Velocityshares Daily 2X Vix Medium Term (TVIZ)

[hasben]

Yeah I've been wondering about GT for a bit now. Hope he is doing well!

[Fredddddy]

All good things must end. I hate that this board has gone quiet. I hope all is well gldtimer. Thanks for the lessons.

[Marc812]

Money supply continues to recede:
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=53046

[Marc812]

These folks have some interesting, albeit long winded information on options and price levels in the markets: https://theotrade.com/outlier-trades-are-where-you-want-to-be/

[77steel]

I think this is the scenario that will play itself out. Have to agree with Dent & Stockman. What do you think?

https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/world-news/harvard-trained-economist-asdfasdfasdf/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[gldtimer]

Back From Vacation.

Key positions

PST @ 20%

UUP @ 10%

GLD/GLL 100% hedge w/gains accruing in GLL

AAPL @ 1%

MM @ 69% effectively.

Secular market still in spring, with tactical market in summer.

[77steel]

Here we are again...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-shapes-up-to-break-losing-streak-but-earnings-could-kill-the-buzz-2018-04-24

[gldtimer]

Bear Trap Sprung.

Three weekss of yield decreases wiped out in three days.

Moved into PST all day long as interest rates rose and passed one of ten pivot points.

This next week could really be something for bond bears.

[gldtimer]

Spring Just Switched From Nov. 2017.

There are two varieties of spring. Hard spring with rising interest rates, and soft spring with steady/falling rates.

The equity market of course hates hard spring, but loves soft spring...well guess what, the equity markets have reason to be happy.

Last time we went into soft spring in Jan. 2017, and the market (stock) roared.

From a bond standpoint, hard spring favors TBX, and soft spring JNK/HYG. The worst investment in soft spring then is SJB (a hard winter asset).

[77steel]

Gld “If” the rest of the world is going to use the renminbi someday..as a reserve or trading currency, clearly it needs a mechanism by which to accumulate renminbi...How does the world accumulate sufficient renminbi to acquire reserve status? There are basically two ways. First, China can run a current account deficit. Second, foreign capital inflows into China can be matched by Chinese capital outflows. The second way does not result in a net foreign accumulation of Chinese assets, but it allows foreigners to hold renminbi bonds and other assets to the same extent that Chinese hold assets abroad (above the current account surplus, of course). So it too will run into triffin’s paradox and replace the US as the world’s global currency warehouse and run consistent trade deficits.
What do you think here?

[gldtimer]

Buy the Dip...Can't be Killed

...one more time, by the dip is the play to make.

Not surprising given my very short and flash measures put us in economic spring.

[gldtimer]

The Ice Man Cometh

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-15/you-cant-be-safe-stock-market-stockman-slams-americas-bad-money-system

...however, with all financial assets being in a bubble, if a deflationary depression does happen silver and gold will come crashing down with everything else.

Stocky is as permabear as they come basing his reasoning on solid economic facts; however much money was left on the table waiting for the Big One in California while home prices keep moving higher.

Rather than go long gold and silver a better choice would be to SHORT EVERYTHING!!!

[gldtimer]

So Where the Heck are We?

Secular...Stagflation (economic summer) favoring TIP and LTPZ

Short term...Stagflation.

Very short term...Economic spring favoring HYG and TBX.

Flash...Economic spring.

What's interesting is that all time measures are supportive of rising inflation, with spring and summer being mixed on growth.

Interesting the early part of 2008 was also in a stagflationary environment which quickly shifted to deflation once commodities and the EURO turned south. Will history repeat itself -- stay tuned.

[gldtimer]

Trade War China, Shooting Was Russia.

...an inflationist dream, but a global nightmare.

[gldtimer]

50% Positions in Both TIP and LTPZ Initiated Today.

...sold UUP and ran to inflation adjusted assets, both short and long.

Will wait a day and then perhaps add to full share.

[gldtimer]

A Brief (but excellent) Primer on Inflation

https://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/history-of-inflation-points-to-trade-war-calamity/

For the past 50 years and esp, the past 30 the US has imported deflation in the form of goods made by more productive foreign workers. This has also resulted in the deflation of US worker wages.

