Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
With a stop at 20 could be interesting
$COFFEE with a HUGE reversal today... JO joins the party...
Commodities index $CRB supported by the MA200...
This pull back is a possible enrty/re-entry for JO/$COFFEE
Morgan Stanley Reports Brazil Coffee Rain Damage And Mkt Biased Against Losses, Ag Agencies Confirm As Much As 36% Of Arabica Crop Hit
http://spilling-the-beans.net/breaking-frost-strikes-brazils-key-southern-minas-coffee-belt-damage-reported-as-frost-alert-extended-for-4-days/
JUNE 17 UPDATE:
*New report by New York-based financial services corporation Morgan Stanley says the damage in Brazil from unseasonal heavy rains during May are potentially as high as 36 percent of the TOTAL harvest in the key coffee producing regions of Southern Minas and Sao Paulo, areas that account for over 60 percent of Brazil’s total harvest and over 80 percent of the Brazilian Arabica crop. The figure for the scale of the potential rain damage was not Morgan Stanley’s own research or evaluation but attributed to the Brazil Farm Ecnomy Institute, IEA.
*Morgan Stanley also say that “a bias exists” from trade and managed money to ignore the extend of losses in Brazil
*Morgan Stanley also CONFIRM PROJECTIONS by SpillingTheBeans that the current harvest is between 25-50 percent completed, saying actual figures are at 34 percent complete by June 14th, leaving AMPLE room for weather impact to keep the new coffee in Brazil vulnerable.
–SpillingTheBeans has NOT seen the original report, only extracts. Stay tuned for more updates!
(MORE)
JUNE 16:
*Brazil’s SOMAR says new intense cold front provoked by La Niña / La Nina can continue to hit coffee regions in Brazil across Southern Minas, Sao Paulo and Parana for a full 3 months more all the way through September. See full story here (in Portuguese), English translation coming up:Brazil’s coffee regions at frost risk for 3 more months as La Nina cold extended
*SOMAR AgroMeteorologist Marco Antonio dos Santos Confirms “There HAS been damage in Southern Minas, Sao Paulo and Parana – there will be losses.” See the full interview here (in Portuguese), English translation coming up:Brazil’s Somar CONFIRMS frost damage to coffee in Southern Minas, Sao Paulo and Parana
Off the recent highs but still on track... JO
No regrets at all... The bull is on!!! JO
Best decision of the year... The $COFFEE bull... JO
Brazil frost threat early next week over southern regions. Models bringing heavy rains same areas week of 19th to 25th....
Good day. Hopefully US dollar stays weaker vs Brazilian. Hopefully wet wx followed by freeze. Time for JO to start rising and hold daily gains
Yup it seems the bigger move after next week ultimately depends on rate hike or not
$COFFEE/JO with a nice week...
Agree, Could test 17.5 at minimum
The candle pattern in coffee/JO is crazy bearish...
I agree as it the absolute most beaten down of all commodities including oil in the past 10 years... DBA could do extremely well along with RJA. All this can be confirmed with a chart overlay of the $CRB.
Agreed I had SGG at 25 but saw El Nino causing drought in India, sold too soon at 34 a ways back. Hope JO follows suit.
Glad to see her ousted. I feel most all commodities are in the early stages of a bull. Coffee could lead.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RJA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p74067688365
Nice hits premarket. Saw 20K ask slap at 19.75. Thats 400K buy! With the suspension of Rousseff the Brazillian dollar is gaining strength. Maybe the start of a run here as a lot of carry over supply was liquidated. If we can get current waning El Nino and potentially La Nina this Fall to cause weather impacts, maybe JO runs.
Can't gain any traction...see if we can hold 18 after today.
Agreed. Though I wouldn't mind a dip to 17 again. Odds of La Nina this fall increasing, typically brings too much rain to Brazil and leaf rust. With the relatively strong dollar to the other currencies in coffee land, many have liquidated their stored stocks. Might take awhile, but 6 months from now we could be north of $30.00 Will also depend on the Fed raising rates again. Risk-reward worth it IMO. Holding.....
What does it mean in simple terms? Jo's candle today is ugg
Any thoughts on this?
CUSIP: 06739H297
Description: IPATH BLOOMBERG COFFEE SUB ETN
The above-listed stock is part of a non-mandatory reorganization or tender offer, which currently expires on 04/27/2016.
