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Saw your original post on VRNA. Sounded good. Decided to tag along. Glad I did.
Thks,
G. Brown
Not a BP evangelist. Just hoping the company I have a major investment in is in the lead on AD. If another company comes
out of left field and scoops AVXL, there's absolutely nothing I can do to prevent that.
I'm not sure why a predominate number of IHUB posters now assume there's ill intent behind every damn post. Sometimes it's just a post and not an invitation for an attack.
The idiotic snarky open warfare is getting old and I'm running out of people to put on ignore.
Adios - I'm out.
I had never heard of the company and wasn't trying to promote them. They appear to be flying way below the radar.
Reyeton... Surprised no one has commented on this link you posted. I'd never heard of privately held Alzheon, but they seem to have a surprising number of competitive characteristics with AVXL AD applications. Hopefully I'm giving their corporate AD solution pitch more credit than it deserves.
https://alzheon.com/
Received a second note from Schwab this week asking if I wanted to lend my shares. Honest question. Why would shorts be casting about to gain access to and borrow more shares? Shares are hard to come by? They're making money as they erode the price? Obvious answers?
Schwab sent me the same note yesterday.
Comment on another board...
"I don't think shorts can make much money now. We are at the bottom."
If only that were true. My opinion... Shorts are predisposed to put profit above all other considerations, including beneficial medical treatments or life saving science.
As mortal beings most of us understand we or our loved ones may be the beneficiary of the work we're supporting via investments.
There's little doubt if shorts can drive this small company down to pink sheets, they will without giving it a second thought. Many of us have witnessed or experienced similar occurrences.
Let's trust TGD is more fiercely competitive than he's shown to date and is willing to go to war to win the contest against the multiple threats the company faces.
Crazy spike up, big buys.
Let's hope it's insider buying.
A word of advice to MM and shorts... Stop trying to lowball me. I know what I've got.
The last PR was unambiguously good news. That always seems to set off defensive shorting.
It's clear Missling is painfully aware of the beating the shares have taken from manipulation. He's on record indicating he wants to surprised the market. Translated... Line up 2-3 rapid fire PR haymakers that starve shorts of time to react and oxygen to breathe. They richly deserve whatever punishment he can inflict.
"Alzheimer Agent Blarcamesine Shows Significant Reduction of Amyloid-ß Biomarkers in Phase 2b/3 Trial
Sep 15, 2023"
One might assume this data is highly interesting to a potential big pharma partner, especially one that hasn't sunk millions in the brute force amyloid plaque removal dogma. Thanks for sharing.
The market seems hardwired to discount updates from the company. That will change in a hurry when news involves a positive development with a third party, like the FDA, another Pharma organization or a peer reviewed article from a reputable publication. That will end the liar, liar pants on fire BS.
SA article with several follow up comments. All things considered, we're still offering an option that's materially better than the current SOC and recently approved toxic solutions.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4635406-anavex-additional-p2b3-alzheimers-trial-data-raises-additional-questions
Like the majority of Europe, TGD has been on traditional holiday the entire month of August. Activity should pick up once everyone is back from their break. A lot of promised information is now teed up for September - December.
James Salmon is a Great Poster!
Past experience on another board with James. Couldn't agree more avxllent. He provides great insights and value.
I've never shorted a stock, so I can't honestly relate to the thrill seeking motivation of snatching nickels in front of a steam roller, while bearing unlimited financial risk. But people shorting AVXL stock are clearly on the CEO's radar.
I agree with this post from ST...
It won't be a pre-market. It will happen midday or afterhours. Maybe even after-hours on a Friday!
Letting AF off his leash could be interpreted as a positive sign. I doubt his hatchet job services come cheap and someone thought it important to pay his price.
It will be best to completely ignore the fool.
You're probably right. I think AF likely delights in reading the boards of the stocks he trashes just to see reactions.
AF is boringly transparent. He's the George Costanza of biotech. At the first sign of a personal CNS malady, he'll be knocking women and children out of the way to get to the head of the line for treatment from the drugs he's paid to trash.
