J.M.HURST

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TREND1

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TREND1

10/12/09 8:17 PM

Post #148

SPX_WEEKLY_HURST is very strong.
.

TREND1

10/10/09 1:03 PM

Post #147

T3's and B3's is why I use HURST

TREND1

10/09/09 12:28 PM

Post #146

From time to time I'll post HURST "STUFF" here ,
but now that HURST is part of my trading system
you should go to this BOARD "SPX TREND_SYSTEMS" in order to see all charts
Here is example
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=42357752

TREND1

10/08/09 6:17 PM

Post #145

This concludes my study of HURST

TREND1

10/08/09 6:12 PM

Post #144

The following chart shows how I use HURST to get rough measure of current move. Read the notes on chart.

TREND1

10/05/09 5:49 PM

Post #143

Next 5 WK LOW 11/5/09 from Bliss count in days.
.

TREND1

10/05/09 5:27 PM

Post #142

The BOOK
CH 2 pages 33,34,35 Nominality Principle and Elements of Price-Motion Model
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=42150603

CH 4 Page 68 TIMING YOUR BUYS WITH GRAPHICS
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41929690

CH 4 Page 69 TIMING YOUR BUYS WITH GRAPHICS
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41929712

CH 4 page 78 BUY SIGNAL - VTL
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41460424

CH 6 pages 112 113 INVERSE AVERAGES
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41599340

TREND1

10/04/09 11:12 AM

Post #141

Airedale's Past Posts

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=42156895

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=42157101

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=42157126

TREND1

10/03/09 4:13 PM

Post #140

Posted by: slinky Date: Saturday, October 03, 2009 3:19:12 PM
In reply to: TREND1 who wrote msg# 41452 Post # of 41460

trend, why do you have "top" marked on some of the green lines?

Regarding the cycle lengths, the 80, 40, 20, 10, 5wk, etd cycle lengths are "nominal" lengths, which of course vary due to the Hurst principle of variability. I think part of your confusion is that you are studying the very early methods of Hurst which he later modified significantly and some of which he abandoned. Airedale used and now some of us are using Hurst's more advanced techniques and later modifications which are detailed in the cyclical course available through traderspres. Airedale strongly recommended going by the principles outlines in the course AND NOT HIS EARLIER BOOKS.
FWIW.

Slinky

TREND1

10/03/09 3:09 PM

Post #139

The BOOK
CH 2 pages 33,34,35 Nominality Principle and Elements of Price-Motion Model
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=42150603

CH 4 Page 68
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41929690

CH 4 Page 69
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41929712

CH 4 page 78
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41460424

CH 6 pages 112 113
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41599340

TREND1

10/03/09 3:02 PM

Post #138

pages 33 , 34, 35 Nominality Principle and Elements of Price-Motion Model
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=42150603

page 33

pages 34-35

TREND1

10/02/09 4:06 PM

Post #137

SPX_30 At the close
Added more things
.

TREND1

10/02/09 11:08 AM

Post #136

SPX_30 Added note
PRICE BARS
> 10 MA = GREEN
< 10 MA = RED
Just like SYSTEM 1
.
Also added more VTL's
.

TREND1

10/02/09 10:16 AM

Post #135

Re: #134: @Qone0 - Trend looks like SPX 1015 is about where

QoneO
Placed 3 VTL's on chart.
Some time they work.
Some times they do not work. IMHO
.

Qone0

10/02/09 9:12 AM

Post #134

Re: #133: @TREND1 - Qone0 Thank you for your comments.

Trend looks like SPX 1015 is about where it's going to open at.

TREND1

10/01/09 10:08 PM

Post #133

Re: #132: @Qone0 - Trend, I have been looking at your charts.

Qone0
Thank you for your comments.
I am still a long way from understanding HURST.

And yes ! I should start showing the valid trend line.

Qone0

10/01/09 6:51 PM

Post #132

Re: #106: @TREND1 - SYSTEM_3_HURST

Trend, I have been looking at your charts. This is what I see so far in this test.

The daily.

The green line means little to a trader, seldom violated. When touched or violated it produces a ABC e wave correction pattern. The red line seems to be a good swing trade point. This line would indicate a swing trade at about 1015.

