Fund is at an all time low. Can bounce quick and I think it will. El Nino and the new cold brew. If all pans out, I could see a double in 6 months.... Then again if the Brazillion dollar keeps weakening against the US dollar, that would be a head wind.
Meanwhile and with the new Brazil crop near to completion and despite the host of new crop forecasts that tend to point towards an approximate 4 million bags deficit new crop of 48 million bags, the National Statistics Institute in Brazil have forecasted that this new crop will only be 43.7 million bags. This Institute is however traditionally very conservative with its numbers and it is quite apparent from speculative trade reaction on Friday, that the dramatically low figure was largely ignored.
The Coffee Board of India has reported that the country’s coffee exports for the first thirty seven weeks of this year up to the 10th. September was 1.77% lower than the same period last year, at a total of 3,143,700 bags. This lower export performance report is however no reflection upon the approximately 12% larger overall new crop that is fuelling these exports, but rather the evidence of internal market price resistance that has prevailed this year, which has impacted upon the countries coffee exports.
The National Coffee Federation of Colombia has assisted to further dampen speculative spirits within the New York market with their forecast for an approximate 5% increase in coffee production for the coming year, which they now see to be approximately 13.7 million bags. These Colombian coffees adding, along with the forecasts for an overall larger new Central American crop that is soon due to start being harvested and the potential for some recovery in the Peru crop next year, more fine coffee to the already adequate consumer market supply for the coming October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year.
There is however some question in terms of Colombian, Peruvian and Indonesian longer term coffee production, which come with the prevailing El Nino phenomenon within the Pacific Ocean which is so far proving to be relatively a relatively mild El Nino and not yet damaging. However there are conflicting forecasts with some indicating that it shall start to wane during the second quarter of next year, while others forecast that it may well strengthen in intensity and bring with it damaging dry weather for the Pacific Rim coffee producing countries. Thus one can expect much debate over the intensity of the El Nino and the corresponding speculation of the damage it will cause, in the coming months. Albeit that so far, the El Nino has done nothing to support speculative sentiment within the coffee markets.
