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$NYA - will it recapture 8 and 21
MA's which are above price closes for
multiple days?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p16612807292&a=286429918
Ravi - some A-D lines closed Wednesday
below both their 19 and 39 day moving
averages
NYSE commons also below the 50 day, correct?
vigilance whether A-D lines are able to recapture
their 19
RIM August 16 update
Takeaway
NYAD below -1000 was clue that markets will turn around. Did not see it yesterday - but this AM.
All indices showing their respective Mc OSC close to LBB was another clue
% B 21,2 close to LBB was third clue.
Flattening PMOAZNDX was the last clue.
Regards.
Ways to Detect a Top
chart set by Scott
charts #1 and 2 the annotations were updated
through August 15, 2018 by Scott
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=64680372
JWN weekly chart overview -
JWN printed a new multi-year price high on August 14, 2018
https://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=JWN&ty=c&ta=0&p=w
monthly -
https://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=JWN&ty=c&ta=0&p=m
the 11 sector Spyders price action vs. their 20-day EMA requires vigilance
for now, these are trying to hold above their 20dEMA
XLF held the 50dEMA at the most recent low, if memory serves
XLK and XLF account for the largest percentage of the S&P 500 together vs. the other 9 sector Spyders
good review RAVI … you are skilled, and I appreciate your efforts at detail and progressing in your learning to observe thoroughly
thank you
fyi - I watched the Perseid meteor during the optimal time Monday early a.m. for about 2.5 hours … what a show! The best show in the last 20 years, and close to 2nd best show in my personal lifetime of viewing this annual event. I was located in a very dark sky at about 7000 feet elevation and no car lights or town lights for at least 10 miles in the distance, and at least 100 miles from any sizable town
"the shower peaks during a practically moonless sky with 50-100 meteors per hour."
RIM - August 14 update
Have all the emails and chart - thanks. Lots of stuff to discuss and observe.
1. PMOAZNDX @67 still below MAs - but no 34/63 cross down as yet watch
2. ADLINENDX improved dramatically above 19 ema - good (19 above 39 above 50) good
3. While NDX and NAS MCOSC a turned up still below 0
4. NDX MCOSC from March -now shows peak in May but lower highs now
Low put in March and a higher low in June end (higher lows and lower highs) but price moving up
Showing negative divergence - watch
5. MCSUM as well showing lower highs since May while price is moving up - negative divergence
6. NDX MCSUM still below 5 ema
7. % BB 21 and 50 are heading higher since yesterday indicative of expanding BB 21 and 50
8. NYAD has turned up good as well
9. Price at 2839 spx and UBB 350,2 daily at 2896
10. While all MCOSC are below zero - they all turned up and above LBB and trending up
Takeaway - market put in a ST bottom - could not go below 20 MA - heading higher now
HD daily chart
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p34245989219
* a good learning example for
the profitable use of specific analytical
tools if willing to trade for
price declines as well as price bounces
overall view -
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=HD
RIM
Ok will do - I have noted to check all Mc Osc everyday to see which one shows up as high low etc.
Also, will watch 350 Sma or 70 wk Sma on SPX and 3% below it as a sustained way to determine where we are.
Thanks again for the unique insights.
Regards.
watch McO on all indices, not just the 4
very important
they are all here in the 1st 3 pages
* track the actual date of the McO daily value
high for the period early May to December 30, 2018..
dates of lower highs, dates of higher McO highs ...and
the McO low dates, lower lows and higher McO
low dates
https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871
AAPL lt buy timing question
* When SPY touches or closely approaches
a daily value near but NOT below the 3% mark
below the 70-week sma...lasting price action
below the 3% mark below the SPY 70 week SMA
is extremely bearish only while it lasts .. most SPY intraday
corrective lows over the decades do NOT violate the 3% mark
below the 70 week SMA for dividend adjusted
SPY price action
got it? Do not act on AAPL daily weekly or monthly charts in isolation
only lazy and/or uninformed investors
make risk vs. reward decisions in isolation to
the market's technical environment
how about it?
and FYI ...this is posted at Glen's IHub board
and Jim Kurtz's IHub board already by me for SPY
3% mark below the 70week SMA ... a very savy technician
pointed out this repeated chart event to me over a decade ago
RIM
I sent an email to BB folks July 13 and trying to read the website and videos and articles slowly as my heart issues permit.
