Replies to post #42801 on Liquidmetal Technologies Inc (LQMT)

[Anax]

Great! Thank you very much!

I think that your assessment and information composition is totally right. And I like your market evaluation!

Thanks for sharing and best wishes

[Spartan]

For me the real interesting statistic was how many clamping cycles the new clamps can go through before breaking. Matches up closely with what LQMT listed in their blog.

However, I seriously doubt that we'll see any announcements until after the Visser arbitration is over.

[Watts Watt]

You are confusing the matrix band which wraps around the tooth, with the clamp, which holds the band in place while the cavity filling hardens.

Naturally the number of matrix bands, which are expendable, would number in the millions.

However, the spring clamps, which are re-usable, would naturally, never approach the numbers you show for the matrix bands.

Please go back to the drawing board and make some new conclusions to jump to.....

...Just saying....do your post right the first time.

[riese713]

Matrix band versus clamp. I don't have the ability to respond to Private Messages here. I have been informed the number for several hundred million Matrix band sales is different than the clamp itself, since the clamp is reused over and over again (96 cycles and then breaks as per the data sheet for the OLD clamp versus 300 cycles shown for the new clamp).

So...if this is the case...I am not sure how to estimate how many clamps are sold versus the Matrix band. Having said that...old clamps will also need to be replaced after they break (96 cycles on average).

I am just trying to make some projections so we can all get some ideas of potential revenue. I am open to any/all projections.

Any thoughts or ideas?

[LM2002]

riese713, your revenue figures are way off.

You are figuring your "royalty" estimate on the basis of the price Garrison charges their customers for the device. You have to figure LMT's margin / markup on the price it costs LMT to produce the clamp: not on what Garrison charges. Garrison also uses other materials besides the spring to manufacture the clamp... and then they add on their own hefty markup when selling the clamps to their customers.

Ogawa's blog on the canard estimates the cost to manufacture a single canard at about $56.50. There is enough alloy in a single canard to manufacture at least several dozen dental clamps. So if we use a conservative figure of 1 canard = the same amount of alloy in 3 dozen spring clamps (and that ratio is probably even higher than I estimated), LMT's approximate cost per spring clamp is only about $1.50.

If LMT marks up each clamp by 10% (the industry "standard" you reference), they will receive revenues of 15 & 1/2 cents a clamp, or approximately $2.6 million a year on 17.5 million clamps.

I think LMT has a good chance of earning some real revenue this year, but nowhere along the lines you estimated... although I do like your numbers better than mine. :-)