not need an advisor or financial planner.
Not So Fast
However, Loren Dunton, one of the founders of the financial planning movement, says that many people who believe that they dont need a financial planner could benefit from one anyway.
Most people need a planner. The ones who dont need one are usually smart enough to use one, wrote Dunton in Financial Planning Can Make You Rich (1987).
So lets assume someone decides that, for any of the reasons stated above, he or she does need an advisor. Theres another difficult task: Finding the right advisor.
Finding the Right Financial Professional
How do you go about finding the right advisor? You should begin by asking for referrals from colleagues, friends or family members who seem to be managing their finances successfully. Another avenue is professional recommendations. A Certified Public Accountant or a lawyer might make a referral. Professional associations can sometimes provide help. These include the Financial Planning Associating (FPA) and the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (NAPFA).
The client must also decide how the advisor will be paid. Some advisors charge a straight commission every time a transaction is recorded. Other advisors will charge a fee based on the amount of money they have been given to manage. Some fee advisors assess an hourly fee. As such, fee advisors can be very expensive, which could put them beyond the reach of many middle-class clients.
Fee advisors claim that their advice is superior because it has no conflict of interest. In other words, using an advisor paid through commissions, which is a payment received by an advisor or a broker whenever a transaction is recorded, can compromise an advisors integrity. As such, those who advocate fee advisors suggest that commission advisors may have an incentive to record too many transactions. However, commission advisors argue that their services are certainly less expensive than paying fees that can run as high as $100/hour or more.
The Wrong Advisor
If your advisor only records some transactions from time to time but never sits down and discusses long-term goals with you, you may want to look for a new advisor. Similarly, if you advisor never writes an investment plan to lay out your goals and assess whether they are being reached, you may be better served elsewhere.
A written plan for each client is critical. In addition, good advisors have semiannual conferences with clients and talk to their clients on a regular basis. In addition, a good advisor who is just beginning to work with a client should never recommend a product until he has learned a lot about his or her circumstances and goals. (For more insight, read Find The Right Financial Advisor.)
Finally, the individual should ensure that any financial professional has the proper credentials. Avoid any advisor who is little more than a broker, but calls himself a financial planner or advisor.
Many planners or advisors are only sellers of financial products. In fact, the term financial planner has been a much-abused term. A person can label him or herself as a financial planner, but not be a certified financial planner unless he or she has fulfilled the necessary credentials. Therefore, dont allow yourself to be impressed by the title on an advisors business card until you understand what qualifications and certifications he or she actually has.
Conclusion
The decision about whether or not to seek advice can be critical. If you do choose to seek advice, carefully choose the right professional for the job and you should be on your way to a better financial plan . If you decide to go it alone, remember if at first you dont succeed, you can try again ... or call an advisor.
Everything Investors Need To Know About Earnings
You cant get far in the stock market without understanding earnings. Everybody from CEOs to research analysts is infatuated with this often-quoted number. But what exactly do earnings represent? Why do they attract so much attention? Well answer these questions and more in this primer on earnings.
What Are Earnings?
A companys earnings are, quite simply, its profits. Take a companys revenue from selling something, subtract all the costs to produce that product, and, voila, you have earnings! Of course, the details of accounting get a lot more complicated, but underneath all the financial jargon what is really being measured is how much money a company makes.
Part of the confusion associated with earnings is caused by its many synonyms. The terms profit, net income, bottom line and earnings all refer to the same thing.
Earnings Per Share
To compare the earnings of different companies, investors and analysts often use the ratio earnings per share (EPS). To calculate EPS you take the earnings left over for shareholders and divide by the number of shares outstanding. You can think of EPS as a per-capita way of describing earnings. Because every company has a different number of shares owned by the public, comparing only companies earnings figures does not indicate how much money each company made for each of its shares, so we need EPS to make valid comparisons.
For example, take two companies: ABC Corp. and XYZ Corp. They both have earnings of $1 million but ABC Corp has 1 million shares outstanding while XYZ Corp. only has 100,000 shares outstanding. ABC Corp. has EPS of $1 per share ($1 million/1 million shares) while XYZ Corp. has EPS of $10 per share ($1 million/100,000 shares).
Earnings Season
Earnings season is Wall Streets equivalent to a school report card. It happens four times per year; publicly traded companies in the U.S. are required by law to report their financial results on a quarterly basis. Most companies follow the calendar year for reporting, but they do have the option of reporting based on their own fiscal calendars.
Although it is important to remember that investors look at all financial results, you might have guessed that earnings (or EPS) is the most important number released during earnings season, attracting the most attention and media coverage. Before earnings reports come out, stock analysts issue earnings estimates - what they think earnings will come in at. These forecasts are then compiled by research firms into the consensus earnings estimate.
When a company beats this estimate its called an earnings surprise, and the stock usually moves higher. If a company releases earnings below these estimates it is said to disappoint, and the price typically moves lower. All this makes it hard to try to guess how a stock will move during earnings season: its really all about expectations. (For more on this phenonmenon, see Surprising Earnings Results.)
Why Do Investors Care About Earnings?
Investors care about earnings because they ultimately drive stock prices . Strong earnings generally result in the stock price moving up (and vice versa). Sometimes a company with a rocketing stock price might not be making much money, but the rising price means that investors are hoping that the company will be profitable in the future - of course, there are no guarantees that the company will fulfill investors current expectations.
The dotcom boom and bust is a perfect example of company earnings coming in significantly short of the numbers investors imagined. When the boom started, everybody got excited about the prospects for any company involved in the internet, and stock prices soared. Over time, it became clear that the dotcoms werent going to make nearly as much money as many had predicted. It simply wasnt possible for the market to support these companies high valuations without any earnings; as a result, the stock prices of these companies collapsed.
When a company is making money it has two options. First, it can improve its products and develop new ones. Second, it can pass the money onto shareholders in the form of a dividend or a share buyback (see The Lowdown on Stock Buybacks). It really is this simple!
In the first case, you trust the management to re-invest profits in the hope of making more profits. In the second case, you get your money right away. Typically, smaller companies attempt to create shareholder value by reinvesting profits, while more mature companies pay out dividends. Neither method is necessarily better, but both rely on the same idea: in the long run, earnings provide a return on shareholders investments .
Summary
Earnings means profit; its the money a company makes. It is often evaluated in terms of earnings per share (EPS) - this is the most important indicator of a companys financial health. Earnings reports are released four times per year and are followed very closely by Wall Street. In the end, growing earnings are a good indication that a company is on the right path to providing a solid return for investors.
The Two Sides Of Dual-Class Shares
It sounds too good to be true: own a small portion of a companys total stock, but get most of the voting power. Thats the truth behind dual-class shares. They allow shareholders of non-traded stock to control terms of the company in excess of the financial stake. While many investors would like to eliminate dual-class shares, there are several hundred companies in the United States with dual A and B listed shares, or even multiple class listed shares. So, the question is, whats the impact of dual-class ownership on a companys fundamentals and performance? (To learn more, see The ABCs Of Mutual Fund Classes.)
What Are Dual-Class Shares?
When the Internet company Google went public, a lot of investors were upset that it issued a second class of shares to ensure that the firms founders and top executives maintained control. Each of the Class B shares reserved for Google insiders would carry 10 votes, while ordinary Class A shares sold to the public would get just one vote. (To learn more, see When Insiders Buy, Should Investors Join Them?)
Designed to give specific shareholders voting control, unequal voting shares are primarily created to satisfy owners who dont want to give up control, but do want the public equity market to provide financing. In most cases, these super-voting shares are not publicly traded and company founders and their families are most commonly the controlling groups in dual-class companies.
Who Lists Them?
The New York Stock Exchange allows U.S. companies to list dual-class voting shares. Once shares are listed, however, companies cannot reduce the voting rights of the existing shares or issue a new class of superior voting shares. (For more information, see The NYSE And Nasdaq: How They Work.)
Many companies list dual-class shares. Fords dual-class stock structure, for instance, allows the Ford family to control 40% of shareholder voting power with only about 4% of the total equity in the company. Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which has Warren Buffett as a majority shareholder, offers a B share with 1/30th the interest of its A-class shares, but 1/200th of the voting power. Echostar Communications demonstrates the extreme power that can be had through dual-class shares: founder and CEO Charlie Ergen has about 5% of the companys stock, but his super-voting class-A shares give him a whopping 90% of the vote.
Good or Bad?
Its easy to dislike companies with dual-class share structures, but the idea behind it has its defenders. They say that the practice insulates managers from Wall Streets short-term mindset. Founders often have a longer term vision than investors focused on the most recent quarterly figures. Since stock that provides extra voting rights often cannot be traded, it ensures the company will have a set of loyal investors during rough patches. In these cases, company performance may benefit from the existence of dual-class shares.
With that said, there are plenty of reasons to dislike these shares. They can be seen as downright unfair. They create an inferior class of shareholders and hand over power to a select few, who are then allowed to pass the financial risk onto others. With few constraints placed upon them, managers holding super-class stock can spin out of control. Families and senior managers can entrench themselves into the operations of the company, regardless of their abilities and performance. Finally, dual-class structures may allow management to make bad decisions with few consequences.
Hollinger International presents a good example of the negative effects of dual-class shares. Former CEO Conrad Black controlled all of the companys class-B shares, which gave him 30% of the equity and 73% of the voting power. He ran the company as if he were the sole owner, exacting huge management fees, consulting payments and personal dividends. Hollingers board of directors was filled with Blacks friends who were unlikely to forcefully oppose his authority. Holders of publicly traded shares of Hollinger had almost no power to make any decisions in terms of executive compensation, mergers and acquisitions, board construction poison pills or anything else for that matter. Hollingers financial and share performance suffered under Blacks control. (To learn more, see Mergers And Acquisitions: Understanding Takeovers.)
Academic research offers strong evidence that dual-class share structures hinder corporate performance. A Wharton School and Harvard Business School study shows that while large ownership stakes in managers hands tend to improve corporate performance, heavy voting control by insiders weakens it. Shareholders with super-voting rights are reluctant to raise cash by selling additional shares--that could dilute these shareholders influence. The study also shows that dual-class companies tend to be burdened with more debt than single-class companies. Even worse, dual-class stocks tend to under-perform the stock market.
The Bottom Line
Not every dual-class company is destined to perform poorly--Berkshire Hathaway, for one, has consistently delivered great fundamentals and shareholder value. Controlling shareholders normally have an interest in maintaining a good reputation with investors. Insofar as family members wield voting power, they have an emotional incentive to vote in a manner that enhances performance. All the same, investors should keep in mind the effects of dual-class ownership on company fundamentals.
The NYSE And Nasdaq: How They Work
Whenever someone talks about the stock market as a place where equities are exchanged between buyers and sellers, the first thing that comes to mind is either the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or Nasdaq, and theres no debate over why. These two exchanges account for the trading of a major portion of equities in North America and worldwide. At the same time, however, the NYSE and Nasdaq are very different in the way they operate and in the types of equities traded therein. Knowing these differences will help you better understand the function of a stock exchange and the mechanics behind the buying and selling of stocks.
Location, Location, Location
The location of an exchange refers not so much to its street address but the place where its transactions take place. On the NYSE, all trades occur in a physical place, on the trading floor in New York City. So, when you see those guys waving their hands on TV or ringing a bell before opening the exchange, you are seeing the people through whom stocks are transacted on the NYSE.
The Nasdaq, on the other hand, is located not on a physical trading floor but on a telecommunications network. People are not on a floor of the exchange matching buy and sell orders on behalf of investors. Instead, trading takes place directly between investors and their buyers or sellers, who are the market makers (whose role we discuss below in the next section), through an elaborate system of companies electronically connected to one another.
Dealer vs. Auction Market
The fundamental difference between the NYSE and Nasdaq is in the way securities on the exchanges are transacted between buyers and sellers. The Nasdaq is a dealers market, wherein market participants are not buying from and selling to one another directly but through a dealer, which, in the case of the Nasdaq, is a market maker . The NYSE is an auction market, wherein individuals are typically buying and selling between one another and there is an auction occurring; that is, the highest bidding price will be matched with the lowest asking price. (For more on different types of markets, see Markets Demystified.)
Traffic Control
Each stock market has its own traffic control police officer. Yup, thats right, just as a broken traffic light needs a person to control the flow of cars, each exchange requires people who are at the intersection where buyers and sellers meet, or place their orders. The traffic controllers of both exchanges deal with specific traffic problems and, in turn, make it possible for their markets to work. On the Nasdaq, the traffic controller is known as the market maker, who, we already mentioned, transacts with buyers and sellers to keep the flow of trading going. On the NYSE, the exchange traffic controller is known as the specialist, who is in charge of matching up buyers and sellers.
The definitions of the role of the market maker and that of the specialist are technically different; a market maker creates a market for a security, whereas a specialist merely facilitates it. However, the duty of both the market maker and specialist is to ensure smooth and orderly markets for clients. If too many orders get backed up, the traffic controllers of the exchanges will work to match the bidders with the askers to ensure the completion of as many orders as possible. If there is nobody willing to buy or sell, the market makers of the Nasdaq and the specialists of the NYSE will try to see if they can find buyers and sellers and even buy and sell from their own inventories.
