Verona Pharma Plc (VRNA)

[Hoskuld]

I don't think I was aware of a SA article! FWIW, if it is published by SA then it is just not worth reading (in my experience!) SA is good for conference call transcripts, and that is it, IMO.

[powerwalker]

Apparently, Hoskuld, some people read Stocktwits this weekend ... and realized the SA article was full of **it.

Thank you.

[Hoskuld]

There are a couple of testimonials on the VRNA board on stocktwits - one from a patient and one from a pulmonologist - that are incredibly positive.

[powerwalker]

Is there any news on Verona, given yesterday's late sudden plunge and today's early continuation of that?

Than you in advance.

[MegaPirate61]

Agree 10b per year revenue for copd in the u.s. prior to peak, with peak near 20b, but more like 40b per yr at peak once asthma and bronchiectasis are on the u.s. label. Add 20b per yr once the international markets are half developed.

[powerwalker]

Verona Pharma plc (VRNA): A Bull Case Theory

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/verona-pharma-plc-vrna-bull-132023995.html

[powerwalker]

Agree ... I think it will be a crooked number(s) above $10B.

[Hoskuld]

I think it will exceed $10b by a large margin.

[MegaPirate61]

Mentioned very active in seeking a partner for eu. Did not object to 3, 5, or even 10b per yr peak market

[Hoskuld]

PW, I did not listen because they just gave their conference call last week. I missed downloading the live transcript, too, which I wish I would have grabbed!

[powerwalker]

What did VRNA execs state at the Cowen meeting this morning?

[Monksdream]

VRNA six months chart

[Hoskuld]

If at $625m run rate by end of Q1 (current pace suggests this) and uptake continue at least at this pace, then Q2 would end with roughly the 64,000 patients it takes to get to a $1b run rate, and Q3 would end with $1.4b run rate, and Q4 would end with a $1.8b run rate. I think progress will be better the more I look at this, so let's say $2b run rate. That would make it possible - I mean just possible - that 2025 revenue could reach that $1b level. That would be ahead of schedule and point to the $5b-$10b revenue area that I think we are headed for (US market only.)

[Hoskuld]

That is over $600m in annual revenue.

[Hoskuld]

Seems possible if the macro environment holds together and current uptake continues.

[powerwalker]

$100 by the end of June?

[powerwalker]

With 40,000 patients, that is almost a half of a Billion in revenue annually.

Go VERONA!

[Hoskuld]

And yet the revenue number given to justify that is so much lower than what will actually be realized.

[powerwalker]

Wells Fargo analyst Tiago Fauth maintains Verona Pharma (VRNA) with a Overweight and raises the price target from $74 to $93.

Nice to see such an increase in the target.

[Hoskuld]

They were asked but didn't give specifics.

[powerwalker]

So, Hoskuld, what about EU and UK? Are there any plans to file for approval?

[Hoskuld]

40,000 by end of March seems very do-able. I think share price will more than double by year end.

[powerwalker]

Almost a double since y/e ... may it continue at that pace!

[Hoskuld]

30,000 as of yesterday.

[Roger1]

Tuned in late. Did they give an updated patient count for Jan or feb? TIA

[Hoskuld]

This is a spectacular launch to date.

[powerwalker]

Verona Pharma Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results and Provides Corporate Update

https://www.veronapharma.com/news/verona-pharma-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-financial-results-and-provides-corporate-update/

[powerwalker]

Roger, how are you feeling?

[Roger1]

Time of cc signals good news, imo

[powerwalker]

Given the quick move to $65.70 and subsequent halving of the gain, it seems MM's still seeking weak hands ... especially with tomorrow's CC before the market opens looming!

[Hoskuld]

Yes the high end is reasonable but the low end seems too low to credit. Zero new patients results in...16,000 patients = $250m per year, divided by 4 gives $62m for current quarter. If they add the bare minimum new patients during CQ (1,000 per week) then that would be average of 22,500 partients = $87m for CQ.

[MegaPirate61]

Estimated outlook for cq are between 65 and 90 million

[Hoskuld]

Roger, the average for Q4 was just over 1,000 patients per week with momentum building through the end of the year despite holidays. My estimate is, IMO, extremely conservative: no additional growth in new patients per week. This seems unlikely though so I expect those estimates of mine are low.

[Roger1]

That would be awesome

[Hoskuld]

They had 16,000 patients on ohtuveyre as of 31DEC and I bet they announce that they have 25,000 patients as of 14FEB or 27,000 as of 24FEB.

[Roger1]

Thanks. Looking forward to seeing quarterlies next week. Anyone speculate on uptake for January?

[Hoskuld]

Roger, buyout would be based on strength of market acceptance and uptake. BP should have already purchased for $100 per share, now the price will be $120 and will grow to $150-$200 as the next year plays out. A buyout could happen at any time - should happen at any time - but who knows?

[Roger1]

How high does this go before getting taken out?

[powerwalker]

I am interested in Verona's comments on filing an MAA with the EMA. Hopefully, they have or will be doing so soon.

[powerwalker]

Verona Pharma to Report Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results and Provide Corporate Update

https://www.veronapharma.com/news/verona-pharma-to-report-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-financial-results-and-provide-corporate-update/

[powerwalker]

Does anyone have any thoughts as to today's gain?

[Roger1]

I can tell you that I've been off steroids for 3 weeks.

[powerwalker]

Hello, Roger:

Is there any update on your condition which you would like to share?

Thank you,
powerwalker

[Monksdream]

VRNA 1 yr

[MegaPirate61]

For 2025, Stan Druckenmiller
made his long pick in the Robin Hood contest in Verona Pharma (VRNA). Verona's inhaled treatment for adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) won FDA approval last June. On Jan. 8, it said fourth-quarter sales totaled $36 million in the multi-billion dollar blockbuster indication.

[powerwalker]

Is Verona Pharma (VRNA) Among Billionaire Joseph Edelman’s Long-Term Stock Picks?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/verona-pharma-vrna-among-billionaire-201156030.html

[MegaPirate61]

According to a msg board post the cfo said that their quarterly expenses were 50 million and sales were now break even and will soon be exceeding that.

[powerwalker]

While it might not be making a presentation, Verona execs are at the JPM Healthcare Conference, partaking in meetings with future impact.

[MegaPirate61]

Posted a typo before the released shares that were already on the shelf total was 2.5 million shares not 12.5 mil

[Roger1]

Yes