This is the positive supply shock that drives up the production of global goods but drives down the price of those goods...in other words goldilocks.

Trump is now in the processes of upending the apple cart creating a negative supply shock which could create the opposite of goldilocks...and inflationary depression (stagflation).

[gldtimer]

The Next Big Thing

Monday is setting up as a very important seasonal shift day. We started out the year in spring but then went into a winter depression that is ending and a summer depression beginning.

For review the four long-term bond holdings for each season are: spring...TBF, summer...LTPZ,.fall...VCLT, and winter TLT.

Using my one month/two month primary timing device we are still in spring and have been there since the start of 2018. On Monday the betting is the summer pivot will cross beating out spring and the new bond of choice will be LTPZ, the stagflation loving bond.

The money the Hive has held as TBF has suffered the round trip will be put into LTPZ.

[77steel]

Will do. Thx Gld

[gldtimer]

Tough Market to Make Money in.

https://www.barclayhedge.com/research/indices/ghs/Global_Macro_Index.html

...dangerous digging in with Wild Thing (DT) on the mound. Never know what's coming from day to day.

Markets are so scrambled I can't really find a home for anything except a 10% position in the USD, now favored over DJP. My flash indicator still has us in spring, but is in a holding pattern.

[gldtimer]

Beautiful countryside have fun.

[77steel]

Yep. Pick your poison. I’m on my way to Bordeaux, Richard Thaler said: “Why tie to gold? Why not 1982 Bordeaux?
I love it!

[gldtimer]

Spring Has Sprung.

On my flasht and very long measurements, with summer sandwitched between on the short and very short.

What this means is there isn't any support for either fall or winter assets.

[gldtimer]

Two Way to Instantly Increase Your Standard of Living

...at least temporarily

Save less or go deeper into debt. Both are occurring.

So how is the debt paid off. Two ways default (depression) or the money press (inflation).

The classic 'Ice' or 'Fire' ending.

[77steel]

Good read here Gld:

https://econimica.blogspot.it/2018/03/the-faster-america-grows-faster-america.html?m=1

[gldtimer]

Bee Hive's March Performance...YTD.

A reversal March with falling interest rates took a bite out of the hive, but still managed to keep its # 1 % YTD ranking as others suffered (ex FPNIX) as well. All numbers are YTD percentages as of the close 2/28/2018

Hive..........+.56

FPNIX.......+.40

BSIIX........+.28

DFLEX......+.21

Alt. Credit Focus Category (BSIIX / JUCIX/ FPNIX)......+.03

QAI...........(.37)

JUCIX......(.42)

Multi Sector Category (DFLEX)...(.80)

AGG.......(2.13)

NTBAX...(1.38) 3 Yr. Lipper Award Winner in Alt. Credit Focus Category

Current Holdings... 32% GLD w/ 100% hedge of 16% in GLL, 10% UUP, 2% SJB, 2% AAPL balance in MM.
The hedge will remain so long as both volatility remains high and QAI low, but will be rebalanced when UUP is replaced by GCC. Currently I have a 20% position in SJB the likely new Queen Bee dethroning TBF which is descending into a perfect zero gain round trip as the seasons shift from January's spring to April's winter.

Not counting the hedge the Hive is 86% in MM. What do they say: "In a depression, cash is king."

[Marc812]

GBEB Death Watch (Great Bernanke Echo Bubble)
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=52509

[77steel]

Looks like the Generals haveTrumpy where they want him... boxed in. Now he has to go to war or he will look like a Russian stool.

[gldtimer]

Best Death Cross There Is Says Look Out Below !!!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=JNK%3AHYG&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t47008297470&r=1522184810616

JNK is a risker strand of junk that HYG.

[gldtimer]

David Stockman for POTUS !!!

...Stocky is in rare form as he blast away today at the neo-cons and the military industrial complex that Ike cautioned aganist 60+ years ago.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-27/stockman-warns-trumps-new-war-cabinet-will-create-fiscal-doom-loop

All say the pledge of allegiance to the United States of Sparta.