JO broke the 200 day MA. It needs a couple days up here to confirm. but if it does, I can see $43 by years end.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54117211449
Good play Pro-Life
All commodities could keep rising off a crashing dollar.
http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx
Good recent video from a guy who forecasted the mortgage meltdown in 2007, BEFORE it happened.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8K6gQeC9f8U
Coffee bull is starting a stampede!!!
JO looking to gap up this morning...
Watching coffee closely tomorrow.
A short time back, I bought Mar 18 calls... we shall see.
I bought that for a long term play about 2 weeks after you brought it up about 6 months ago. Just took a peek at it and it looks like it might be time to add some down here. Thanks PL
It doubled before in 6 months. I like all commodities in general, always favored food.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01032369200
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=webchart&btn=s_ok&s_symbol_select=AMEX%3AJO&ctl00%24sb3%24tbq1=Get+Quote&as_values_IH=&ctl00%24sb3%24stb1=Search+iHub&symbol=AMEX%3AJO&s_ok=Get+Chart&period=7&drawmode=0&size=19&volume=1
wow... the bull is on, JO!!!
Another way to play this commodity bull in $COFFEE is with the ETF JO... GL!!!
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=118921623
JO may just pop 50-100%. My SGG already up 25%
El Nino, soft commodities going to rock in coming months.
Coffee Market Report
08 Oct 2015
The National Coffee Growers Federation of Colombia had reported a good October 2014 to September 2015 coffee year and with production for the period registered at 13,333,000 bags had initially indicated that these production levels are likely to be maintained, for this new October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year. However they have followed up with statement that the prevailing El Nino phenomenon might actually start to impact and that the longer term effects of the drier weather that comes with this phenomenon shall start to impact upon production during the coming year.
One cannot ignore the effects of the El Nino phenomenon and its impact upon longer term production in Central America, Colombia, Peru and Indonesia, but with the new crop for Central America already related to well-developed cherries, it is more what might happen in the coming year for Colombia, Peru and Indonesia that is a concern. Albeit the on the longer term and if the El Nino brings with it significantly drier weather for Central America, it may well impact upon the next October 2016 to March 2017 harvest for this region. Thus it is a factor that shall without doubt; continue to be highlighted within the coffee press for some months to come and if there is more obvious reality to the problem, it could be a factor to trigger the funds to start liquidating their short positions with the markets and to inspire a significant rally within the markets.
Aside from the El Nino story there remains little in the way of striking fundamental news coming to the coffee markets for the present, with the more prominent and volatile New York market rather being directed by the overall fund assessment of the commodity markets in general. There is however aside from the renewed fund interest in commodities some degree of support coming from the modest recovery of the Brazil Real relative to the U.S. dollar, which has seen the real that had fallen to over 4 to the dollar now trading at 3.88 to the dollar, which has an impact upon selling volumes from Brazil.
Good morning.. Still holding here. I feel real good about my entry prices on this. Always did plan on it being a long term hold. This will be golden with in the year IMHO
El Nino Strikes Again.
05 Oct 2015
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the Non Commercial Speculative sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 12.86% during the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 29th. September; to register a net short sold position of 29,040 Lots. This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 8,232,711 bags has most likely been further decreased, following the period of mixed but overall more positive trade which has since followed.
While awaiting the final green coffee export figure from Honduras, the National Coffee Institute of Honduras have predicted that these exports shall contribute to the country’s exports for the October 2014 to September 2015 coffee year to being approximately 5.06 million bags, while they forecast that with the new crop now heading towards maturity that exports shall rise by 9% for this new October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year. In this respect the National Coffee Institute are forecasting exports for this new coffee year, to be approximately 5.52 million bags.
This rather positive forecast from Honduras and in terms of the new crop potential, is despite the recent evidence the negative dry weather effects of the prevailing El Nino phenomenon within the Pacific Ocean, which has brought with it drier weather for Central America. The drier conditions that have come with the El Nino having already had an impact upon crop in the lower altitude regions of Honduras and their neighbours in Central America, with evidence of lower production levels for many basic food crops.
In the meantime there are reports out of Indonesia of El Nino related drier weather conditions and with fears for partial drought for the last quarter of this year being voiced, with the Association of Coffee Exporters in Indonesia already talking about the possibility of a significantly lower new coffee crop for the coming year. In this respect on official from the association has voiced that should the dry weather continue, it could reduce the next year’s crop by as much as 35% and result in coffee production hitting a twenty six year low at around 7.5 million bags.