The blue line is stuck to the price bars. Not sure what this is saying.

The 30 min. The green line is the trade point. The red and blue lines could be misleading as they are pointed straight up at high angles just as they intersect with the green line and the price reverses.

And what happened to the valid trend line?

TREND1

10/01/09 2:24 PM

Post #131

Re: #130: @TREND1 - SPX_30 NOTES (A) and (B)

So what does the min of the SPX_30 Triangle tell us ?
(1)To me if the min is not touched, then BUY THE DIP is still
the thing to do.
(2)If the min is touched, then I do NOT know what is going to happen.

Stay tuned...the min yes/no will be known within the next few days ...IMHO.

TREND1

10/01/09 1:57 PM

Post #130

SPX_30 NOTES (A) and (B)
.

TREND1

10/01/09 10:30 AM

Post #129

Re: #126: @TREND1 - SPX_30 Updated again

SPX_30 Breakout was to the down side.

TREND1

09/30/09 3:44 PM

Post #128

Re: #127: @JLS - Trend1,

JLS
I thank you for reading the Hurst Book and giving your
honest opinion.

JLS

09/30/09 3:36 PM

Post #127

Re: #121: @TREND1 - JLS Page 60-61

Trend1,

I think you are seeing what you want to see, not what is.

In your Post# 112, the post that started this sequence of posts, you linearly projected the green line downward after a completed day of green on Friday, 09/25. In fact, you used almost a whole day’s worth of data to derive that linear projection, and you had a lot of time to think about it as that post was made very late in the day. A simple extrapolation of that projected straight line would put it at an S&P 1041 early this morning, when the drop stopped and the reversal started. Today’s reversal started very soon after the open, and it happened nowhere near 1041. At the point of the stop and reversal there was only one or two more bars of data and that would not be enough additional data to justify changing your earlier projection which used 13 bars of Friday data.

Now you write after the fact: “The green ( projected) shows why the drop stopped.IMHO.”

Yet, as I stated earlier, the green line would have only shown about an hour’s worth of additional Monday data after Friday’s close (because the price decline stopped very quickly this morning). The chart you show in Post# 121 shows many bars of additional green data, well after the fact. Sure, if you project that data that arrived late, then you could come up with a flat projection, but that data did not exist at the time of the reversal.

With all respect for what you are trying to do, you are being fooled by offset data.

TREND1

09/30/09 3:13 PM

Post #126

Re: #124: @TREND1 - SPX_30 Updated again.

SPX_30 Updated again

TREND1

09/30/09 2:51 PM

Post #125

Re: #120: @JLS - Trend1,

JLS
Just a little HURST back ground on MA's
(1)GREEN MA = 50 Meaning that any cycle over 50 is getting shown. THAT IS LONG TERM TREND.
(2)RED MA = 10 Meaning that any cycle over 10 is getting shown. THAT IS SHORT TERM TRENDS added .....
(3)BLUE MA = 3 Meaning that any cycle over 3 ( Almost ever thing) is getting shown.

TREND1

09/30/09 2:33 PM

Post #124

Re: #122: @TREND1 - SPX_30 UPDATED

SPX_30 Updated again.
NOTE Time on chart.....

TREND1

09/30/09 2:28 PM

Post #123

*****The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" by J.M. Hurst"-- I paid $19.99 on Amazon.com
And free shipping if order is over $25.00
And no cal state taxes....

TREND1

09/30/09 2:24 PM

Post #122

Re: #121: @TREND1 - JLS Page 60-61

SPX_30 UPDATED
Note blue now UP
.

TREND1

09/30/09 2:15 PM

Post #121

Re: #120: @JLS - Trend1,

JLS
Page 60-61

HURST says you can determine which way the breakout of the Triangle will happen.
Here is the SPX_30 MINUTE again.
Let's see if HURST and tell me which way the breakout will happen,

EDIT PS: The green ( projected) shows why the drop stopped.IMHO.
.

JLS

09/30/09 1:31 PM

Post #120

Re: #118: @TREND1 - SPX 30 MINUTE chart

Trend1,

why do you write "as Hurst would expect"?