Perception and Cost
One thing that we cant quantify but must acknowledge is the way in which the companies on each of these exchanges are generally perceived by investors. The Nasdaq is typically known as a high-tech market, attracting many of the firms dealing with the internet or electronics. Accordingly, the stocks on this exchange are considered to be more volatile and growth oriented. On the other hand, the companies on NYSE are perceived to be more well established. Its listings include many of the blue chip firms and industrials that were around before our parents, and its stocks are considered to be more stable and established.
Whether a stock trades on the Nasdaq or the NYSE is not necessarily a critical factor for investors when they are deciding on stocks to invest in. However, because both exchanges are perceived differently, the decision to list on a particular exchange is an important one for many companies. A companys decision to list on a particular exchange is affected also by the listing costs and requirements set by each individual exchange. The entry fee a company can expect to pay on the NYSE is up to $250,000 while on the Nasdaq, it is only $50,000-$75,000. Yearly listing fees are also a big factor: on the NYSE, they based on the number of shares of a listed security, and are capped at $500,000, while the Nasdaq fees come in at around $27,500. So we can understand why the growth-type stocks (companies with less initial capital) would be found on the Nasdaq exchange. (For further reading, see What are the listing requirements for the Nasdaq?)
Public vs. Private
Prior to March 8, 2006, the final major difference between these two exchanges was their type of ownership: the Nasdaq exchange was listed as a publicly-traded corporation, while the NYSE was private. This all changed in March 2006 when the NYSE went public after being a not-for-proft exchange for nearly 214 years. Most of the time, we think of the Nasdaq and NYSE as markets or exchanges, but these entities are both actual businesses providing a service to earn a profit for shareholders. The shares of these exchanges, like those of any public company, can be bought and sold by investors on an exchange. (Incidentally, both the Nasdaq and the NYSE trade on themselves.) As publicly traded companies, the Nasdaq and the NYSE must follow the standard filing requirements set out by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Now that the NYSE has become a publicly traded corporation, the differences between these two exchanges are starting to decrease, but the remaining differences should not affect how they function as marketplaces for equity traders and investors.
Conclusion
Both the NYSE and the Nasdaq markets accommodate the major portion of all equities trading in North America, but these exchanges are by no means the same. Although their differences may not affect your stock picks, your understanding of how these exchanges work will give you some insight into how trades are executed and how a market works.
Peter Lynch On Playing The Market
Even though the reality of investing is often extremely disappointing or worse, the literature in the field can be outstanding. There is no shortage of excellent books, or of journalistic and academic writing. In this article, well take a look at Peter Lynchs One Up on Wall Street and get an overview of the kind of timeless advice that he provides. (For more, see Pick Stocks Like Peter Lynch.)
Tutorial: Stock Picking Strategies
Market Timing and Daring to be Different
Lynch sums up issues on market timing beautifully. His basic idea is that, not only is it difficult to predict the markets, but small investors can be both pessimistic and optimistic at all the wrong times. Basically, it can be self-defeating to try to invest in good markets and get out of bad ones. Thats not to imply that the small investor doesnt know what theyre doing, but rather that accurate market timing, especially in the short run, is unlikely. The critical point is that you dont have to be able to predict the stock market to make money with it.
Some of the best and most successful professional traders have an uncanny ability to sniff out really good stocks, before they become trendy and overpriced. According to Lynch, this is because the risks of the stock market can be reduced by proper play, just like the risks of stud poker.
Overheated Markets
What Lynch makes clear is that there are bad times to buy. This is not market timing, it is simply true that sometimes the market is dangerously high and at other times, way too low; for buyers, this can be appealingly low. Although, according to him, there is no absolute division between safe and rash places to invest, experts, or just ordinary, sensible people who take the trouble to find out, can find reliable signs of where they should be investing. When people are getting greedy, excessively risk-friendly, and are taking too many chances, the market should be avoided, or exposure to it at least reduced. (To learn more, see our Market Crashes Tutorial.)
Nothing, says Lynch, is more dangerous than extremely overpriced stocks, and it is possible to know when this is the case. There is nothing intrinsically wrong with the stocks of good companies; what is wrong is the way people invest. This can apply just as much to so-called professionals, as to the investor on the street. Likewise, for people who just do not have the time horizon for stocks, even buying blue chips would be too risky. Lynch stresses that it is important to remember that the market, like individual stocks, can move in the opposite direction of the fundamentals. If stocks, or more likely, too much of your money in them, are unsuitable for your needs and appetite for risk, dont even think about it. Diversification is the essence of sensible investing. (To learn more, see The Importance Of Diversification.)
What Most Brokers Really Do and Dont
If you are a small investor, dont expect too much attention from the industry. Lynch warns that theres an unwritten rule in the industry that, the bigger the client, the more talking the portfolio manager has to do to please him. If you are a small fish, he may not bother much at all, just leaving the money at the mercy of the market.
Its an ugly reality that most brokers just do not have the guts to buy into unknown companies. Believe it or not, the average Wall Street professional isnt looking for reasons to buy exciting stocks, and when these companies rocket up, the broker will have all manner of excuses for not having bought.
How to Do It
Lynch explains that the next investment is never like the last one and yet we cant help readying ourselves for it anyway. The economy and markets evolve in a mixture of the unpredictable and the predictable. We cannot know how the future will unfold, but we can still invest prudently and make money. The significance of this simple fact cannot be overemphasized. The trick is to buy great companies, especially those that are undervalued and/or underappreciated. Alternatively, if you pick the right stock the market will take care of itself.
There are some common characteristics of companies that should be avoided like the plague. By using such methods as cash, debt, price to earnings ratios, profit margins, book value and dividends, you can get a pretty good idea about whether a company is worth buying into.
Its also a good idea to keep checking; after all, sooner or later every popular, fast-growing industry becomes a slow-growing industry. There is a tendency to think things will never change, and while you may always want to keep some stalwarts in your portfolio, these, too, need to be monitored. (For more, see Fundamental Analysis For Traders.)
Other Classic Blunders and Seriously Dangerous Delusions
Apart from all the above, Lynch teaches that there are many disastrous things that many people think, and do, again and again, but which can easily be avoided. You dont need to time the market to believe that if its gone down so much already, it cant get much lower. By the same token, people who think they can always tell when a stock has hit the bottom, are themselves going to get hit.
In the same vein, do not believe that stocks always come back or that conservative stocks dont fluctuate much. Similarly, believing that when the stock goes up youre right, or when its down, youre wrong, can cost you a lot of money.
The Bottom Line
Lynch summarizes his book with some succinct advice: It is inevitable that there will be sharp declines in the market that present buying opportunities. To come out ahead, you dont have to be right all the time. Nevertheless, trying to predict the market in the short term is impossible. Companies dont grow without good reason and fast growers wont stay that way forever. If you dont think you can beat the market, for whatever reason, buy a mutual fund and save both the work and the money; dont count on the industry to do a great job, on your behalf.
A Guide To Risk Warnings And Disclaimers
Risk is fundamental to the investment process, but remains a concept that is not particularly well understood by most regular investors. For this reason, risk warnings - those vaguely worded, fine print disclaimers at the bottom of any investment documents and websites - are extremely important for both buyers and sellers.
Unfortunately, although there are many warnings out there, they often remain unread or are not sufficiently explicit. An investor needs a substantial level of experience and sophistication to know what is really meant, or an advisor needs to take the time to explain it to the investor carefully in person. Yet, all too often, these conditions do not prevail. Sometimes, sellers obviously prefer to keep people in the dark in order to make a sale. In this article, we will look at the nature of risk warnings in order to figure out what gets the message across properly, and what still leaves investors not truly knowing what they could be getting into.
Where Do These Warnings Appear and Why?
Mainly for legal reasons, firms generally publish some kind of warning in their brochures and on Internet sites. The objective is not only to explain to the investor the nature of the risks involved in the particular kind of investment being offered, but also to ensure that there can be no legal comeback. The warnings are either in a separate Internet link, or in a brochure. In the latter case, it may vary from a rather small footnote to a pretty explicit and large-print explanation of what can go wrong. The length tends to vary from one sentence to a couple of pages.
Examples of Written Warnings
Lets look at some actual written examples of how investors are warned of what might happen to their money. We will see what the firms say and just how useful it is.
Example - Too vague
An investor may get back less than the amount invested. Information on past performance, where given, is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Or
The capital value of units in the fund can fluctuate and the price of units can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed.
Warnings like these are very common, regrettably. The problem with these is that there is no quantification and the warning does not really hit home. Can you lose 5% or 25%? There is a big difference between the two. It is unlikely that this warning alone will ensure that the unwary investor knows what could potentially happen to his or her money.
Example - Not easily understood by non-experts
The investments and services offered by us may not be suitable for all investors. If you have any doubts as to the merits of an investment, you should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
This certainly warns people to be careful, but how many investors really understand what is meant by suitability or would bother to double-check? In addition, if the investor trusts the seller, he will think he is being careful. The odds of an investor actually going to an advisor are low.
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Example - Relativity and context given
You should be aware that certain types of funds might carry greater investment risk than other investment funds. These include our Smaller Companies, Pacific Growth and Japan funds.
Now we are moving in the right direction. You can see from this that the same company has other, safer investments , which you may prefer. This is no longer a token warning, and points clearly to lower-risk alternatives.
Example - The losses can be BIG
Investment in the securities of smaller companies can involve greater risk than is generally associated with investment in larger, more established companies that can result in significant capital losses that may have a detrimental effect on the value of the fund.
What is good about this one is that the investor is warned that the losses can be substantial. This is still not quantified, but the point that the investment is not for the faint at heart is clear enough.
Example - Now thats a warning!
You should not buy a warrant unless you are prepared to sustain a total loss of the money you have invested plus any commission or other transaction charges.
No need for vast experience or a vivid imagination. It is quite clear that you can lose the lot.
Criteria for a Good Risk Warning
There are several criteria that a warning should fulfill if it is to get the right message across:
• Quantification: Although this is not always possible, investors should have some idea as to the proportion of their money that they could lose.
• Warnings should be easy to follow: Any risk warning should be easy to understand. If you dont understand what the risk warning is telling you, dont assume that the investment is right for you just because you trust the seller. An inexperienced investor could easily be advised to buy anything, ranging from a basic stock fund to a highly complex packaged product.
• Signing is important for both parties: If an investor has to sign the warning, this demonstrates its importance to him or her, and provides good protection to the firm. However, never sign anything you dont understand.
• Internet warnings: On the Internet, it is all too easy to click away a warning and carry on with the deal. In a perfect world, the link and entry would be very clear and the investor prompted to take the warning seriously. This is not a perfect world, however, and its up to investors to make sure they read the disclaimer before continuing.
• Personal explanations: This are the only way many investors will really understand the risks of a given investment. If the print warning does not meet your criteria, seek out personal advice. The explanation should be clear and give sufficient detail so you know what you could lose, and how, and what other products might be more or less suitable and appealing. The seller should also make a note of how the warning was presented and, if possible, get the investor to sign this too.
Ask Until You Are Sure
As a private investor, you need to request verbal and/or written information and explanations until you are sure you understand the warnings. Dont stop until you are fully aware, in quantitative terms, of what you stand to gain and lose, and what other potential investments there are with different risk/reward ratios.
The Bottom Line
It is essential that investment risk warnings be clear and sufficient not only to provide legal protection, but also to ensure that the message truly gets home. Firms and advisors should only sell products with a warning that conveys the real level of risk clearly. Unfortunately, what should be done and what is common practice are two different things. As an investor, its crucial to know how much of your money you could lose and what circumstances could cause this to occur. If you are uncomfortable with the risks of the investment, remember there are always lower-risk alternatives.
Dont Go Broke Buying Bankrupt Stocks
Sometimes, when stocks drop precipitously, they can easily over do it on the downside, as panic-selling ensues. These large declines can provide an attractive entry point for investors. The problem is that the biggest declines in stocks often occur the day that a company files for bankruptcy. Does that mean that bankrupt stocks can be a good buy? No, although some people dont realize that. Before buying that company that just filed Chapter 11, know the facts, and find out why any amount of money put in is bound to be lost.
When a Company Liquidates
Companies do not want to go bankrupt. Management will lose their jobs, and usually have equity at risk in the company. Companies declare or get forced into bankruptcy as a last resort, because they are having trouble paying their debt and need to gain protection from creditors. If the company liquidates or reorganizes, it needs to pay back everyone else in line before the common shareholders.
The hierarchy of claims goes like this: Bondholders including all classes (ie. subordinated, unsubordinated, secured, unsecured) have first claim to any assets or payments. After that the company may need to make payments for taxes, employees, trustees, etc. Then comes preferred equity holders, and, if there are any, the common equity holders get the leftovers. Its unlikely that shareholders receive anything.
When a Company Restructures
Even when the company will remain a going concern after emerging from chapter 11, the old shares are generally canceled with no payment to holders. New shares are issued, generally as a form of payment to debt holders.
