Replies to post #8096 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

Great question re PBR, but I stand by the negative view in #msg-51214642 (from 2010).

If anyone here thinks differently, please post!

[jbog]

I'd be very cautious before touching anything controlled by the Brazilian government. I'd think that PBR will turn into a Pemex type situation before long.

The energy situation (primary gasoline/heating) is probably the biggest stumbling block in brazil's future growth. In December, gasoline was selling for over $6 (u.s.) per gallon while the normal worker earns closer to $4.50 -$5.00 (u.s.) per hour.

This takes transportation out of the question for most of the rural area's.

I was at a Mondelez plant in northern brasil a couple of months ago and the plant actually own's over 200 school type buses to transport employees.

The gasoline prices are set by the government so with elections coming later this year I wouldn't expect them to allow any increases.

[DewDiligence]

Addendum to #msg-97274632: I would hold off on a commitment to Brazilian stocks or ETFs until after Brazil’s presidential election in October. If a conservative candidate wins (not likely, but possible), investing in Brazilian companies might become tenable. If Rousseff wins re-election, I would stay away (or sell short).