Replies to post #175357 on Biotech Values

[Summer2762]

OGXI

I agree with the title "Don’t Bank on OncoGeneX Phase III Data".

However, I would have agreed with the opposite title as well. "Don't dismiss/write off Oncogenex Phase III Data".

Even though I do not know the exact mechanism of action, I believe custirsen is an active drug especially after the SATURN trial.

$OGXI. A trial (SATURN) reaches stat. sig. (p=0.032, cox) and the co does not shout it from the rooftops. A first? pic.twitter.com/DOcm0uy8D0

— Summer (@Summer2762) February 5, 2014

However, I also believe the trial is underpowered. if we assume an OS delta of 2m, the trial is only 30% powered. At the extremes, 0m OS delta will give you 2.5% and 4m will give you 60%. So the truth is somewhere in between.

So I agree with people who say that the trial will likely fail but it is not doomed to fail as they say. This makes it a true gamble.