Velocityshares Daily 2X Vix Medium Term (TVIZ)

[77steel]

Perfect timing :)

[gldtimer]

Only Scarer Headline this past century....

Hitler selects Himmler.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-names-bolton-national-security-adviser-replacing-mcmaster-2018-03-22

[gldtimer]

The Games People Pay;;;

CAT releases Jan./Feb results on the SAME DAY.

https://www.crescat.net/wp-content/uploads/CGMC-Report-2018-02.pdf

...Can't image the number of redemption they would have had if they released Jan. horrible performance the first week of Feb.! --LOL

[gldtimer]

JUCY Got Seal Clubbed Today.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=jucix

'Bond King' Gross has been betting a risk-on strategy that didn't pan out very well today.

Up .3% YTD going into the opening today he's now down (.5%) YTD.

[gldtimer]

This Post Will BLOW Your Mind.

The subject is TIME and SPACE.

First lets talk or real time and of a very long time ago (relativity), the beginning of the universe.

Hawking's said the universe began as the big band (more correctly the big bounce), 15 billon years ago, and will end with the big collapse maybe in another 25 or o billion years.

This puts the universe on a bounce cycle of approx. 40 billion years. The bang is the explosion, from that the universe first accelerates and then goes through and inflation phase (which we are currently in) at some point the farthest galaxies stop receding and then begin to fall back on each other called deflation.

The deflation accelerates and all matter (at least for our universe) collapses into a primal black hole. or what I call a super-duper massive black hole which is at the center of a a six sided universal display. We don't live in a pararell universe, but a multi-universe.

Our universe is one of six sides with five other unknown universes. Image that our universe is the flat side of a single die...with a snake eye (#1) which 'appears' to be flat. A super-duper massive black hole lies at the center of the die.

Since the big bang (bounce) the die has become larger, but as I said at some point (5 billion or so years from now) the die will stop growing and then contract back to an infinitely small size...the point of singularity resulting in another big bang (bounce).

Now if that doesn't mess your mind up this will. There have been 1,000,000,000,000...keep adding zeros until the cows come home) bing bangs or more correctly BIG BOUNCES. This of course deals in 'imaginary time' since time starts and ends with each bounce. So how old is the cosmos? Well its 1,000,000,000,000...keep adding zeros till the cows come home, years old.

Now if that is not enough to mess you up this surely will...there are 1,000,000,000,000...keep adding zeros till the cows come home, die (universes) in the total cosmos!

Take a grain of sand, isolate an atom, and the atom is our universe in relative size.

Feeling a bit insignificant? Well you should !!!

...post dedicated to Stephen Hawkings -- RIP.

Tomorrow I'll post on market timing.

[gldtimer]

Usually Doesn't Happen So Quickly -- LOL

[gldtimer]

LOL...We'll Know Soon Enough if We've Ru Out of Greater Fools

[Marc812]

Is anyone brave enough to buy the dip ?

[77steel]

Good call Gld: you called it ...

HYG:JNK DEATH CROSS.

...going up is going down.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-22/dow-futs-plunge-600-points-powell-highs-below-mondays-lows

[gldtimer]

HYG:JNK DEATH CROSS.

...going up is going down.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=HYG%3AJNK&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&i=t93367001062&r=1521581564101

Doesn't happen often but when it does stocks suffer.

I won't be adding to equities here---LOL !

(given that I don't own any but a smidgen of APPL I sleep good at night) !

[77steel]

Thanks Gld. I appreciate the input .

[gldtimer]

The Real Trouble (cracks) Started One Year Earlier.

...the euro/$ crash was the trumpet the wall is coming down.

Secular trends in growth and inflation both crossed into winter in the summer of 2007.

Today the secular trend is firmly establish4d in Fall (growth with low inflation/deflation, BUT the trend for both is down meaning still lower inflation or higher deflation, and slower growth or recession. This of course is winter.

It appears that if the rate of decline in growth continues at its present pace by the end of the year we could well cross over and then it may take another year for markets to realize what happened if 07-08 repeats.

Ray D. is going a 70% chance for a recession by 2020 which would be consistent with my CURRENT thinking. However, forecasting that far out is like saying what the temperature will be on X-mas Eve 2020.

[77steel]

Sorry about that. Here it is...