An example of this was Delta Airlines. Delta filed Chapter 11 in 2005 and, following the filing, common shares traded over the counter on the pink sheets. Under its plan of reorganization, Delta was to issue new shares upon emergence from bankruptcy and cancel the old shares, with holders receiving no value. Delta even set up an online Restructuring FAQs for Investors, where they specifically outlined how old shareholders will receive nothing. The website stated:
Under the proposed plan of reorganization, current holders of Delta common stock would receive no distribution, and the securities would be canceled upon the effective date of the plan. Delta has indicated for some time that the company expected its common stock would not have any value under any plan of reorganization the company might propose, which is not uncommon in Chapter 11 proceedings.
The company also explicitly pointed out: Since the expected value of the Company will be less than creditors claims, we will not be able to exchange old stock for new stock.
Despite this clear declaration that holders of old stock would receive nothing, shares exchanged hands at 13 cents just a week before the shares were set to be canceled. Thirteen cents doesnt seem like a lot of money , but for those who were buying 10,000 shares, the loss a week later was a very real $1,300.
Why Bankrupt Stocks Dont Trade at Zero
As weve seen with Delta, the residual value of the shares is zero, so why doesnt every stock trade at zero after declaring bankruptcy? Stocks generally get close to zero on the day of the bankrupt, but can rise afterwards - sometimes even doubling or tripling. This affords some lucky individuals big gains. It is basically equivalent to a lottery ticket and generally has no basis whatsoever. So speculators, much like those who ride other penny stocks , make quick trades in the stocks trying to make big profits, but they also experience big losses. This type of strategy makes little sense with bankrupt stocks, as someone is buying something worth nothing, and hoping to sell it to someone else for more. It is an extreme example of the greater fool theory.
The other reason why a bankrupt stock wont trade at zero is because in rare cases some value may emerge for the common shareholders to claim. This will occur in a situation where the company is able to sell assets for higher than expected prices and can pay off everyone in line, and still have some left over. This, I remind you, is very rare. As stated above, the reason a company declares or gets forced into bankruptcy is because it cannot afford to pay its creditors. (Instead of investing in equity, some investors invest in distressed debt to make a profit; learn more in our article Distressed Debt An Avenue To Profit In Corporate Bankruptcy.)
What About Price-to-Book Value?
A commonly used metric to judge the value of a company is its book value. When looking at book value, the stock of a bankrupt company may look compelling, as it will trade for a small fraction of book value. This, however, cannot be used to determine that there is value in the stock. First, book value contains many things that are of little or no value during bankruptcy, such as goodwill. On top of this, any assets that get sold off in a bankruptcy proceeding will likely receive distressed prices, as buyers will not pay up for assets in liquidation.
The Bottom Line
Dont buy bankrupt stocks. Unless you have some great research on the stock and the bankruptcy proceedings, and have truly figured out that the company can generate enough cash to pay all claims and then some, there is no reason to do it. While buying a stock that was trading at $20 and is now at 20 cents may seem compelling, the vast majority of the time that 20 cents is worth nothing. So why throw away money and look like a fool? If youre looking for something else to buy, I have a great price on a bridge in Brooklyn. For related reading, check out Taking Advantage of Corporate Decline.
The Two Sides Of Dual-Class Shares
It sounds too good to be true: own a small portion of a companys total stock, but get most of the voting power. Thats the truth behind dual-class shares. They allow shareholders of non-traded stock to control terms of the company in excess of the financial stake. While many investors would like to eliminate dual-class shares, there are several hundred companies in the United States with dual A and B listed shares, or even multiple class listed shares. So, the question is, whats the impact of dual-class ownership on a companys fundamentals and performance? (To learn more, see The ABCs Of Mutual Fund Classes.)
What Are Dual-Class Shares?
When the Internet company Google went public, a lot of investors were upset that it issued a second class of shares to ensure that the firms founders and top executives maintained control. Each of the Class B shares reserved for Google insiders would carry 10 votes, while ordinary Class A shares sold to the public would get just one vote. (To learn more, see When Insiders Buy, Should Investors Join Them?)
Designed to give specific shareholders voting control, unequal voting shares are primarily created to satisfy owners who dont want to give up control, but do want the public equity market to provide financing. In most cases, these super-voting shares are not publicly traded and company founders and their families are most commonly the controlling groups in dual-class companies.
Who Lists Them?
The New York Stock Exchange allows U.S. companies to list dual-class voting shares. Once shares are listed, however, companies cannot reduce the voting rights of the existing shares or issue a new class of superior voting shares. (For more information, see The NYSE And Nasdaq: How They Work.)
Many companies list dual-class shares. Fords dual-class stock structure, for instance, allows the Ford family to control 40% of shareholder voting power with only about 4% of the total equity in the company. Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which has Warren Buffett as a majority shareholder, offers a B share with 1/30th the interest of its A-class shares, but 1/200th of the voting power. Echostar Communications demonstrates the extreme power that can be had through dual-class shares: founder and CEO Charlie Ergen has about 5% of the companys stock, but his super-voting class-A shares give him a whopping 90% of the vote.
Good or Bad?
Its easy to dislike companies with dual-class share structures, but the idea behind it has its defenders. They say that the practice insulates managers from Wall Streets short-term mindset. Founders often have a longer term vision than investors focused on the most recent quarterly figures. Since stock that provides extra voting rights often cannot be traded, it ensures the company will have a set of loyal investors during rough patches. In these cases, company performance may benefit from the existence of dual-class shares.
With that said, there are plenty of reasons to dislike these shares. They can be seen as downright unfair. They create an inferior class of shareholders and hand over power to a select few, who are then allowed to pass the financial risk onto others. With few constraints placed upon them, managers holding super-class stock can spin out of control. Families and senior managers can entrench themselves into the operations of the company, regardless of their abilities and performance. Finally, dual-class structures may allow management to make bad decisions with few consequences.
Hollinger International presents a good example of the negative effects of dual-class shares. Former CEO Conrad Black controlled all of the companys class-B shares, which gave him 30% of the equity and 73% of the voting power. He ran the company as if he were the sole owner, exacting huge management fees, consulting payments and personal dividends. Hollingers board of directors was filled with Blacks friends who were unlikely to forcefully oppose his authority. Holders of publicly traded shares of Hollinger had almost no power to make any decisions in terms of executive compensation, mergers and acquisitions, board construction poison pills or anything else for that matter. Hollingers financial and share performance suffered under Blacks control. (To learn more, see Mergers And Acquisitions: Understanding Takeovers.)
Academic research offers strong evidence that dual-class share structures hinder corporate performance. A Wharton School and Harvard Business School study shows that while large ownership stakes in managers hands tend to improve corporate performance, heavy voting control by insiders weakens it. Shareholders with super-voting rights are reluctant to raise cash by selling additional shares--that could dilute these shareholders influence. The study also shows that dual-class companies tend to be burdened with more debt than single-class companies. Even worse, dual-class stocks tend to under-perform the stock market.
The Bottom Line
Not every dual-class company is destined to perform poorly--Berkshire Hathaway, for one, has consistently delivered great fundamentals and shareholder value. Controlling shareholders normally have an interest in maintaining a good reputation with investors. Insofar as family members wield voting power, they have an emotional incentive to vote in a manner that enhances performance. All the same, investors should keep in mind the effects of dual-class ownership on company fundamentals.
Getting Into The Gold Market
From ancient civilizations through the modern era, gold has been the worlds currency of choice. Today, investors buy gold mainly as a hedge against political unrest and inflation. In addition, many top investment advisors recommend a portfolio allocation in commodities, including gold, in order to lower overall portfolio risk.
Well cover many of the opportunities for investing in gold, including bullion (i.e. gold bars), mutual funds, futures, mining companies and jewelry. With few exceptions, only bullion, futures and a handful of specialty funds provide a direct investment opportunity in gold. Other investments gain part of their value from other sources. (For background reading, see Does It Still Pay To Invest In Gold?)
Gold Bullion
This is perhaps the best-known form of direct gold ownership. Many people think of gold bullion as the large gold bars held at Fort Knox. Actually, gold bullion is any form of pure, or nearly pure, gold that has been certified for its weight and purity. This includes coins, bars, etc., of any size. A serial number is commonly attached to gold bars as well, for security purposes.
While heavy gold bars are an impressive sight, their large size (up to 400 troy ounces) makes them illiquid, and therefore costly to buy and sell. After all, if you own one large gold bar worth $100,000 as your entire holding in gold and then decide to sell 10%, you cant exactly saw off the end of the bar and sell it. On the other hand, bullion held in smaller-sized bars and coins have much more liquidity, and is a very common method of holding bullion.
Gold Coins
For decades, large quantities of gold coins have been issued by sovereign governments around the world. For investors, coins are commonly bought from private dealers at a premium of about 1-5% above their underlying gold value.
The advantages of bullion coins are:
• Their prices are conveniently available in global financial publications.
• Gold coins are often minted in smaller sizes (one ounce or less), making them a more convenient way to invest in gold than the larger bars.
• Reputable dealers can be found with minimal searching and are located in many large cities.
Caution: Older, rare gold coins have what is known as numismatic or collectors value above and beyond the underlying value of the gold. To invest strictly in gold, focus on widely circulated coins and leave the rare coins to collectors.
Some of the widely circulated gold coins include the South African krugerrand, the U.S. eagle and the Canadian maple leaf.
The main problems with gold bullion are that the storage and insurance costs, and the relatively large markup from the dealer both hinder profit potential. Also, investing in gold bullion is a direct investment in golds value, and each dollar change in the price of gold will proportionally change the value of ones holdings. Other gold investments, such as mutual funds, may be made in smaller dollar amounts than bullion, and also may not have as much direct price exposure as bullion does.
Gold ETFs and Mutual Funds
One alternative to a direct investment in gold bullion is to invest in one of the gold-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Each share of these specialized instruments represents a fixed amount of gold, such as one-tenth of an ounce. These funds may be purchased or sold in any brokerageor IRA account just like stocks. This method is therefore easier and more cost effective than owning bars or coins directly, especially for small investors, as the minimum investment is only the price of a single share of the ETF. The annual expense ratios of these funds are often less than 0.5%, much less than the fees and expenses on many other investments, including most mutual funds.
Many mutual funds own gold bullion and gold companies as part of their normal portfolios, but investors should be aware that only a few mutual funds focus solely on gold investing; most own a number of other commodities. The major advantages of the gold-only oriented mutual funds are:
• Low cost and low minimum investment required
• Diversification among different companies
• Ease of ownership in a brokerage account or an IRA
• Require no individual company research
Some funds invest in the indexes of mining companies, others are tied directly to gold prices, while still others are actively managed. Read their prospectuses for more information. Traditional mutual funds tend to be actively managed, while ETFs adhere to a passive index-tracking strategy, and therefore have lower expense ratios. For the average gold investor, however, mutual funds and ETFs are now generally the easiest and safest way to invest in gold.
Gold Futures and Options
Futures are contracts to buy or sell a given amount of an item, in this case gold, on a particular date in the future. Futures are traded in contracts, not shares, and represent a predetermined amount of gold. As this amount can be large (for example, 100 troy ounces x $1,000/ounce = $100,000), futures are more suitable for experienced investors. People often use futures because the commissions are very low, and the margin requirements are much lower than in traditional equity investments. Some contracts settle in dollars while others settle in gold, so investors must pay attention to the contract specifications to avoid having to take delivery of 100 ounces of gold on the settlement date. (For more on this, read Trading Gold And Silver Futures Contracts.)
Options on futures are an alternative to buying a futures contract outright. These give the owner of the option the right to buy the futures contract within a certain time frame at a preset price. One benefit of an option is it both leverages your original investment and limits losses to the price paid. A futures contract bought on margin can require more capital than originally invested if losses mount quickly. Unlike with a futures investment, which is based on the current value of gold, the downside to options is that the investor must pay a premium to the underlying value of the gold to own the option. Because of the volatile nature of futures and options, they may be unsuitable for many investors. Even so, futures remain the cheapest (commissions interest expense) way to buy or sell gold when investing large sums.
Gold Mining Companies
Companies that specialize in mining and refining will also profit from a rising gold price. Investing in these types of companies can be an effective way to profit from gold, and can also carry lower risk than other investment methods.
The largest gold mining companies operate extensive global operations; therefore, business factors common to many other large companies influence their investment success. As a result, these companies can still show profit in times of flat or declining gold prices. One way they do this is by hedging against a fall in gold prices as a normal part of their business. Some do this and some dont. Even so, gold mining companies may provide a safer way to invest in gold than through direct ownership of bullion. However, the research and selection of individual companies requiresdue diligence on the investors part. As this is a time consuming endeavor, it may not be feasible for many investors.
Gold Jewelry
Most of the global gold production is used to make jewelry. With global population and wealth growing annually, demand for gold used in jewelry production should increase over time as well. On the other hand, gold jewelry buyers are shown to be somewhat price sensitive, buying less if the price rises swiftly.
Buying jewelry at retail prices involves a substantial markup – up to 400% over the underlying gold value. Better jewelry bargains may be found at estate sales and auctions. The advantage of buying jewelry this way is that there is no retail markup; the disadvantage is the time spent searching for valuable pieces. Nonetheless, jewelry ownership provides the most enjoyable way to own gold, even if it is not the most profitable from an investment standpoint. As an art form, gold jewelry is beautiful. As an investment, it is mediocre - unless you are the jeweler.
