Timing the Markets.
First of all the market is always right, yet wrong looking forward.
Let's say there is a market for betting Heads vs. Tails which are independent events vs. betting black or red with a 52 card deck. Each flip is 50 / 50, but red / black odds are determined by the cards which preceded the bet.
In 10 flips the number of H / T can have a wide possible outcome... 70-80% of either.
Longer term we know we the probability outcome of 1,000 flips will be 99% +/ 10 or 490 / 510 or closer. This in market terms is called mean reversion when the number of H / T gets too far out of whack.
There is a complication with asset markets however, the complication is that politicians around the world are weighting one side or the coin or the other. They either promote growth or restrict it, the same can be said for inflation.
It would be fools errand to chart the number of standard coin flips and then bet on a future flip...but if the coin was weighted that wouldn't be true. Markets can be timed because they are weighted coins.
