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thorough review, NAS.
notice the NDX A-D line 19 day ema is
flat for several days now, which emphasizes
the level of caution since the flat slope is lasting
more than a single day
that A-D line setup needs several large positive
daily A-D values to resume chart strength, and without
such an event the NDX A-D line setup will become
more negative
QQQ resistance this week is at the 5-week sma, so far
RIM update for Aug 1
Lesson - watch for ADLINE below EMA 19 , above is good
1. PMOAZNDX @69 - < 34 MA, red elder down trending
2. ADLINENDX - @ 659.60 < 19 EMA - watch caution
3. % BBNDX - 21,2 turned down below mid level at .42 below .5 - watch caution
4. MCOSCNDX _ -41.02 turned down - watch caution
5. MCOSUMNDX - @ 636.08 red elder down Trending?
7. MCOSCNAS_ -34.26 has turned up
MSOSCillator for all indexes is < 0 watch caution -
Except for NDXADline below ema 19, no other index displays that
Take away - being cautious based on the indicators for NDX and COMP
MCOSC for alldices below 0 is of concern?
8/01 end of day comment:
the cumulative A-D line is the sum of the daily Advance-Decline values
the 5-day ema applied to the daily A-D values is above the zero line as of July 31st for:
S&P 500 - 5 days above
S&P 100 - 6 days above
Dow Jones Industrial - 6 days above
* this is very bullish while the 5-day ema
continues above the zero line ...
price pullbacks are likely to be bought only as long
as this bullish condition by the 5-day ema for the daily A-D values continues
NYSE cso and all issues 5-day ema's are oscillating above and below the zero line for several weeks
ditto the NDX 5-day ema for the daily A-D values
COMPQ tends to nearly always have a negative A-D bias and has little merit for usefulness, at most times in the year
SPY 281.36 = my guess for today's August 1st closing price
281.80's is possible
7/31 - Advance-Decline line status:
* bullish uptrend by the A-D line remains intact for all listed below, while the A-D line remains above the 19-day ema
S&P 500 - above the 19-day ema
S&P 100 - above
NYSE common-stocks-only - above, was below briefly in late July
NYSE all issues - above, was below briefly in late July
Nasdaq 100 - above, was below briefly in late July
Dow Jones Industrial - above
another quality review, NASARAVI
thank you
RIM - July 31 update
Lessons learned on when to hold and when to fold
1. PMOAZNDX - 71 red elder and below ma 34
2. ADLINE NDX - at 661.90 turned up and above ema 19 - watching if it goes above ema 3/5
3. % BB NDX - 21,2 is now above 0.5 at 0.52 and turned up
4. MCOSCNDX - at -30.15 turned up
5. MCSUM NDX at 677.10 still red elder delayed signal
6. MCOSCNAS at -33.45 turned up ( had same low as June 27 and July 30)
Takeaway
Got out short SQQQ this am and went long TQQQ holding 100 shares
Price held ema 50 and sma 50 area
NDX MCOSC had higher high compared to flat on MSOSC NAS
Did not notice similar low outside LBB on NAS so put MCOSCNAS on NDX chart as well
TQQQ put in a print bottom and turned up
AAPL earnings played 10 shares holding
the link below shows 7 pages of charts, from
which I make nearly all my trading decisions ...
every chart element on every chart is considered when
I am trading any single instrument
I evaluate the chart set as a combination package, and
no single analytical tool or chart stands alone without
being considered as part of the whole
https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871
there is no shortcut in analysis ... for my purposes,
I review and assess each and every chart element
future updates of chart observations and chart
settings which I am actually using are updated at the
Public List above
for time efficiency, I will be avoiding IHub in order
to be more accurate and thorough with my chart set updates
which are the basis of my actual trading
will check IHub weekly or more often, when time permits
I am hopeful NASARAVI continues to post his observations for
the various A-D tools
so I continue to mentor the real-time shifts in directional bias
and provide suggestions at this IHub board for accuracy improvement ...
