ARIA’s just-issued stock and option grants make a near-term buyout slightly less likely, IMO, because the BoD could be subject to unwanted SEC scrutiny if the awards were made while serious buyout discussions were underway. However, the BOD might make such grants anyhow, daring the SEC to find fault, which is why I’m saying the grants reduce the chance of a near-term buyout only slightly.
(Note that newly issued company grants to insiders transmit the opposite signal with respect to a possible buyout as the signal sent when insiders exercise existing options and hold them, as occurred with the CEO and CSO of ENTA.)