I have ordered the book as well. I will read the details of those two indicators and understand them. The BB folks are also helpful sending me website information and newsletter information.
Thanks for pointing out about MCOSC - should be watched on all 4 indices at once.
Regards.
your Weekly chart question seems to
ask an inaccurate and isolated approach
to making a decision for possible trade exit
method using a weekly price chart with
an MA
come on , get with the program Ravi
longs LT terminal exit example you
have recently witnessed since July 13 to 18 when
index ETF prices moved higher as the McSum's
and daily McO values peaked...with BB width
on the multiple A-D lines headed lower except for the Dow
Industrials
( no higher McO absolute values since mid-July )
got it? get that this is priority consideration ?
read my chart interpretation summary that has
been here for many days/weeks on Page 1 ...look at all charts and
my comments
precision precision precision
practice precision OR remain confused what
merits priority weighting for decisive actions
https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871
are you listening to my written words?
I am choosing to speak with precision, to
be as clear as possible what actions follow
from the chart interpretation
McO answer to your questions
1. Create an Excel spreadsheet to calc
the McO value using the daily net A-D value
as the day progresses ...applying the
McO formula to intraday net A-D values for a symbol
population is simple mechanics and involves
minimal brain power
no need to wait until evening for your end of day
value for the McO values for the set of indices
solve your need for timely data, or
accept your choice to operate as an amateur
2. you did notice the BB location for Monday's
McO's?
NDX 100 A-D line volatility is declining
...BB width contraction means lower A-D line
volatility by definition
contraction of the BB width is the opposite
of width expansion ...have you read John's book
yet? As I suggested weeks ago, best
not to try to apply tools until you
complete the instruction from the master
who created the BB tool set
have you subscribed for free to John's
YOUTUBE channel? ...listen to every video
going back to 2009
have you subscribed to John's pay
subscription service with a monthly
email report and weekly email reports on
market and internal analysis and with
his Market Timing Chart Pack? very accurate...
for this pay service he does have a free trial I believe
is still available
you cannot spend your learning time
in a better fashion than understanding
the basis of John's analytical methods
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=142688616
RIM - questions
agree - was watching % BB 50,2 still trending down - can you clarify why volatility is going down ? But VIX is going up now. I am missing something.
Watched the MCSUM still not taking out previous low from early low - connecting the dots looking backwards
Questions - that need clarifications
1. Tuesday today - the markets bounced - a few MCOSC like DOW SOX OEX were below 20,2 LBB, NDX and NAS were not - so how do I know next day there will be bounce or is it trend change ?
Especially when the data for MCOSC comes in at 7 pm or so. All the ADLINESPX were still down trending.
2. Weekly chart - is there a way to use it by staying long above 10 week MA for LT buy and holds? Any other good chart from you would be greatly appreciated just like the monthly chart
3. Monthly chart on AAPL and NDX100 components - studying it - while the Stoch gives you precise buy points within a month - I am thinking you stay long as long as Stoch is above 80 and sell as it comes below 80.
Is there a MA 10 or 20 that as long as price stays above it we stay long? Ribbon chart helps - using 3/5 cross up or down as the first indication of up or down.
4. a good tool to identify 2003 and 2009 LT market bottoms and 2007 and 2020-2021. Or next market top?
