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good review of that era >
kind of a longish read but all the points are in there of time lines 80's / 90's >
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/a-surplus-if-we-can-keep-it-how-the-federal-budget-surplus-happened/
Reich bio >
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Reich#:~:text=During%20his%20tenure%2C%20he%20implemented,increase%20the%20national%20minimum%20wage.
I don't understand what was wrong with the 90's rate of growth and why was it so bad??? I remember we had a surplus...very first time in my life...the Gingritch stole Christmas...ADA became very helpful for American workers...I moved to Vegas in 91 and saw a lot of growth since then...how did Reich affect what happened in '09 ???
This sums the mess we are in well. This is what the Jenga tower is made from.
Yep > I recall the Reich days > sadly
If not for him doing that "interview" I would not have posted that vid.
More validity to the cesspool of DC
So Robert Reich was his former boss and mentor. That fits.
I said in my previous post Jared Bernstein is one of the Bidenomics puppet masters. Correction, he is the Head Puppet Master. Even worse!
I am convinced the upcoming recession will be worse than the housing crash of 2007/2008. Much worse actually. Keep cash ready for the next Big Short.
No dancing allowed though. GLTY
Confirmed > no words can explain this >
I am angry. I am walking around the house this morning fuming. I cant believe this is real.
At first I thought it was a parody, a Saturday Night Live skit or similar. Nope.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/watch-bidens-head-economic-advisors-try-explain-government-borrowing
Jared Bernstein is one of the Bidenomics puppet masters...
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2023/08/16/amanpour-golodryga-bernstein-bidenomics.cnn
I was working from home yesterday and had CNBC on in the back ground. I was struck by all the talking heads praising J Powell/J Yellen and trying to blow sunshine up each others skirts. Reminded me of Ponzi scheme characters.
So much effort applied to put lipstick on this pig of a market and keep it from a big fall before the election.
wasn't that fun >
"Gap Ratz" delight, AAPL in AH and RPTs in premarket > perfect mix
$SVXY....daily ..trend HH...with GAP under w7up 5/03/2024......
RSI14 ... 60.69 at print > above 70....?
...https://schrts.co/EJvYhpkx
SVXY
UVXY..
08:30 In uvxy 350 @ 30.35 >
Vol got destroyed > see what happens
Good trade!...you hit your target, now just wait for the next one. Im looking for a set up on KOLD.
just closed out my $BOIL options @ 1.20 ... it may go higher but I am really happy with this trade...BOIL was around 14.57 and climbing...#natgas was around 2.41...A new ship just entered the #freeport that's why the run up prolly but the ship is LPG designated...
$BOIL 30.....Daily...trend today HH...look like change...OPINION....
30..
https://schrts.co/wpMMSjPF
Daily...today trend HH..
https://schrts.co/ucmbjjbM
yep, that would be the 6th trading day. not sure how quickly the "Proshares" site updates the holdings, supposed to be daily but we will see.
They updated from May to July last month so this will be a test to see if they roll to Aug....Or next month in June roll to Sep.
The decision to roll over 2 months out might not be a set rule, but an attempt to smooth out the decay. The cantango seems to be easing up.
There is not even 2c difference between Aug and Sep contracts.
Dont underestimate KOLD. I am up with KOLD +34% and lost a little with BOIL -8% this year. My daily chart is not working right now, since we are more or less in a tight channel. So Im looking at 15,30,60min TFs.
If you got something that works...stay with it.
I used to scan the public charts pretty often looking for ideas. One of the two guys I really liked had it on his charts as MACD 80,90,10. I used that for a while as I was first getting started, but thought it was too slow. I tried several combinations, but settled on M65,90,10.
The M65 indicator you use, and I have adopted, I am finding it more and more useful for the swing trading time frames I like.
I have never seen such a very long duration MACD used before. Where did this come from? What was your inspiration for its creation?
Just curious.
next Wednesday $BOIL an $KOLD begin their rollover to a future month of #natgas...