Conclusion
Larger investors, who wish to have direct exposure to the price of gold, may prefer to invest in gold directly through bullion. There is also a level of comfort found in owning a physical asset instead of simply a piece of paper. The downside is the slight premium to the value of gold paid on the initial purchase, as well as the storage costs.
For investors who are a bit more aggressive, futures and options will certainly do the trick. But, buyers should beware: these investments are derivatives of golds price and can see sharp moves up and down, especially when done on margin. On the other hand, futures are probably the most efficient way to invest in gold, except for the fact that contracts must be rolled over periodically as they expire.
The idea that jewelry is an investment is quaint, but naive. There is too much of a spread between the price of most jewelry and its gold value for it to be considered a true investment. Instead, the average gold investor should consider gold oriented mutual funds and ETFs, as these securities generally provide the easiest and safest way to invest in gold.
5 Popular Portfolio Types
Stock investors constantly hear the wisdom of diversification. The concept is to simply not put all of your eggs in one basket, which in turn helps mitigate risk, and generally leads to better performance or return on investment. Diversifying your hard-earned dollars does make sense, but there are different ways of diversifying, and different portflio types. We look at the following portfolio types and suggest how to get started building them: aggressive, defensive, income, speculative and hybrid. It is important to understand that building a portfolio will require research and some effort. Having said that, lets have a peek across our five portfolios to gain a better understanding of each and get you started.
The Aggressive Portfolio
An aggressive portfolio or basket of stocks includes those stocks with high risk/high reward proposition. Stocks in the category typically have a high beta, or sensitivity to the overall market. Higher beta stocks experience larger fluctuations relative to the overall market on a consistent basis. If your individual stock has a beta of 2.0, it will typically move twice as much in either direction to the overall market - hence, the high-risk, high-reward description.
Most aggressive stocks (and therefore companies) are in the early stages of growth, and have a unique value proposition. Building an aggressive portfolio requires an investor who is willing to seek out such companies, because most of these names, with a few exceptions, are not going to be common household companies. Look online for companies with earnings growth that is rapidly accelerating, and have not been discovered by Wall Street. The most common sectors to scrutinize would be technology, but many other firms in various sectors that are pursuing an aggressive growth strategy can be considered. As you might have gathered, risk management becomes very important when building and maintaining an aggressive portfolio. Keeping losses to a minimum and taking profit are keys to success in this type of portfolio.
The Defensive Portfolio
Defensive stocks do not usually carry a high beta, and usually are fairly isolated from broad market movements. Cyclical stocks, on the other hand, are those that are most sensitive to the underlying economic business cycle. For example, during recessionary times, companies that make the basics tend to do better than those that are focused on fads or luxuries. Despite how bad the economy is, companies that make products essential to everyday life will survive. Think of the essentials in your everyday life, and then find the companies that make these consumer staple products.
The opportunity of buying cyclical stocks is that they offer an extra level of protection against detrimental events. Just listen to the business stations and you will hear portfolios managers talking about drugs, defense and tobacco. These really are just baskets of stocks that these managers are recommending based upon where the business cycle is and where they think it is going. However, the products and services of these companies are in constant demand. A defensive portfolio is prudent for most investors. A lot of these companies offer a dividend as well which helps minimize downside capital losses. (Find out how these securities can protect you from a market bust.
The Income Portfolio
An income portfolio focuses on making money through dividends or other types of distributions to stakeholders. These companies are somewhat like the safe defensive stocks but should offer higher yields. An income portfolio should generate positive cash flow. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) and master limited partnerships (MLP) are excellent sources of income producing investments. These companies return a great majority of their profits back to shareholders in exchange for favorable tax status. REITs are an easy way to invest in real estate without the hassles of owning real property: vacancy issues, repairs and the other types of issues a landlord faces when trying to rent property. Keep in mind, however, that these stocks are also subject to the economic climate. REITs are groups of stocks that take a beating during an economic downturn, as building and buying activity dries up.
An Income portfolio is a nice complement to most peoples paycheck or other retirement income. Investors should be on the lookout for stocks that have fallen out of favor and have still maintained a high dividend policy. These are the companies that can not only supplement income but also provide capital gains. Utilities and other slow growth industries are an ideal place to start your search. (Find out how this first love still holds its bloom as it ages. To learn more, read Dividends Still Look Good After All These Years.)
The Speculative Portfolio
A speculative portfolio is the closest to a pure gamble. A speculative portfolio presents more risk than any others discussed here. Finance gurus suggest that a maximum of 10% of ones investable assets be used to fund a speculative portfolio. Speculative plays could be initial public offerings (IPOs) or stocks that are rumored to be takeover targets. Technology or healthcare firms that are in the process of researching a breakthrough product, or a junior oil company which is about to release its initial production results, would fall into this category.
Another classic speculative play is to make an investment decision based upon a rumor that the company is subject to a takeover. One could argue that the widespread popularity of leveraged ETFs in todays markets represent speculation. Again, these types of investments are alluring: picking the right one could lead to huge profits in a short amount of time. Speculation may be the one portfolio that, if done correctly, requires the most homework. Speculative stocks are typically trades, and not your classic buy and hold investment.
The Hybrid Portfolio
Building a hybrid type of portfolio means venturing into other investments, such as bonds, commodities, real estate and even art. Basically, there is a lot of flexibility in the hybrid portfolio approach. Traditionally, this type of portfolio would contain blue chip stocks and some high grade government or corporate bonds. REITs and MLPs may also be an investable theme for the balanced portfolio. A common fixed income investment strategy approach advocates buying bonds with various maturity dates, and is essentially a diversification approach within the bond asset class itself. Basically, a hybrid portfolio would include a mix of stocks and bonds in a relatively fixed allocation proportions. This type of approach offers diversification benefits across multiple asset classes as equities and fixed income securities tend to have a negative correlation with one another.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, investors should consider ALL of these portfolios and decide on the right allocation across all five. Here, we have laid the foundation by defining five of the more common types of portfolios. Building an investment portfolio does require more effort than a passive, index investing approach. By going it alone, you will be required to monitor your portfolio(s) and rebalance more frequently, thus racking up commission fees. Too much or too little exposure to any portfolio type introduces additional risks. Despite the extra required effort, defining and building a portfolio will increase your investing confidence, and give you control over your finances.
Dollar-Cost Averaging Pays
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is a wealth-building strategy that involves investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals over a long period. This type of systematic investment program is familiar to many investors, as they practice it with their 401(k) and 403(b) retirement plans. When it comes to implementing investment strategies based on dollar-cost averaging, there may be no better investment vehicle than the no-load mutual fund - the structure of these mutual funds almost seems to have been designed with dollar-cost averaging in mind. Here we look at why, helping you use dollar-cost averaging when investing in mutual funds .
Review of Dollar-Cost Averaging
Dollar-cost averaging is carried out simply by investing a fixed dollar amount into your mutual fund (or other investment instrument) at pre-determined intervals. The amount of money invested at each interval remains the same over time, but the number of shares purchased varies based on the market value of the shares at the time of a purchase. When the markets are up, you buy fewer shares per dollar invested due to the higher cost per share. When the markets are down, the situation is reversed and you purchase a greater of number of shares per dollar invested. Its a strategic way to invest because you buy more shares when the cost is low, so you get an average cost per share over time, meaning you dont have to invest the time and effort to monitor market movements and strategically time your investments.
Why Dollar-Cost Averaging Works Well With Mutual Funds
The expense ratio that mutual fund investors pay to invest in a fund is a fixed percentage of your contribution. That percentage takes the same relative bite out of a $25 investment or regular installment amount as it would out of a $250 or $2,500 lump-sum investment. Compared tostock trades , for example, where a flat commission is charged on each transaction, the value of the fixed-percentage expense ratio is startlingly clear. Consider the following:
Example A
• By making a $25 installment in a mutual fund that charges a 20 basis-point expense ratio, you pay $0.05, which amounts to a 0.2% fee.
• By making a $250 lump-sum investment in the same fund, you pay $0.50, or a 0.2% fee.
Example B
• By making a $25 investment in a typical stock through a broker who charges $10 commission per trade, you pay $10, which amounts to a 40% fee.
• By making a $250 investment in a typical stock through a broker who charges $10 commission per trade, you pay $10.00, which amounts to a 4% fee.
The examples above show that you have to buy more stock in order for the percentage of the commissions to go down. In comparison, the structure of the mutual fund expense ratio makes the investment more accessible: the no-commission trading of the mutual fund coupled with low minimum investment requirements allows almost everyone to afford mutual funds.
Furthermore, many mutual funds waive their required minimums for investors who set up automatic contribution plans (plans that put dollar-cost averaging into action). All this enables low-wage earners and folks with tight budgets to invest $10 or $25 or another nominal amount on a regular basis without worrying about the impact of trading costs. While small contributions may not seem impressive at first glance, they enable investors to get into the habit of saving, and can really add up over the course of a lifetime thanks to the power of compounding.
Of course, dollar-cost averaging with mutual funds isnt a strategy that is limited to use by the less than affluent. If you have a large sum of money and invest it all at once, you face the risk that declining financial markets will take a huge chunk out of your portfolio. Dollar-cost averaging offers the perfect solution to your dilemma. To facilitate a long-term strategy for investing large sums of money, many mutual funds offer investors the ability to make a lump-sum investment in a money market fund, from which predetermined amounts are automatically invested into a designated higher-risk mutual fund at pre-arranged intervals. Its a convenient, cost-efficient solution that mitigates concerns about investing a large sum of money at the wrong time.
A Long-Term Strategy
Regardless of the amount of money that you have to invest, dollar-cost averaging is a long-term strategy. While the financial markets are in a constant state of flux, they tend to move in the same general direction over fairly long periods of time. Bear markets and bull markets can last for months, if not years. Because of these trends, dollar-cost averaging is generally not a particularly valuable short-term strategy.
Consider, for example, an investor making 10 purchases of a mutual funds shares over the course of a month. While it is unlikely that the purchase price of the shares will be identical for each transaction, it is also unlikely that they will differ significantly over such a short time frame.
On the other hand, over the course of a market cycle lasting five or 10 years and including a bull market and a bear market, the price of a given security is likely to change significantly. Dollar-cost averaging will help to ensure that your average cost per share represents both the premiumsof a bull market and the discounts of a bear market, as opposed to just the premiums usually paid by investors in a bull market.
Conclusion: Keep Costs in Mind
While low, percentage-based expense ratios make mutual funds the perfect vehicle for dollar-cost averaging, it pays to exercise caution when it comes to your investments . Some mutual funds charge low-balance fees, sales loads, purchase fees and/or exchanges fees. Be sure to read the disclosure materials prior to investing and make sure you are aware of all expenses associated with your investments.
Investing In Oil And Gas UITs
The substantial rise in energy prices in the mid-2000s attracted many investors seeking aggressive growth and profits in the oil and gas industry. Although many of these investors cashed in on the gains posted by various energy and natural resources equities, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds , there are other alternatives available that provide more direct exposure to the energy markets.
Limited partnerships, working interests and unit investment trusts (UITs) all provide pass-through treatment of both income and deductions derived from oil and gas investments at the wellhead. This article will examine the nature and purpose of oil and gas UITs, their advantages and disadvantages, and help you decide if they should be fueling your portfolio.
Nature and Composition
By definition, oil and gas UITs are very similar to other UITs that invest in stocks or real estate. Each trust is broken down into individual units that are priced and sold to investors. Each unit represents an undivided proportional interest in all of the oil and gas properties held by the trust, and each trust has a set maturity date upon which all gains and losses from the sale of the assets are dispersed to the unit-holders.
Unlike stock unit trusts or real estate investment trusts (REITs), oil and gas UITs invest directly in either production or exploratory drilling oil and gas assets, then pass through the income and expenses realized from the actual production of oil and natural gas.
Who Should Invest in Oil and Gas UITs?
Investors who are seeking more direct, tax-advantaged exposure to oil and gas investments should consider oil and gas UITs, as the UITs can pass through deductible operational expenses and investment income that is eligible for the depletion allowance.
Energy-focused mutual funds may only buy equity interests in various oil, gas and other energy companies, but seldom offer direct participation of any kind. Energy mutual funds cannot offer pass-through treatment, and usually can only post fully taxable dividends and capital gains.
Furthermore, oil and gas UITs will not post taxable capital gains of any kind until the trust matures, unlike mutual funds that pass through capital gains annually. Aggressive investors seeking larger profits in the energy sector may also benefit from the more direct arrangement of oil and gas UITs as opposed to energy mutual funds.
Pros and Cons
One of the main advantages that holders of energy trusts enjoy is the pass-through tax status, similar to that of limited partnerships or direct working interests. As stated previously, income derived from oil and gas UITs can be eligible for the depletion deduction, and a proportional share of deductible operational expenses is passed through as well.
It should be noted that oil and gas UITs are usually riskier by nature than energy mutual funds, as any properties that cease to produce, for whatever reason, during the tenure of the trust cannot be replaced until maturity. Another factor to consider is that oil and gas units are wasting assets, as their value will automatically decline as producing properties within the trust become depleted over time. Furthermore, investor income is reduced by maintenance and operating costs associated with oil and gas production at the wellhead, such as electric fees, pumping fees and parts replacement.