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2018/03/16/looking_out_for_the_next_bear_stearns_is_the_wrong_idea_103194.html?utm_source=rcp-today&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mailchimp-newsletter&utm_source=RC+Markets+Today&utm_campaign=6aa9c3e132-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1f71a1eaa2-6aa9c3e132-85534685

[gldtimer]

Article is missing, please post.

Let me say this about the dollar. The dollar and yen (risk off currencies) are now lining up agnist the pound/euro/and small dollar countries. This confirms the shift from being short long bonds to being long.

The longer term trend is still for a rising interest rate long bond, but the shorter run (tactical) position is now in TLT.

As I stand going into Monday I'm 16% in UUP, 8% FXY and 4% TLT... all risk off assets.

[77steel]

Gld, I found this article interesting, especially on what he said about risk, the dollar and what we may or may not have learned from ‘08 and the Fed. Tell me where you may or may or may not agree, and tell me your specifics for doing so, if you don’t mind. Have a good weekend...

[77steel]

Thx Gld...

[gldtimer]

Bill Gross Doesn't Like the USD

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=JUCIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=0&r=1521151689992

...by the price action of JUCIX it appears the 'Bond King' has no position long or short in the bond market, but is definitely short the USD.

[gldtimer]

Knife Edge Market.

GLD a couple of days ago has given way to the USD.

Feel like a surfer dude waiting for the big one, disappointed by what rolls in.

Fishing, surfing and investing is all about planning, waiting and executing.

[gldtimer]

I'll add my 2 cents saying the shortest of my seasonal measurements put us in winter.

[gldtimer]

Similar to going to the track...

How often does a 6:1 animal work for you? I'd up the odds and say 10/90.

[77steel]

“. . .Today almost two thirds of Ginnie Mae guaranteed securities are issued by independent mortgage banks. And independent mortgage bankers are using some of the most sophisticated financial engineering that this industry has ever seen. We are also seeing greater dependence on credit lines, securitization involving multiple players, and more frequent trading of servicing rights and all of these things have created a new and challenging environment for Ginnie Mae. . . . In other words, the risk is a lot higher and business models of our issuers are a lot more complex. Add in sharply higher annual volumes, and these risks are amplified many times over. . . . Also, we have depended on sheer luck. Luck that the economy does not fall into recession and increase mortgage delinquencies. Luck that our independent mortgage bankers remain able to access their lines of credit. And luck that nothing critical falls through the cracks. . . ”

If it happened once... it will surely happen again..
It’s always a liquidity issue.

https://protradingresearch.com/2018/03/09/housing-liquidity-crisis-looms-debt-deflation-follows/

[77steel]

Wow!! Go Gld Go! How do you feel about this aphorism: The best investors make 80% of their money 20% of the time?

[gldtimer]

GOLD is a GO !!!

I call the 'Hive' a... A, B, C, D portfolio.

A is really Au the periodic symbol for gold, B = bonds, C = cash, and D for USD (UUP).

Well today marks a shift from UUP => GLD with 20% of the portfolio exchanged.

Gold has a maximum portfolio threshold of 53% of the total portfolio so there's a large amount that could be added.

As the hive stands now 20% GLD, 13.5% FXY, 3% TBF and 2% AAPL with the balance in cash.

[gldtimer]

Interest rate 'Death Cross' Next Week.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=EDV%3AZROZ&p=D&st=2010-03-03&en=2000-01-01&i=t13342813653&r=1520075483726

EDV:ZROZ has an admirable 50/200 prediction record with a higher index value predicting higher rates and lower bond prices.

[gldtimer]

Bee Hive's February Performance...YTD.

A strong February driven by rising interest rates pushed the Hive to # 1 % YTD

Hive..........+1.35

BSIIX.........+.83

JUCIX.......+.22

Alt. Credit Focus Category (BSIIX / JUCIX/ FPNIX)......+.20

FPNIX.......+.20

DFLEX......+.10

Multi Sector Category (DFLEX)...(.65)

AGG.......(2.13)

Current Holdings...UUP 16%, FXY 6%, TBF 1.6%, AAPL 2%...MM 74.4%

March begins with the UST short position in PST/TBF trimmed back dramatically and with an initial UUP position.