I commit to providing routine review of your
efforts
reminder from earlier post -
some basic directional guidelines to be fine tuned by
the other usage rules posted at this forum
* position long while the A-D line moving averages are rising and
consider exit when any one of the four A-D line moving averages is declining, and
strongly consider exiting long when A-D line declines below the 50-day sma for multiple days
position short while the A-D line resides below the 50-day sma and above the A-D line's daily 50,2 lower Bollinger Band
( the A-D line's lower BB is the 0 line for the 50,2 %B and the 50-day sma chart location is the 0.50 line for the 50,2 %B )
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p33780305890&a=589367469&listNum=95
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21NETADSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p75206745436&a=589367463
NASARAVI - I like that you are noting the
important vigilance items as each day progresses
so it is clear what the basis
is for your entry and exit decisions.
fyi - for trading SPY and QQQ, I rely on
the daily and weekly
10 ema, 15 sma , 20 ema, 21 sma,
and 50 sma/ema for evaluating trade
exits for the purpose of potentially
reloading later at a more beneficial price
entry level.
In combination with price location within
the Bollinger Band, and what the width of
the daily and weekly BB's are saying.
* Other chart considerations for price action alone
but these are the MA's of greatest priority, and
bulls and bears always need to defend the 4-day or 5-day sma.
Monday was a good setup for exiting the QQQ short
trade considering the 10-week ema was not
fully tagged from above.
And the COMPQ McO reached the late June 2018
oversold extreme level on Monday, evident at day's end.
RIM and RCKS
Honing Critical thinking skills from your observations
Both COMPQ and NDX MC SUM dot gaps show accelerating down trends based on delta between the two immediate gaps.
Note: rule of thumb - if we go below 20 MA decisively, we go to 100 MA - trust but verify for sure
RIM and RCKS - July 30 update
1. PMOAZNDX @ 72 but below ma 34 - has red elder - indicating a sell mode
2. ADLINE NDX @ 657.50 and < ema 19 - also using 5,3,1,ema shows 5<3<1 ema means down trending
3. % BB line is at 0.43 and below 0.5 - again sell mode
4. Mc OSC - @ - 56.85 and < 0 still above lower BB 21,2, and below 0 means sell mode
5. Mc SUM @ @ 707.24 and < 5 ema red elder means sell mode
Takeaway - score 5/5 in sell mode - implies more down for NDX and TQQQ - hold short
Have a good night and watching qqq 10WMA or 50dEMA at 174 area for lasting breach
Rimshot
Better late than never - have to follow ADLINE tool. Got in 100 shares SQQQ.
Now need to hold it till the cycle bottoms.
Regards.
Rimshot - response to BB width question
After more detailed analysis - here are my comments after I saw your comments. Please do not hesitate to point out the right thing and to say I am on the wrong path.
Why root cause - as at NASA we looked at the problem with 2 aspects - proximate cause and root cause. The proximate cause was always technical in nature and root cause lay in human error. I was sure about your abilities than my thinking - so tried to see if there was some intelligence we can derive from BB width.
ADLINE is the primary or raw data. Any other entities derived from it are secondary. While it is best to use raw data, I find very intriguing that Mc OSC and MCSUM both provide a good balance to nail the bottoms.
1.agree with fast MA on AD line it works fine - with negative D and triple top with lower low -
2. MC OSC also had negative D that was very very obvious with it once coming down below 0 and going back was the clue to say that we are close to a top.
3. Mc SUM slope is very critical to start thinking about the next move - I feel strongly as you have suggested that this has been the best directional tool once you know the print tops and their divergences
4. Another clue was 3 time s% BB could not even hit the top at 1.0 or above showing significant underlying weakness
Sorry for the bother, but we had BB width and % BB on the charts and I was trying see if we could use them.
Here is what I found looking more closely - that the BB width s not highly and fully correlated with the price data at all times.
As suggested , we should just use the AD Line, Mc OSC and MCSUM as the main tools.
Take away - my curiosity started with the fact that while we had a nice spike bottom using AD LINE %BB, MCOSC that led me to believe that We can get some intelligence out of % BB and BB width. This spike could be because they sell hard into a bottom, while they take time to distribute at the top.
I am going short with SQQQ tomorrow and stay until the next turn up.
My goal - is to study these cyclic movements and trade them - to get conviction as fear or failure or fear of loosing out were playing tricks on me.
My sincere heartfelt thanks to you for introducing me to your tools - I hope to succeed in trading the right way with right tools and building knowledge and experience.
PS - saw a chart of FB - August 15 it had come to 70 which may be 4th wave. You were right on that. Thanks.