Income realized from oil and gas UITs is also subject to fluctuation with the rise and fall of energy prices. This risk can be at least partially offset with an investment in both oil and gas properties within the same trust, as the prices of oil and gas do not necessarily move in lock-step.
Finally, oil and gas UITs that participate in drilling of any kind include the risk of unsuccessful development, where one or more wells that are drilled produce little or no oil or gas. This occurrence can obviously lower the value of the trust, as well as deprive the investor of income from the anticipated current production that is never realized.
How Do I Pick the Right Oil and Gas UIT?
When choosing a UIT that invests in oil and gas properties, the most important criteria for investors generally will be the level of risk inherent in the trust. Aggressive trusts that focus on exploratory drilling projects are much more speculative in nature than UITs that invest solely in producing properties. However, successful exploratory drilling also offers greater tax deductions and the potential for higher income. Moderate or conservative investors seeking a regular stream of income should probably restrict their investing to UITs that contain mature producing oil and gas fields.
The Bottom Line
Although oil and gas UITs are similar securities to REITs or trusts that invest in stocks or bonds in many respects, they offer a relatively unique set of advantages and risks to investors. Those seeking more direct exposure to the energy sector (as well as those needing tax-advantaged income) can benefit from investing in these trusts. Investors considering UITs should consult with a tax advisor to determine the efficacy of UITs given their individual tax situations.
Investing In Russia: A Risky Game?
Russia has never been the easiest country to understand. Winston Churchill described the country as a riddle, wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, and today a lot of investors would share his viewpoint.
Its still hard for many investors to shake their memories of the Soviet era. Blame it on the heavy-handed government and crony capitalism. Nonetheless, in Russia it is still possible to generate returns. The trick for investors is to understand Russias opportunities and its risks.
Bust to Boom
For investors, Russia has ample economic and market growth opportunities. Since devaluation of the rouble and Russias financial crisis in 1998, growth in Russia has increased steadily to keep relatively on par with other dominant emerging markets such as Brazil, India and China. Equity markets in the country have soared. Between 2005 and 2010, the Russian stock exchange has delivered steady double-digit returns to investors, and the countrys performance is expected to continue showing sign of improvement.
Russia has one of the largest populations in the world - around 150 million people - many of whom have been getting slowly wealthier for the past decade and are spending an increasing amount of their income on luxury goods, services and holidays. A 2010 per capita GDP of approximately $16,000 puts it in the higher reaches of upper middle-income countries. As Russia makes significant strides to tap into its natural resource pool and implements policies to reduce disparity, per capita growth is likely to show improvement as well. A GDP growth rate averaging 7% between the crises of 1998 and 2008 made it not only a large market, but a large market that was growing rapidly. While Russia has been the laggard of the so-called BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China), Russia has enjoyed plenty of foreign investment. (Emerging markets provide new investment opportunities, but there are risks - both to residents and foreign investors. Check out What Is An Emerging Market Economy?)
Natural Resources
Plentiful natural resources represent Russias biggest draw for investors. Oil and gas play a major part in the Russian economy in terms of production for internal purposes and exports. In 2010 the country had nearly 80 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and tops the worlds rankings for natural gas. Russia also has exposure to the energy industry through a number of key joint ventures throughout Africa and other energy producing nations. But oil and gas are not the only natural resources that are plentiful in Russia. The mining and production of precious and non-precious metals is an enormous industry in the country, with great promise.
That being said, energy and minerals are part blessing, part curse. Russias heavy dependence on resources represents a risk. When you invest in Russia, you have to keep in mind the direction of commodity prices.
It is a very resource rich country, not only in hydrocarbons and minerals, but also in terms of human capital, talent and education, Russias Soviet tradition of education - superb in math and the hard sciences, excellent in languages - still produces plenty of brainy workers. Russia has an astounding 99% literacy rate and approximately half of the countrys citizens have some sort of post secondary education.
Politics
Russian politics may represent the biggest investment risk. Take Yukos, arguably one of Russias biggest and most successful oil companies. In 2003 its CEO, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, ran afoul of then-president Vladimir Putin and Russias courts convicted him on trumped-up charges that resulted in an eight-year jail sentence. Yukos was forced into bankruptcy, and its pieces were sold off at a discount to Putins allies for fractions of the actual market value. Yukos shareholders lost their shirts in the affair.
Russia has at times even made it difficult for foreign investors to operate in a environment free from bureaucratic pressures. For example, in an attempt to persuade shareholders to sell their stake in the TNK-BP joint venture, police raided BPs Moscow office in 2008. Various other barriers on international corporations such as Carrefour and DeBeers have forced them to withdraw their operations in Russia. The Russian government has a record of putting pressure on foreign energy companies as part of its effort to consolidate control over the countrys largest and most important hydrocarbon deposits.
Corruption and Lack of Governance
Corruption and weak corporate transparency is another major ongoing risk for investors. Many analysts admit say that this is a big problem - particularly among some of the smaller companies, whose accounts are not particularly transparent.
Even well-known and respected companies like Ikea which heavily focus on practicing ethical businesses activities declared a moratorium on subsequent Russian investments due to the ongoing concerns of corruption. Based on the Corruption Perception Index, Russia has a lot of obstacles to fair and efficient business practices. Even Iran, Libya and Pakistan are perceived as having less corruption.
The Bottom Line
As they seek investment opportunities around the world, investors need knowledge of the national risks that may threaten their investment. We all know that the high returns come from high risk investments and emerging markets are the likely area to find returns that outperform those of the developed nations. While Russia offers high returns, it is dominated by energy companies, the state of regulations still under development, and there are political risks that are larger in that country than others. The striking feature of investing in Russia - the risks and rewards are both high. (Get the full story on this asset class before you write it off as too risky.
5 Economic Effects Of Country Liberalization
August 24 2011| Filed Under » Economics, Economy, International Markets, Investing Basics, Investment
When a nation becomes liberalized, the economic effects can be profound for the country and for investors. Economic liberalization refers to a country opening up to the rest of the world with regards to trade, regulations, taxation and other areas that generally affect business in the country. As a general rule, you can determine to what degree a country is liberalized economically by how easy it is to invest and do business in the country. All developed countries (First World) have already gone through this liberalization process, so the focus in this article is more on the developing and emerging countries. TUTORIAL:Economic Indicators To Know
Removing Barriers to International Investing
Investing in emerging market countries can sometimes be an impossible task if the country youre investing in has several barriers to entry. These barriers can include tax laws, foreign investment restrictions, legal issues and accounting regulations that can make it difficult or impossible to gain access to the country. The economic liberalization process begins by relaxing these barriers and relinquishing some control over the direction of the economy to the private sector. This often involves some form of deregulation and a privatization of companies. (For related reading, seeThe Risks Of Investing In Emerging Markets.)
Unrestricted Flow of Capital
The primary goals of economic liberalization are the free flow of capital between nations and the efficient allocation of resources and competitive advantages. This is usually done by reducing protectionist policies such as tariffs, trade laws and other trade barriers. One of the main effects of this increased flow of capital into the country is that it makes it cheaper for companies to access capital from investors. A lower cost of capital allows companies to undertake profitable projects that they may not have been able to with a higher cost of capital pre-liberalization, leading to higher growth rates.
We saw this type of growth scenario unfold in China in the late 1970s as the Chinese government set on a path of significant economic reform. With a massive amount of resources (both human and natural), they believed the country was not growing and prospering to its full potential. Thus, to try to spark faster economic growth, China began major economic reforms that included encouraging private ownership of businesses and property, relaxing international trade and foreign investment restrictions, and relaxing state control over many aspects of the economy. Subsequently, over the next several decades, China averaged a phenomenal real GDP growth rate of over 10%.
Stock Market Performance
In general, when a country becomes liberalized, the stock market values also rise. Fund managers and investors are always on the lookout for new opportunities for profit, and so a whole country that becomes available to be invested in will tend to cause a surge of capital to flow in. The situation is similar in nature to the anticipation and flow of money into an initial public offering (IPO). A private company that was previously unavailable to an investor that suddenly becomes available typically causes a similar valuation and cash flow pattern. However, like an IPO, the initial enthusiasm also eventually dies down and returns become more normal and more in line with fundamentals.
Political Risks Reduced
In addition, liberalization reduces the political risks to investors. For the government to continue to attract more foreign investment, other areas beyond the ones mentioned earlier have to be strengthened as well. These are areas that support and foster a willingness to do business in the country such as a strong legal foundation to settle disputes, fair and enforceable contract laws, property laws, and others that allow businesses and investors to operate with confidence. Also, government bureaucracy is a common target area to be streamlined and improved in the liberalization process. All these changes together lower the political risks for investors, and this lower level of risk is also part of the reason the stock market in the liberalized country rises once the barriers are gone.
Diversification for Investors
Investors can also benefit by being able to invest a portion of their portfolio into a diversifying asset class. In general, the correlation between developed countries such as the United States and undeveloped or emerging countries is relatively low. Although the overall risk of the emerging country by itself may be higher than average, adding a low correlation asset to your portfolio can reduce your portfolios overall risk profile. (For more, see Does Investing Internationally Really Offer Diversification?)
However, a distinction should be made that although the correlation may be low, when a country becomes liberalized, the correlation may actually rise over time. This happens because the country becomes more integrated with the rest of the world and has become more sensitive to events that happen outside the country. A high degree of integration can also lead to increased contagion risk – which is the risk that crises that occur in different countries cause crises in the domestic country.
A prime example of this is the European Union (EU) and its unprecedented economic and political union. The countries in the EU are so integrated with regard to monetary policy and laws that a crisis in one country has a high probability of spreading to other countries in the EU. This is exactly what happened in the financial crisis that started in 2008-2009. Weaker countries within the EU (such as Greece) began to develop severe financial problems that quickly spread to other EU members. In this instance, investing in several different EU member countries would not have provided much of a diversification benefit as the high level of economic integration in the EU had increased correlations and increased contagion risks to the investor.
The Bottom Line
Economic liberalization is generally thought of as a beneficial and desirable process for emerging and developing countries. The underlying goal is to have unrestricted capital flowing into and out of the country in order to boost growth and efficiencies within the home country. The effects following liberalization are what should interest investors as it can provide new opportunities for diversification and profit.
Surviving Bear Country
A bear market refers to a decline in stock prices of at least 15-20%, coupled with pessimistic sentiment underlying the market. Clearly no stock investor looks forward to these periods. Dont despair, there is hope! In this article we will walk you through some of the most important investment strategies and mindsets that one can use to limit losses - or even make gains - while the stock market is performing in such a manner.
Be Realistic!
First off, having a realistic mindset is one the most important things to do during an economic slowdown. Remember that its normal for the stock market to have negative years - its all part of the business cycle.
After a raging bull market, its easy to forget the bad times. Take, for example, the late 1990s; it was a time of spectacular growth in the equity markets, punctuated by gains in the S
Callable CDs: Check The Fine Print
If youre looking for bigger yields with limited risk, callable certificates of deposit (CD ) might be right for you. They promise higher returns than regular CDs and are FDIC insured. However, there are a few things in the fine print that you should be aware of before you turn your money over to the bank or brokerage firm, otherwise, you could end up very disappointed.
Just like a regular CD, a callable CD is a certificate of deposit that pays a fixed interest rate over its lifetime. The feature that differentiates a callable CD from a traditional CD is that the issuer owns a call option on the CD and can redeem, or call, your CD from you for the full amount before it matures. In this article, we will provide you with some important terms to watch for in the fine print of your callable CDs , should you decide to invest.
Important Terms
Callable CDs are similar in many ways to callable bonds.
Callable Date
This is the date that the issuer can call your certificate of deposit . Lets say, for example, that the call date is six months. This means that six months after you buy the CD, the bank can decide whether it wants to take back your CD and return your money with interest. Every six months after the call date, the bank will have that same option again. Well get to why the bank would want to call back the certificate shortly.
Maturity Date
The maturity date is how long the issuer can keep your money. The farther in the future the maturity date, the higher the interest rate you should expect to receive. Make sure you dont confuse maturity date with the call date. For instance, a two-year callable CD does not necessarily mature in two years. The two years refers to the period of time you have before the bank can call the CD away from you. The actual amount of time you must commit your money could be much longer. Its common to find callable CDs with maturities in the range of 15 to 20 years.
To Call, or Not to Call
A change in prevailing interest rates is the main reason the bank or brokerage firm will recall your CD on the callable date. Basically, the bank will ask itself if its getting the best deal possible based on the current interest rate environment. (To learn how interest rate changes affect other investments , see How Interest Rates Affect The Stock Market and Its In Your Interest.)
Interest Rates Decline
If interest rates fall, the issuer might be able to borrow money for less than its paying you. This means the bank will likely call back the CD and force you to find a new vehicle to invest your money in.
Example - Callable CD When Rates Decline
Suppose you have a $10,000 one-year callable CD that pays 5% with a five-year maturity. As the one-year call date approaches, prevailing interest rates drop to 4%. The bank has therefore dropped its rates too, and is only paying 4% on its newly issued one-year callable CDs.