To be fair... I was wearing my wild eyed optimist hat when I wrote 4-5 months.
For those of us who have painstakingly honed and practiced our waiting skills...we can certainly wait another 4-5 months standing on our heads, if need be. Enjoyed the warning shot across the bow suggesting the hammer will drop without warning, confirming TGD is fully aware of the jackals who have been preying on the stock.
I added today. Logic being if AVXL is successful in getting just one treatment approved, i.e. Rett, it's worth much more than $7 and change.
Dr. G simply suggested AVXL current behavior is consistent with other small bios, he's been familiar with, who were in purchase or partnering discussions. Purely supposition on his part and nothing more.
"AVXL is under no pressure to partner at the present time. Later is better in in my opinion."
Agree, later may work better, but it can happen at any point. I held a biotech, still in trials, and they partnered with a very large pharma who saw their potential and wanted to wall off competition early.
I hope they're having special talks with someone, since they're not talking to us. Perhaps they're silent for a reason.
This stock has been controlled every single day I've owned it by market manipulators, today being no exception. It will continue to be manipulated until material medical data and news breaks the grip of the MM cartels.
Fortunately, I had no plans to sell today. Artificially engineered price drops are meaningless.
badger1... Good article.
https://www.thenation.com/article/society/alzheimers-drugs/
Here's some supposition... Everyone wants a partnership. No one enjoys sweating the long silence while one is being hammered out. TGD would never have taken a pass to do some Euro clubbing and a corporate slide rehash in Amsterdam unless his lips were zipped by other demands.
Inevitably, one or more major Pharmas will, if they haven't already, come to the stunning realization 2-73 and 3-71 represent broad, highly effective CNS compounds that can be used to increase effectiveness of a host of suboptimal treatments, salvaging billions in sunk research. What's a daily dose, universal combo treatment with a life time prescription and scores of medical applications worth? Paraphrasing P.J. O'Rourke describing the future of US Federal spending...
"Maybe a Kazillion dollars or somewhere around a Ding-Dong-Dillion give or take a factor of 1000. Once we hit these numbers with vapor trails of zeros behind them, we really need to use scientific notation” - P.J. O'Rourke
I'm in a different square than some others on the board. Waiting is hard, but news is inevitable. It will be dramatic and ultimately change the course of CNS disease treatment. It would be a mistake to assume otherwise this late in the successful development of the science.
I'm an AVXL investor and the only discouragement I feel is for the parents of RETT patients who are being offered AE heavy suboptimal solutions first, rather than 2-73. Hopefully their wait for a better alternative won't be too much longer.
Hoskuld - Not sure if it was posted earlier... It was added to the ST Prime site today.
The drug clearly comes with very unfortunate AE's so adoption is likely being driven by the urgency of RETT parents to try something new. 2-73 certainly appears to be a better alternative, whenever it's made available.
From ST AVXL Prime board.
As with AD, any new suboptimal treatment (AE's be damned) is presumed better than nothing and will garner strong patient interests and adoption.
"Acadia expands ownership of Rett syndrome drug
Simon King
PUBLISHED: JULY 14, 2023
Ref: Acadia
Acadia Pharmaceuticals said it has acquired ex-North American rights to Daybue (trofinetide) via an expansion of its 2018 licensing agreement with Neuren Pharmaceuticals. Acadia launched Daybue in the US as the first and only approved treatment for Rett syndrome in April of this year, following an FDA nod in March.
Announcing the latest agreement, Acadia also provided preliminary revenue guidance for Daybue in the second quarter of between $21 million and $23 million. This is substantially ahead of consensus forecasts of between $4 million and $7 million, noted analysts at JPM Securities, who described Daybue's outperformance as "stunning." Shares in the company closed up 20% following the announcement.
Analysts note that "the Daybue launch is tracking substantially ahead of Street expectations, driven by strong patient demand, engaged healthcare providers and robust reimbursement access."