[77steel]

Yep Looks like winter. Market rally fizzled. Interesting to see tomorrow how the Dow sell theory plays out.
23,533

[gldtimer]

A Market for All Seasons.

Whipsaw is the name of the game as the market bounces from one seasonal pattern to the other.

Long term we're in fall, short term spring, very short term summer, and flash winter.

Yesterday was spring, today winter. Best being in currencies and cash until the dust settles.

Warren says: 'IF you're going to time, wait for the perfect pitch."

Well there is no perfect pitch with Wild Thing on the mound -- LOL.

[77steel]

That’s not good for the petrodollar

[77steel]

Ok. Thanks Gld

[gldtimer]

For the First Time Since 1971 Gold is a Means of Payment.

http://www.gold-prices.biz/home/how-china-just-reset-the-global-monetary-system-with-gold.html

The yuan is now a proxy for gold.

[gldtimer]

I Don't Subscribe.

He use to be totally free. His free stuff is still enough to get the big picture of what he's thinking IMO.

His philosophy is the world will eventually crash due either to FIRE (inflation) or ICE (depression). Thoughts very much like Albert Edwards.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/albert-edwards-the-ice-age-is-herefinally-1521125760?mod=hp_RTA

[77steel]

Is Richard Duncan worth the 500 bucks? Im interested in what he is saying.

[77steel]

QE to infinity... rough waters ahead. Problem is , will it have the same psychological impact as previous rounds ??

[gldtimer]

Time Zones...

Everyone times, it's the length of the time which determines what type of investor you are.
I break down the time periods as follows:

VL...very long holding period of 5+ years. Warren Buffett of course is the quintessential long term holder.

L...long term of 1+ years.

S...short, 1-2 months.

VS...very short, 2 -4 weeks.

F...flash, 1 - 2 weeks.

D...Day, 1 day or less.

As of today, both VL and L smell nothing but roses with the economy being in fall, THE best season to own both stocks and bonds.

Short term timers have up in spring, with a pick up in both growth and inflation.

Very short and flash timers place the economy in winter, with a decline in both growth and inflation.

Take your pick. From an investing stand point VL and L find this a wonderful opportunity to load up more with VLCT and LQD as their prices drop.

Short holders are holding TBF and adding to JNK as prices fall.

Very short and flash holders are holding TLT and SJB.

Day traders can change positions within a days time, so who knows what they like.

This is what makes markets function. An asset is a buy to one trader and a sell to the other based on which time zone they operate in.

Me personally, I have me feet in the S, VS, and F.

[gldtimer]

Correct Way to Interpret Charts.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stop-saying-the-dow-is-moving-in-and-out-of-correction-that-is-not-how-stock-market-moves-work-2018-03-23

[gldtimer]

Fed is Wavering Yet Again

https://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/qt-pain-just-beginning/

QE was the easiest thing in the world to do, QT the toughest. Now that they have become a 'little bit pregnant' in not following through what's to stop them from reversing course, lowering interest rates and dumping more QE into the markets? Answer: Nothing.

[77steel]

Great post. Hanging by a thread..

[gldtimer]

DOW Theory Market Timer Hanging on by a Thread.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-theory-sell-signal-is-now-just-one-step-away-from-being-triggered-2018-03-24

My short measure went south Feb. 6th, and my long March 22.

[gldtimer]

Read Previous Post.

The oldest statistical tool to determine the future is compiling a moving average of some sort over different lengthens of time. This was first used in the 16th century determining the water usage in London, noting peaks and falls as the seasons progressed.

The oldest is still the best. Moving averages were used by the greatest trader the world has ever known Jesse Livermore to determine entry and exit pivot points. Jesse famously said: "It's more important to buy/sell at the right time, than the right price." If you time properly, over time, price will be your friend.

The conundrum using moving averages is if they are too long, the up down price signals cancel out or can lock one into a position that can't be reversed. If too short then violent whipsaws can eat up capital with a net no change for the market. It's best then to use a short moving average and a longer one double the length of the short.