[77steel]

Sure

[gldtimer]

My Canary Done Got Plucked.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SCS&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=0&r=1519854225688

King $$$ working it's death star magic.

[gldtimer]

Great article thanks..

[77steel]

I thought of your post yesterday when I read this a bit ago from the hedge. The Hawk shock...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-28/bank-america-only-number-matters-market

[gldtimer]

Super-Hawk JP Unleashes the USD Death Star.

All the talk about Powell being an uber-dover was just that...talk.

You have to remember another candidate was John Taylor a super-uber-hawk.

Both of Trump's FRB candidates are hawks as well.

So to me it came as no surprise that he said "the economy is improving and prices are rising."

This is not however what the Euro, Gold, Stock and Bond community wanted to hear -- LOL.

[gldtimer]

Something King $$$ would love to see.

[77steel]

Some London analysts are saying if and when brexit goes through they could see the pound drop below the Euro. A first.


https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/3026935/amundi-sterling-to-fall-below-eur1-following-brexit

[gldtimer]

You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet, on the Long Bond

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=EDV%3AZROZ&p=D&st=2010-01-01&en=2000-01-01&i=t98003557215&r=1519248776357

...notice how the 200 dma hasn't even upticked yet.

[gldtimer]

UUP Isn't in the Cellar Any Longer.

...IEF is.

I devised a way to put money to work backing the dollar early this morning. As of the close 20% pf the portfolio is in UUP.

As the dollar reversed this afternoon it did exactly what a death star should do...suck in the asset values of all the other assets in the world.

Given the dollar is #9 it still has a long, long ways to run.

[gldtimer]

Of the Eleven Assets I Follow UUP is Dead Last.

...however, it's making a move and over the next day or two could find itself up one pushing IEF into last place.

So?

Well the USD is the death star which can pull the asset value out of each of the other ten. I've set up very short pivots on the USD vs. GLD, FXY, PST, and TBF all which underperformed against the greenback.

What this means is that I'm raising cash and will wait for the dollar to run out of steam...if it does.

If it doesn't and continues to move upward I'll then start backing it after it knocks off the contenders.

On the queen bee side it looks like gold will give it up to TBX over the next day or so. FXY is still firmly in place, but as I said I'm selling off 40% holding cash as the dollar steamrolls.

[77steel]

It sounds very plausible. Global synchronized growth, leads to global systematic crash IMO.

[Marc812]

Interesting historical perspective on the vix:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2018/02/16/number-of-times-vix-closed-below-10-during-calendar-year

[gldtimer]

Could Edwards by Right?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/permabear-albert-edwards-says-the-10-year-treasury-yield-will-eventually-go-negative-2018-02-02

Sure he 'could' be, but then anyone 'could' be. Edwards has for over a decade described the economy as being in an 'ice' or depressionary era. So it's only logical that he sees the UST 10 year falling to Japanese levels.

If it all does play out I'll happily dump my PST/TBF and load up on IEF/TLT.

This week a sign that the markets are moving in Alberts direction was the promotion of FXY over HYXU as a queen bee along with gold (the most deflationary of the precious metals).

If the world was in a hunky dory fine shape with higher growth and inflation prospects,, TBX would be a queen bee along either JNK or HYXU

[gldtimer]

Queen Bees Point to Trouble Ahead.

The two halves of my portfolio are somewhat at odds with each other. On the interest rate side, rates are pointed higher which is a spring condition especially when inflation is muted. I'm still full in PST, but cut back to 80% on TBF at the close yesterday.

However on the queen bee side, one queen has flown from HYXU (a spring asset if there ever was one) to FXY a defensive... things are not good asset.

The other queen abandoned the TBX spring hive after only a weeks stay and flew back to GLD another defensive asset.

Risk direction is now off.

[gldtimer]

LQD Isn't Lonely Any Longer.

...Added UUP to the Fall cell (but UUP can also at times act as a winter asset...same is true for the yen)

This gives the hives a currency/currency substitute in each of the four seasons: Gold for summer, HYXU for spring a FXE substitute, UUP for fall/winter and FXY for fall/winter.

[gldtimer]

Huge Scratch Marks on Trees.

...being a bee keeper I best know something about bears.

The classic sign bears are in the area is fresh claw scratches about six feet off the ground.