Steeper upward sales forecast
Acadia said it expects third-quarter sales of the drug of between $45 million and $55 million, prompting JPM analysts to increase their full-year revenue projections for Daybue to $132 million, rising to $280 million in 2024. Peak US sales of Daybue could now reach up to $650 million based on this early revenue trajectory, they added.
Speaking to investors and analysts on a call to discuss expansion of its deal with Neuren, Acadia management noted that over 90% of eligible Rett syndrome patients are converting to treatment with Daybue and a majority of these patients are quickly titrating up the optimal dose within a matter of weeks. Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that this is an encouraging sign for continued uptake of the drug as it "suggests that tolerability concerns, and potentially discontinuations, may prove to be mitigated as the launch continues."
AAIC '23 is officially underway with an impressive list of participants, minus our favorite small biotech. Perhaps a very late entry will drop or it's simply a case of "If you don't have anything good to say, don't say anything at all."
It's good that Mayo is there doing field work.
Biogen wasting no time in pushing their now fully approved AD drug. These big pharmas are really skilled at highlighting small patient gains, while suppressing reports on side effects. Can full blown television ads be far behind.
https://www.today.com/health/disease/new-alzheimers-drug-patient-rcna93877;
In addition to Today, the full approval was covered by NPR, CBS, FOX, USNews, ALZ.Org. NY Times, Washington Post, CNN, ABC and nearly every news outlet on the planet.
Articles generally acknowledge the treatment targets early onset, has side effects, but slows the rate of decline.
One researcher admitted the drug appeared to slow a patient's decline for about five months.
Dr. Alberto Espay, a neurologist at the University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, said that the 27% slowing in the progression of the illness falls below the threshold of what would be "noticeable" to a patient.
“The odds for brain swelling and hemorrhage are far higher than any actual improvement,” said Espay.
The FDA included its strongest warning label — called a boxed warning — about these particular side effects, noting that they can lead to seizures and death.
Grudging acknowledgement - Biogen is simply being opportunistic and happily taking advantage of the absence of any better competition in the current field of play.
Link from ST... Upbeat report on Legembi. Click on full story to read. Other pharma ALZ programs are referenced. Anavex continues to operate in the shadows. Hopefully TGD can't wait to break it off in the pompous pharma fraternity asses.
"Leqembi approval offers renewed hope for novel Alzheimer's disease treatments"
https://www.stck.pro/news/BIVI/55637820/
Another ST share... "No I don't believe your drug was 200% better than Placebo"
https://ajtrev.substack.com/p/no-i-dont-believe-that-your-drug?
Interesting take on Lecanemab in chart form... Created by AlbertoEspay. Posted by monregi on ST.
https://sih-st-charts.stocktwits-cdn.com/production/original_535115490.jpg
"After the widely anticipated FDA full approval of Leqembi, jointly developed by Biogen and Eisai Co. Ltd. some analysts focused on potential hiccups in the drug’s rollout. That rollout will likely be slow, “as there are many bottlenecks in place, notably infusion center capacity,” Raymond James analysts wrote in a research note Thursday. Leqembi is administered intravenously every two weeks, and infusions are typically done at hospitals or infusion-therapy centers."
Not to mention the recurring MRI requirements. Will be interesting to see what kind of patient adoption numbers they achieve.
Stock is down $7 and change the day after.
If TGD had opted to fully cash out on this transaction, it would have reflected a disappointing lack of confidence in the medical enterprise he's building. If he's accumulating a large haul of shares as his exercise opportunities provide, he can soon buy the 20 room bungalow next door to the Obamas on Martha's Vineyard and shuttle to Europe in his own private Gulfstream G650, on a whim, when the stock hits $300 - $500 a share.
He exercised options, paid taxes via a portion of the shares he received and kept the balance.
Agree with this thought... "Is this the partnership everyone has been"--no but great news regardless--Anavex getting in on the AI bandwagon"
An essential long term survival move. Big pharmas, with deep pockets, are exploiting every possible advantage to advance their pipelines, including utilization of AI technology. Partnering is a much faster path for Anavex to leverage advanced AI data analytics vs building or standing up their own in house capability.