There have so far not been similar fears voiced by coffee officials in Colombia and Peru, who are most usually along with Indonesia very much in the front line of the negative effects of the El Nino phenomenon, but one might expect that with the El Nino now reality that there might soon be such reports coming to the fore. Thus there is the potential in the coming weeks for these weather related reports to start to impact upon speculative sentiment within the coffee markets, which might contribute to some degree of the presently relatively soft markets for the last quarter of this year.
The coffee districts in Vietnam are presently in receipt of rain conditions which shall need to come to a close for the start to the new harvest being triggered, so for the present there is no pressure upon the farmers and internal traders to start to make space to receive new crop coffees. Thus with the reference prices of the London robusta coffee market remaining relatively soft, the internal market price resistance for sales of past crop coffee stocks continues to inflate asking export price differentials and to slow the pace of Vietnam coffee sales and exports.
El Nino strikes! Sugar anyway, hopefully coffee to follow.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/indian-suffers-first-two-year-drought-in-3-decades--8832.html
Main Brazil coffee growing region may benefit from El Nino, we shall see. Sugar however getting hit hard in India. I grabbed some SGG in august as well as JO. JO not so good so far. Brazilian dollar doing most of the damage. Hopefully commodities hard and soft bounce back hard in coming months.
A big-time buying opportunity is setting up in this popular commodity
From Brett Eversole, Analyst, True Wealth Systems:
Coffee prices are on the verge of soaring…
Today, investors hate commodities… and coffee is no exception.
The last time we saw a setup like this, coffee prices rocketed nearly 72% higher in just four months. And over the past decade, these opportunities would have led to 25% average gains in just more than four months.
Coffee isn’t a “buy” just yet. But a fantastic opportunity is setting up right now.
Let me explain…
Futures traders are currently betting against coffee at one of the highest paces we’ve ever seen. We can see this with the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for coffee.
As longtime readers know, the COT is a weekly report that shows the real-money bets of futures traders. Most of the time, this report doesn’t tell us much. But when futures traders all agree, it can be a powerful contrarian indicator.
In the case of coffee, when futures traders are all betting on lower prices, the opposite tends to happen… Coffee prices tend to soar.
Today, the COT report shows that futures traders are uniformly negative on coffee. They’re betting on lower prices with the strongest conviction that we’ve seen in years. Take a look…
XxxxxxX
A reading less than -14,000 has been a powerful negative reading over the past decade. And that’s where we are today.
Importantly, coffee prices tend to rally after the COT report hits extreme negativity and then rebounds to a reading of 0 or higher. If you had bought each time that happened over the previous decade, you’d have made 25% average gains in just more than four months. Take a look…
Buy Date
Return to Peak
Time (Months)
12/1/2006
17.8%
4.2
10/12/2007
20.1%
4.8
6/1/2009
24.0%
5.1
8/16/2013
-9.7%
3.5
4/25/2014
71.6%
4.0
Average
24.8%
4.3
This setup has happened five times over the past decade. And all but one of these trades were winners. The largest gain was nearly 72% in four months last year.
The COT report for coffee is currently hitting negative extremes. So we’ll need to see it rebound before we consider buying. And luckily, we don’t have to be futures traders to bet on coffee prices…
We can easily bet on higher prices with the iPath Bloomberg Coffee Fund (NYSE: JO). This fund tracks the price of coffee… and it’s a simple way to make this trade.
Once again, we need to see the COT indicate a rebound above 0 before we buy. But once that happens, 25% gains in around four months are possible. And you can easily make the trade through shares of JO. Keep this idea on your radar and be prepared to buy soon.
Always looking to add if it goes lower..IMO This is a great md to long term hold..I love having it in my portfolio as low as I was able to buy it.Hope you are doing well..
Fund is at an all time low. Can bounce quick and I think it will. El Nino and the new cold brew. If all pans out, I could see a double in 6 months.... Then again if the Brazillion dollar keeps weakening against the US dollar, that would be a head wind.