These questions have been eluding me - hopefully I can get mentored to assess these questions.
great quality review for August 13 RAVI
the NDX 100 A-D line 50,2 BB width continues to decline for several weeks, so a period of lower volatility for the NDX 100 A-D line BB's is in play … when will
this condition change? the BB width is now at the lowest level seen in the May to August 2018 period
the NDX 100 McSum is below its 5-day sma and is recently declining again
AND this McSum is not yet below the early July 2018 low, so the bulls still have a small amount of McSum room for a "save" and a McSum return to the upside … this save will be critical to the future probability evaluation for a future McSum and NDX price advance
RIM - August 13 update
1. PMOAZNDX - @ 66 going lower indicates downtrend 34/63 lines trying to cross down - watch similar to march 15 when cross was bad for index
2. ADLINE NDX is below 19 ema now - MAs 1 below 3 below 5 - downtrend - slope of ema 19 dnegative
3. NDX MCOSC and NAS MCOSC both below 0 - down trend
4. NDX MCSUM below its ema 5 - downtrend
5. % BB 21,2 below 0.5 down trend
6. NYAD at -909 (bottom at -1000?
takeaway
NDX is solidly in downtrend - watch indicators above carefully for any change to upside
NYAD is showing downtrend
NDX|spx ratio is down trending
RIM - August 10,2018 Update
1. PMOAZNDX below 34 and 63 - similar to mid March - must watch carefully
2. ADKINE NDX - below 19 EMA and 1,3,5 cruised down
3. MCOSC NDX and NAS both below 0 -
4. % BB 21,2 below 0.5 more down possible
5. MCSUM NDX below 0 bearish tone
6. NYAD trending down
takeaway
Looks like we are seeing some headwinds to the down side based on above
8/10/2018 Advance-Decline line status:
* bullish uptrend by the A-D line remains intact for listed below only while
the A-D line actually remains above the 19-day ema -
https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871/tenpp/1
S&P 500 - above the 19-day ema
S&P 100 - above
NYSE common-stocks-only - now below, was also recently briefly below
NYSE all issues - now below, was also recently briefly below
Nasdaq 100 - above, was below briefly
Dow Jones Industrial - above
S&P 400 - above, was below briefly
S&P 600 - above, was below briefly
* A-D line BB Width peaked in early or mid-June 2018 for
the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and the two NYSE A-D lines and has since been
declining with the S&P 500 A-D line Bandwidth flattening
in late July and early August, so be vigilant whether the Bandwidth rises.
Since 2016, lower volatility reflected in a declining Bandwidth
often takes the A-D lines to lower levels within their
Bollinger Band
before an A-D line Bollinger Band
expansion takes place again
** the various McClellan Summation Indexes are
due for a high probability Summation bounce failure
and a downside reversal unless :
the McClellan Oscillator for each index actually approaches the McO spike
high achieved in the week ended July 13th, and the McO's have shown no inclination to begin such an effort to date
good review overall RAVI, and 3 other items of great importance require your current attention for the AD tools as well as ongoing monitoring.
I will take the time to look at these 3 items together with you if desired via our phone call on Sunday if that is acceptable for you to not have it in writing before the market week ends. I can explain these important vigilance chart structures for the McSum and more subtle items regarding the McO's in writing as well at a later date when it works for me to compose the explanation with both clarity and thoroughness.
I will only have about 10 minutes of availability with any kind of device having internet connectivity between now and Saturday evening. I am moving my entire summer camp RV setup to another location at 6:00 a.m. Friday for the next phase of my summer and autumn outdoor recreating until November 2018.
Talk with you Sunday.
RIM update for August 9,2018
You put me up for a big test today to understand the significance of what we are looking at - reading a book thanks for being late - quote from it talks about intelligent person may know all the answers, but hallmark of true genius lies in the person who asks the right question.
Anyway, today instead of reviewing the daily data which is indicative of down on most indices - I will just put some intelligence in the answers.
1. Cumulative AD line 19 > 39 > 50 shows we are still in uptrend - the intelligence one derives from it is the delta between the lines - as 19 comes closer to 39 - sign of market weakness and direction of market liquidity which will be a sell
When we have ADLINE 19 go below 39 is a great weekly bottom buy and hold for 3-4 months. Last time it happened was in April 2 or 3.
2. The delta between the 19 and 39 is the MC OSC for NDX shows the short term strength and direction of market liquidity - we prefer this to be -
Above 0 for uptrend
At 0 for no trend
Below 0 for down trend
June 28 this MC OSC was at extreme last time with it being below 21,2 LBB indicative of a bottom and buy
Now we are at the top and turning down as indicate by ADLINE obviously
3. MC SUM is the big Daddy -
Bullish above 0
Neutral at 0
Bearish below 0
MC SUM and price move together - current flat trend means no significant trend
As indicated elsewhere. In 2017 and 2018 Mc SUM has never or barely come below zero showing continuous uptrend.