Yep 2011 / 2012 >
good reads
04 / 2011
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=61854998&txt2find=beta%20team
12 / 2011
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=70103909&txt2find=beta%20team
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=70051705&txt2find=beta%20team
yes...when Freeport becomes operational then I expect the bottom to be behind us...until then we are just trading sideways...which is pretty cool because this is easy $$$...I'm not going into $KOLD anymore...I looked at the charts comparing $BOIL and NG from 4 years ago bottom to top and the ratio is NOT 2xs that BOIL claims it is...it's more like 5:3...but it's a nice hold for a few months when NG runs up...my calls closed at .77 up from .52 so I'm doing very well...expecting $BOIL to be at least 14.5 next week sometime...hopefully higher...drawback is liquidating during normal hours when I'm asleep...looks like we have a 3 month support level for NG...I'm finally finding something that works...
Yep > time has flown >
I'm still pissed at CS for pulling that one >
They had a good chance back then to build / offer a high level platform (for Traders)
I understand a good part of what they were trying to do as this is when everything was
moving toward "mobile" & "web" and they had to chase that All in One kinda stuff >
One big problem was the programming source Code and fighting the WIN 7 to 8.xx to 10 > not even to mention AAPL code for mobile & MAC >
Seemingly the Dev's were under the gun And the Decisions to do things was clearly Not in their court > a bunch of them quit
When they Finally rolled out a "mess" for the Beta players to tear apart and work with the Dev's things went south Real Fast >
The Beta's had their own Forum within Schwab to work with the Dev's and the "managers ( Idiots)" thought they were in control
of the Dev's and the Beta's within that Forum that were attempting to Fix a Shit Sandwich > That is when the BIG Shit Storm started
and the Beta's (like me) after seeing the release had a Post Title within the forum Labeled > WTF is this ? You can't be serious !
They pissed off a lot of talent that was willing to spend their Time & Effort to help build a good platform > Some of the Beta's were
even Dev's from other platforms (inactive or retired code types) > That is when I shifted my efforts over to Tos
And That is the Rest of the Story
I remember when you were part of that Beta team. Boy that was a long time ago.
actually July #natgas was around 2.30 - .35 ...I sleep during regular hours and woke up almost end of day to my surprise NG and BOIL were still down...I'm behind on my calls but just a temp set back...the spread was really tight...but when BOIL gets back to 14 and I have until May 17th, I'll end up doubling my $$$...in that shorter period of time it's more lucrative than futures...ships are still waiting at Freeport and other ships out at sea...it's pretty cool watching the logistics of exporting NG...BOIL back up to 12.94 AH...
J > you didn't miss much >
I was on the Beta Team for SSEdge and when they released it .
a bunch of us were pretty pissed > the devs didn't listen to what the users /traders wanted
that is when I moved to Tos, kept the CS account for "holding" funds >
Now I have Ninja loaded But not funded yet for a 2nd active platform
This is what Edge replaced (StreetSmartPro) it was clean and Fast >
yes got everything setup. I never had CS so wont miss whatever their platform was.
J > you still in line for CS to Tos May 10 ? >
I did also get the email for CS platforms to drop dead on June 21 >
Will see how this plays out >
I did nothing >
been a real long time since I recall any same day FOMC retrace like this one >
Next day retraces Yes but this was strange
I may have whiplash. The last hour of trading appeared to be quite a stop sweep to clear out the easy targets.
Cooler heads tomorrow?
????? Hmmmm > need to chew on this one >
staying clear for now > Long Live SGOV
This is a terrible article that talks about the amount of T-Notes (2-10yr) and T-Bonds (>10yrs) that will be sold each month. Jan sales were about $ 308B. According to the table, Feb and March were $334B each. That annualizes to right at $4T a year, and one could easily conclude that with $36T in debt, all is good.
So I did a search and found the total numbers. The chart I found is interactive and very good, a link is below. So what is missing is the T-Bills (< 2 yr) and they are huge, in fact that are 86% of total treasury sells.