No matter what the market says during the relief rally that started late Friday afternoon, I wouldn't pitch my bear repellent in the trash canister anytime soon.

These are the bear markings I see (one is scary enough, but when there are three it down right frightening)

PALL:PPLT

HYG:JNK

FXY:FXE

[gldtimer]

Inflation Slowly Accelerating

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-15/fed-warns-inflation-has-arrived-prices-paid-philadelphia-new-york-soar

It's like watching the hour hand on a clock. But no matter how fast it's moving higher, bonds (ex: TIPS and JNK) should be heading lower.

[gldtimer]

Like Any Growing Business I've Added Hives.

...I'm up to ten hives and have decided for diversification purposes -- it's better to have two hives with a QB rather than one. So going forward instead of trying to pick the top 1 of 7, I'm now targeting the top two of ten.

After all if a bear gets into the QB hive and eats her I'd be up a SCWNP.

The new additions are FXY to winter, HYXU to spring, and GCC to summer. Unfortunately I can't find any other additional fall assets so LQD remains by itself.

No here's the interesting part -- both GLD and FXY are hosting the queens!

As luck would have it I received an absolutely tremendous bounce in GLD after I posted that GLD might still have some legs. FXY also popped exceptionally well

As the hives stand how 20% of the total portfolio is in GLD and another 20% in FXY.

Playing the interest rate 'bull' or bond 'bear I also have 20% in TBF and 20% in PST.

All in all a rather tremendous day to say the least !

[77steel]

Haha! I should! The jet lag crushed me this time. I got up at 6:30 pm Italian time. Looks like things have settled down a bit in the market.

[gldtimer]

Queen Bee GLD Might not be Dead Yet.

...she's being pulled higher by FXY as investors rush to the safe haven currency of choice.

I was short gold through DUST but now having sold it off I'm neutral.

Not interested in going back into GLD until she resolves issues with both TBX and SJB.

[gldtimer]

Two Seasons Tie for 'Best Season'.

Spring and Summer tie at 6 points each, with GLD still holding on to the number one spot but TIP at number 5.

Spring has TBX at number two, but JNK slipped to number 4 with it's evil twin (SJB) taking the number three spot.

Winter @ 11 moved up a season with the strong performance of SJB, but IEF is still in the cellar at #8.

The most striking change, certainly from the beginning of the year is the fall goldilocks asset LQD which with its double counting (only one fall asset) it ranks 6 + 7 = 13 !!!

Proof that goldilocks is indeed dead. If you remember at the start of the year LQD was the sole Queen Bee...and now she's homeless. Analyzing her fall using the POTUS extensive use of vocabulary..."It's sad she has been so bad."

[gldtimer]

Things Just Don't Feel Right

Too many cross currents with no clear path. The answer to not having a direction to move aggressively in is don't do anything. Being 50% in cash that's as close to doing nothing as the hive can be.

The trend for the general market is still down, even given two days of relief rally.

The trend for bonds is totally mixed with strong economy growth pushing yields higher and fear of stock market collapse driving them lower. FXY is strong which is risk off, but interest rates are rising which is risk on.

I'd be much happier holding TBF in a weak yen environment.

Another example of things not lining up is the falling dollar, which is inflationary, but falling commodity prices which are deflationary.

Much of this has to do with a new Fed chair and until the market can figure out if JP is more hawkish or dovish than expected.

[gldtimer]

Love the Eternal City.

You might want to join up with the 5-Star Movement, there's an election coming up very soon--lol

[77steel]

Looks like Dalio has been flip flopping in recent weeks, but is decidedly bearish at the moment. Heading to Europe Gld, Rome for some time and then I may settle in London. But I’ll be reading your posts and asking questions. Best of luck to you this volatile year!

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-12/ray-dalio-everything-changed-last-10-days

[gldtimer]

Market Had a Key Reversal Day on Friday.

Being down over 2% the market rose in the last hour and a half to finish up 1.5%. The downward candles had a huge suck up. Dust up 11% finished up 4%. Monday was a continuation day but upon a weaker USD which gave the bond bulls courage to actually bid up the 30 yr. even though the DOW was moving up 500 points!

All in all it was a perfect bygone goldilocks kind of day.

But as we all know goldilocks was eaten by the bond bears.