NASARAVI - here is my quick attempt to answer your question shown below .. I am about to head out for an outing, so will continue thinking about the root of your question
"Question
Is it possible to use a ema 2,3,4 discriminator on BB width to find the precise top or at least an impending top with less ambiguity?"
my Answer
if you look at the basic four A-D line charts on Page 1 of my Public List, you will see:
https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871
1. a fast moving average placed on the daily Advance-Decline values of each index
( FYI - the A-D line is a cumulative version of all these daily values beginning at the start date selected in the chart settings )
AND
you will notice these daily Advance-Decline values did NOT
reach the upper positive levels that were printed on the chart in the week ended July 13, 2018...
no ambiguity here because the shouting loudly at you for nearly two full weeks
is the Negative Divergence by the most important internal
which drives all these other Advance-Decline tools ...
there was much less internal Net Advancing going on for all four
indices after July 13th while each index price level attempted
to keep advancing into the July 26, 2018 evening when Amazon reported earnings
2. and you will see the McO
* vs. its Bollinger Band and
* vs. its zero line
for assessing directional shifts which are growing more serious
3. use #1 and #2 above combined with the changing slope AND the degree of slope by the McSum for the newest direction of the McSum
your best odds for being accurate in my opinion are using the data in #1 and #2 above for fine tuning your trade entry timing based on the McSum changing behavior as these #1 and #2 chart elements
begin to worsen, which may occur after a hesitation of one or more days ... in this case where you
are asking how best to time
your trading action as early as possible before the full price damage starts in earnest
further Answer - I will do some research on your question regarding applying a moving average to the BB BandWidth.
And get back to you once I am satisfied I have the full picture of
what is technically accurate. Could be a while before I have this
answered for you.
Good work, NASARAVI. Thanks for your serious efforts to understand how you can benefit from these A-D tools.
RIM and RCKS - ADLINE question
Yes - I am using a 5 ema discriminator.
4 top charts - studying these
1. RSP monthlywith 59 EMA for lasting support
2. SPXEW and QQQ weekly with 21,3 UBB limits
3. PMOAZNDX for daily analysis
4. ADLINE with BB MSOSC MCSUM BBWIDTH
Premise
Since ADLINE is the advancers - declines or supply and demand or buying more than selling, in downtrend lows ADLINE spikes low first and %BB MCOSC spike same time and MCSUM last - that should determine the low.
For tops, while ADLINE (triple top) this time, %BB and MCOSC were giving -ve divergence and MCSUM trailing sort of.
Question
Is it possible to use a ema 2,3,4 discriminator on BB width to find the precise top or at least an impending top with less ambiguity?
Rim, my synapses are working overtime and evlauating root and proximate cause has been my forte on challenger and Columbia. I hopeyou understand my predicament.
Thanks again for sharing and have a great weekend biking. Nice story on your partner - what a courage.
NASARAVI - do you mean the 5-day ema discriminator for the McSum?
"4. MCSUM elder is in red and below ema 3 discriminator so hedging down"
Note - the NDX McSum now resides below its 5-day ema for
four consecutive days, as of week ended July 27, 2018
Note #2 - there are five remaining McSum large acceleration advances
off the early July McSum pullback low,
so be vigilant about
how much future decline distance penetrates into these
prior large acceleration gaps to the upside for the NDX McSum
thanks for your time and work, NASARAVI ... it is
meaningful to me you are investing in your knowledge
NASARAVI - your review is accurate and thorough for the NDX.
good work!
Am happy you find value in the Advance-Decline tools.
fyi - I do also follow the 15,2 BB and %B and BandWidth for
both the daily and the weekly charts for each index.
This week ended July 27, 2018 reveals why I do this:
the first or second tag or upside violation in July of the daily 15,2 %B
resulted in a minor pullback to date for index chart
#'s 100.2 through 103 -
https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871/tenpp/2
see chart #106.3 for the QQQ weekly, which this week tagged the
weekly 15,2 upper BB for the first time since March 2018
and immediately reversed with a minor pullback to date ...
note that pullbacks are common at upper BB tags,
and do not necessarily signify a lasting decline is initiating
RIM and RCKS - update for July 27 closing
Simplicity is ultimate sophistication - Leonardo. By chipping away unwanted material, Michelangelo created statue of David.
