Replies to post #3628 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[longtermthinker]

With respect to the 8K filing...
Honestly, the timing of this filing release date
speaks to only one of two possible things, in my
sincere opinion. Either Powers and her minions are
blowing smoke, hoping to make it look like they really
believed their product would succeed when they actually knew
it would not - called, covering your ass; or, and in my opinion,
far more likely, the leaders of nwbo actually have gotten
strong indication from the fda that the trials will be allowed
to proceed, possibly on an expedited basis.
As to the first point, it is highly unlikely that anyone
would believe such a ruse, particularly if an fda announcement
comes directly on the heels of this filing.
It is also highly unlikely that the manufacturing partners
would be sucked into such a scheme, allowing themselves
to be held out to the public for scorn and ridicule.
I have seen numerous biopharma stocks implode on product
failure, but have never seen one go down to the dust after
providing such comprehensive substantiating evidence of
a belief, based on the data, in the product's success.
NWBO may be wrong about their product and approach, but
it sure looks like Powers and her professionals truly
believe they have something really big.

[foxhound02]

Everyone should keep in mind that Linda Powers is as deeply involved in Cognate as she is in Northwest, she is on the board of directors. I do not know her exact financial interest, but I would think very substantial. What you left out from the 8k are the statements on what happens to Northwest if it goes bust. Although details are lacking it seems that Cognate would absorb all remaining resources. So, in a sense Linda has a put option if the trials fail. Also, Cognate has a ton of options as part of the deal. If the trials are successful, these options will be worth orders of magnitude more than the cost of manufacturing. So, Linda has in this deal some very cheap out of the money call options in essence. There is nothing wrong with the arrangement, but one should not read in it any sort of signal about success other than what we already know, and I am long.

[FatCat_Banker]

I share your beliefs. I want it to be a bullish indicator. It could also be (for the sake of being a Devil's advocate) to keep investor's attention in the event of a continue. It's also hedging their bets ramping up production in Germany because they, and the Brits, have a less regulated system and DCVax-L/Direct can hit the markets sooner.

For a long investor, it's good to see. If you are in for the ICPT-esque prospects, it's reason to at least hope.

One thing is for sure, Linda is a bauce!

[ou71764]

John,

Your analysis is consistent with this scenario:

1. Good news is going to break on Monday morning.
2. Linda didn't want to "dilute" the good news with news of a dilution, so she issued that PR on Friday.

But it does raise the question on why the stock price was weak on Friday. Assuming someone got wind of news, there didn't seem to be a leak about a positive PR on Monday.

[flipper44]

John and Ou.



Ou, I did not see this coming so early -- you win. John, I agree it is a positive sign. I honestly believe that when this treatment hits, demand will be out of this world. Not just for brain cancer. I also believe that if Direct comes back with the results some of us expect, it too will have a compassionate use program -- a very large compassionate use program.

Remember everyone blaming Obama when we had that lack of vaccines a number of years back? And of course we all remember Dendreon. In fact, biotech in general is getting a rep for bad launches.

Not NWBO. Not on Linda's watch.

[BioInfo]

DCVax L had manufacturing facility so expansion is not a surprise, but Direct is a big surprise on major expansion there.i am very excited here.