Why should I pay you 5%, when I can borrow the same $10,000 for 4%?, your banker is going ask. Heres your principal back plus any interest we owe you. Thank you very much for your business.
The good news is that you got a higher CD rate for one year. But what do you do with the $10,000 now? Youve run into the problem of reinvestment risk.
Perhaps you were counting on the $500 per year interest ($10,000 x 5% = $500) to help pay for your annual vacation. Now youre stuck with just $400 ($10,000 x 4% = $400) if you buy another one-year callable CD. Your other choice is to try to find a place to put your money that pays 5% such as by purchasing a corporate bond - but that might involve more risk than you wanted for this $10,000 . (For more on the risks of these bonds, see Corporate Bonds: An Introduction To Credit Risk.)
Interest Rates Rise
If prevailing interest rates increase, your bank probably wont call your CD. Why would it? It would cost more to borrow elsewhere.
Example - Callable CD When Rates Rise
Lets look at your $10,000 one-year callable CD again. Its paying you 5%. This time, assume that prevailing rates have jumped to 6% by the time the callable date hits. Youll continue to get your $500 per year, even though newly issued callable CDs earn more. But what if youd like to get your money out and reinvest at the new, higher rates?
Sorry, your banker says, only we can decide if youll get your money early.
Unlike the bank, you cant call the CD and get your principal back - at least not without penalties called early surrender charges. As a result, youre stuck with the lower rate. If rates continue to climb while you own the callable CD, the bank will probably keep your money until the CD matures.
What to Watch For
Whos Selling
Anyone can be a deposit broker to sell CDs. There are no licensing or certification requirements. This means you should always check with your states securities regulator to see whether your broker or your brokers company has any history of complaints or fraud.
Early Withdrawal
If you want to get your money before the maturity date, there is a possibility youll run into surrender charges. These fees cover the maintenance costs of the CD and are put in place to discourage you from trying to withdraw your money early. You wont always have to pay these fees; if you have held the certificate for a long enough period of time these fees will often be waived.
Check the Issuer
Each bank or thrift institution depositor is limited to $100,000 in FDIC insurance. There is a potential problem if your broker invests your CD money with an institution where you have other FDIC insured accounts. If the total is more than $100,000, you run the risk of exceeding your FDIC coverage. (To learn more, read Are Your Bank Deposits Insured?)
Wrap Up: Callable or Non-Callable?
With all of the extra hassle they involve, why would you bother to purchase a callable CD rather than a non-callable one? Ultimately, callable CDs shift the interest-rate risk to you, the investor. Because youre taking on this risk, youll tend to receive a higher return than youd find with a traditional CD with a similar maturity date.
Before you invest, you should compare the rates of the two products. Then, think about which direction you think interest rates are headed in the future. If you have concerns about reinvestment risk and prefer simplicity, callable CDs probably arent for you.
Use this checklist when you are shopping for callable CDs to help you keep track of the important information.
Callable CD Checklist
Traditional CD Callable CD #1 Callable CD #2
Callable Date N/A
Maturity Date
Seller Background
Surrender Fee
Issuer
Interest Rate
5 Costs Of Financial Procrastination
As long-time procrastinators will attest, this deferral of something that needs to be done is rarely an isolated instance, and it usually occurs habitually and for trivial reasons.
Procrastination can have a number of undesirable consequences, such as missed deadlines, wasted opportunities and sub-standard work as a result of insufficient time. The costs of procrastination, while substantial, are not easy to quantify.
But what can be quantified – at least to some extent – are the costs associated with putting off decisions and actions when it comes to personal finances and investments. Beware of such financial procrastination, because the price tag of needless delay in this crucial area can be steep.
Five Costs of Financial Procrastination
Broadly speaking, we can classify the costs of financial procrastination in five main areas:
1. Delays in investing
2. Putting off routine investment decisions
3. Tardiness in organizing personal finances
4. Late filing of taxes
5. Procrastinating on major financial decisions
1. Investing Delays
Delays in putting your money to work through investments can eventually end up costing you a lot. Consider the case of two hypothetical investors, Ms. A. Lacrity and Mr. D. Lay, who begin investing $2,000 annually at ages 30 and 40 respectively in a tax-deferred account such as anindividual retirement account (IRA). Lets assume that the long-term average annual rate of return earned by both investors on their investments is 5%. By the time they turn 60, A. Lacritys IRA would have grown to about $132,878, twice the size of D. Lays IRA, as Table 1 shows.
Annual Rate of Return 5.00% 5.00%
Period (years) 30 20
Annual Investment $2,000 $2,000
Total Investment (I) $60,000 $40,000
Total Value (V) $132,878 $66,132
Growth (V – I) $72,878 $26,132
Cost Of Procrastination $26,746
Of course, the fact that A. Lacrity invested an additional $20,000 over 10 years accounts for part of the difference in the two portfolios . But a substantial part of the difference – or $26,746 – can also be attributed to the compounding effect of the $20,000 for the additional 10 years that A. Lacrity has been investing. Another way of looking at this from D. Lays viewpoint is that this $26,746 in incremental growth represents his cost of procrastination for the 10-year period (recall that he commenced investing at age 40, rather than at 30).
Two points need to be noted here:
• The higher the rate of return, the higher the cost of procrastination – According to Ibbotson Associates, the compound annualized return for the S
Knowing Your Rights As A Shareholder
Say you just bought stock in Disney (NYSE:DIS). As a part owner of the company does this mean you and the family can hit Disneyland for free this summer? Why is it that Anheuser-Busch (NYSE:BUD) shareholders dont get a case of beer each quarter? (Forget the dividends!) Although these perks are highly unlikely, they do raise a good question: what rights and privileges do shareholders have? While they may not be entitled to free rides and beer, many investors are unaware of their rights as shareowners. In this article, we discuss what privileges come with being ashareholder and which do not.
Levels of Ownership Rights
Before getting into the nitty-gritty of shareholder rights, lets first look at a companys pecking order. Every company has a hierarchical structure of rights that accompany the three main classes of securities that companies issue: bonds, preferred stock and common stock (To learn more, see our Stocks Basics Tutorial.)
The priority of each security is best understood by looking at what happens when a company goes bankrupt. You may think that as an owner youd be first in line for getting a portion of the companys assets if it went belly up. After all, you did pay for them. In reality, as a common shareholder you are at the very bottom of the corporate food chain when a company liquidates; you are the corporate equivalent of a hyena that eats only after the lions have eaten their share. During insolvency proceedings, it is the creditors who first get dibs on the companys assets to settle their outstanding debts, then the bondholders get first crack at those leftovers, followed by preferred shareholders and finally the common shareholders . This hierarchy forms according to the principle of absolute priority.
In addition to the rules of absolute priority, there are other rights that differ with each class of security. For example, usually a companys charter states that only the common stockholders have voting privileges and preferred stockholders must receive dividends before common stockholders. The rights of bondholders are determined differently because a bond agreement, or indenture, represents a contract between the issuer and the bondholder. The payments and privileges the bondholder receives are governed by the indenture (tenets of the contract).
Risks and Rewards
Sounds pretty bad for common shareholders, doesnt it? Dont be fooled, common shareholders are still the part owners of the business and if the business is able to turn a profit, then common shareholders gain. The liquidation preference we described makes logical sense: shareholders take on a greater risk (they receive next to nothing if the firm goes bankrupt) but they also have a greater reward potential through exposure to share price appreciation when the company succeeds, whereas there are usually fewer preferred stocks held by a select few. As such, preferred stocks generally experience less price fluctuation.
Common Shareholders Six Main Rights
1. Voting Power on Major Issues
This includes electing directors and proposals for fundamental changes affecting the company such as mergers or liquidation. Voting takes place at the companys annual meeting. If you cant attend, you can do so by proxy and mail in your vote.
2. Ownership in a Portion of the Company
Previously we discussed the event of a corporate liquidation where bondholders and preferred shareholders are paid first. However, when business thrives, common shareholders own a piece of something that has value. Said another way, they have a claim on a portion of the assets owned by the company. As these assets generate profits, and as the profits are reinvested in additional assets, shareholders see a return in the form of increased share value as stock prices rise.
• The Right to Transfer Ownership
Right to transfer ownership means shareholders are allowed to trade their stock on an exchange. The right to transfer ownership might seem mundane, but the liquidity provided by stock exchanges is extremely important. Liquidity is one of the key factors that differentiates stocks from an investment like real estate. If you own property, it can take months to convert your investment into cash. Because stocks are so liquid, you can move your money into other places almost instantaneously.
• An Entitlement to Dividends
Along with a claim on assets, you also receive a claim on any profits a company pays out in the form of a dividend . Management of a company essentially has two options with profits: they can be reinvested back into the firm (hopefully increasing the companys overall value) or paid out in the form of a dividend. You dont have a say in what percentage of profits should be paid out - this is decided by the board of directors. However, whenever dividends are declared, common shareholders are entitled to receive their share.
• Opportunity to Inspect Corporate Books and Records
This opportunity is provided through a companys public filings, including its annual report. Nowadays, this isnt such a big deal as public companies are required to make their financials public. It can be more important for private companies.
• The Right to Sue for Wrongful Acts
Suing a company usually takes the form of a shareholder class-action lawsuit. A good example of this type of suit occurred in the wake of the accounting scandal that rocked WorldCom in 2002, after it was discovered that the company had grossly overstated earnings, giving shareholders and investors an erroneous view of its financial health. The telecom giant faced a firestorm of shareholder class-action suits as a result.
Shareholder rights vary from state to state, and country to country, so it is important to check with your local authorities and public watchdog groups. In North America, however, shareholders rights tend to be more developed than other nations and are standard for the purchase of any common stock. These rights are crucial for the protection of shareholders against poor management.
Corporate Governance
In addition to the six basic rights of common shareholders, it is vital that you thoroughly research the corporate governance policies of a company. These policies are often crucial in determining how a company treats and informs its shareholders.
Shareholder Rights Plan
Despite its name, this plan differs from the standard shareholder rights outlined by the government (the six rights we touched on). Shareholder rights plans outline the rights of a shareholder in a specific corporation. A companys shareholder rights plan, it is usually accessible in the investors relations section of its corporate website or by contacting the company directly.
In most cases, these plans are designed to give the companys board of directors the power to protect shareholder interests in the event of an attempt by an outsider to acquire the company. To prevent a hostile takeover, the company will have a shareholder rights plan that can be exercised when another person or firm acquires a certain percentage of outstanding shares.
The way a shareholder rights plan may work can be best demonstrated with an example: lets say Corys Tequila Co. notices that its competitor, Joes Tequila Co., has purchased more than 20% of its common shares. A shareholder rights plan might then stipulate that existing common shareholders have the opportunity to buy shares at a discount to the current market price (usually a 10-20% discount). This maneuver is sometimes referred to as a flip-in poison pill. By being able to purchase more shares at a lower price, investors get instant profits and more importantly, they dilute the shares held by the competitor, whose takeover attempt is now more difficult and expensive. There are numerous techniques like this that companies can put into place to defend themselves against a hostile takeover.
Sometimes There are Little Extras
Are you still looking for other perks? Although free beer may be a little far-fetched there are companies that offer shareholders little extras. For instance, Anheuser-Busch does offer its shareholders discounted rates to some of the companys entertainment parks, among other things. Other companies have been known to give their shareholders small tokens of their appreciation along with their annual reports. For example, AT
A Beginners Guide To Hedging
Although it sounds like your neighbors hobby whos obsessed with his topiary garden full of tall bushes shaped like giraffes and dinosaurs, hedging is a practice every investor should know about. There is no arguing that portfolio protection is often just as important as portfolio appreciation. Like your neighbors obsession, however, hedging is talked about more than it is explained, making it seem as though it belongs only to the most esoteric financial realms. Well, even if you are a beginner, you can learn what hedging is, how it works and what hedging techniques investors and companies use to protect themselves.
What Is Hedging?
The best way to understand hedging is to think of it as insurance. When people decide to hedge, they are insuring themselves against a negative event. This doesnt prevent a negative event from happening, but if it does happen and youre properly hedged, the impact of the event is reduced. So, hedging occurs almost everywhere, and we see it everyday. For example, if you buy house insurance, you are hedging yourself against fires, break-ins or other unforeseen disasters.
Portfolio managers, individual investors and corporations use hedging techniques to reduce their exposure to various risks. In financial markets, however, hedging becomes more complicated than simply paying an insurance company a fee every year. Hedging against investment risk means strategically using instruments in the market to offset the risk of any adverse price movements. In other words, investors hedge one investment by making another.
Technically, to hedge you would invest in two securities with negative correlations. Of course, nothing in this world is free, so you still have to pay for this type of insurance in one form or another.
Although some of us may fantasize about a world where profit potentials are limitless but also risk free, hedging cant help us escape the hard reality of the risk-return tradeoff. A reduction in risk will always mean a reduction in potential profits. So, hedging, for the most part, is a technique not by which you will make money but by which you can reduce potential loss. If the investment you are hedging against makes money, you will have typically reduced the profit that you could have made, and if the investment loses money, your hedge, if successful, will reduce that loss.
How Do Investors Hedge?