PMOAZNDX validates the uptrend in 2017 and 2018.
Hope we can discuss these observations in your review and correct me as needed.
RIM
No worries and thanks for the review - I am looking at your response to ensure that I am on the right track that's all.
ADLINE MCOSC MCSUM and % BB are all clear. Since everything is based on price movement and ADLINE it is easy to see BIG PICTURE -
BIG PICTURE - as long as ADLINE 19 > 39 > 50 are stacked means one above the other or ROYAL setup for more UP - this one indicator is a life saver.
The Shorter term MAs 1 we use shows shorter terms oscillations that provide opportunity for swing trading within the main trend.
Alternately, if one wants to stay long one could use the 3 MAs to really stay long - without worrying about shorter time farmes.
I have seen that once you get out of a trade on these short term oscillations getting back is difficult. I would like to stay the course like your FB trade for a long time - not sure we can do that now that bull is very mature after 9 years.
For this I need to learn tha monthly chart - top down analyses - that should help me to see the direction and duration of the market run. Here everything gets supported at 50 EMA monthly for primary waves - and rest of the bull run we come only to 10 EMA monthly - which is 200 day MA.
MCOSC MCSUM and % BB tools facilitate the ADLINE very well - although have seen MCSUM a bit delayed signal - %BB outside the BB helps identify bottoms well with the ADLINE.
MCSUM just bottomed and started heading up - does that mean that this is a small correction and we head up again?
I am still not sure how to use the BB width - as for NDX now it was coming down as we were going up and now we have change in slope and direction after BBWIDTH bottom wanting to change the direction - for BBWIDTH 21,2 - based on your write up this should be. A trend change in the STerm. BB width 50,2 has not changed direction at all.
Bottomline
Leonardo said - simplicity is the ultimate sophistication. Based on that it is very very simple to totally rely on ADLINE as the King. As long as they are stacked well 19 > 39 > 50 - the markets should be heading up.
Question
Assuming that anyone bought AAPL at the bottom 80 area in 2009 March - cycle bottom - let's call it point 0 then there was no need to worry about the Elliot waves primary 2 and 4 that as your monthly chart stock bottom shows happened with a 9 month down for both times - you would still buy and hold and not sell in these corrections - as it would be difficult to precisely time the markets . This would be LT buy and hold.
Alternately, one would use STOCH bottoms to buy and sell at STOCH tops as it rolls down below 80 at the top.
Right now I would focus on learning the tools accurately and put them to use on a swing trade basis.
Regards and have fun. We will talk on Sunday.
excellent August 8, 2018 review RAVI. Your concern points
are spot on, and the positives you mention may or may not sufficiently
balance the negatives you point out. Let me know if you
understand what is most important now to look to for that answer.
I will be away from devices 95% of the hours until Sunday. Will make sure
to be diligent to check in here for your review comments, to manage existing trades and stop adjustments, and to update the Public List showing the 6 page chart set that guides what we are now evaluating in the market conditions. Very instructive times for the use of all these indicator and price conditions we are looking at together.
Thanks again for your sincere effort to soak up this opportunity in the market to apply these tools. Talk with you Sunday as planned.
RIM - Update for August 8, 2018
1. PMOAZNDX @ 71 UFY but < 34 EMA
Value similar to march top as of today - but price higher high - so some negative d - WATCH carefully
2. ADLINENDX @ 671.40 slightly lower than yesterday but 1,3,5 stacked well no down trend
3. %BB 21,2 @ 0.88 DFY and %BB 50,2 @.85 Down from yesterday (DFY)
4.,MCOSCNDX 7.47 down but above mid BB
5. MCOSCNAS -0.77 down but above mid BB
6. MCSUMNDX 649.27 DFY but above 5 ema good
7. BBWIDTH 21,2 turned up - suggests a trend change to down for NDX ? ----- WATCH
8. ADLINE for SPX DOW went above UBB 50,2 or touched
9. ADLINE for NDX and NYC did not touch UBB
Takeaway
1. A short correction may be in the offing?
2. Since ADLINE breadth based on their MAs have no cross - means bull is alive and hedging higher
Concern
MCOSC for all indices above zero - but close to zero - small movements may indicate strong move up or down?
very good review for August 7th RAVI. you are very good at
this effort to learn thoroughly and efficiently. Glad for your future with
those skills and your enthusiasm.