Bills Notes&Bonds Total
1Q24 2,071 327 2,398
Annu 24,852 3,924 28,776
% 86% 14%
Yep > see what happens >
at this point can't even come up with an educated guess >
Not getting ahead of Dog and Pony show @ 2:30
We will see, in cash waiting for afternoon fireworks.
Is there going to be a D&P afterwards?
Speakin of div, i just realized looking at my detail on trading acct that TQQQ SQQQ SPXL paid me some div. in March.
I dont think I knew that at the time.
I use the factor for everything. It works for any dividend paying etf or stock. Keep in mind that each time a dividend is paid a new factor is created going backward in time. The new factor is used back to the last time a dividend was paid and then the two factors get multiplied together for data prior to that date.
Okay I guess that all sounds confusing. Here is my 2023 file for SPY. I cut out the dates where the factor did not change. You can see that the factor multiplied by the previous factor going backwards gets smaller each time a dividend is paid.
Got it. Looks like the process for SWVXX when I go to its price history.
Youre method is more accurate than mine, I need play around with my SS, your factor calc is all i need to change it.
I have something similar but it is one day late.
Doesn't look like there is going to be much market movement until FMOC announcement.
Yes, but it is not a direct subtraction.
The close of BIL on 3/28 was 91.80. Then a dividend was paid on 4/1 of .4047, so all the previous data has to be adjusted by a factor.
Here's how the factor is calculated.
C = close day before dividend is paid
D = dividend paid the next day
factor = (C - D) / C
This makes the factor .99559, so the close of 3/28 gets adjusted to 91.80 * .99559 = 91.395. And all other closes get adjusted also.
This matches Stock Charts numbers. If you want to see the unadjusted numbers I sure you know you can put in "_BIL".
I don't got back and adjust all the other prior months because all the numbers would just factored by the same number, so the ratio would not change.
Good luck on the option. I think you did right by not buying the futures, you can get pounded really quick. The option I like since you got your risk defined.
Im watching the July futures NGN24 to see if this bottom of channel holds up $2.25-2.28.
great chart/SSheet, I see you got the 3mo rolling ave. I changed to that as well. it was 4mo.
You're previous close for BIL 91.395 was 28Mar minus the dividend, Yes?
I bought BOIL May 17 '24 $14 Call at $0.52 ... I think this is better spent than futures...I'll almost double my $$$ when BOIL returns to $14 or higher...#natgas trading at bottom floor prices now right before a nice pop up after Freeport fills it's next vessel...underlying price 12.93 or so,,,#natgas was 1.93 ...
This was another good month for FLOT coming in at 6.64% APR and next month should be even better.
SGOV fell off this month compared to SWVXX, but it's easy of trade still makes it my go to etf for short term money parking and it avoids settlement issues.
I am keeping about 40% of my funds in SGOV or in etf's that I am trading. The balance (60%) is in FLOT and never gets traded.
Note that the "pre cls" for a given month is never the "close" for the previous month. Interest dividends are paid on the 1st, so that always adjusts history to account for the dividend.
I'm not awake during option hours so I can't evaluate my risk and price of entry and exit for BOIL...this is really interesting learning about this commodity...back when oil was down below zero I should have just bot GUSH and held on...instead I played options and lost $$$...but with #natgas I'm learning what is making it move now...
Freeport was able to fill a couple tankers...not sure how many and by doing that $natgas prices spiked and kept up momentum until operations stalled again...I see that some ships were at sea last night are inside the port moored and waiting to be filled...$BOIL down again for the taking and I put in a futures buy order @ 1.915 which would put BOIL under 13...
(E). $SVXY.......30.......Daily.....trend today LL....will tomorrow fill the GAP down.38.63 ...??? .will see
30.
https://schrts.co/DgtPYcVG
Daily
https://schrts.co/FJidIrKm
Block pop-up ads http://www.adfender.com/
Dividends http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spy/dividend-history
Three X ETF's http://www.3xetf.com/ETF_List
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