Hedging techniques generally involve the use of complicated financial instruments known as derivatives, the two most common of which are options and futures. Were not going to get into the nitty-gritty of describing how these instruments work, but for now just keep in mind that with these instruments you can develop trading strategies where a loss in one investment is offset by a gain in a derivative.
Lets see how this works with an example. Say you own shares of Corys Tequila Corporation (Ticker: CTC). Although you believe in this company for the long run, you are a little worried about some short-term losses in the tequila industry. To protect yourself from a fall in CTC you can buy a put option (a derivative) on the company, which gives you the right to sell CTC at a specific price (strike price). This strategy is known as a married put. If your stock price tumbles below the strike price, these losses will be offset by gains in the put option. (For more information, see this article on married puts or this options basics tutorial.)
The other classic hedging example involves a company that depends on a certain commodity. Lets say Corys Tequila Corporation is worried about the volatility in the price of agave, the plant used to make tequila. The company would be in deep trouble if the price of agave were to skyrocket, which would severelyeat into profit margins. To protect (hedge) against the uncertainty of agave prices, CTC can enter into a futures contract (or its less regulated cousin, the forward contract), which allows the company to buy the agave at a specific price at a set date in the future. Now CTC can budget without worrying about the fluctuating commodity.
If the agave skyrockets above that price specified by the futures contract, the hedge will have paid off because CTC will save money by paying the lower price. However, if the price goes down, CTC is still obligated to pay the price in the contract and actually would have been better off not hedging.
Keep in mind that because there are so many different types of options and futures contracts an investor can hedge against nearly anything, whether a stock, commodity price, interest rate and currency - investors can even hedge against the weather.
The Downside
Every hedge has a cost, so before you decide to use hedging, you must ask yourself if the benefits received from it justify the expense. Remember, the goal of hedging isnt to make money but to protect from losses. The cost of the hedge - whether it is the cost of an option or lost profits from being on the wrong side of a futures contract - cannot be avoided. This is the price you have to pay to avoid uncertainty.
Weve been comparing hedging versus insurance, but we should emphasize that insurance is far more precise than hedging. With insurance, you are completely compensated for your loss (usually minus a deductible). Hedging a portfolio isnt a perfect science and things can go wrong. Although risk managers are always aiming for the perfect hedge, it is difficult to achieve in practice.
What Hedging Means to You
The majority of investors will never trade a derivative contract in their life. In fact most buy-and-hold investors ignore short-term fluctuation altogether. For these investors there is little point in engaging in hedging because they let their investments grow with the overall market. So why learn about hedging?
Even if you never hedge for your own portfolio you should understand how it works because many big companies and investment funds will hedge in some form. Oil companies, for example, might hedge against the price of oil while an international mutual fund might hedge against fluctuations in foreign exchange rates. An understanding of hedging will help you to comprehend and analyze these investments.
Conclusion
Risk is an essential yet precarious element of investing. Regardless of what kind of investor one aims to be, having a basic knowledge of hedging strategies will lead to better awareness of how investors and companies work to protect themselves. Whether or not you decide to start practicing the intricate uses of derivatives, learning about how hedging works will help advance your understanding of the market, which will always help you be a better investor.
Profit By Understanding Fundamental Trends
Fundamental trends are movements in the overall economy- in either a single country or the entire world - that help to shape financial markets and consumer trends. Investment dealers, business owners and even governments analyze these trends in order to predict future corporate growth and consumer preferences.
Missing a fundamental trend or interpreting one incorrectly can result in volatility in the markets and inflated stock and commodity prices. (With the market in constant change on a per second basis it is import to know what effect this has on returns, to learn more Volatilitys Impact On Market Returns.)
What Makes a Trend Fundamental?
Many factors influence financial markets. Some of those factors are temporary in nature, including war, spikes in costs of inputs and political instability. These short term trends can have dramatic impacts on share prices and liquidity in the markets.
Fundamental trends, however, are more permanent in nature. They show shifts in underlying views, technologies and knowledge and will move the markets more slowly yet more enduringly.
Living Standards in China
An example of a fundamental trend happening in the world this decade is the rising lifestyle standards in China and the skyrocketing consumer demand there for Western goods. The demand in China for cars, meat, electronics and appliances stems both from increasing exposure to Western advertising and an overall increase in the Chinese standard of living. What makes this a fundamental trend is that there is no going back. Once a country raises its standard of living and becomes more globally aware, it changes consumer spending patterns forever. (For a greater idea of what factors increase a countries standard of living, read Standard Of Living Vs. Quality Of Life.)
Canned Food
Another, more historical, example was the innovation of food transportation by the Union army in the Civil War. Although canned food had been available prior to the war, the canning process was perfected and expanded and a complexlogistics mechanism put in place to distribute rations to the soldiers. After the war, food distribution changed forever and it could be shipped all over the Union, increasing the variety of food choices available everywhere.
Trend Drivers
The underlying drivers of fundamental trends can include leaps in innovation, scarcity of resources, national economic advancement and even changes in consumer tastes. The latter one is exemplified by the trend away from wearing animal fur. The once booming industries of trapping and farming fur animals have died out almost completely. Consumers now opt for less expensive synthetic materials for coats and other outerwear. This trend is unlikely to reverse although it may once again evolve into new directions. (Trends are always occurring; to help you identify them, check out 4 Factors That Shape Market Trends.)
The Impact of Fundamental Trends on Financial Markets
In a perfect economic world, fundamental trends would be the only market movers as they represent true and ongoing change. Although some of these trends can happen practically overnight (like the first split atom), most occur over time, thereby giving forecasters time to adapt to the changes.
The efficient market theory stipulates that fundamental trends are public knowledge and are therefore incorporated into current market and futures pricing. If this was the only input into market pricing, the financial markets would move smoothly and fluidly. However, other market influences come into play constantly. These sudden pushes and pulls on pricing can either amplify or dampen the effect of fundamental trends on the markets.
Lessons From Oil
Take, for example, the impact of federal subsidies to the oil industry. The rate of growth in consumer demand in North America for petroleum-based fuels has decreased over the past decade as more efficient vehicles are built and more environmentally-sustainable technologies come online. However, the U.S. oil industry is heavily subsidized which allows it to continue to grow and to keep prices at artificial lows. Low prices for oil keep consumers and manufacturers from investing in new technologies to move away from oil. This is an artificial boost in the arm of the industry that will not be sustainable in the long run, without continued injections of billions in tax dollars. (To learn more about the oil companies and the advantages the government gives them, check out A Guide To Investing In Oil Markets.)
The Dangers of Ignoring Fundamental Trends
Regardless of other short-term market forces, fundamental trends are still one of the most important drivers of financial markets in the long run. Stock brokers, commodity traders and even individual investors must follow these trends in order to predict future valuations. Some trends impact the entire market and some only certain industries. The latter most often occurs when there has been a technological breakthrough in manufacturing or processing, such as the invention of the cotton gin.
Fundamental trends can impact both the supply and the demand side of the markets. They can increase supply when the trend improves efficiency in production or distribution of products or services. For example, the trend towards the online provision of bookkeeping services allows providers to offer their services all across the world rather than be confined to a more local market. The ultimate result is that the price of bookkeeping services drops across the industry with the increased competition. (To learn more on how the supply side can affect the entire economy, read Understanding Supply-Side Economics.)
Demand is impacted when the trend derives from consumer preferences. An example of this is the move towards healthier and organic foods. The food industry did not start the trend but rather medical reports and health industry news sparked an increase in demand for these foods.
Companies that ignore fundamental trend analysis do so at their own risk. Those who take advantage of shifting underlying economic markers can position themselves ahead of their competitors. Watching changes in markets allows a company to shift strategy and invest in new technology to provide new products and services to new markets. Companies who forgo this analysis often find themselves the dinosaurs of their industry, doing things the same way they have always done, unaware that the market has moved on.
The Publishing Industrys Tale
An example of an industry struggling to counteract the effects of a fundamental shift is the book publishing industry. Electronic books (ebooks) had been around for many years but gathered steam from 2009-2011. Traditional publishing houses almost unilaterally rejected the ebook, postulating that it would never take over from print. While they should have been hitching a ride on the train barreling down the tracks at them, they instead argued that it was not a train at all. Many of the large publishers began dabbling in the ebook market, but they do not dominate it as their pricing and promotion strategies have not moved with the trend. (For more on companies which failed to change with the fundamental shifts in the market, read 5 Big Companies Biggest Blunders.)
The Bottom Line
Fundamental trends are an important driver of financial markets and every investor and entrepreneur should analyze them on an ongoing basis. These trends signal underlying shifts in the economy that will have a large impact on future consumption. Missing these trends can result in poor portfolio performance or an outdated business model.
5 Dumb Things Investors Do With Their Money
The beginning of a new year is usually a good time to reflect on the past in order to make certain resolutions about the coming one. In investing, future success can have little to do with what has worked well in the past. Trying to predict short-term market movements is also generally an investment strategy that can lead you to financial ruin. Keeping these perspectives in mind, below are five of the dumbest things you can do with your money in 2012.
Trade Volatility
Lately, it has been en vogue to consider volatility its own asset class. Trading volatility has become possible through vehicles based off the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index, or VIX for short. A range of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been created so that investors can make bets on the extent to which the market bounces up and down. There are even ETFs that let investors gain twice the exposure to market volatility, which can be used to make bets on both advances and declines in the market.
The problem, as with most short-term strategies, is developing a compelling trading strategy capable of predicting market volatility. Trading VIX-related indexes may make sense for hedging near-term market fluctuations, but there is simply not going to be any way to predict market moves with any certainty. Major inflection points in the market are missed by the best investors and include the credit crisis, flash crash and latest concerns over sovereign debt levels in Europe. Without a crystal ball, speculating on future market volatility has to be one of the dumbest things investors can do with their money. (To learn more on volatility, read A Simplified Approach To Calculating Volatility.)
Buy Bond Funds
U.S. interest rates have been on a steady decline since around 1980 when they reached the double digits. These days, shorter-term rates are hovering around zero, while the 30-Year Treasury Bond rate is extremely low at roughly 3%. These low rates qualify as all-time lows in many instances, such as for bank Certificate of Deposits (CDs), mortgages and U.S. Treasury rates.
Savvy investors, including Pimcos Bill Gross, have lamented at the low interest rate environment. Sadly enough, Grosss near-term call on the appeal of U.S. Treasuries has left his flagship Pimco Total Return Fund badly lagging its index and an estimated 84% of its peer group. Given the low historical rates, many see it as only a matter of time before rates start to rise. As bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields, there is the potential for sizable losses for many investors in bond funds. At the very least, investors should consider investing in individual bonds to at least ensure the return of their principal at maturity. (For related reading, see Bond Basics.)
Speculate in Currencies
As with trading volatility, speculating in short-term currency movements is another dubious investment strategy. As with most investing, a long-term perspective can be much more meaningful. The Economist magazine issues a Big Mac Index, the origin of which has been described as a light-hearted way to make exchange-rate theory more digestible. Namely, it looks at the price of a Big Mac across the world as a proxy for the extent that currencies are either undervalued or overvalued, relative to each other. Specifically, it states that in the long run, the exchange rate between two countries should move towards the rate that equalizes the prices of an identical basket of goods and services in each country.
Looking for penny stocks that skyrocket?
Betting on short-term movements in currencies is a certifiably dumb strategy, as shorter-term fears and emotions can push currency relationships far off from what is reasonable over the long haul. The carry trade, or borrowing in a currency with a low interest rate to invest in one with a higher interest rate, is a case in point. A popular carry trade in recent years involved borrowing in the Japanese yen, and it has unraveled at various times, including during the credit crisis in 2007 and natural disasters earlier this year. As with many short-term market movements, many speculators were caught by surprise. (For more information, read The Big Mac Index: Food For Thought.)
Load Up on Gold
A market strategist at Fifth Third Bank recently suggested that investors in gold implement a gambling strategy that also works in Las Vegas. After a big win or run up in any investment, put your initial capital back in your pocket and continue to play with house money. This minimizes the potential that an investment, such as gold, which has had an amazing price run, stops for a breather or gives up most of its original gains. Investors in residential real estate back in 2005 and 2006 would have been well served with this strategy, and while gold may continue to have a strong run (gold is up more than 150% over the past five years, while the stock market is flat), buying it aggressively at these levels is likely a very foolish trading strategy.
Invest in Social Media
The fact that many social media firms continue to push through initial public offerings (IPOs) in the face of a difficult stock market should serve as a solid indicator that these companies have unknown underlying business appeal over the long haul. Firms including Groupon, LinkedIn, Facebook, Zynga and Twitter may be growing sales rapidly, but they are spending just as much to advertise and boost sales.
Collectively, they have unproven business models, barriers to entry are very low as competing sites are rather easy to develop, and hundreds of millions of dollars of investment capital are pursuing only a handful of good ideas in the space. It all spells a recipe for disaster, for investors looking to invest these days. (For related reading, see How An IPO Is Valued.)
The Bottom Line
Smarter investment choices include buying into blue-chip stocks and even residential real estate in many markets in the U.S. With a long-term perspective, many wise investment choices can be made. The dumber ones generally consist of trying to predict short-term market movements and piling into investments that have had very strong price runs or are extremely popular.