Maybe I'm too picky, but Hurst, through its use of offset moving averages, doesn't "expect" anything -- Hurst reacts many intervals after the fact.

Furthermore, in the chart you posted, the cycles have near zero autocorrelation.

I'll make a prediction. Actually, this is a prediction I made to myself many days ago: you will eventually throw Hurst out the chicken-bone-and-watermelon-rind window.

TREND1

09/30/09 1:02 PM

Post #119

SPX DAILY
Looks like we will just have to wait...
.

TREND1

09/30/09 12:56 PM

Post #118

SPX 30 MINUTE chart

TREND1

09/30/09 12:51 PM

Post #117

Re: #116: @JLS - Trend1,

JLS
I was just trying to test the HURST method of predicting a move using the 30 minute chart.
And it worked to my satisfaction.
Now more HURST testing to follow.
What testing ?
Do not know yet.
Stay tuned.....

PS: These are not trades....But Hurst method testing...

JLS

09/30/09 11:41 AM

Post #116

Re: #114: @TREND1 - JLS So why did I start using HURST to

Trend1,

I have no idea what the point is that you are trying to make and how it relates to my previous response.

My last response started with making a trifle of your little H&S pattern. (Sorry if that offended you -- that was not my intention.) Then I followed with a suggestion that you live up to your alias as a Trend trader (and not a pattern trader) and that you would likely make more money if you traded the bounces within the green channel.

And Hey! Trading the bounce within the green channel would have worked much better than a H&S trade because you wouldn't have to wait for confirmation and breakout of the H&S.

So, what is your strategy for taking profits on a H&S pattern? The strategy for pattern trades is usually to have your goal in mind beforehand (as determined by the measure rule) then sell when you hit the goal (or earlier based on stop-loss strategy). I know what the strategy is for a trend trade -- stay with the trend until it changes (which usually yields greater profits than pattern trades because profits are not taken prematurely simply because a predetermined goal was met).

TREND1

09/30/09 10:30 AM

Post #115

When I get some time,
I will post page 33 of HURST BOOK
showing "The Nominality Principle"
indicating there are only 12 different
cycles ranging from 18 years down to 1.625 weeks.

TREND1

09/30/09 10:15 AM

Post #114

Re: #113: @JLS - Trend1, are you kidding?

JLS
So why did I start using HURST to project on the 30 Minute chart first ?

Simple....Hurst moves on 30 Minute charts happen very quick
vs using HURST 9 year cycles on the monthly charts.

PS: Hey ! And Hurst worked very nicely.....

JLS

09/30/09 12:38 AM

Post #113

Re: #112: @TREND1 - H&S ........ pages 52_56

Trend1, are you kidding?

A head with one candle? And a steep decline for a neckline, too.

Even if it works, the expected gain is about 1%, if you are lucky, about half the green channel width of 2%. And you can't start the position until after price breaks out.

Your alias is Trend, not Pattern, nor Head. If you believe the green channel trend, you'd be better off if you played that for a test of its bottom. At least then you would justify your alias of Trend.

TREND1

09/29/09 4:07 PM

Post #112

Re: #110: @JLS - Trend1,

H&S ........ pages 52_56

How to tell in advance if a chart pattern will "FAIL" page 59

The green lines say this H&S should not fail.IMHO

PS: Time will tell.....

TREND1

09/29/09 11:03 AM

Post #111

Re: #106: @TREND1 - SYSTEM_3_HURST

Let's try projections of green on 30 minute chart.
After all that's why we have been studying HURST !
See chart in sticky....

JLS

09/28/09 4:57 PM

Post #110

Re: #109: @TREND1 - JLS Why I find HURST interesting !

Trend1,

since you asked the question ...

No, I don't "feel" Hurst is telling me much of anything. I think it's a coin toss. Did you have that same feeling on 09/23 or on 09/17? What about the three weeks at the end of June during which you set your daily Envelope system to pretty much ignore price swings?

What I find interesting about Hurst, though, is you used both a fast and a slow channel and set the parameters so that the boundaries of each will be tested often but not exceeded often. I think that is correct.

