Replies to post #5223 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[bbking2003]

You forgot one more positive thing nwbo has moved up quite a bit while were waiting even though the short trying to take it down from the high and it doesn't look like they're accomplishing that much with all the newsletters and storm of short Brashers 24 seven posting for couple of days we really haven't moved that much south from the high that tells me nwbo is holding up pretty strong!

[flipper44]

Yes the 33 patients carried over from 2005-2008. This has been discussed in older posts along with multiple other factors, like 80% response rate in over 200 patients with 1000 treatments excluding the phase three trial.

[obuhz]

Almost no chance to hold the trail for futility at this very early stage.

I have to remind you that the phase II trial of IMUC did not meet its primary endpoint in the final analysis by a large margin but it wasn't killed in the interim analysis.

Unless dcvax-L facilitates tumor, it won't be stopped at 66 events not to mention that are many endpoints built in the trail. It is hard to imagine dcavx-L missed all of them.

[john1045]

Cmon off the ledge MolBiol! Do some research into the science and you will see DCVax on cutting edge of immunotherapy.

over 200 trial and compassionate use patients and trial patients with over 1000 vaccinations with > 80 response rate in multiple cancers.

Affiliations world class oncology instiutions such as Kings College in UK, Fraunhofer in Germany, MD. Anderson, UCLA...go through the 54 listed clinics in US and all are very high level oncology centers.

DMC is approaching 12 weeks and if this trial was going to be stopped for futility it would happen at 6 weeks...no question in my mind on this. DCVax also in over 1000 vaccinations has only had 1 adverse event...allergic reaction not a fatality. I am on board with Flipper and Doc logic at Seeking Alpha that more discussion are ongoing between NWBO, DMC, FDA, PEI in Germany, MHRA in UK due to it being an international trial with significant patient ramifications being it is GBM and one of the most aggressive forms of cancer.

ASCO presentation by Dr. Subbiah from MD Anderson which was just issued in recent Reuters PR. I believe Direct is getting very encouraging results on patients enrolled in all inoperable tumors trial. I do not believe Dr. Subbiah would venture out and presnt his findings at ASCO without some very promising data.

I could keep going but this is more than enough but everyone here has to form their own decisions as an investment. I am very comfortable with my investment in NWBO and contiue t manage my risk in this investment like anything else but I am LONG with NWBO. GLTA!

[Moose_Bite]

MolBiol, ultimately we have a Schrodinger's cat problem here. Until we get the news and we know one way or the other the most accurate thing we can say is that there is roughly 50/50 chance of a positive outcome. However,I am convinced of a few things that lead me to favor a positive outcome. Keep in mind that I have no information other than that publicly available and this is solely my opinion as a John Q. Nobody.

1. All trail data to date that I have been able to uncover for various incarnations of DCVax has been very positive. Furthermore, while my training is in astrophysics not biology, the science does appears to be sound to me.

2. I do not believe for a second that NWBO would "sit" on the DMC's decision regardless of what it was. This news is obviously something that will materially impact the share price and to do so would not only expose them to shareholder lawsuits, but also expose them to possible criminal prosecution by the SEC. Ergo, we do not have the verdict yet because the DMC has not given it to NWBO yet.

3. The DMC is an utterly separate entity from NWBO. The DMC has no skin in a particular recommendation. Their chief concern is making sure that the results they analyze support their ultimate recommendation and to insure the integrity and safety of the trial. A miss-step there could expose them to substantial liability.

4. The primary endpoint was set very low for this trial. An improvement in PFS of roughly 1/3rd that seen in previous trials.

5. Now this one is anecdotal, but from personal experience. When I was doing my lab work in college and I came up with a statistical result that was far out of the bounds of what I expected, my first inclination was not "eureka!", it was "oh crap, what did I screw up?". A negative result was easy to verify. As was a result in line with expectation. The only result that made me burn the midnight oil and do the whole blasted thing over again was something unexpected. To me, the expected results here would be either ineffective, or a PFS improvement in the neighborhood of 6 additional months.

That is just my conclusion and why I am not worried about the delay. I'm just anxious to get the word on it.

[ou71764]

MolBiol, you are wise to remain skeptical. I have been burned by more than one biotech! Who knows, the odds may be much greater than 50-50 that the news from the DMC will be bad. None of us knows what will happen.

But the cure for "what if we get bad news" isn't to argue what's going to happen - none of us knows. The solution is to bet the right amount. If the vaccine works, even a $1,000 investment will return a very substantial payoff.

As the old Wall Street expression goes, sell to your sleeping point.

But I know DCVax-L has cured people. I don't care how young these people were, IMO that isn't why they were cured. Young people die from GBM all the time. Therefore I know that people have been cured of a lethal form of cancer by taking DCVax-L. So I'm staying long.