This gives two buy and two sell signals moving 50% of the allocated capital at one time vs. 100%.

I personally like using a one week / two week short average and a two week / one month longer average. I also favor using an exponential moving average vs. a simple moving average.

Timing can used used on any number of assets from one to infinity, it's best to makes sure different assets are timed rather than similar assets...TBF:TLT is a better pair than AAPL:FB.

[gldtimer]

Timing the Markets.

First of all the market is always right, yet wrong looking forward.

Let's say there is a market for betting Heads vs. Tails which are independent events vs. betting black or red with a 52 card deck. Each flip is 50 / 50, but red / black odds are determined by the cards which preceded the bet.

In 10 flips the number of H / T can have a wide possible outcome... 70-80% of either.

Longer term we know we the probability outcome of 1,000 flips will be 99% +/ 10 or 490 / 510 or closer. This in market terms is called mean reversion when the number of H / T gets too far out of whack.

There is a complication with asset markets however, the complication is that politicians around the world are weighting one side or the coin or the other. They either promote growth or restrict it, the same can be said for inflation.

It would be fools errand to chart the number of standard coin flips and then bet on a future flip...but if the coin was weighted that wouldn't be true. Markets can be timed because they are weighted coins.

[gldtimer]

Actually a very smart thing to do.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/23/college-students-use-financial-aid-money-to-invest-in-bitcoin.html

If by some miracle they shoot to the moon, pocket your gain and pay off the loans.

If they crash, whine about how you can't pay off your loan, receive 'forgiveness' and off you go debt free no worst for the gamble.

Imagine some stranger handed you $1,000 as you walked into a casino telling you he only wanted to be repaid if you win...how much would you attempt to win? $1,100 nets you $100, but $10,000 nets you $9,000.

[gldtimer]

Meanwhile, the US Could Wreck Its Standing.

http://theweek.com/articles/759509/dethroning-dollar

What's the difference between the global equities crashes that happened this past week and the first week in Feb.? Answer: the movement of the US dollar.

Being the world's reserve currency put it at the center of the universe becoming either a warming star as the currency weakens or a black hole as it strengthens. The first week in Feb. had the dollar gaining smartly against all currencies, even the yen.

This past week the reverse happened, big time! Every major currency advanced against the dolla this past week as the DOW had the worst week in two years! One great way to balance trade is to crush the currency making imports expensive and inflation higher.

Looking to history the hyper-inflation in Germany post-WWI was preceded by a meltdown in the Mark. Unemployment in Germany during the hyperinflation was reduced to zero as people needed two jobs to pay for food as prices skyrocketed running huge trade surplus as foreigners bought their goods they could no longer afford.

Zero unemployment and huge trade surpluses certainly didn't make Germany great again !

[gldtimer]

Another Nasty Chart.

I use LQD:IEF as a growth barometer. The last time the price broke the 200 was way back in the fall of 2014 and it didn't get any better until the Fed tore up it's rate plot projections.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=LQD%3AIEF&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=t68990253639&r=1521886309912

...will they do the same again? Sure. Question is how long before they do. Watch for two more hikes becoming one and then none.

[77steel]

Amazing what three trading days can bring. I’ll be up n early here in Italy on Monday. Have a good weekend Gld...
Avalanche selling on monday... who knows? Could. Be.


Again...,

A parabolic move toward a top
A sharp correction followed by a failure to test the previous top
And finally, a break below support, followed by a dramatic plunge.

[gldtimer]

Yep, The BEAR is HERE.

I use QAI as my measure and today for the first time since Jan. 2017 it signaled a bear market.

Monday should be interesting !!!

Also what is extremely important is that the USD has shifted right before my very eyes this week from being a risk off currency to risk on. This week was of course the week of the DT tariffs. DT wants a weaker dollar, well he's about to get one.

This, by default makes the EURO the 'black hole' risk off currency. Mind you all this happened in the course of a week....amazing !!!

[77steel]

Found this interesting heading into today:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-dow-theory-sell-signal-could-trigger-a-selling-avalanche-2018-03-22