I really, largely agree with your assessment. This is the same judge that emcee'd BK I so it is entirely reasonable to think he will follow suit, this time around. I am of the opinion that Exide will act sooner than your projection, but I only think so because with a cold winter shaping up and Vernon re-open, the longer the span of improving numbers, the lower the impairment of debt which is one of the ways Exide benefits most from the expenses of a restructuring. If they act before the numbers show a strong recovery, they will tend to fare better and exit better. JMHO.
I think you need to consider an additional point, and that is the continuing threats of another... or, God forbid... permanent shutdown of Vernon. This ties to the broader enviro issue that I am sure the judge knows remain in focus from Exide kicking the can down the road during the last go 'round. This, to me, is the 800# gorilla, waiting in the wings, and I have NO CLUE how or even IF the court will consider this issue. I can only tell you that if it is ignored, again, we will see Exide under whatever new trading symbol it emerges filing another Q, a decade from now.
GLTA.
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