How To Invest In Private Equity
Private equity is capital made available to private companies or investors. The funds raised might be used to develop new products and technologies, expand working capital, make acquisitions or strengthen a companys balance sheet.
Unless you are willing to put up $250,000 or more, your choices in investing in the high-stakes world of private equity are very limited. In this article, well show you why and where you can invest in the private equity game.
SEE: Life-Cycle Funds: Can It Get Any Simpler?, Advantages Of Mutual Funds and The Dangers of Over-Diversification.)
Why Invest in Private Equity?
As you can see from the chart below, private equity is on the upswing, in spite of 2008s crisis:
U.S. Venture Capital Investment By Year
Year Number of Deals Total Investment (USD Mil)
2002 3,183 20,849.83
2003 3,004 18,613.83
2004 3,178 22,355.27
2005 3,262 22,945.71
2006 3,827 26,594.17
2007 4,124 30,826.31
2008 4,111 30,545.51
2009 3,065 19,745.81
2010 3,526 23,253.31
2011 3,673 28,425.08
Source: http://www.nvca.org/ffax.html
Institutional investors and wealthy individuals are often attracted to private-equity investments. This includes large university endowments, pension plans and family offices. Their money goes into pools that represent a source of funding for early-stage, high-risk ventures and plays a major role in the economy.
Often, the money will go into new companies believed to have significant growth possibilities in industries such as: telecommunications, software, hardware, healthcare and biotechnology. Private-equity firms try to add value to the companies they buy, with the goal of making them even more profitable. For example, they might bring in a new management team, add complementary companies, aggressively cut costs and then sell for big profits.
You probably recognize some of the companies below, which received private-equity funding over the years:
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6 Common Misconceptions About Dividends
During periods of low yields and market volatility, more than a few experts recommend dividend stocks and funds. This may sound like good advice, but unfortunately, it is often based on misconceptions and anecdotal evidence.
It is time to take a closer look at the six most common reasons why advisors and other experts recommend dividends and why, based on these reasons, such recommendations are often unsound advice.
Misconception No. 1: Dividends are a good income-producing alternative when money market yields are low.
Taking cash and buying dividend stocks isnt consistent with being a conservative investor, regardless of what money markets are yielding. Additionally, there is no evidence that money market yields signal the right time to invest in dividend-focused mutual funds. In fact,money market yields were anemic throughout 2009, a year that is also one of the worst periods for dividend-focused funds in history.
Many advisors also call dividends a good complement to other investments during times of high volatility and low bank yields. In an October 22, 2009 article, financial guru Suze Orman recommended the following dividend funds: iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index (NYSE:DVY), WisdomTree Total Dividend (NYSE:DTD)
The Financial Characteristics Of A Successful Company
It is often debated whether a commonly perceived good company, as defined by characteristics, such as competitive advantage, above-average management and market leadership, is also a good company to invest in. While these characteristics of a good company can point toward a good investment, this article will explain how to evaluate the companys financial characteristics to make a final decision. (For further reading on the other characteristics, see 3 Secrets Of Successful Companies.)
Tutorial: Top Stock Picking Strategies
Background
The world of stock picking has evolved. What was once the duty of traditional stock analysts has become an internet phenomenon; stocks are now analyzed by all kinds of people, using all kinds of methods. Furthermore, the speed at which information now travels around the world, has led to increased volatility in stock prices and changes in the way that stocks are evaluated, at least in the short-term. In addition, the advent of self-directed 401(k)s, IRAs and investment accounts, has empowered individual investors to get more involved in the selection of stocks to buy. (Read House Your Retirement With Self-Directed Real Estate IRAs for more on this investment vehicle.)
While the short-term process may have changed, the characteristics of a good company to buy stock in have not. Earnings, return on equity (ROE) and their relative value compared to other companies, are timeless indicators of companies that might be good investments.
Earnings
Earnings are essential for a stock to be considered a good investment. Without earnings, it is difficult to evaluate what a company is worth, except for its book value. While current earnings may have been overlooked during the internet stock boom, investors, whether they knew it or not, were buying stocks in companies that were expected to have earnings in the future. Earnings can be evaluated in any number of ways, but three of the most prominent metrics are growth, stability and quality (Read more about the dotcom boom and other crazes that went wrong in Crashes: What Are Crashes And Bubbles?)
Earnings Growth
Earnings growth is usually described as a percentage, in periods like year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter and month-over-month. The basic premise of earnings growth is that the current reported earnings should exceed the previous reported earnings. While some may say that this is backward-looking and that future earnings are more important, this metric establishes a pattern that can be charted and tells a lot about the companys historic ability to grow earnings. (Read about how earnings can be linked to future growth in PEG Ratio Nails Down Value Stocks.)
While the pattern of growth is important, like all other valuation tools, the relative relationship of the growth rate matters, as well. For example, if a companys long-term earnings growth rate is 5% and the overall market averages 7%, the companys number is not that impressive. On the flip side, an earnings growth rate of 7%, when the market averages 5%, establishes a pattern of growing earnings faster than the market. This measure on its own is only a start, though; the company should then be compared to itsindustry and sector peers. (For related reading, see Five Tricks Companies Use During Earnings Season.)
Earnings Stability
Earnings stability is a measure of how consistently those earnings have been generated. Stable earnings growth typically occurs in industries where growth has a more predictable pattern. Earnings can grow at a rate similar to revenue growth; this is usually referred to as top-line growth and is more obvious to the casual observer. Earnings can also grow, because a company is cutting expenses to add to the bottom line. It is important to verify where the stability is coming from, when comparing one company to another. (For further reading, see Revenue Projections Show Profit Potential.)
Earnings Quality
Quality of earnings factors heavily into the evaluation of a companys status. This process is usually left to a professional analyst, but the casual analyst can take a few steps to determine the quality of a companys earnings. For example, if a company is growing its earnings, but has declining revenues and increasing costs, you can be guaranteed that this growth is an accounting anomaly and will, most likely, not last. (Read more in Earnings: Quality Means Everything.)
Return On Equity
Return on equity (ROE) measures the effectiveness of a companys management to turn a profit on the money that its shareholders have entrusted it with. ROE is calculated as follows:
ROE = Net Income / Shareholders Equity
ROE is the purest form of absolute and relative valuation and can be broken down even further. Like earnings growth, ROE can be compared to the overall market and then to peer groups in sectors and industries. Obviously, in the absence of any earnings, ROE would be negative. To this point, it is also important to examine the companys historical ROE to evaluate its consistency. Just like earnings, consistent ROE can help establish a pattern that a company can consistently deliver to shareholders. (For more on this topic, read Keep Your Eyes On The ROE, Earnings Power Drives Stocks and Profitability Indicator Ratios: Return On Equity.)
While all of these characteristics may lead to a sound investment in a good company, none of the metrics used to value a company should be allowed to stand alone. Dont make the common mistake of overlooking relative comparisons when evaluating whether a company is a good investment. (For further reading, see Peer Comparison Uncovers Undervalued Stocks and Relative Valuation: Dont Get Trapped.)
Where to Find Information
In order to compare information across a broad spectrum, data needs to be gathered. The internet can be a good place to look, but you have to know where to find it. Since the majority of information on the internet is free, the debate is whether to use the free information or subscribe to a service. A rule of thumb is the old adage, You get what you pay for. For example, if you are looking at comparing earnings quality across a market sector, a free website would probably provide just the raw data to compare. While this is a good place to start, it might behoove you to pay for a service that will scrub the data or point out the accounting anomalies, enabling a clearer comparison. (What youre getting isnt easy to determine. Find out how to get your moneys worth in Investment Services Stump Investors.)
The Bottom Line
While there are many ways to determine if a company that is widely regarded as good, is also a good investment, examining earnings and ROE are two of the best ways to draw a conclusion. Earnings growth is important, but its consistency and quality need to be evaluated to establish a pattern. ROE is one of the most basic valuation tools in an analysts arsenal, but should only be considered the first step in evaluating a companys ability to return a profit on shareholders equity. Finally, all of this consideration will be in vain if you dont compare your findings to a relative base. For some companies, a comparison to the overall market is fine, but most should be compared to their own industries and sectors.
Investing Basics: Flight To Quality
Investing in stocks comes with the prospect of earning big returns, but it can also carry some considerable risks. At times of financial market stress, investors will often flee from risky assets and into investments that are perceived as very safe. Investors will act as a herd and try to rid themselves of any risk in what is termed a flight to quality. Whether or not an investor takes part in the flight, it is important to understand the concept, its indicators and its implications for the market.
What is a flight to quality?
A flight to quality occurs when investors rush to less risky, more liquid investments. Cash and cash equivalents, such as Treasury bills and notes, are key examples of the high-quality assets investors will seek. Investors try to allocate capital away from assets with any perceived risk into the safest possible instruments they can find. Investors usually tend to do this en masse and the effects on the market can be quite drastic. (Knowing what the market is thinking is the best way to determine what it will do next. Read Gauging Major Turns With Psychology.)
The Causes
The causes for a flight to quality are usually quite similar, and normally follow or are concurrent with some level of distress in the financial markets. Fear in the market generally leads investors to question their risk exposure and whether asset prices are justified by their risk/reward profiles.
While every market has its own intricacies, most upswings and downturns are somewhat similar: a sharp downturn follows what, in retrospect, were unjustifiable asset prices. A lot of the time the asset prices were unjustified because many risk factors such as credit problems were being ignored. Investors question the health of companies they are invested in and may decide to take profits from their riskier investments , or even sell at losses in order to move into lower-risk alternatives. Unfortunately, most investors dont get out at the early stage. Many join the flight to quality after things start to turn sour and leave themselves open to even bigger losses. (The option to bolster after-tax stock returns through tax-loss harvesting can reverse investor gloom. Check out Tax-Loss Harvesting For An Unsteady Market.)
Once major issues in the market come to light, the bubble begins to burst and panic occurs in the market as participants reprice risk. Sharp declines in asset prices add to the panic, and force people to flee toward very low-risk assets where they feel their principal is safe, without regard for potential return. A flight to quality is often a pretty abrupt shift for financial markets; as a result, indicators such as fear and shrinking yields on quality assets arent noticed until the flight has already begun.
Negative T-Bill Yield
An extreme example of a flight to quality occurred during the 2008 credit crisis. U.S. T-bills are perceived as some of the highest quality, lowest risk assets. The U.S. government is considered to have no default risk, meaning that Treasuries of any maturity have no risk of principal loss. T-bills are also issued with maturities of 90 days, so the short-term nature makes interest rate risk minimal, and, if held to maturity, non-existent.
T-bill interest rates are largely dependent on the federal funds target rate. When the Federal Reserve consistently lowered rates during 2008, eventually setting the federal funds target rate at a range of 0-0.25% on December 16, 2008, T-bills were certain to follow the trend and return next to nothing to their owners. (For more on T-bills, see the Money Market Tutorial.)
But, could they actually return less than nothing? As the flight to quality drove institutions to shed any sort of risk, the demand for T-bills quickly outpaced supply, even as the Fed was quick to create new supply. After taking a bloodbath in nearly every asset class available, institutions tried to close their books with only the highest, most conservative assets (aka T-bills) on their balance sheets. (Learn about the components of the statement of financial position and how they relate to each other in Reading The Balance Sheet.)
The flood of demand for T-bills, which were already trading at near-zero yields , caused the yield to actually turn negative. On December 9, 2008, investors bought T-bills yielding -0.01%, guaranteeing that they would receive less money three months later. Why would any institution accept that? The main reason is safety. If an institution bought $1 million worth of T-bills at the -0.01% rate, three months later their loss would about to about $25. (For more on what happened, see Why Money Market Funds Break The Buck.)
In a time of market panic and flight to quality, investors will take that very small nominal loss in exchange for the safety of not being exposed to the larger potential losses of other assets. Negative T-bill yields are not characteristic of every time the market experiences a flight to quality, but an extreme case of where demand forces down the yields of high-quality assets. (Learn more in The Fall Of The Market In The Fall Of 2008.)
Dont Panic
A flight to quality is logical to a certain point as investors reprice market risk, but can also have many adverse consequences. First, it can help exacerbate a market downturn. As investors grow fearful of stocks that have experienced sharp declines, they are more inclined to dump them, which helps worsen the decline. Investors suffer again as their fear will prevent the buying of risky assets, which after the declines may be very attractive. The best thing for an investor to keep in mind is to not panic and be the last person selling their stocks and moving into cash when stocks are likely hitting lows.
The consequences read through to businesses also, and can affect the health of the economy, possibly prolonging a downturn or recession. During and following a market crash and flight to quality, businesses may grasp cash similar to investors. This low-risk, fear-driven strategy may prevent businesses from investing in new technologies, machines, and other projects that would help the economy.
Conclusion
Just like with bubbles and crashes, a flight to quality of some degree during a market cycle is pretty much inevitable, and impossible to prevent. As investors become jaded with the risky assets, they will seek out one thing and one thing only: safety.
Is there a way to profit from a flight to quality? Not unless you can predict what everyone else will do and do the opposite. Even then, you need to time it perfectly to avoid being trampled by the herd. It may be hard, but dont panic.