I will email you and then you will have my email address, and we can arrange a phone call ...it will be best use of our time to get you to the one-click upload of symbols into a distinct chart folder for the NDX 100 component stocks. I suggest you use the copied AAPL monthly chart settings as the "Default" chart settings for this specific new chart folder.
SC calls folders a List. So, create a new List using the name NDX 100 components as of August 10, 2018. Then we can talk on the phone this weekend Saturday evening your time in Ponce Inlet if that works for you. Should take a few minutes at the most to guide you to navigate to the Download index components function. You will have already created your new NDX chart list, and already set the chart default style to be like the AAPL monthly. Then while we are talking you do ONE click and the 100 monthly charts are in your new chart List for the NDX 100
will email you using the address you already gave me later in the week, and you can email back what time Eastern time works for you to have our phone call on Saturday eve. Another day can work too.
RIM - update for Aug 7 close
Item 1 BB width - 21,2 today started turning up positive slope - should be increasing width means good
Item 2 - do not know how to do one click - want to learn
August 7 update --------- compares it with August 6
1. PMOAZNDX @ 70 and up from yesterday (UFY) - below ma 34
2. ADLINE NDX 671.90 UFY - all short MA's stacked well 1>3>5
3. % Bb 21,2 at 0.96 UFY, % BB 50,2 @ .87 UFY
4. MCOSCNDX at 15.45 UFY, above mid BB good
5. MCOSCNAS at -1.87 UFY above mid BB good
6. NDX MCSUM @ 641.80 UFY and > 5 ema - good
NAS MCSUM @ 19.66 > 0 good
7. 21, 2 BB width turned up
Takeaway
NDX is firmly heading up - watching 15,2 weekly and 15,2 monthly UBB
good review NAS. any change in the direction or angle of slope for
the NDX A-D line BB Width?
item #2 - do you kmow how to 1-click upload to your own chart folder at SC all 100 component stocks for the NDX-100?
it is handy to auto create
100 charts with 1-click and keep the component symbols updated as they change over time. SC has a feature where you can sort the entire folder with these 100 NDX stocks by percentage change in a one page SUMMARY view of the entire folder contents - greens and reds - as the day progresses, and you can actually notice from the day's open how
the Advancers and Decliners are changing in number.
RIM - update for Aug 6 close
1. No change in PMOAZNDX at 68 from Aug 2
2. ADLINENDX at 669.40 higher high shows uptrend 1>3>5 EMA which is good
3. % BB NDX 21,2 at 0.85 getting close to UBB
4. % Bb NDX 50,2 at .83 getting close to UBB
5. MCOSCNDX 6.96 > 0 and above mid BB uptrend
6. mcoscnas -9.43 > 0 and above mid BB uptrend
7. MCSUM 626.35 higher high than July 5
Summary
All indices in uptrend based on ADLINES.
Observation when daily ema 19 swings below 39 ema and comes up - weekly bottoms - indicative of long
Term upward movement - 2-3 months?
for SPY - today August 6, 2018 represents another
new record daily close high of all time and the first
daily close that resides above the late January 2018
intraday price high
( using dividend-adjusted price history available
as the default at Stockcharts.com which nearly all
broker charting platforms do NOT provide )
here is how the SPY price action looks on the weekly chart -
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=W&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p23648875227&a=594610379
Rim
Many thanks - will review an book mark this diligently. Studying your monthly AAPL chart - in retrospect it was so easy to identify market bottoms, intermediate bottoms and tops as well -
Keen review of teh monthly chart for AAPL exhibited few integrating insights
0. Any price cross up or down of monthly 3 and 5 is 15-20 months buy or up in AAPL case and 9 months down
1. %BB bottoms are good tradable bottoms - tops provide a negative divergence
2. RSI 9 provides a good top when it comes below 70 and below ema 89.
3. 5,20,1 MACD cross up above 0 is buy and hold and print top could be a good top although not always true like now - it is trying yo make a higher high
4. Stoch 15,3,6 below 80 will signal a top as well
While AAPL can run up to R3 for the month at 215 - there is no risk to reward. I played 10 shares and got out.
