Replies to post #40585 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[Hotrodder1]

Least we forget! New headquarters, new sales force. New European Headquarters.
Dr. Berger and Company are not, again not dumb people.
They know what they have.

[Euripides90]

Wish we could be more optimistic for short term, but other than what seems to have developed as a pattern there does not seem to be news that could spur this seriously right now...let's hope we're wrong, and when the company releases an update on ASH there's a bump.

Also wish I hadn't been proven right that "they" like to take this down to about 10% before allowing it back up:
I just hope they let it back up at least to over $5.05-25 soon,
if for no other reason than they can start again buying at today's low. I got caught up in this same thing last 1-2 weeks before unloading for a small profit above 5.30 so I should've known but now after the second time it seems a confirmed pattern.
Until some real news kicks it up once and for all.


"At this point might be smart to follow the big money movements and sell by around 5.25 and expect to rebuy a buck cheaper, rinse and repeat until recovering the losses then staying in buying low and forgetting about this completely til there is a nice wad of green."

WITH NEWS can hopefully soar above $7. and from there to anywhere based on the charts.

Frustrating to just try to ride the wave they're creating but this seems to be what's happening so I'll have to ride along best I can.

I DO believe in the work of the company, the life-saving product which does make me feel better than if it were a shoe factory,
but we are not doing charitable giving to sick people and neither
is Harvey Berger or other insiders, many of whom sold their shares at the top around $20.00 and who can blame them.

Let's hope this follows the pattern back UP -- and away.

[AmpleKind]

And we are left pacing in the waiting room for the FDA decisions.

But, to try for a more optimistic perspective, do remember that Ariad has other
assets, that will enter the valuation (113, "exciting" new molecule).

Right now there's a lot of pessimism and distress, and that blocks what would
be by now be a fairly good valuation for 113.

The way I see it, Ariad is currently two companies:

1. Development stage biotech with a very promising candidate in
clinical tests with strong positive indicators. There still the pipeline,
even if all but one drug is currently on the shelf.

2. A company with a drug in the market (in EU), and questions as to
the niche it will serve (in Eu/US), with the uncertainty hanging about
for months. Probability is very high that Iclusig will at the very least
have a place as the drug of last resort (a market that will by itself
justify a substantially higher pps). There's also the possibility that
the CV issues will be controlled, and this will increase Iclusig's value
substantially.

At this point the issues in 2. totally crush the promise of 1. This will change
as we get more information about 113 progress.