Replies to post #13089 on American Airlines Group Inc (AAL)

[mrcarnita]

Very helpful! May I ask where you got the figures for the debt. Does this also include the amount owed to the unions?

[mystockpk2]

junkman...as much I would love for that formula
to work with a 81 % stock conversion redemption...WOW!
your missing some debt...Sec 8k states 4.95 billion but original papers have it at 7.65 to Hieps 8 billion....Its a head scratcher....

[PinkBu]

junkmanlong1, you posted this on another board. I will share with ihub as it looks like the formula makes sense:

AAMRQ distribution formula version 2

AAMRQ 394.2 million fully diluted outstanding shares
AAMRQ debt with VWAP discount (5.655 claims / 0.965 discount) = $5860 million
AAMRQ debt $5.860 Billion claims + 1.817 billion owed union = $7677 million
AAL 756 million outstanding shares
source sec 8k filing

AMR stakeholders get 72% of the new company
Source BK dockets
Subtract out the 3.5% initial and AMR stakeholders get 68.5% at the distribution periods.
[(AAL * 756 million * 68.5% ) – 7677 million ]/394.2 million
Simplified
(AAL * 1.314) – 19.47 = AAMRQ value
(25 * 1.314) – 19.47 = $13.38
To calculate shares
([(AAL * 1.314) – 19.47] / AAL) * number of AAMRQ shares = AAL shares

So if you have 1000 shares and the stock stay at $25 for the 120 day distribution period.
Initial distribution 3.5% of the common goes to AAMRQ stockholders
1000 * [(756 million * 3.5%) / 394.2] = 67 AAL shares
Then for the next 4 distributions at 30,60,90 and 120 days
For each distribution 1000 / 4 = 250 AAMRQ shares
@30 ([(25 * 1.314) – 19.47] / 25) * 250 AAMRQ shares = 134 AAL shares
@60 ([(25 * 1.314) – 19.47] / 25) * 250 AAMRQ shares = 134 AAL shares
@90 ([(25 * 1.314) – 19.47] / 25) * 250 AAMRQ shares = 134 AAL shares
@120 ([(25 * 1.314) – 19.47] / 25) * 250 AAMRQ shares = 134 AAL shares
If AAL stays at $25 and you had 1000 AAMRQ shares at the end of 120 days you should have 603 AAL shares
IMO..JML