Trend, Thanks for the kind words. As a little treat for you and the board, here are a few posts by Bob Chonski (Airedale88) back from 2002 that I saved long ago:
-----Original Message-----
From: longwaves-owner@csf.colorado.edu [mailto:longwaves-owner@csf.colorado.edu]On Behalf Of NSecuri519@aol.com
Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 8:00 PM
To: longwaves@csf.colorado.edu
Subject: FWIW ---- 40 wk cycle low
applying the phasing methods of J.M.Hurst to the SP500, we are making a nominal 40 wk cycle low now. i bought in a partial position in SPYders for the foundation fund i advise and will go to 100% invested on any further weakness. this will be a rally in a bear market, but i feel it is very playable. btw, the last nominal 40 wk low was last sept's bottom.
regards, bob chonski
Slinky comments: Above, Bob caught the July 23-24 bottom like catching a knive--impressive if you ask me. Also as Chris said, his phasing at the time did have it as a 40wk low...
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In a message dated 7/24/02 1:48:26 AM Eastern Daylight Time, bob@bronsons.com writes:
With all due respect to Hurst's work, which, as I've explained before, was certainly was encouraging to us at the time he did it, have you have conducted power spectral analysis on more current data to find the reliability of that 40-week frequency
Bob, with all due respect to your work, conducting spectral analysis to find or confirm the reliability of cycles just does not work. Hurst used this method in his "Profit Magic..." book, but in his Cyclitek trading course he devotes little time to any form of spectral analysis. Hurst developed a somewhat simple manual method he called a "phasing analysis". even this method sometimes can't resolve ambiguities in the cycle analysis. he does have one more tool in the course which helps to resolve ambiguities but mentions that to fully go over the method would add too much length to the course. i first obtained the Cyclitek course in the late 80's and until the last yr spent little time on this method myself. i employ it now.
anyway, i think i will pass on your homework assignment.
regards, Bob Chonski
Slinky comments: Above and below, Bob explains what I have passed along tonight, that he abandoned the early work found in the books and switched over completely to that found in the course.
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July 26, 2002
In a message dated 7/25/02 11:50:12 AM Eastern Daylight Time, tlewis@cars.com writes:
What is the difference between the book and the course? Is the course different material/methods?
Tom, the course contains almost all newer concepts and spends little time on the techniques from his book. i found it brilliant, some of the best cycle/TA work i've ever seen. that includes Gann, Elliot, Wyckoff, and a lot of the "masters".
regards, bob chonski
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That last quote is great because Airedale really had studied nearly every single TA method out there. He also knew the history and origins of all the indicators such as macd, stochastics, CCI, etc. We all use them. He understood them inside out.
Slinky