You have eliminated noise and unwanted indicators - I have picked up on the following:
3 indicators - AD Line, MCOSC, MCSUM
2 charts - ADLINE and PMOAZNDX
1 Index - NDX
Thanks to your guidance and mentoring, I feel focused on task at hand. After today's review here's my notes:
Trying to keep it simple - using NDX index only and same 4 point format as below
1. PMONZNDX - > 0 at 723 (LT is still in uptrend) - looking at MCSUM on NASDAQ started down earlier than NDX and accelerating as dot distance is spreading
2. AD line at recent top had triple top -at 669.10 clue for the top with -ve divergence
3. MCOSC topped at 9.22 now below 0 and showed -ve Divergence at the recent top
4. MCSUM elder is in red and below ema 3 discriminator so hedging down
5. Takeaway - NDX is a sell mode at least in the ST
RIM and RCKS
Thank you for the mentoring me - I am eternally grateful to you both.
Since I trade TQQQ, today I Will focus on NDX assessment only. Keeping it simple for now.
Analysis for July 27th -Anatomy of recent Bottoms and Tops (focusing on MCSUM)
1. McSUm for prior low was on July 5 at 517.7 print bottom
Real bottom came earlier on June 27
RIM went long on June 28
NDX AD line, NDX McOSC bottomed on June 27
%BB 21,2 spike low also on June 27
Price print low came on June 27
2. MCSUM for recent high on July 25 at 799 print top
There was a prior high on MCSUM on July 19 at 850.86 print top
Severe -ve D in lower MSCUM with higher price showing impending turn down
RIM went short on June 25 late evening
Price spiked above 50,2 upper BB with negative D
-ve D on MCSUM, MCOSC,
-ve D AD line 669.39 to 669.10 for 17/25
3. General market NDX only
We have BB width down trending lower
MCOSC turning down and -ve D
MCSUM and % BB all trending down
4. Takeaway
While I did not go short as yet - as I am still learning
The trend is down
Used MCSUM with elders color code and ema 3 discriminator - helps quite a bit
5. Plan is to go long TQQQ at bottoms and SQQQ at tops
Hope I can do that as a swing trade is my goal
I would like yo get the same conviction as RIM to enter long or short and hold it
MCSUM is very very useful tool to see the ST trend as it develops and evolves
6. Kindly give feedback - to see what I am doing wrong
Have a great weekend
NASARAVI - these 2 charts will guide you
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=138634418
delete FB from your potential buy and hold list is
my read of its very long term future , even if it
travels to below $70
NASARAVI - I compliment you on your
quality review of the A-D tools
for the McSum the near-term direction
since the most recent bounce high is more relevant
to the index price action in the future than
other considerations
* I suggest you track the actual dates for each
McSum's bounce high, so you can evaluate the duration
of directional reversals ... I cannot emphasize
enough the significance and reliability of lasting directional reversals
by multiple McSum's
** The +500 level as the minimum bullish velocity
level which must be maintained applies only to $NYSI,
not the other McSum's
thank you NASARAVI
RIM and RCKS
Update for 26th July 2018 closing data
1. BB width - except for DOW all indices are showing decreasing trend - negative d
2. Prices - all four indices are at the upper 50,2 BB daily
3. ADLINE - all four indices are at upper 50,2 BB daily. - all MAs 19/39/50 stacked right means more up?
4. Mc OSC - ST indicator - all above 0, NDX at 0 or slightly -ve
5. Mc SUM - LT mkt direction - all > 500 that's good as I understand
takeaway - ST cautious and topping based on print high on NDX and SPX
Rim
I saw you hot out of FB completely.
I want to own and accumulate 1-10 shares of AMZN AAPL GOOGL - maybe NFLX and FB later.
Now that AMZN and GOOGL are out of earnings - is it good to buy them?
Using daily 50,2 Upper BB, I saw that they AMZN AAPL GOOGL are very close to the top and close to 15,2 weekly Upper BB top?
I also saw you went short on OEX as it hit the top at 50,2 upper BB.
So kindly guide me also to buy and accumulate like you did for your accounts with FB.
Staying away from FB till 145 as per your guidance.
Swing trading on FAANG also will be great to get a steady income in my retirement.
Regards.