Biggest thing in teh market is conviction - it comes only from getting hands dirty - trading -
By investing in education I want to be a better trader investor during all good bottoms but also next major bear bottom whenever it comes.
Insanity is doing same thing again and again and expecting different results - Einstein.
I had to change and try proven techniques and strategies even if it meant small, yet consistent gains.
Have to build up my self esteem - and eliminate fear of failure - take intelligent risks.
Have a good ride this am - must be beautiful - we have a nice bright day here as well in Ponce Inlet.
Ways to Detect a Top - chart set by old-timer and chart expert Scott
which he is continuing to update the chart annotations, in most cases
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=64680372
am headed out very early a.m. now for a mountain bike outing some distance away
May not be visiting IHub until mid-week or so
best regards
RIM
Thanks - Tom Macllan wrote a report dated August 2 on bull Bears
He also for a weekly decline to bottom end of August early September
Regards.
The Bollinger Band Width is the difference between the upper and the lower Bollinger Bands divided by the middle band.
This technical indicator provides an easy way to visualize consolidation before price movements (low bandwidth values) or periods of higher volatility (high bandwidth values).
The Bollinger Band Width uses the same two parameters as the Bollinger Bands: a simple moving- average period (for the middle band) and the number of standard deviations by which the upper and lower bands should be offset from the middle band.
How this indicator works
During a period of rising price volatility, the distance between the two bands will widen and Bollinger Band Width will increase.
Conversely, during a period of low market volatility, the distance between the two bands will contract and Bollinger Band Width will decrease.
There is a tendency for bands to alternate between expansion and contraction.
When the bands are relatively far apart, that is often a sign that the current trend may be ending. When the distance between the two bands is relatively narrow that is often a sign that a market or security may be about to initiate a pronounced move in either direction.
Calculation
Band Width = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
8/03/2018 - Advance-Decline line status:
* bullish uptrend by the A-D line remains intact for all listed below, only while
the A-D line actually remains above the 19-day ema -
https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871/tenpp/1
S&P 500 - above the 19-day ema
S&P 100 - above
NYSE common-stocks-only - above, was below very briefly
NYSE all issues - above, was below briefly
Nasdaq 100 - above, was below briefly
Dow Jones Industrial - above
S&P 400 - above, was below briefly
S&P 600 - above, was below briefly
* A-D line BB Bandwidth peaked in early or mid-June 2018 for
the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and the two NYSE A-D lines and has since been
declining with the S&P 500 A-D line now flattening for
multiple days.
Since 2016, lower volatility reflected in the currently declining BB Bandwidth
usually takes the A-D lines to lower levels within their
Bollinger Band
before an A-D line Bollinger Band
expansion takes place again for a lasting duration
** the various McClellan Summation Indexes are
due for a high probability Summation bounce failure
and a downside reversal unless :
the McClellan Oscillator for each index actually approaches the McO spike
high achieved in the week ended July 13th, and the McO's have shown no inclination to begin such an effort to date
RIM NET ADV & DEC and Cumulative ADLINE
- yes the charts you showed for today 61 afpdvancers and 39 decliners out of 100 for NASDAQ 100 index
- 61 Plus 39 is 100 issues
- 61 minus 39 is 22 issues for August 3
Cumulative advacnce decline line that the 4 charts I watch are accumulated net advances minutes declines for the subject index for teh chart duration plotted -
It is too much to watch daily numbers - cumulative gives understanding of breadth and strength of the markets
takeaway
Looking at NDX chart the QQQ want go up more on low breadth - hidden under the rug is the true story of breadth and strength
Yes - we had couple of good days in trading - at least will not make mistakes like going long when we are coming down and vice versa
Bottom line - looking at many traders they just don't seem to understand how simple yet profound the cumulative AD lines and MC ISC and MCSUM are.