However, in your Envelope system, which should be in competition with this method, you set the 30-min Envelope so that its boundaries are tested often, but you set the daily Envelope so that it is seldom tested. That is not correct. And it would not make a good comparison of that system to the Hurst system. They should be set similarly for a valid comparison.

This brings me to wanting to make another point. Bollinger uses a moving average also, but it uses standard deviation (as opposed to a manual fit using percentages). In your Hurst implementation, and also in your Envelope system, you use manual fit and leave it there essentially forever. Using standard deviation makes Bollinger bands adaptive to price volatility (instead of fixed), which I find to be a superior idea. And Bollinger explains that the moving average length should be set to fit the underlying price changes so that the boundaries are frequently tested but infrequently exceeded. (So most people are in error when all they do is forever use 20, the default value, for a Bollinger moving average.)

My same argument applies to modern Keltner channels. Keltner channels were modernized by Raschke to use a percentage of ATR for bandwidth, instead of a fixed value to set the bandwidth, therefore making the bandwidth adaptive, which I again think is a superior approach. And again, the period of the Keltner channel should be adjusted in the same manner as I described for Bollinger bands.

TREND1

09/28/09 3:38 PM

Post #109

Re: #96: @JLS - TREND1,

JLS
Why I find HURST interesting !

TREND1

09/28/09 3:23 PM

Post #108

The BOOK

CH 4 Page 68
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41929690

CH 4 Page 69
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41929712

CH 4 page 78
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41460424

CH 6 pages 112 113
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41599340

TREND1

09/28/09 11:03 AM

Post #107

Re: #106: @TREND1 - SYSTEM_3_HURST

What is HURST telling me ?
30 Minute chart - Projecting the green line indicates a possible top in price 1 hour into trading.

SYSTEM 1
This is also near the 10 DMA on SYSTEM 1

SYSTEM 2
All charts are now in UP TREND
The 30 minute just went to UP TREND during first hour of trading Today.

SYSTEM 7 McLaren
Look for highs starting Oct 1, 2009

TREND1

09/28/09 10:53 AM

Post #106

SYSTEM_3_HURST

TREND1

09/28/09 10:51 AM

Post #105

*****The following is the list of systems in use
and a brief description of each.

SYSTEM 1 10MA Above /below 10 MA
SYSTEM 2 Env Looking for breaks above/below envelopes
SYSTEM 3 HURST Looking at cycles for market turns.
SYSTEM 4 6 EMA and 6 EMA + 4 Offset
SYSTEM 5 RETRACE
SYSTEM 6 320 MA Are we in a bull or bear market ?
SYSTEM 7 McLaren

TREND1

09/27/09 11:27 PM

Post #104

Why I draw those charts with envelopes page_69

TREND1

09/27/09 11:26 PM

Post #103

Why I draw those charts with envelopes page_68

TREND1

09/27/09 7:52 PM

Post #102

Re: #101: @TREND1 - McLaren is using HURST !!!

The interesting point here is that McLaren resets the 90 calendar days and starts counting again from the new July Low

TREND1

09/27/09 7:43 PM

Post #101

McLaren is using HURST !!!
Yes. McLaren's 90 calendar days is shown in green in this daily day. 90 calendar days = 64 trading days = env(13,5,-6)
which is HURST basic envelope on the SPX_WEEKLY chart.

http://share.esignal.com/ContentRoot/HAL/SPX_DAILY_MCLAREN_925.png

TREND1

09/24/09 7:19 PM

Post #100

Added this URL to IBOX
CROSSOVER ??? http://www.traderscrossover.com/cms/index.php?p=intraday

.

TREND1

09/24/09 7:18 PM

Post #99

Re: #68: @TREND1 - SPX_30_DAILY_WEEKLY_MONTHLY

Changed notes on SPX_DAILY_HURST1 chart
"Next BOT Magnitude Unknown"

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J.M.HURST

Followers	8	Posters	9
Posts (Today)	0	Posts (Total)	148
Created	08/27/09	Type	Free
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The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing by Hurst has arrived.
I will try to study his method

"The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" by J.M. Hurst"-- I paid 19.99 on Amazon.com ... http://www.amazon.com/Profit-Magic-Stock-Transaction-Timing/dp/0934380627

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