RIM and RCKS
1. Started looking at BB width and concur that except DOW all other indices display a declining trend
2. A/D line for all four indices shows 19 over 39 over 50 indicating still in uptrend
3. DOW Mc Osc is above 0, while for other three indices are trending down and below 0 (ST directional view)
4. LT view using the Mc SUM index - shows DOW SUM index turning up and raising, for other three indices we have all above 500 but turning down
Takeaway
1. DOW is stronger than other 3 indices
Notice to Posters: the sole purpose of this board
and the only reason I took the time to create the
board is to educate and mentor NASARAVI using
my personal guidelines for applying selected
Advance-Decline analytical tools
other Posters are welcome to observe this one-on-one
mentoring take place
Please refrain from adding your opinions or information that
YOU think may be relevant
what this board is about is for NASARAVI to learn selected chart-based
details of how I personally go about the business of making
profitable trades and minimizing losses by determining
the probability for the staying power of declines or advances
MYOB = Mind your Own Business
stay out of the Business being conducted at this Board, please
this board will not be maintained if my request is not respected
trade style is directional swing trading or intermediate-term position trading
BB BandWidth is declining for each A-D line through July 20, 2018
( except for the Dow A-D line )
www.stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:bollinger_band_width
NASARAVI - it is important to be looking ahead as you
watch how the charts for the A-D lines develop, so in that
topic please study this excerpt from the above Link
AND
learn from what actually takes place in the future for
the A-D line charts and their daily 50,2 BB Bandwidths
"The bands narrow as price flattens or moves within a relatively narrow range.
The theory is that periods of low volatility are followed by periods of high volatility.
Relatively narrow BandWidth (a.k.a. the Squeeze) can foreshadow a significant advance or decline.
After a Squeeze, a price surge and subsequent band break signal the start of a new move.
A new advance starts with a Squeeze and subsequent break above the upper band.
A new decline starts with a Squeeze and subsequent break below the lower band.
A squeeze followed by a break above the upper band is bullish, while a squeeze followed by a break below the lower band is bearish.
Be careful of head-fakes however.
Sometimes the first break fails to hold as prices reverse the other way.
Strong breaks hold and seldom look back. An upside breakout followed by an immediate pullback should serve as a warning."
RIM & RCKS
Following the 4 charts and the updated NYA chart carefully and did not what to clutter to board with unnecessary messages.
I will try to update once a day to see the status.
I see few issues with the chart
1. NYA chart with 5 day indicator RCKS mentioned fell below 0
2. Most importantly the Mc oscillators and BB % are turning down
3. based on AD line there is still no sell signal as there is no cross of the EMAs
Best regards.
Tom McClellan article on A-D Line Data
Supposed superiority of Common Stock Only A-D data over NYA A-D data
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/the_supposed_superiority_of_common_only_a-d_data/
RCKS - good to know you are paying attention.
My anti-malware and browser identified a potential threat
when I opened the Link you shared from another IHub post
about the AD line for the NYSE exchange, so I deleted Post
#21 … when time permits, feel free to post the Link directly
from the McClellan Financial Publications website for that topic
thanks for sharing the info.
I need to close my browser and run some safeguard operations now,
or would perform the Link share myself.
rimshot
Market has not given sell signals yet. NYSE common stock AD Dots have almost rested on the 5 ema and then yesterday popped off it a bit but still quite near it.
Paying attention.
Thanks
McSum vs. Arthur Hill's 5-day ema for 4 indices -
** directional reversal by the McSum
is signaled early by the McSum holding below
its 5-day ema **
with only a few false signals over time
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21PMOAZSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p13898560818&a=587504104
improved A-D line charts -
** a strong uptrend is characterized by numerous tags of the
50,2 upper Bollinger Band by the Advance-Decline line **
* the multi-day direction of the McO will provide an early
indication of the near-term direction that is developing for the McSum, a pay close attention to the number of consecutive days the McO
spends above or below the zero line
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21ADLINESPX&p=D&st=2018-05-01&id=p19588720479&a=607135436
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21ADLINENYC&p=D&st=2018-05-01&id=p99083929613&a=607135437
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21ADLINENDX&p=D&st=2018-05-01&id=p50314949220&a=607135438
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21ADLINEDOW&p=D&st=2018-05-01&id=p42154384721&a=607135439
cumulative McO for the S&P 500, with H lines updated through July 19 levels
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCOSIRNYC&p=D&st=2015-04-01&id=p81106414710&a=605612229
McSum status as of Tuesday July 17:
Summary: mixed status, with priority chart evaluation merit to
be given to the developing McSum setup by the NYSE common-stocks-only
based on decades of high reliability that is correlated
with the eventual price outcome for the broad US market indices
when this McSum displays a hesitation pattern or a directional reversal
S&P 500 - up into the Tuesday bounce high
S&P 100 - up into the Tuesday bounce high
S&P 400 - Friday's bounce high followed by 2 down days
S&P 600 - last Tuesday's bounce high followed by 5 down days
Dow Jones - up into the Tuesday bounce high
NYSE all issues - Friday's bounce high followed by 2 down days
NYSE common stocks only - Friday's bounce high followed by 1 down day & 1 flat day
Nasdaq - last Tuesday's bounce high followed by 4 down days with 1 slight up day last week
Nasdaq 100 - up into the Tuesday July 17h bounce high
charts are viewed here -
https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871
Erin Swenlin's chart set includes one
chart in which the two lower indicators are displaying
a declining trend last week AND this week for the near-term
S&P 500 Advance-Decline measures -
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79921070173&a=472625581
Note replying to NASARAVI - some of
the A-D lines display lower highs since last week,
so I call that a declining trend, until those lower highs
are actually surpassed
AND
noting the changes in the near-term direction of the McSum's
is extremely important, especially since the most recent
attempt for the McSum's to bounce is now only days old and in some cases the bounce has stalled or reversed
RIM and RCKS
First, I want to sincerely thank you for setting up the 4 charts in the Sam evildoer for quick review.
