I think there is a reasonable chance of recovery for the common. The magnitude of recovery will depend, to a large degree, on the level of EBITDA that the company can achieve on a trailing twelve months basis by the end of the fiscal year (March). Given the December and March quarters are the seasonally strongest periods, a lot will depend on the company's performance in those quarters. Given the fiscal year doesn't end until March, I don't believe the company will present a POR until after the fiscal year end, but that is my opinion. I know others on this board have suggested differently.
There is a public filing from the last BK that details the analysis that the judge employed in determining the enterprise value of the company. If you read that filing, you'll see that the judge looked at three methods of valuation analysis: 1) comparable companies 2) M&A multiples 3) discounted cash flow. The first two explicitly incorporate EBITDA and the third relies on EBITDA to a significant degree (but also projections from the management team).
The company will likely push for a lower valuation than the creditors committee so there will be a wide range of estimates.