Each one is trading by many indicators that are so crude.
I reproduced your AAPL chart - I am studying the nuances of it. I want to catch a good stock and ride up from 2009-2018 kind of run. Hope I get a bear market before too long.
Using multiple %BB and BB 15,2 monthly I could clearly see that we are outside teh UBB - so better to stay out now for AAPL.
Charting daily advances and declines helps to gauge teh markets impending tops and bottoms. I think USHL5 does that but this is for NDX index.
Have a great weekend.
NAS - what is a cumulative Advance-Decline line?
definition:
cumulative Advance-Decline breadth lines
are the cumulative total of the daily net Advance-Decline values, which
are summed for the current time period using the start date selected in the chart settings
today August 3rd the Net of:
the Advancing stocks minus
the Declining stocks
out of the symbol population of
100 stocks in the NDX-100 index was a positive 22 value
!DECLNDX can be charted at SC for the # of daily Declining stocks out
of the symbol population of 100 stocks in the NDX-100 index
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?!DECLNDX
!ADVNDX can be charted for the # of daily Advancing stocks out of the symbol population of 100 stocks
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?!ADVNDX
please tell me you now fully or partially understand what a cumulative Advance-Decline line represents for any index that is selected
thank you NAS! good work this week, and am glad your trades worked well for you
NAS - reply to your question about my daytrade QQQ short exited today
see chart #402.2 for the overall tactical reason for the entry timing choice coupled with not able to hold for a lengthy period above the market open high level for QQQ
and yes, the internals for NDX are unresolved at this point how much of a bounce we shall see for these NDX internals
https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871/tenpp/5
good ideas for the FAANG group. be sure to watch the XLK to SPY ratio chart # 923 … see where some of the indicators bottomed this week for this ratio
see the stocks listed in the top 25 components of XLK at Morningstar XLK portfolio composition, which overlap the closely watched Tech symbols
Answer #2 - correct, no A-D line exists for a single stock, such as AAPL
RIM AAPL and 15,2 BB monthly
I have taken interest in looking at %BB for 20,50,75(weekly 15,2), and 300,2(monthly 15,2).
I reviewed the charts for several FAANG stocks. FB, NFLX and AAPL have touched the top and were outside the UBB.
It is interesting to see all 20,59,75,300 often exceed the 1.0 Indicative of exceeding UBB.
AAPL did that and now curving down indicative a top and sellers coming in.
Question - we have to study % BB on the stock itself as we do not have ADLINE for each stock is that right
good work, NASARAVI!
RIM - SPY question response
I studied both the SPY and NDX charts to surmise and take a shot at the answer. My answer is based solely on the price action since July 1 till now and using the AD line tools only nothing else
1. Currently 50 day sits at 179 area
2. We had. 4 touches from top and 1 from bottom
3. Last one at 279.16 in August was a lower low than late July 279.36
Analysis
1. ADLINE is getting flat not good
2. MC OSC in July was higher in general than in August below 0 level - bad internals
3. Mc sum reflects MC OSC trending down
4. BB width coming down supporting ADLINE.
Let me know if I passed.
NDX is showing the same behavior and had. Much lower low.
RIM
I saw teh poke outside teh 15,2 monthly UBB - that is a very high price and usually means some backtracking. Watching it closely to see what happens.
Regards.
NAS - when time permits please list the
chart reasons why the late July and early August
SPY price "bottom" is possibly
vulnerable to not being a firm and reliable
bottom ...that price area was tested from
above more than twice since early July
it is good to identify chart reasons to be skeptical
as well as optimistic
NAS - I cannot give you an AAPL answer that has high probability accuracy for the possible duration of AAPL upside
watch the 15,3,6 full STO on the AAPL 30 min, hourly, 120-minute ...at this point in the upside run, I suggest you
rely on the Full STO on quicker charts since AAPL monthly price bar
is located above the monthly 15,2 UBB
AAPL 203.50 = monthly upper BB now
I am unwilling to guess at the answer
RIM
Two things are very critical as you outlined. Thanks for informative comments.
1. Study all other indices to see what they are doing - on daily
2. Study 60 minute and daily charts for all indices
3. I strongly feel that ADV DEC line is the key - guarantees price behavior
4. I should understand how it behaves in MAs, MCOSC, MCSUM and % BB all the time
5. STO is secondary indicator
Lessons learned - SPX made a double bottom while NASDAQ made a steeper correction.
Need to train my eye to how AD line behaves - it did put a higher high
Lastly, % BB poke outside the LBB on Aug 1 at same level as June 28 bottom nailed it.
PS: As I was reviewing your SC site I came across teh use of STO and was curious that's all.
Any comment on AAPL if the bull market is going to run sometime or are we topping here like FB/NFLX.
Note: I have printed all teh ADLINE % BB MCOSC MCSUM charts and staying them in detail everyday
Must look at the 3 main index begavior NDX SPX DOW everyday
NAS - you presented 2 or 3 options for symbols on which
to plot the Full STO in your Aug 2 update.
I suggest you accustom yourself to
vigilance on the STO, BB, %B and BB Bandwidth
on the 60 minute QQQ. Also watch charts
for the other symbols if it adds confirming
value about potential tops and bottoms. Using
the 60-minute QQQ chart will give you
timely notice when potential top Calls
or bottom Calls are negated as the chart setup
changes. You can often see the lack of STO
follow through that is required for Confirmation
by vigilance on the weekly and monthly STO, which
I find is a reliable confidence tell.
You seem to have STO setting likes.
I suggest you also try the 15,3,5
Full STO. Jea Yu is a math wizard and
I have read his books. His settings for
STO have proven themselves on all the chart
time frames including monthly. He has many
online lessons about interpreting pups and mini pups
when reading STO, which are explained in detail in
his books.
repeat: remember always to have an open mind
because large positive daily A-D values
are possible at anytime in the future
establish a routine of numerous chart element reviews
to guard against potential bear traps
* the chart space:
between the 19-day ema and the 39-day ema,
and
between the 39-day ema and the 50-day sma
for the cumulative Advance-Decline lines
is often prone to index price action bear traps
because what is not known on any given day is whether the
one-day or two-day dips below the 19-day ema will continue
downward further below the 19-day ema OR not
and whether the one-day or two-day dips below the 39-day ema will continue
downward further below the 39-day ema OR not
good observations NAS
remember always to have an open mind
because large positive daily A-D values
are possible at anytime in the future
establish a routine of chart elements reviews
to guard against potential
bear traps
in my case, no lasting bear begins until
/ES holds on a lasting basis below
the 2767 to 2788 zone, not even penetrated
for several weeks
Good work NAS
Rim- QQQ and NDX observations
1. NDX AD LINE - displaying a slight negative slope on ema 19 for few days now
Also, EMA 5>ema 3> 1 not stacked well and all down-sloping
2. Watching daily QQQ resistance at 5 ema and 15 ema as well - thinking AAPL could move things up
3. Saw your monthly chart on Stock charts - always missed the two major market bottoms in 2003 and 2009
Your monthly settings are very clear to pick up major market bottoms and primary waves down 2 and 4
4. Focusing primarily on NDX and NAS to get good feel for the charts and derive intelligence from
AD Line, Mc OSC, Mc SUM, % BB - must have Large Positive AD values not seeing that
So much knowledge, intelligence can be derived from just 4 charts that really really matter that all other
Inddicators like MACD CCI STOCHASTIC and many derivatives look crude.
This cyclic motion in AD line is akin to a sign wave oscillation above and below the mean line - typical of
Rocket noise and vibration oscillation - that are totally random, non stationary and dynamic in nature.
5. This bull market has to end someday - as you have discussed about FB going to 70. Just saw Chinese stick
Tencent loosing $143 billion since Jan. reminds me of excess in 2000 and 2007 tops - luckily came out
Without damage.
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