Based on my review of the four charts - A/D line, McOsc and McSum in that order, I see
1. All indices indicate their ADV-DEC lines above the 19/39/50 MA and pointing upwards
2. The ADV-DEC lines are still below the UBB (poking upper BB is sort of topping pattern last 3 times)
3. McOSc is above 0 for SPX, NDX and DOW and below 0 for NYC and NAS ( short term view)
4. McSum for all indices is above 0
5. All BB% are close to the top near the UBB of 21 and 50 BB
We may see some ST weakness in 1-3 days - just an observation based on item 5?
Hope You can review my evaluation of charts to guide me further.
Regards.
to the NYSE common-stocks-only A-D line chart, I
have added the daily Net Advancers minus Decliners
for both the common-stocks-only and the all issues
for the NYSE -
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21ADLINENYC&p=D&st=2018-05-14&id=p89162045671&a=606320645
yes, RCKS
FYI - here is a 2011 link showing one of Arthur Hill's chart tricks for
timing or confirming the actual McSum reversals in which he plots a McSum vs. its 5-day ema
stockcharts.com/articles/dont_ignore_this_chart/2011/12/nyse-mcclellan-summation-index-turns-down-nya-nysi.html
personally, I prefer use of McSum dots for the ability to evaluate acceleration distances in either direction for any day, as well as examining the flattening hesitation patterns which exist
and keeping track of the # days duration the hesitation actually lasts
rimshot
Thanks
I believe you are referring to the MC Sum reading of near 600 (595 +/-)
and the last two readings of near 580, 580.79 today?
RCKS - yes, agree with your observations
with reliability in prior years/decades:
the current though brief hesitation pattern since last week by the McSum for
the NYSE common-stocks-only data set deserves much respect until such time last week's McO spike high for that data set is matched OR surpassed
what is setting up for that data set since last week's McO spike high and the later flattening of its McSum is a potential McSum upward failure and downside reversal until the prior week's McO spike high is again approached … based on past high reliability for the actual price outcomes resulting from this "warning":
this currently developing set up for this data set has priority in its chart evaluation merit and potential price impact over the other symbol data sets, with the exception of the NDX-100 which stands alone on its own merits
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21ADLINENYC&p=D&st=2018-05-14&id=p59714661888&a=606320645
hope this detail is explained clearly
rimshot
Looking at the A/D Line charts, they all still have room to move up before tagging the top BB. All are above the ema's 19 & 39, which are climbing upwards.
Technically the SPX hasn't tagged the top BB yet, although it came very close on the 10th.
four daily charts as a time saver for daily review which include:
1. S&P500
2. NYSE common-stocks-only
3. Nasdaq 100
4. Dow Jones Industrial
the Advance-Decline breadth lines with 3 moving averages & 50,2 BB and A-D line 50,2 Bandwidth
the McClellan Summation index
the McClellan Oscillator for each index, and for related indices
* it is optimal for the continued bullish case if the McO's remain above their zero line for the majority of the time
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21ADLINESPX&p=D&st=2018-05-14&id=p89394825805&a=606324130
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21ADLINENYC&p=D&st=2018-05-14&id=p31170550999&a=606320645
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21ADLINENDX&p=D&st=2018-05-14&id=p45536226064&a=606327115
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21ADLINEDOW&p=D&st=2018-05-14&id=p91620445250&a=606329373
Reminder:
The McClellan Oscillator is the difference between the 19-EMA & 39-EMA of daily advances minus declines.