Meanwhile and with the new Brazil crop near to completion and despite the host of new crop forecasts that tend to point towards an approximate 4 million bags deficit new crop of 48 million bags, the National Statistics Institute in Brazil have forecasted that this new crop will only be 43.7 million bags. This Institute is however traditionally very conservative with its numbers and it is quite apparent from speculative trade reaction on Friday, that the dramatically low figure was largely ignored.
The Coffee Board of India has reported that the country’s coffee exports for the first thirty seven weeks of this year up to the 10th. September was 1.77% lower than the same period last year, at a total of 3,143,700 bags. This lower export performance report is however no reflection upon the approximately 12% larger overall new crop that is fuelling these exports, but rather the evidence of internal market price resistance that has prevailed this year, which has impacted upon the countries coffee exports.
The National Coffee Federation of Colombia has assisted to further dampen speculative spirits within the New York market with their forecast for an approximate 5% increase in coffee production for the coming year, which they now see to be approximately 13.7 million bags. These Colombian coffees adding, along with the forecasts for an overall larger new Central American crop that is soon due to start being harvested and the potential for some recovery in the Peru crop next year, more fine coffee to the already adequate consumer market supply for the coming October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year.
There is however some question in terms of Colombian, Peruvian and Indonesian longer term coffee production, which come with the prevailing El Nino phenomenon within the Pacific Ocean which is so far proving to be relatively a relatively mild El Nino and not yet damaging. However there are conflicting forecasts with some indicating that it shall start to wane during the second quarter of next year, while others forecast that it may well strengthen in intensity and bring with it damaging dry weather for the Pacific Rim coffee producing countries. Thus one can expect much debate over the intensity of the El Nino and the corresponding speculation of the damage it will cause, in the coming months. Albeit that so far, the El Nino has done nothing to support speculative sentiment within the coffee markets.
Bit of an over supply working through the market. Good load zone IMO. El Nino to wreak havoc with soft commodities. Could be a double in the making here. Sugar worth a hard look as well IMO. Maybe Cocoa too....
Double bottom on the stock, Uses double the amount of coffee, sound like a double winner
Cold brew coming on strong. Uses twice the amount of coffee. http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/03/reuters-america-insight-americans-taste-for-cold-brew-transforms-summertime-coffee-market.html
El Niño typically brings wetter rainy wx to south Brazil coffee regions. Rust mold? Dry wx in Columbia insect infestation. Sugar SGG might do quite well. I picked up a few. Watching WEAT. Soft Commodities at multi year lows, big El Niño and boom. Investment community not buying strong El Niño but all the wx evidence is there
Yes sir, I planned on this being a mid to long term hold when I bought it. Coffee is in second place today with the VIX in first.
http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx
Good! Was probably some stink sheet FPOS lol. Some big hits today. Maybe a price point has been hit? Like my chances here. I don't expect a quick flip. Should know a good direction potential SP this fall once we see how El Nino sets up. Been loading commodities in the 401K. We shall see.....
We have been in something else together, I can't remember what though. How have you been?
I have had a bid set at 20.75 for about a week when Pro-life posted the monthly coffee chart on the ATM board. I got lucky and it gapped past it yesterday so was able to get it even cheaper.
Followers
|
6
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
131
|
Created
|
03/09/11
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators |
iPath® Bloomberg Coffee Subindex Total ReturnSM ETN
http://www.ipathetn.com/US/16/en/details.app?instrumentId=31021
The iPath® Bloomberg Coffee Subindex Total ReturnSM ETNs (the "ETNs") are designed to provide exposure to the Bloomberg Coffee Subindex Total ReturnSM(the "Index"). The ETNs are riskier than ordinary unsecured debt securities and have no principal protection. The ETNs are unsecured debt obligations of the issuer, Barclays Bank PLC, and are not, either directly or indirectly, an obligation of or guaranteed by any third party. Any payment to be made on the ETNs, including any payment at maturity or upon redemption, depends on the ability of Barclays Bank PLC to satisfy its obligations as they come due. An investment in the ETNs involves significant risks, including possible loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all investors.
The Index reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on coffee. The Index currently consists of one futures contract on the commodity of coffee which is included in the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total ReturnSM. Owning the ETNs is not the same as owning interests in the commodities futures contracts comprising the Index or a security directly linked to the performance of the Index. For additional information regarding the risks associated with the ETNs, please see "Selected Risk Considerations" below.
DAILY | WEEKLY | |
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |