IMHO the run up before the offering had nothing to do with the offer, but was due to the effect of the share price finally getting "out of danger" from the pull of the double margin support cutoff at $5 (now split into $5 and 4.62 by the shares from the offering adding to the shares outstanding).
The SP got into the 5.4 to 5.5 range where it was relatively safe from being pulled back to the critical $5 level that would trigger margin sales (some fully automatic and in real time at IBs)and a futher plunge and then held down until margin calls were over. As those waiting for that zone to add into margin accounts started piling on, the SP began to take off. Encouraged by the momentum and increasing volume that the SP was going to get well away from the danger zone more piled on. And they almost certainly would have been right expect for the unexpected offering.
Whatever the reason for the rise, it added a good 25 to 30 cents to the offering price.
If you calculate dilution from the offering into the closing price of 5.25 you get about the drop that occurred. So IMHO it's reasonable to say that the market has done their dip in response to the offering. The SP dipped very similarly with the last offering and fully recovered in less than two weeks and then continued upwards. IMHO because investors (or those who bought in) realized that the offering (as now) was for a very good purpose which had highly positive implications (then it was to move to a higher exchange and expand activity on drug development as a response to getting Orphan Drug designation for Dengue from both the FDA and the EMA. Now it's for more rapid development for selected targets as an appropriate response to the remarkably good toxicity data in the dose ranging study. I would expect therefor for the SP to react much the same except that it may not go up quite as far due to the market wide problems. I would be very surprised if it doesn't get to the mid fives within a couple of weeks. JMHO
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