It reflects the short-term strength and direction of market liquidity.
A longer-term view is provided by the McClellan Summation Index, which is the cumulative total of the daily McClellan Oscillator values.
Note - it has been observed in the past by some technicians that the customary duration of directional moves by the McSum is 10 to 16 weeks … though I have observed since early November 2016 the durations have varied considerably
S&P 500 McSum character by year excluding directions lasting less than 4 weeks:
2018 through July 13
up, down, up, down, up
2017
down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up
2016
down, up, down, up, down, up
* the 2016 McSum duration lengths were longer than in 2017 and about
the same length as seen so far in 2018
2010 article by Arthur Hill, CMT explaining the
key difference between an Advance-Decline line
vs. an Advance-Decline volume line:
stockcharts.com/articles/mailbag/2010/07/the-ad-line-versus-ad-volume-line.html
excerpt -
"The AD Line and AD Volume Line are both breadth indicators, but the AD Line favors small-mid caps and the AD Volume Line favors large-caps. Every day there are some 3000 stocks traded on the NYSE and 2700 stocks traded on the Nasdaq. The vast majority of these are small and mid-cap issues. Large-caps are the minority."
McSum status as of Friday July 13:
Summary - unusually strong upward acceleration lasting more than a week
for the breadth plurality
( see the Intro section to this board for McSum acceleration events defined )
S&P 500 - 6 days up, with 5 days of large acceleration distance
S&P 100 - 7 days up, with 5 days of large acceleration distance
S&P 400 - 7 days up, with 3 days of large acceleration distance
S&P 600 - 4 days up followed by 3 days down
Dow Jones - 7 day up, with 6 days of large acceleration distance
NYSE all issues - 7 days up, with 5 days of large acceleration distance
NYSE common stocks only - 7 days up, with 3 days of large acceleration distance
Nasdaq - 4 days up followed by 3 days of flat
Nasdaq 100 - 6 days up, with 5 days of large acceleration distance
* the 19 day and 39 day ema's for the Advance-Decline lines for all of the groups listed above
are rising and the 19 rests above the 39 in a bullish setup
… the Dow Jones A-D setup had been declining and crossed up into a new bullish setup this week
charts are viewed here -
https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871
I do not expect to make board updates again until
the week ended July 20 … readers can follow this example
for the specific chart review tasks making up the daily work
of remaining on the correct and profitable side of the trading direction
supported by the Advance-Decline breadth plurality measures, and note
the Advance-Decline volume plurality is not being addressed at this
board though it does merit similar consideration …
Erin and Carl Swenlin often point out divergences in their chart set when the Volume plurality trends
are divergent from the Breadth plurality trends
NAS
look forward to your participation in this data set, I think discussion benefits everyone paying attention.
Have a great Sunday
Rim and RCKS
Awesome start - good luck and God speed as we say in NASA.
Thanks again for your diligent efforts - contacted BB folks and reviewed your charts to assess how to use BB and ADV-DEC info.
Will study these charts as well.
Regards.
S&P 500 index daily charts:
* position long while the A-D line moving averages are rising and
consider exit when any one of the four A-D line moving averages is declining, and
strongly consider exiting long when A-D line declines below the 50-day sma
for multiple days
position short while the A-D line resides below the 50-day sma and above the A-D line's daily 50,2 lower Bollinger Band
( the A-D line's lower BB is the 0 line for the 50,2 %B and the 50-day sma chart location is the 0.50 line for the 50,2 %B )
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p33780305890&a=589367469&listNum=95
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21NETADSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p75206745436&a=589367463
NYSE common-stocks-only daily charts:
* position long while the A-D line moving averages are rising and
consider exit when any one of the four A-D line moving averages is declining, and
strongly consider exiting long when A-D line declines below the 50-day sma
for multiple days
position short while the A-D line resides below the 50-day sma and above the A-D line's daily 50,2 lower Bollinger Band
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p24071965311&a=589367465
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21ADLINENYC&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p11056877291&a=589367464
rimshot let me be the first to post here as a full endorsement of this effort.
I look forward to seeing your work going forward on A/D analysis and use of Bollinger Bands applied to Advance-Decline.
Awesome
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